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Scenes From a Stimulus Battle, Part 4
January 27, 2009 4:02 PM
House Republicans left their meeting with President Obama today largely opposed to the stimulus bill that the House will vote upon tomorrow.
But some members of the GOP leadership expressed optimism that after the bill is changed in the Senate -- where the minority party, by design, has more influence -- they may be able to vote for it in its second incarnation.
The meeting went something like the following, according to multiple attendees:
After Rep. Sue Myrick, R-NC, delivered the opening prayer, President Obama talked about how bad the economy is and that it is deteriorating rapidly.
Mentioning how Caterpillar and Microsoft recently announced layoffs, the president said the stimulus is just one leg in a multi-legged stool to get economy going. Other legs include getting credit lines moving, cleaning out troubled assets, restoring confidence to lenders and dealing with the housing market more aggressively. The idea being that the stimulus bill is just the first step.
"I would love to not have to spend this money," the president said, underlining that he has no interest in increasing the size of government just to increase the size of government.
But, he said, he has talked to many economists who told him almost uniformly that they needed to get a stimulus bill up and running as soon as possible to avoid double-digit unemployment, thus they put together a package with both direct spending and tax cuts.
Mentioning conservative economist Martin Feldstein, the chief economic adviser to President Ronald Reagan, Obama said this spending will have a more simulative affect than will tax credits. For every dollar of spending, we get 1.5 dollars' worth of stimulus, he said. For every dollar of tax cuts, we get 75 cents' worth of stimulus.
The president noted that House Democrats had included some provisions they opposed that Republicans want, including small business provisions and the ability for businesses to transfer their losses from year to year.
Acknowledging that some of the spending cannot be done in two or three years, the president said that he will offer a budget that makes some very tough choices.
"Everyone will have to get a haircut," he said.
The president insisted he doesn’t want to create programs that will last forever. He reiterated that he had no pride of authorship -- that a good idea is a good idea.
The president said if there’s a better way to do tax cuts for a small business he’ll look at it. The spending is what it is, but it's important to not focus on one small part of the immense legislation because we should not be playing politics with the bill. There are parts of the bill he thinks could be improved, but that will have to happen after tomorrow.
Rep. Dave Camp, R-Mich., asked the first question, pushing for tax cuts that he said would move money into the economy more quickly.
The president said that if there are new ideas that he hasn't seen, he would like to talk about them. But on the issue of offering tax cuts to people who pay payroll and other taxes but who don't pay income taxes -- refundability -- Obama said there is simply a philosophical difference between Republicans and Democrats, and he would not compromise on that issue. Tax relief for some working families must come from payroll so even families who don’t pay income taxes get relief and they will spend it.
"Feel free to whack me over the head because I probably will not compromise on that part," the president said.
Obama said that there will be time to beat him up and a time for politics.
"I understand that and I will watch you on FOX News and feel bad about myself," he joked.
Rep. Pete Roskam, R-Ill., told the president that he won the presidency by rising above "Republicans" and Democrats" but that House Democrats are not living up to the Obama standard , he said. They have written a bill that spends more on re-sodding the National Mall than small business tax relief.
The president said if we can do more small business tax relief, we should do it, but I am just as concerned about the long term impact of tax cuts as I am about the long-term impact of spending.
"The National Mall is kind of important," the president said, somewhat jokingly, prompting laughs.
Rep. Cliff Stearns, R-Fla., asked the president to re-think his decision to delay the transition to digital TV.
I have no ideological problem with that, the president said, but I have been told that a lot of people's TVs will go dark. People like their televisions to work, and added that he wants the transition to work as fast as is possible.
Rep. Kevin Brady, R-Texas, received some applause after asking if the president could assure the room that this stimulus will not be an excuse to raise taxes and have wasteful spending.
Spending can sometimes be like closing the barn door after the horse has already left, President Obama said. This recession is different, he said. It's deeper and global. "Nobody is more worried about the deficit and the debt than me. I will be judged by the legacy I have left behind. I don’t want to leave our children with a legacy of debt. I am inheriting an annual yearly debt of over 1 trillion."
"At the pace we are going, we are doing irreparable damage to our economy," said the president. "We are going to have to make some very painful choices. We will present a budget with a realistic approach to eliminate debt, and bring down spending."
Brady's fellow Texas Republican Jeb Hensarling then made a passionate appeal for the president to focus on reducing the national debt.
President Obama agreed, but said these are extraordinary circumstances. "We have to pass this bill," he said.
Rep. Todd Akin, R-Mo., challenged some of the economists' underlying assumptions about the merits of government spending stimulus effect versus tax cuts. He proposed capital gains tax cuts and tax cuts on dividends to give the people who create jobs the ability to invest in the economy and create jobs.
Obama disagreed, saying most economists say we really need government spending in this unique circumstance to fill the hole create by economic loss.
"I think we can find some common ground on the tax side," the president said. "I think we can lower the corporate tax rate," especially if he and the Congress can close some loopholes that corporations take advantage of. "Lets close the loop holes, push aside the special interests, and we could lower the corporate tax rate," he said.
Rep. Tim Murphy, R-Penn., asked about health care, prompting the president to say that we have to have cost controls in health care and that he looks forward to hearing Murphy’s ideas.
Said Rep. Roscoe Bartlett, R-Md.: "Mr. President, I probably come at this from a slightly different perspective. I remember when FDR beat Hoover in 1932. So I remember the Great Depression very well. I don't remember any of the many government programs affecting the course of the Depression. Government programs didn't work then, I don't know why we think they would work now. Mr. President, I think our obsessive borrowing has fully mortgaged my kids and my grandkids. Now we're working on mortgaging my two great-grandkids. Mr. President, I think it's more than a little bit selfish to try to solve our economic problems which we created by burdening future generations yet to be born." *
This prompted applause.
The only reason I am pursuing this plan is because if we don’t get the economy moving again soon, the situation future generations will inherit will be worse, the president said.
"Thank you for your outreach and the spirit in which you came here," said Rep. Mike Pence, R-Ind., the House GOP Conference Chair. "You mentioned that this bill had been negotiated in the House. Let me make it clear that there has been no negotiating in the House."
Democrats have shut them out of the process, he said, to applause.
Said Pence, "we promise that we will pray for you every day and the door of this conference will be open to you."
The most applause the president got came when he said he would extend Q&A for five minutes and make the Senators wait.
-- jpt
* This paragraph has been edited to mesh with Rep. Bartlett's recollection of his full statement.
January 27, 2009 | Permalink | Share | User Comments (34)
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We are going down the same road here in Canada. Not as much ($184B over 3 or 4 years), but, were not as big. Its demoralizing actually, most of the stimulus aimed at"shovel" projects - infrastructure as a means of stemming price deflation further.
The problem, as i see it, with any kind of government spending (during good times or bad.....don't matta) is that government cannot create wealth as it must coercively take from one group of people to be able to spend anything on another group. In other words, since government cannot produce anything of value as its actions are absent any market exchange, it is a net consumer of value, and must therfore, take from productive areas of the economy the resources it needs to provide the "stimulus" to unproductive areas of the economy.
Its a beautiful thing actually, because we see those that benefit from the redistribution, but, we never see those that lose. That is because the burden is spread out across the entire tax base in the form of increased marginal taxes, or, increased debt. People will therefore perceive overall the illusion of a wealth effect. Putting it another way, its not that people think the government can spend their money better than they can. Rather its that the majority of people believe that the government can spend OTHER peoples money ON THEM better than they can. Its how socialism is able to persist in the context of what most think or believe is a "free" society.
I watch and hear whats going on in your country and I am saddened knowing that the last outpost of free and unfettered exchange of resources is quietly disappearing. The power house of economic liberty is dying a slow death and most don't even know it.
Those that want the stimulus fear the reckoning of irresponsible government and wreckless FED policy. They want to keep drinking the coolaid at a party they don't ever want to end because they know that the hangover is going to be brutal.
Those that understand the true economic connections between government actions and the people it supposedly represents know that we must and inevitably will (as history has shown) go through the correction, this period of redemption, before things get any better.
During those trying times, I wish you all the best.
Posted by: pareto | Jan 30, 2009 6:10:36 PM
The problem with the Republicans policies have not been the tax-cuts. The problem is that government spends too much. You can't cut taxes and not cut spending. Bush cut taxes but doubled spending. that leaves us with even more debt. Anyone with brain realizes that you can't dig your way out of a hole. You can't spend your way out of debt. We will eventually have to pay up. There is no way for us to fix this recession. The market is correcting itself. The Federal reserve has been lowering interest rates by injecting the systems with fiat money since it was created. The bubble has finally collapsed. We know must let the market correct itself. Stimulus bills will only blow air into the bubble. This won't fix the problem. That is like blowing air into a balloon that has already popped. The stimulus bill will only hurt the economy and pro-long the recession.
We are mortgaging our children and there children and there children's children.
Our politicians spend too much money. We are in massive debt.
Posted by: GBurr | Jan 30, 2009 5:12:12 PM
uh: We got into this situation when people bought things they couldn't actually afford. That's what caused the bubble. Now folks are arguing the solution is to get people buying things they can't afford again. You're trying to "re-inflate" the bubble, which is lunacy.
The bubble is artificial prosperity. It's an illusion. It's created by the Fed mismanaging interest rates and making it cheap for banks to over-lend. People in houses/cars/clothes for which they can't truly afford to pay is not the foundation for a stable economy. And when these people default on their loans, it hits all of us to some extent. That's what's going on right now.
But when our government eventually defaults on its debts, from its overspending, EVERYONE WILL PAY A HUGE PRICE. You think this is bad? You think the Great Depression was bad? Wait til China stops buying our debt and demands to be repaid.
The real solution is to SUCK IT UP. Cut spending and live within our means for once. For a few years, times would be tough. There is simply no way to avoid some unpleasantness. But if we try to spend our way out of this, it will last a decade. Historical examples from around the world prove this to be the case.
And by the way, this isn't a Republican or Democrat argument. It's a common sense argument, which is why neither party will endorse it. No one wants to cut spending, and no one wants to address the issue of the Fed.
Posted by: gb8898 | Jan 28, 2009 5:58:26 PM
How can you stimulate a dying market with less spending? The market is in trouble because consumers reduced spending. Will tax cut alone solve the problem? I believe people will save those extra tax returned money instead of spending them. Moreover, if they spend, they will buy Chinese goods instead of American's products because they are cheaper. How will 14 millions Americans who are unemployed right now be benefit from tax cut? How can they pay health insurance for their families? Sorry! I do not buy Republican's solution!
Posted by: uh | Jan 28, 2009 5:10:16 PM
Remember when Cheney said that "Reagan proved deficits don't matter?" Well Bush proved that they actually do. Excessive debt--on the personal, corporate, and governmental levels--got us into this mess. More debt is not going to get us out.
There is no pain-free way to get out of the mess we're in. Tax cuts and spending increases might both help, but only if we do it in a manner that doesn't increase the deficit. One way to do that would be to stop funneling wealth into overseas misadventures and start investing in our nation's infrastructure.
To those people who suggested tariffs--they can't possibly help. Tariffs would be met with retaliatory tariffs, killing our exporters and driving up the cost of living. They tried tariffs in the Great Depression (Smoot-Hawley tariff) and it crashed the economy.
We need to let housing prices fall to sustainable levels. We need to let insolvent institutions go bankrupt so that they can be rebuilt in a way that makes economic sense. We need *lower* tariffs to reduce the cost of living and help our exporters. We need to stop running a trillion dollar overseas empire. It's what brought the Soviets down, and now we're following right behind them.
Posted by: Vergilius | Jan 28, 2009 2:49:26 PM
If this kind of spending would actually work now, it would work ALL THE TIME. Economic laws do not change based on the condition of the economy.
However, if an economy flourishes during good times with little government intervention, as Mr. Obama has admitted, then an economy corrects itself faster during a downturn with little government intervention. And indeed, recent studies (check UCLA) have concluded the Great Depression was prolonged by years due to government trying to "fix" things.
Even Henry Morgenthau, the Treasury Secretary under FDR, determined this to be the case. He testified to Congress: "We are spending more money than we have ever spent before, and it does not work. I want to see this country prosperous. I want to see people get a job. I want to see people get enough to eat. We have never made good on our promises. I say after eight years of this administration we have just as much unemployment as when we started ... and an enormous debt, to boot."
This is a rather obvious fact to anyone with common sense. We got into this mess by becoming overextended financially. We will not get out of the mess by repeating the process.
And Rep. Bartlett had it exactly right: We are burdening our children and grandchildren with our selfishness. We don't want to swallow the bad-tasting medicine, admit our mistakes, and do what's right. We want a "quick fix" (even though there's no such thing in economics or government action) so we don't have to assume responsibility. And we want to pay for the "quick fix" by shifting the financial obligations to later generations.
It is reckless and immoral.
Posted by: gb8898 | Jan 28, 2009 1:53:08 PM
Spend less, tax less.
Posted by: crow | Jan 28, 2009 1:38:43 PM
@Stefanie: I'd suggest spending less money, not moving into houses you can't afford, and making more money with your business. That's the best path to personal wealth and financial security. Stop looking to the government for handouts.
Posted by: Dary | Jan 28, 2009 1:07:43 PM
The reason this will only hurt the economy is because the government doesn't produce anything. You need to produce a good in order to exchange it for another good. The government can only take money from those that are producing in order to fund it's operations. All they are doing is transfering where the money gets spent, rather than actually creating any wealth or jobs. Any spending is at the expense of someone else. Or they can borrow the money at interest from another country and create another artificial boom, but one day the bills will come due. The scary thing is that our government is not smart enough to know where to properly invest the money since the market is made up of billions of people's emotions, so this spending is most likely to be malinvested.
Posted by: Ian | Jan 28, 2009 1:06:49 PM
Injecting $800 billion into the economy won't save anything for me, an average lower class citizen.
Why can't we start by CUTTING SPENDING?
It sure seems like if we spent LESS money, we'd be better off.
What does an average lower class american citizen know anyway?
Posted by: Chelsea | Jan 28, 2009 12:54:05 PM
OK -I have two major issues here that I see most consumers are having and I want to know what the White House is going to do about it!
1. MORTGAGES
I have a mortgage (4 years now - 30yr fixed) and have requested a modification from National City - turned in all required paperwor - of course I never got any answers. I have had a pay reduction of 20% at work, hours reduced, benefits cut/reduced. I cannot get child support to save my life and I have a new medical issue that started this year - of all years! I pay my mortgage each month - I am only asking for a modification - no bailout - nothing free, just some help! It seems no one can get any help out there! I am not normally a blogger, but I have been forced to review them and I am finding that everyone is having problems getting the help we were promised.
2. CREDIT CRUNCH ISSUES
I received 5 notices from Chase lowering credit. Accounts had perfect payment history.
Personal & business accounts:
$15k bus. reduced to $9k; $10k bus. reduced to $6k; $4k pers. reduced to $2,500; $500 pers. closed – owed $0; $8k pers. reduced to $2,500. This effects me personally and in my business!
Letters stated the same thing: "balance is too close to credit limit".
Credit limits reduced to within a $200 of balance. Destroys credit score- brings balance to credit ratio all the way up & my FICO is affected by something I didn’t do - punished for on-time payments. What happened to credit LIMIT? Why give a credit limit of X, if you can only use Y?
I have also had limits reduced by AMEX, one of my business cards went from $36k to $6 - right above the balance, yet again!
This practice is destroying people's credit! I pay ontime and my FICO is shot!
How are we supposed to survive and maintain our small businesses - what happened to this plan?????
Posted by: Stefanie | Jan 28, 2009 12:00:12 PM
i think obama's confidence on his stimulus bill is a great thing. to succeed, one has to believe.
Posted by: Imee | Jan 28, 2009 12:51:25 AM
" The money designated for the Mall was about 20 million tops for mostly repairs and upkeep, including lawn maintenance. "
Oops- It was 200 million, not 20. Too bad it became a concession to get rid of with the GOP.
Posted by: kathy | Jan 28, 2009 12:48:44 AM
Their stupid stimulus plan that won't work. It's easy...stop spending, and big big tax breaks and incentives to build, start businesses and to expand. Starting a new WPA isn't going to create real jobs, it will just keep the incompetents off the streets until the defective bridge is done being built. I say incompetents because the idiot Robert Reich said, skilled labor and white construction workers need not apply
Posted by: rachel | Jan 27, 2009 10:33:32 PM
I fail to see the problems getting solved with anything coming from Washington D.C. we have little textile industry in this country. That hole has been filled by construction across the nation but the morgage crunch stopped that. We need to raise tariffs on imported goods and reduce the cost of living for the average family Or reduce there monthly morgage so maybe they can afford to work at a lower paying job and keep there homes. Give us goverment loans of 40 years with low interest instead of a stimulus pack. If all the money to bail out the banks and this current stimulus pack was put toward that 1.5 trillion dollars could have bought alot of troubled loans from the banks to a goverment loan and the banks could have stabalized themselves
Posted by: Alijandro | Jan 27, 2009 10:31:21 PM
Why do the republicans continue to demand more tax cuts when its been proven beyond a shadow of a doubt they do not work. We've been cutting taxes and "getting gov't off our backs" for over 25 years and the end result has been a economic disaster of historic proportions. The gov't is not our enemy, bad leadership in gov't like the republicans have provided this country, is the enemy. Mr President stop wasting your time trying to work with these losers, let them sit on the side of the road and whine, after all truth be told they want you to fail.
Posted by: fool me once | Jan 27, 2009 9:01:47 PM
I think the banks should get more stimulus for office renovations and jet planes. I was in WAL MART today, looking for a fifteen hundred dollar vaste basket, and a six thousand dollar shower curtain. But I cant find one in Wal Mart.
Posted by: Joe | Jan 27, 2009 8:24:08 PM
Im a little confused how is the tax cuts gonna work? The way im reading this its a payroll tax cut not a tax rebate check. So that means ill get approx $10 more per week on my check if its $500 per person over a year. Wow that will sure get the economy rolling fast....lol what a joke. If that is the way it is going to work Our president is more of an idiot than bush was with the $600 stimulus. $10 extra bucks in the peoples pocket is not going to make people feel safe to go out and spend again.
Posted by: Brianw | Jan 27, 2009 7:51:26 PM
So after rushing to enter a war that has cost us a trillion dollars and rushing to give trillions of dollars to the banks that did nothing, we are now going to rush to borrow another trillion dollars to spend at a time when this year's entire GDP is already owed to a private bank and foreign countries.
We are not going to fix this problem by borrowing more money. Debt has to be eliminated before we get better. What we are going to do is sell our freedom for that $300 check you're going to get in the mail.
Posted by: Web Smith | Jan 27, 2009 7:47:01 PM
Sounds to me that they had some good discussions and varying opinions are healthy if they are genuine in their concerns. All of us should be concerned at the magnitude of the money and why banks are getting so much of the money while turning people out of their homes. Consumers make up 70 percent of the economy so it is rational for me think that more money should be directed to tax payers and businesses versus pet projects. States and local governments should look after their own roads and schools, using tax money that they collect locally to fund the projects. I trust my neighbors (or most of them) to spend their money wisely and prudently, I don't trust politicians to spend it for me.
Posted by: david | Jan 27, 2009 7:20:26 PM
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