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What If...All These Polls Are Wrong?
October 29, 2008 8:41 AM
Is it possible that every one of these polls is wrong, that the numbers are wiggity wiggity whack?
Michael Abramowitz of the Washington Post gives voice to that notion, to the Obama campaign's deepest, darkest fear in “Accuracy of Polls a Question In Itself; Skeptics Challenge Assumptions Made.” And our friends at the ever-optimistic, straw-grasping RNC are sending it out.
There “appears to be an undercurrent of worry among some polling professionals and academics,” Abramowitz writes. “One reason is the wide variation in Obama leads: Just yesterday, an array of polls showed the Democrat leading by as little as two points and as much as 15 points. The latest Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll showed the race holding steady, with Obama enjoying a lead of 52 percent to 45 percent among likely voters.
“Some in the McCain camp also argue that the polls showing the largest leads for Obama mistakenly assume that turnout among young voters and African Americans will be disproportionately high. The campaign is banking on a good turnout among GOP partisans, whom McCain officials say they are working hard to attract to the polls.”
From 1989 until 1998, Marvel Comics ran a monthly series called “What If...?” in which it created whole new storylines that no one outside of the most extremist comic book geeks ever pondered.
“What if Spiderman Joined the Fantastic Four?” they asked.
Or...what if the Fantastic Four consisted of the Incredible Hulk, Ghost Rider, Wolverine, and Spiderman?
Yes, they managed 114 issues along those lines.
The looming question is whether What If All These Polls Are Wrong? will be seen as prescient academic wisdom (and believe me, a lot of us are taking the question seriously), or whether in retrospect these questions will be seen as just a political version of “What If Wolverine Had Killed the Hulk?”
- jpt
October 29, 2008 | Permalink | Share | User Comments (98)
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The polls are wrong. Just a few weeks ago there was a story that showed people say that they are voting for Obama when asked on the phone but when they were asked online, they voted differently.
Democrat for McCain/Palin"
...
Could that have been a FOX News story?
No polling firm uses online polling without the words "this is not a scientific survey." I doubt you are a Democrat.
_____________________________
And he/she is posting under more names than even a poll would allow.
Posted by: Just Vote | Oct 29, 2008 11:17:04 AM
Vanessa: Penn polls also gave it to Obama in primary, Hillary won by huge margin, even after watching 10k people parade for Obama.
Who knows about the polls? Everytime I read the pollsters sites, they too are scratching their heads, they say this election is different due to cell phones, racial questions, undecideds, likely voters vs. possible voters, etc. Some of the data coming out is contradictory ie: One poll got different answers, asking the same people who was best qualified?==more for McCain ...Who will you vote for? more for Obama. wierd.
Posted by: Deb | Oct 29, 2008 11:15:24 AM
This election is unprecedented. I believe the pollsters are underestimating the young-voter and African American turn-out and not factoring in the disenfranchised Republicans who don't have the enthusiasm to wait in the long lines.
Much of the polling is based off of voter models from the last election. I think it is safe to say, we can throw all those out the window.
Posted by: Just Vote | Oct 29, 2008 11:12:10 AM
Obama's motto is more like "by any means necessary."
He's sold his soul to win and he's going to owe a LOT of people a LOT of favors.
Posted by: jackson | Oct 29, 2008 11:07:09 AM
What if Obama didn't go back on his word on accepting campaign financing?
What if the media wasn't in the bag for Obama?
What if the Obama campaign didn't accept millions in illegal contributions from overseas?
What if the Obama campaign didn't rely on groups like ACORN to register anybody or anything with a pulse (or imaginary pulse)?
And, finally, WHAT IF in spite of all the above McCain still wins on election night? Does not Richard Daley of Chicago then become the absolute stupidest mayor in the country for allowing a powderkeg of one million bitterly defeated partisans to congregate a rally smack dab in the center of his city? The Illinois National Guard will then have to be called in to protect Obama's Greek columns from the rioting. Maybe even call in the Fanatstic Four, if the Change We Need starts getting real bad that night!
Posted by: topo2005 | Oct 29, 2008 10:58:40 AM
If Obama can’t even take care of his own neighborhood, how can he take care of our country?
Posted by: Steave Cuozzo | Oct 29, 2008 10:51:05 AM
Hillary supporter for McCain, Hillary would be very ashamed of your support for McCain and Palin, a person who goes against everything that Hillary stood for. Did you not listen to Hillary and what she stood for or did you just support her because she was a woman?
Posted by: James Parker | Oct 29, 2008 10:50:50 AM
Jenny--there is no arguing with you. You seem to make my counter points for me!
Posted by: cardinal | Oct 29, 2008 10:45:20 AM
Cardinal - No one cares about cars, houses, clothes, washed up terrorists (who now are college teachers training teachers), Etal.
Posted by: Jenny Rome Ga | Oct 29, 2008 10:42:26 AM
Thank you James PArker.. Very well stated post.
Geville - And McCain won't bring the draft back? How in the world is he going to get all those troops in volunteer for duty for the next 100 years. Humanitarian aid USUALLY does not involve getting blown up. NOT always but usually. Perhaps a few of Obama's Volunteer could go clean up New Orleans. they still have not recovered fro Bush and FEMA.
Posted by: Jenny Rome Ga | Oct 29, 2008 10:40:06 AM
E_DAY - 6: ELECTORAL COLLEGE EV POLLS
2008
Obama 364
McCain 157
Tie 17
2004
Bush 281
Kerry 236
Tie 21
State-by-State Polls Are What Matters And Always Predict The Winer.
Posted by: Steve_NJ | Oct 29, 2008 10:38:37 AM
Gallup poll 49/47. The drive-by media hype is just about to burst. Journalism dies in 2008. Please preserve our freedom and liberty from being destroyed by the radical far left :"FROM EACH ACCORDING TO HIS ABILITY. TO EACH ACCORDING TO HIS NEED". Socialism is just a step away from communism . Please cast your vote wisely.
Posted by: No-Marx-or- Mao | Oct 29, 2008 10:35:15 AM
"Obama will bring back the draft"
That is a given. However, it will not be for military purposes. Draftees will then be forced to do "humanitarian" work around the world. Barney Frank already has a 25% military budget cut planned.
Posted by: geevill | Oct 29, 2008 10:28:06 AM
The answer is simple:
If all the polls are wrong, we will have 4 more years of bad government.
Any questions?
Posted by: Nashville_fan | Oct 29, 2008 10:27:00 AM
For the sake of "fairness", Obama will bring back the draft, trust me. Charie Rangle has already tried to.
Posted by: cardinal | Oct 29, 2008 10:24:55 AM
There is a cussedness to American voters particularly when pushed around. It's come down to who they believe has pushed them most. Obama's camp knows this is true and if nervous, they are nervous about the in-the-face thuggery used throughout the campaign by their supporters and surrogates. Obama told them to do it, they did, and now it may be a roosting chicken on a certain Chicago doorstep.
The fact is at this point, no one knows how this election will turn out. What is better understood is that anyone who wins faces a significant backlash from the side that didn't and how well and fast that side gets reorganized determines the success or failure of the first 100 days of the next administration.
So the dirty tricks are now focused on creating the perception of the permanent disarray of the other camp. The code words such as 'party implosion' are to be seen along with the repetition of the names of prominent defectors. Two things are certain there: a losing party always implodes as it reorganizes for the midterms, and defectors are not tolerated well by either side including the one they defect to because no one trusts a traitor to their party.
The meanness of this campaign has at least another two years of life left and then another wave will begin. The thuggery will become more pronounced and up front as the news organizations left gasping for oxygen in the post election cut-off of the funds and ratings go hunting for stories on the new administration with insiders who expected favors begin to find themselves on the outside because they are no longer useful idiots.
Posted by: len | Oct 29, 2008 10:24:38 AM
Hey, I was flipping around last night and I found out that there is a tape about Obama at a PLO dinner or something. It is in the LA Times?? Why did we not hear about this on ABC?? I keep finding out that ABC is letting me down for breaking news!! What is the story about?? Why is it not on the news?? I might have to change stations!!
Posted by: doingmypart | Oct 29, 2008 10:23:46 AM
I voted for McCain the first time he ran, aand I am life-long democrat. I was open to him this time - until Palin and the attack ads, Obama's message told me how he was going to help me with two sons in college and third in soccer. The polls mean nothing to me. I won't be tricked again. I can't stomach the possiblity of draft for my sons. Yes I believe in God and Country - but are really any safer?
Posted by: soccer-college mom | Oct 29, 2008 10:21:47 AM
Oh Jake...Hahaha! You make me giggle! "...wiggity wiggity whack?"? Nice work! Plus, I LOVED your little laugh after the Ross Perot bit ("we are in deep voodoo") on GMA this morning!
Lord help us if the polls are wrong...But at least JPT will keep us smiling! Well, me anyway.
Posted by: Jodi | Oct 29, 2008 10:20:06 AM
Lol, Jake. You have a Peter Parker element to you. Props on the thread. Yeah what if came from the far reaches of imagination for hard core comic fans. It was entertaining but traditionalist saw it as a fun fad. I have to believe there are far too professionals with real jobs on the line to have done anything but due diligence when conducting these polls. I think the polls are correct but the question that is unanswered is about those undecideds. If they break for McCain it will be close but let us not forget Bab Barr and Ralph 'the mouth' Nader. McCain will lose but in bazzaro world he is clearly going to run away with this thing.
Posted by: Jake is da' man | Oct 29, 2008 10:18:57 AM
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