Poll Cats II, Two Days Out

"Gallup has completed it pre-election polling and all indications are that enough voters support Sen. Barack Obama to make him the next president of the U.S."

"The trend data clearly show Obama ending the campaign with an upward movement in support, with eight to 11 percentage point leads among likely voters in Gallup's last four reports of data extending back to Oct. 28. Obama's final leads among both registered voters and likely voters are the largest of the campaign..."

8 years of Republican power in the White House was enough!

Sleazy McCain campaign = Sleazy Bush/Cheney/Rove campaigns.

There was no change. Same old dirty politics from the Republicans.

Not the change anybody wanted.

Democratic landslide victory.

Just listening to Obama speech in Cinncinati with a great large excited crowd at football stadium!! Real excited supporters! So nice to see happy crowds for Obama!! I have had it with McCain negative hate mongering crowds!!

This Republican is voting Barack Obama - Joe Biden

Go Obama! Everyone get out an dvote!

If poll results are posted, Jake, I'd suggest you also post results from THE SAME POLL over a (previous)period of time in order to see the TREND in a particular poll. Trends are what's important, because each poll does have it's own bias, whether we want to admit it or not. So tell us: What were the Mason-Dixon numbers IN CONTEXT? Have Obama's numbers been going down?? Have McCain's been going up? Let us know, please. Thanks.

For what it's worth, all of those MD polls were within the margin of error.

Just released:

Final USA TODAY/Gallup estimate: Obama, 53%; McCain, 42% - 11 points

Obama has a good chance of winning Missouri. Over 250,000 have attend an Obama rally during the last few weeks in Missouri. More people would have attended if there had been more space.

Last night, about 40,000 people attended an Obama rally in Springfield, MO, the reddest area of Missouri.

About 20,000 people attended a Palin rally in Springfield, MO a few days earlier

kat

That is why I predict McCain will win Missouri, Indiana, and N. Carolina.... Read my post.

In it, I wrote that Jake Taper took the three states out of the 16 states that had McCain winning in the poll and disregarded the remaining 84% of wins. I also compared Mason Dixon to the CNN polls that had Obama wining in NC and OH with landslides. Profanity and expressions of racism have a longer shelf life around here than the presentation of facts.

In Virginia, Obama has gained six percentage points since a Sept. 29-Oct. 1 poll that showed a three-point McCain lead, 48%-45%. In the latest poll, it's Obama who leads by three, 47%-44%.
---------------------------
For VA, Mason Dixon and the Washington Post tend to be the most accurate.

While Mason Dixon tends to be a right leaning poll in general, I think the race is as close as they say here.

They are correct though, Obama is ahead and will take VA on Tuesday.

DJK,

Don't sweat it. Mason-Dixon are the ONLY battleground state polls where Obama doesn't hit 50. In all the others -- including the more recent ones (these MD numbers are nearly a week old) -- Obama's polling at 50 and above.

My prediction about the undecideds? They're mainly disaffected Republicans who don't want to vote Obama, but can't bring themselves to vote for McCain either. Over a quarter of them will stay home; of the rest who manage to drag themselves to the polls, at least of quarter will bail instead of waiting in the long lines. Of those who do vote, Obama will end up peeling off a third in "what the hell?" moments in the voting booth.

The likelihood of all the current undecideds suddenly breaking for McCain is about the same as my chances of winning $10 million.

MM " I tend toward polling averages . . ."

With polling averages in mind from the latest Real Clear Politics poll, Obama leads in Ohio with a 4.2 lead. McCain and Obama are pretty much tied in the other two states, with McCain having an insignificant lead of 0.7 in MO and Obama having another insignificant lead of 0.3.

To all the confused McCain supporters, the election day is not and never will be November 5th 2008, it is November 4th. Stop suppressing the vote.

McCain will win in a landslide.

Jake, isn't it newsworthy that, less than 48 hours before Election Day, Obama today reached his highest rating in the RCP average of national polls?

That's pretty spectacular, you know, also from a historical viewpoint.

Kim: "In the future, look and see if you can see
a single soldier or police officer in uniform when you see
Obama. Why? ...

Why would I make this up?"

Obama went out of his way to get photo ops with troops - shaking hands, shooting hoops, we all saw this.

Go to google image search and look for Obama police and you get pages of pictures of Obama glad handing troops, police officers, police chiefs, etc.

Are you lying or did you really accept this nonsense without question? And Obama is the one accused of having a cult like following. Why are YOU making this up?

For example, on the 31
st.

A new SurveyUSA poll in Pennsylvania shows Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain, 51% to 44%.

Your search skills leave something to be desired, JR. Keep searching. The truth shall set you free.

Stick to what you know JTP. Those polls were from 28/29. Immediately after, Obama hit the Infomercial got momentum going the other way for at least a few days. Also, MD is consistently more Pro-McCain in house effects. We don't know if they are correct or not, but it's worth mentioning.

kat

I tend towards the polling averages. They show the trend like no other. I predict McCain will win N. Carolina, Missouri, and Indiana. They are all close though Obama may upset.

Stick to what you know JTP. Those polls were from 28/29. Immediately after, Obama hit the Infomercial got momentum going the other way for at least a few days. Also, MD is consistently more Pro-McCain in house effects. We don't know if they are correct or not, but it's worth mentioning.

Investor's Business Daily/TIPP

National
Obama 43, McCain 40

wow, jcarob, the Investor's Business Daily poll, how could I have missed that?

hahahahahahaha

Gosh and everybody else is paying attention to ABC, CBS, CNN, Zogby, what fools they are...