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PEBO Provides Stimulus Details on Where and When the Jobs Will Be

January 10, 2009 9:41 AM

Twenty-six thousand jobs in mining.

Eleven thousand jobs in utilities.

408,000 in manufacturing.

And 244,000 jobs in government.

In his weekly radio/Youtube address released this morning, President-elect Obama presents a report on the stimulus package detailing how many jobs would be created or saved by the plan, and where exactly the jobs would be.

The current economic crisis, the President-elect says, "is an extraordinary challenge, which is why I’ve taken the extraordinary step of working – even before I take office – with my economic team and leaders of both parties" on the stimulus package.

The report, put together by his nominee for Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Dr. Christina Romer, and the vice president-elect’s Chief Economic Adviser, Dr. Jared Bernstein, projects an increase in Gross Domestic Project of 3.7 percent by the fourth quarter of 2010 if the stimulus package becomes law.

"The U.S. economy has already lost nearly 2.6 million jobs since the business cycle peak in December 2007," the report says. "In the absence of stimulus, the economy could lose another 3 to 4 million more. Thus, we are working to counter a potential total job loss of at least 5 million."

Even with the stimulus package, the Obama economists are projecting an unemployment rate in the 4th quarter of 2010 of 7 percent. Without the package, it would be 8.8 percent, they project, with an additional  3 to 4 million jobs lost. The stimulus package, the economists predict, would create or save 3,675,000 jobs.
 
Mr. Obama says the report indicates that the stimulus package:

  • will "(s)ave or create three to four million jobs" -- that number is more than the 2 million he initially pledged, and more than the 3 million he has been projecting more recently;
  • will see "(m)ore than 90 percent of the jobs created" in the private sector. "Most of the remainder would be professionals on the front lines serving the public whose jobs are saved from state and local budget cuts" -- this is different from his previous projection that 80 percent of the jobs would be in the private sector and his description of the public sector jobs has a different description of the government jobs, likely to pushback against GOP concerns that Mr. Obama is pledging the creation of 600,000 new government jobs;
  • will create "nearly half a million jobs" by investing in clean energy and "nearly 400,000 people" would be put to work investments in infrastructure.

These numbers are based on very specific projections in the study, though the report also states: "It should be understood that all of the estimates presented in this memo are subject to significant margins of error. There is the obvious uncertainty that comes from modeling a hypothetical package rather than the final legislation passed by the Congress."

The economists project the following jobs that will be created, per stimulus section, either directly or indirectly:

  • energy 459,000
  • infrastructure 377,000
  • health care 244,000
  • education 250,000
  • protecting vulnerable 549,000
  • state relief 821,000
  • making work pay tax cut 505,000 (all indirectly)
  • business tax incentives 470,000 (all indirect)

Or more specifically, per industry:

  • Mining 26,000
  • Construction 678,000
  • Manufacturing 408,000
  • Wholesale Trade 158,000
  • Retail Trade 604,000
  • Information 50,000
  • Financial Activities 214,000
  • Professional and Business Services 345,000
  • Education and Health Services 240,000
  • Leisure and Hospitality 499,000
  • Other Services 99,000
  • Utilities 11,000
  • Transportation and Warehousing 98,000
  • Government 244,000

As for timing, the projections are:

  • 46 percent of the jobs in energy, infrastructure, health and education would come by the end of 2009, with 41 percent by the end of 2011.
  • 83 percent of the "protecting the vulnerable" jobs would be by 2009, 17 percent by 2011.
  • 48 percent of the state relief jobs by 2009, 48 percent by 2011.
  • 83 percent of the business tax incentives by 2009, 28 percent by 2011
  • and 67 percent of the making work pay tax cut by 2009, 37 percent by 2011.

In the video address, Mr. Obama also repeats pledges he made earlier in the week:

  • doubling the production of alternative energy in the next three years,
  • modernizing more than 75 percent of federal buildings,
  • improving the energy efficiency of two million American homes,
  • transitioning to a nationwide system of computerized medical records,
  • equipping tens of thousands of schools with 21st century classrooms, labs and computers and
    laying down miles of new broadband lines.

He also says he will work on: bipartisan extensions of unemployment insurance and health care coverage; a $1,000 tax cut for 95 percent of working families; and assistance to help states avoid harmful budget cuts in essential services like police, fire, education and health care.

- jpt

January 10, 2009 | Permalink | Share | User Comments (100)

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We would not be in this situation if we weren't sending our work overseas and then letting the Mexicans take the jobs we have left!

Posted by: Bambi | Jan 14, 2009 12:01:10 PM

If we look at the history of “protecting vulnerable” programs like food stamps, they have been very successful at infusing the local economy and helping low income workers get on their feet. During the last recession the state where I live, Oregon, had one of the nation’s highest hunger rates, so the state made changes in the food stamp program. (As part of welfare reform in the mid-1990s, Congress gave states more flexibility in setting food stamp rules.) Oregon’s high hunger rate was partly due to hunger among low-wage working families. The state changed the income limit for food stamps from 130 percent of poverty ($22,321 for a family of three) to 185 percent of poverty ($31,765 for a family of three). The state kept control over program costs and expanded ways to help feed families transitioning off cash assistance into jobs. This Federal funded program brought an additional $23 Million per month into Oregon’s economy. These additional dollars circulate throughout our economy, raising incomes for a broad swath of people, not just those receiving food stamps. And, according to USDA estimates, hunger among Oregon households fell from 5.8 percent to 3.8 percent.

Posted by: idahogirl | Jan 13, 2009 12:32:25 PM

From what I'm hearing the president elect is preparing the people of the united states for change! Change doesn’t come easy, or without a little pain, but when necessary it has a huge impact on those affected! People need to realize that we have been rapped up in "what's best for the individual," and not "what's best for the whole." this is the mind set the entrepreneur! Business on a small scale considers profit and losses, I see this in every question posed in the post. Everyone is worried about losing; can you imagine the loss if the president elect did nothing? Everyone might as well learn the speak Chinese! Keep doing what your doing President elect, we support you!

Posted by: Antonio Daniels | Jan 13, 2009 11:47:13 AM

AMERICA, are you finally paying attention? BHO just wants a "Splash" of the taxpayers money. I can't believe this is happening.

Posted by: Carol Alabama | Jan 12, 2009 6:36:05 PM

Last year Mexicans sent over 650 million dollars from their U.S. jobs back to Mexico.Other foreigners sent money out of the country too.So what is this 800 Billion dollars supposed to do for Americans?Who will work?Who will get a credit card or pay a mortgage?So far it has been all about private company bailouts and nothing for the little American.

Posted by: steven divver | Jan 12, 2009 12:03:02 PM

It simply ain't gonna work! Out national debt is worth more than what the country is worth now and is getting worse by the minute.

Posted by: Mike in Santa Fe | Jan 12, 2009 11:45:23 AM

Most of the American public understands the new administration has been handed a country and a government in financial turmoil - dire straights.

They understand completely that things are not going to be rosy or easy for the next while due to the tremendous hole dug by the previous administration.

Only a few slow on the draw types will be dull enough not to see this, and they will likely be individuals with their own biased agenda.

Posted by: pefros | Jan 12, 2009 1:58:19 AM

He's got one year to fester up before the American public will get fed up. I suspect his honeymoon will be rather short.

Posted by: JOE | Jan 12, 2009 1:49:55 AM

America: Good luck.

But I fear for you because Obama is an idiot. He will make a terrible situation worse. Start looking for your wheelbarrow to bring the dollars for a couple of loafs of bread. We are heading in that direction.

Thanks Obama.

Posted by: teo | Jan 12, 2009 1:08:33 AM

For all of you that are concerned about our future and keep bringing up the past it would be good to get some facts. Google UI rates from 1950 -2009 and terms of US presidents then match them. What you will find is we had the lowest UI rates under President Eisenhower and he built the national highway system. The 2nd lowest UI rates were under President Johnson's New Deal. The very Highest UI rates - 6 of the 8 YEARS of President Reagan's presidency were at 8% and above with many month's at 10%!!!! I remember those years - inflation out of control - cost me 13.5% mortgage rate when I bought my house. However, it was also under President Reagan that the EITC Tax Credit program was beefed up so it really helps working low income people.
As for these government jobs - well in NYS most road jobs and other construction projects are put out for bid to private contractors!! So it will be private employers who will really see the money and they have to pay their workers state rates so the workers - even if they aren't unionized - have really good jobs. This is good - workers getting real money - not just paid wages where they are eligible for Food Stamps while the bosses and stockholders make out like bandits. Lockheed Martin is a large private company that almost all of it's money comes from government contracts. So look deeper everyone and see where the money will really go.
If you have lost your job because of foreign competition there is a federally funded retraining program already in place for you. It's called TRA - Trade Readjustment Act. Your Department of Labor should be able to help you to put in the petition for training for all the workers laid off due to foreign competition in your company. This program has been around for decades and it works but it takes effort on the part of the workers to get the TRA petition approved. I've known people who have gotten 2 year college degrees because of TRA.
Everyone who is complaining about the government's stimulus package and government programs & FDR's New Deal need to think twice if theyare on UI or Social Security or has someone they love being able to live because of UI or Social Security. It was under FDR's watch that got UI and Social Security in place. Both programs have relieved a lot of suffering in this country.

Posted by: Pat | Jan 11, 2009 4:34:22 PM

That's all we need, more government jobs. Government jobs are like riding the gravy train....lots of money, little work expected, although lots of **** kissing required.

Posted by: bo | Jan 11, 2009 1:38:54 PM

"the one" doesn't have a clue as to how the average American lives. He also doesn't understand economics.

Posted by: bo | Jan 11, 2009 1:37:08 PM

Stop whinning!!!!

Let President-elect do his JOB!!!!

Posted by: sisterdearest09 | Jan 11, 2009 1:36:56 PM

I agree, the naysayers need to quit complaining and just get in the handout line with the rest of the freeloaders.

Posted by: Bo | Jan 11, 2009 1:35:03 PM

How much taxpayer money will Obama pump into ACORN? I mean, he owes them a ton..
......as does Franken. It would be money
well-spent, a gracious tribute to his
roots.....the roots that nurtured and
produced this mighty political oak
tree, which has towered over mundane
legislators to win its place in the
sun, to serve us, to protect us....
......zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.


Posted by: grizzly bare | Jan 11, 2009 2:12:44 AM

"So Bush not only added record numbers to the national debt, he and the Republicans also collected more taxes than Clinton. Good to know that."

Thats a function of spending. Which is a separate issue. The original poster incorrectly stated the effect of the Bush tax cuts- there was a large increase in GDP and in tax revenue, even with the enormous disruption of 9/11.

"The people with mutual funds are largely the middle class mentioned so frequently during the last election. This is the money that was slow to move and ended up paying the profit taking of the people who gained from the sell off. Make no mistake, some people benefited handsomely from the sell off."

This paragraph really make me think you know nothing about this issue.

Thanks for helping with that reference to the middle class- I thought I had heard them mentioned somewhere. You might also tell Barak that they own stock. Apparently it is a big surprise to him to find out that investors are scary nasty people who need to be stopped from moving their own money.

Posted by: BertieW | Jan 10, 2009 11:14:14 PM

Sorry Burt your analysis is off.

The people who do hold a lot of individual stocks are the very wealthy. They are the ones who bailed on the stock market early and continued to sell it out towards the crash.

The people with mutual funds are largely the middle class mentioned so frequently during the last election. This is the money that was slow to move and ended up paying the profit taking of the people who gained from the sell off. Make no mistake, some people benefited handsomely from the sell off.

The high-end wealthy (the Bush elite) made off like bandits. The middle class took the hit.

Posted by: pefros | Jan 10, 2009 10:58:27 PM

"As you can see much more revenue is collected under Bush than under Clinton"

So Bush not only added record numbers to the national debt, he and the Republicans also collected more taxes than Clinton. Good to know that.

Here's how much Bush and the Republicans Congress added on to the national debt each year.

$421 Billion (2002)
$555 Billion (2003)
$596 Billion (2004)
$554 Billion (2005)
$574 Billion (2006)

Is it any wonder the country is now in such dire financial straights?

Bureau of the Public Debt, United States Department of the Treasury.

Posted by: pefros | Jan 10, 2009 10:53:33 PM

"How does the stock market 'crash'? Well, the people with a lot of shares start selling them. Why? To make as much money as possible.

Who loses? Everybody else who had only their pitiful little amount of shares and didn't see what the big shareholders were about to do."

If you never sold your shares you didnt 'lose' anything.

If the rich sold so much stock who could have bought it? Only someone who had a lot of money- ie another rich person who disagrees about the future value of the stock. So there are still probably just as many rich guys in your stock position after the selling.

Almost no one owns just individual stocks (yeah, I know you are the one guy). Usually what they have is a mutual fund or a number of mutual funds that would move individual stock positions for them. So you could be moving in and out of things everyday, just as much as a 'rich guy' and not know it.

Essentially your entire analysis is off.

Posted by: BertieW | Jan 10, 2009 10:46:12 PM

"at least the Obama steps are in the right direction - towards more sustainable energy, more efficient power grids, better vehicles, more power efficient homes and buildings, protecting our river and water systems . . . and so on."

You have trouble with your eyesight or your understanding Bert.

Posted by: pefros | Jan 10, 2009 10:42:21 PM

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