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Gibbs: Stock Market Can Be a 'Lagging Economic Indicator'
March 12, 2009 4:40 PM
ABC News' Yunji de Nies and Jake Tapper report:
At his daily briefing today, White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said the stock market "can be a lagging economic indicator."
Many economists consider the stock market a leading economic indicator as it tends to rise and fall ahead of the broader economy.
Unemployment is traditionally a lagging indicator.
For instance, Bernard Baumohl, Chief Global Economist of Economic Outlook Group has said, "History has shown us time and time again that recessions end and recoveries begin long before we see an improvement in the labor market ... After the 2001 recession concluded in November, joblessness continued to rise until the middle of 2003. We will almost certainly have another jobless recovery for many months once this recession ends, which we believe will be in the second half of the year."
"I don't think the market always interprets what may or may not be happening in the short term and how it affects the long term," Gibbs said. "You looked at the market in October of 2007, at 14,000 points, everything was grand. Yet two months later, somehow a series of economists -- and I'm sure maybe some of those interviewed by the Wall Street Journal found that we were in a recession."
Gibbs reminded reporters that when the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) initially passed, the stock market went up, but clearly the economy was in decline.
"It went up 1,000 points. Do you think at that point -- did you -- did you think at that point, based on the gyrations of the stock market, that our problems were solved?" Gibbs asked.
"Well, I think, as the president has enumerated, that I'm not entirely sure that the perception of the up-and-downs of the market are necessarily the perceptions of where the economy is heading."
Gibbs was asked about a recent Wall Street Journal survey, which showed that Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner has less support than his predecessor Secretary Henry Paulson.
"The administration is not here to win a popularity contest among economists that are interviewed by a newspaper," Gibbs responded. "The president has great confidence in his economic team."
-- Yunji de Nies and Jake Tapper
March 12, 2009 | Permalink | Share | User Comments (65)
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hey, I think the economy is doing really well and I don't see the problem of what is going on.
Posted by: betty | Mar 26, 2009 11:50:28 AM
It went up 1,000 points????
On 10/3/08 when the program was passed the Dow closed at 10,325. One week after it passed the Dow was at 8,451... Almost 2,000 points LOWER...
As of last week; 5 months after it was passed, it was at 6,449.
In the past week we've finally have seen some relief in the relentless selling and we're back to 7,223.
Gibbs is either a liar, an idiot, or both.
Posted by: FedUP | Mar 15, 2009 11:39:59 AM
I think that journalism has become a complete joke.
Below is the definition of a journalist from Wikipedia.
“A journalist (also called a newspaperman) is a person who practices journalism, the gathering and dissemination of information about current events, trends, issues, and people while striving for viewpoints that aren't biased.”
When did it become a journalist job to regurgitate what they hear without any fact checking?
This article is rampant with disinformation starting with the title. What a joke!
No wonder we have a bunch of sheep in this country. We have sheep reporting to sheep.
Posted by: S | Mar 14, 2009 2:11:14 PM
you should have stayed with the BeeGees Mr. Gibbs.
Posted by: s | Mar 13, 2009 8:14:29 PM
"It went up 1,000 points. Do you think at that point -- did you -- did you think at that point, based on the gyrations of the stock market, that our problems were solved?"
Shame on you, Jake!
Don't let Gibbs lie like and then let him get away with it!:
"October 3rd was the day the bill passed. The S&P closed at 1099 that day.
It fell relentlessly until 11/20 at which time it closed at 752, for a loss of approximately 22% over the next two months.
There was no material retracement and at no time did the index go over 1099 from that day forward.
Revisionism is common in politics but out-and-out lying requires a special art, as does our media's unwillingness to call out a White House that lies straight to their face."
See Denninger's Market Ticker, "Obama's Revisionism and ABC's Stupidity."
Ouch!
Posted by: Gone Gulchin' | Mar 13, 2009 5:12:54 PM
The hits just keep on coming from the Brother Gibbs.
Posted by: DontGet818OnMeNow | Mar 13, 2009 3:51:49 PM
Why no follow up on this by the MSM this was an out and out lie. The stock market didn't rally 1000 after TARP passage. I mean how many lies can this group of morons think they can get away with. And how long is the MSM going to let them pull the wool over our eyes. Where's Seymour Hersh, Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein when you need them.
Posted by: Paul | Mar 13, 2009 2:20:14 PM
I am amazed at people posting that they had their kids college money in stocks. Stocks are for money you can afford to lose. They can frequently become much like a pyramid scheme, where a stock can be 'talked' up much more than its real value. A lousy CEO can ruin a good company, a bad product recall can kill a stock's worth, etc. This isn't anyplace for your kid's college money or even your retirement if you are less than 15 years away. The price of many stocks were over-valued for the very reason that too many people were using stocks as a bank, lured by the promise of quick profits. The great demand cause by many more buyers artificially inflated their value.
I wouldn't use stock prices as an indicator of economic health. I would use job gains(especially in living-wage jobs), trade balances and cost-of living to assess the health of an economy. Stocks are about the gamblers among us.
Posted by: Lydia | Mar 13, 2009 1:58:46 PM
"Can I ask why nobody from ABC challenged that ridiculous statement about the market (DOW, I assume) rising 1000 points when the EESA/TARP was passed?"
What he should have referenced.
"The market RALLIED 8.5% on September 18 and 19 when Paulson announced the TARP"
Posted by: Ryan C | Mar 13, 2009 1:55:46 PM
"It's no wonder that Obama's poll numbers are lower than Bush's at this same time in their presidencies."
Obama's numbers are higher than Bush's were at the same time though not by much.
Obama has been in the low 60's in most approval polls.
According to RCP latest gathering
Gallup: 62%
Rasmussen: 56%
Ipsos/McClatchy: 65%
Newsweek: 58%
FoxNews: 63%
While Bush was in the mid to high 50's during the same time period.
(polls from March 2001, with multiple polls listed early to later)
ABCWapo: 58%
FoxNews/Opinion Dynamics: 56%, 57%
NBC/WSJ: 57%
Gallups/USAT: 63%, 58%, 53%
CBS: 60%
Newsweek: 55%
LAT: 62%
Harris: 49%
IBD: 49%
Time.CNN: 55%
Bloomberg: 54%
Posted by: Ryan C | Mar 13, 2009 1:50:59 PM
Wait a minute, I thought market were "forward-looking". Now they're a "lagging indicator"? I'm so confused!
Posted by: Joe498120 | Mar 13, 2009 1:31:19 PM
Can I ask why nobody from ABC challenged that ridiculous statement about the market (DOW, I assume) rising 1000 points when the EESA/TARP was passed?
The bill passed on October 3rd. The SPX closed that day at 1099. It has not been there since, and over the next two months the index lost 22%, with the majority of the loss coming over the next FIVE TRADING DAYS.
Where are the HONEST journalists?
Posted by: Karl Denninger | Mar 13, 2009 12:48:25 PM
Stock Market a lagging indicator? LOl, yet ANOTHER ridiculous statement by someone totally uncomprehending regarding anything to do with an economy.
The markets have ALWAYS been "forward looking" and as an investor for 35 years i can testify as to their accuracy of telling us where we will be 6-9 months down the road.
This Administration is in so far over it's head it is beyond funny and is downright frightening. Te president is a puppet and we don't even know who is yanking his strings. he makes gaffe after gaffe, flip flop after flip flop and has about the most incompetent press secretary since Stehenopolous.
This is what the sheeple of America get for putting a yokel whose resume fits nicely on the back of a postage stamp into the WH.
Posted by: Joseph | Mar 13, 2009 12:31:39 PM
It's no wonder that Obama's poll numbers are lower than Bush's at this same time in their presidencies. Gibbs makes Scott McClellan look like a rhetorical genius.
Posted by: robtr | Mar 13, 2009 12:30:20 PM
Obama is a lagging indicator of the gullibility of the American voter. Gibbs: All of Auburn is ashamed of you
Posted by: ProtectFreedom | Mar 13, 2009 11:58:27 AM
The administration continues to
show its incompetence and Gibbs is
living proof. What a buffoon.
He makes Biden look smart!
Posted by: reaganfan | Mar 13, 2009 11:35:00 AM
The Daily Show video exposing the stupidity of Cramer has done more for the markets than any economic indicators this week.
Posted by: Common Sense | Mar 12, 2009 10:37:02 PM
The WHO numbers can and likely are skewed in several ways. I'm not upset about it all, because anything that comes out of the UN is suspect. I just think it's would be great if we could analyze the data instead of taking WHO at face value. For instance re live births, we record among live births premature births that other nations count as miscarriages and stillbirths. Life expectancy isn't all about healthcare - we have a higher murder rate, we lose more lives in military action, there are lifestyle issues that cause people to have shorter lives. As there is no raw data to see, thus no way to analyze, my comments about the UK are based on my reading and my own experience. The state of National Health in England is no big secret. There is a terrible shortage of doctors and nurses and the level of care is not what we are used to in this country. There is however excellent private care in the UK.
Posted by: Joanne600 | Mar 12, 2009 9:50:22 PM
lol. Well, what is it? A lagging economic indicator or a tracking poll?
Posted by: Sigmonde | Mar 12, 2009 9:18:37 PM
Turned out the UN was right about Iraq, so why not about health?
Who would you rather believe? the US media? It staggers the imagination...
Posted by: Flash Override | Mar 12, 2009 9:16:55 PM
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