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Unemployment Estimates Continue to Worsen: CBO Predicts Peak Over 10 Percent

May 21, 2009 5:54 PM

ABC News' Matthew Jaffe and Charlie Herman report: The Congressional Budget Office said Thursday that the country's economy will start growing again in the second half of this year, but the unemployment rate will rise into the second half of next year and peak at a rate above 10 percent, just the latest in a series of worsening unemployment predictions from a variety of sources.

The new CBO forecast was made by their director Douglas Elmendorf in prepared testimony for a hearing Thursday before the House Budget Committee.

"The economy will stop contracting and resume growing during the second half of this year, but the hardships caused by the recession will persist for some time," Elmendorf said. "The growth in output later this year and next year is likely to be sufficiently weak that the unemployment rate will probably continue to rise into the second half of next year and peak above 10 percent. Economic growth over time will ultimately bring the unemployment rate back down to the neighborhood of 5 percent seen before this downturn began, but that process is likely to take several years."

His outlook for unemployment is more downbeat than the Federal Reserve's. The nation's central banker Wednesday revealed in the minutes from the last Federal Open Markets Meeting that it expects unemployment to rise to around 9.2 percent to 9.6 percent by the end of the year. The unemployment rate currently sits at a 25-year high of 8.9 percent.

Estimates for unemployment have worsened since last February when Christina Romer, chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, said the Obama administration anticipated that unemployment would average just over eight percent for 2009 overall.

In his prepared testimony, Elmendorf Thursday outlined reasons for optimism going forward, but also various causes for concern.

"On the positive side, the fiscal stimulus provided by the federal government is now beginning to boost the economy and financial markets show clear signs of improvement since the fall and the winter," he said. "Moreover, the sharp reductions seen in manufacturing production will keep inventories to leaner levels than would have occurred otherwise, so that upturns in sales, when they come, will lead to faster and larger increases in output."

"However," he then added, "many factors will temper the strength of the recovery: the loss of household wealth; the fragility of financial institutions; persistently weak growth in the rest of the world; a surplus of housing units on the market; and low utilization of manufacturing capacity. How much those factors will dampen the recovery is uncertain: They may be overcome relatively quickly by the jump start provided by the stimulus and improvements in consumer and business confidence, or they may cause the economy to slump again next year, as the effects of the stimulus begin to wane."

"Even if the economy returns to positive growth this year, the loss in output, income, and employment during the recession and the next few years will be huge," he later noted.

-- Matthew Jaffe & Charlie Herman

May 21, 2009 | Permalink | Share | User Comments (31)

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The Great Depression is here. The companies that are still alive right now will be weeded out leaving only those that necessary. Most luxury companies and restaurants will fail. I've never seen so many businesses dissappear overnight - everywhere I go.
I see "For Lease" and "Available" on store fronts.

Posted by: blake Southwood | Jun 6, 2009 5:24:19 AM

Puff Piece alright. I'm sick of reading this cheerleading trash. Last month it was how "we only lost 500K instead of 650K. Yay! the depression is over..the end is in sight!" What are they thinking!?!?..that we can all go out and buy boats now becase we're ONLY loosing half a million jobs a month on top of 14 million unemployed with 7 million claiming? um...There's real people out there in deep trouble and are not going to "bounce back". No investment sector is safe to invest in due to the uncertainty of goverment intervention and rule changes, inv funds are redemed, state & local governments at all levels raising taxes to unprecidented figures, energy cost on the rise, and we will have a heap of inflation to boot thanks to the faux stimulus. I predict Jimmy Barak Carter Obama to loose in the next election cycle due to a pandemic of world-wide Malaise.

Posted by: Jim | May 29, 2009 11:46:40 PM

The recovery can't even start until the job losses stop. The average citizen needs a job and the confidence that the job is permanent before the economy will improve. Those jobs should be tax-paying, economy supporting and health care covered too but the manufacturing industry is the only one that can supply that number and type of jobs. When our politicians, corporate managers and economists finally figure this out and quit letting all the gravy jobs go to China, then we can hope for some improvement.

Posted by: Ted Ryfiak | May 28, 2009 10:44:44 AM

"They may be overcome relatively quickly by the jump start provided by the stimulus and improvements in consumer and business confidence, or they may cause the economy to slump again next year, as the effects of the stimulus begin to wane."

No where in the article did they mention the inflation that will be brought on by the stimulus. They also assume the stimulus will have the desired effect, which is speculation. It looks more like a economic puff piece.

Posted by: KR | May 22, 2009 11:37:35 AM

The "do nothing" option vs. $787M "stimulus" is looking more and more like the correct action that should have been taken...The "stimulus" thus far has had zero/minimal impact on improving the economy (but has had, obviously, an impact on expanding the deficit and national debt).

But, of course, those of us who understand the folly of Keynesian economic principles and how the "stimulus" was constructed (as realization of a massive wishlist for liberals), are (unfortunately) not surprised.

Posted by: tjp612 | May 22, 2009 11:36:48 AM

It's the economy - sweetheart.

Posted by: DontGet818OnMeNow | May 22, 2009 10:02:31 AM

Economy crashes - New World Order -Jesus Christ Returns for those who have accepted him as their Lord and Savior.

Posted by: R. Pfau | May 22, 2009 4:08:59 AM

Why are his rating so high?

Posted by: Scarry | May 22, 2009 1:20:50 AM

The current 8.9% unemployment rate used by the CBO is bogus to begin with. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the real unemployment rate is currently 15.4% (which includes the underemployed). Google "bls u6" to see the data.

So if the CBO is saying we'll go over 10% in 2010, the real unemployment rate will likely be in the 16% to 20% range (or more).

Is this the CHANGE that Obama's supporters signed up for?

Posted by: Tony D | May 21, 2009 11:10:55 PM

Jim - "was his goal to save or create 5 million jobs"? There are still over 130 million jobs in the country. We could lose another 100 million of them without even getting close to threatening his goal.

Even that won't happen - CO2 regulation will guarantee upwards of 50 million jobs in the subsistence farming sector of the economy.

Posted by: bgates | May 21, 2009 10:14:55 PM

Face it, the liberals in Office aren't concerned. They have more money then they know what to do with. You only hear from them when they need your vote. At which time they will go from town to town and sometimes they will even wear a hard hat and plaid shirt. After all that's what they feel they must do as to give you the impression that they are at your level and really care. They are cold hearted and could care less about what Americans are going through right now! God settles all accounts!

Posted by: R. Pfau | May 21, 2009 9:39:20 PM

Sorry, I meant to say rumors of Sen. Clinton dropping out of the race.

Posted by: James Danley | May 21, 2009 9:38:41 PM

"The economy will stop contracting and resume growing during the second half of this year, but the hardships caused by the recession will persist for some time"

Resume growth? Aren't these the same geniuses who didn't predict the economic crisis in the first place?

"On the positive side, the fiscal stimulus provided by the federal government is now beginning to boost the economy and financial markets show clear signs of improvement since the fall and the winter."

None of my unemployed friends has benefited from the stimulus spending. A couple of them have been laid off twice in 6 months and they're IT professionals. Economic indicators are very negative and getting worse. And the market? The market isn't the economy, which should have been clear when it was reaching new highs in 2007 while the underlying economy was very sick.

"Moreover, the sharp reductions seen in manufacturing production will keep inventories to leaner levels than would have occurred otherwise, so that upturns in sales, when they come, will lead to faster and larger increases in output."

And if the sales don't come as the economy worsens throughout 2010? Bye bye companies. Bye bye jobs.

Not to worry. The combination of trillions in deficit spending, countless punitive regulations on the private sector, and regressive taxes on the working poor and middle class will usher in a new era of unprecedented prosperity for America. Really. Obama said so.

Posted by: Stacey | May 21, 2009 9:32:44 PM

Fascist Hyena, I don't believe you are giving President Obama enough credit. I contend that it was HIS campaigning for raising taxes on the wealthy that caused the wealthy to pullout their money from the stock market and cut back on their spending. This began in earnest with the rumors of Sen. Clinton in May 2008 (actually reported as fact on June 4, 2008). And then the cuts in spending were even more dramatic following the election.

Just look at the Unemployment Rate:
Apr 2008 5.0
May 2008 5.5
Jun 2008 5.6
Jul 2008 5.8
Aug 2008 6.2
Sep 2008 6.2
Oct 2008 6.6
Nov 2008 6.8
Dec 2008 7.2
Jan 2009 7.6
Feb 2009 8.1
Mar 2009 8.5
Apr 2009 8.9

Posted by: James Danley | May 21, 2009 9:30:56 PM

9.2% by the end of this year??? We're going to hit 9.2% probably on June 5th when last month's figures come out...

Posted by: Tuari | May 21, 2009 9:20:34 PM

I don't remember, was his goal to save or create 5 million jobs or to lose 5 million jobs? He seems to be doing real good at the later.

Posted by: jim | May 21, 2009 9:01:53 PM

To the liberals, do you honestly think that it is helping "Our Country" out when Obama throws money at Pakistan? Shouldn't our President be taking care of this Country first? That must be such a disappointment to know that he took your vote and ran with it and never looked back! How many of you voted for him actually believed that he cared? Now you have no job and you have to hear on the Nightly News how much money he's giving to Pakistan.Thanks to the liberal voters out there our economy is much worse, our Country is not safe, and more unborn babies will die! Wake up people! And you thought Bush wasn't smart? God help us all. The New Administration needs to hold him accountable or get out.

Posted by: R. Pfau | May 21, 2009 8:42:47 PM

Obama inherited an unemployment rate of 7.5%. All of the increase has occurred on his watch, and as a result of the policies he has enacted and those he has proposed.

Posted by: Fascist Hyena | May 21, 2009 8:25:01 PM

Just further proof that quadrupling the deficit works! Imagine how bad it would have been otherwise. But why stop here? Let's spend $700 QUADRILLION, payable over 1,000 years! That'll reverse things in a hurry!

Posted by: Chuck | May 21, 2009 8:04:49 PM

D*mn good thing the Dems rammed that $787 billion stimulus bill through Congress. And good thing the deficit from Obama's budget and spending bills is only going to be greater than any president from Washington through Bush combined. And good thing the debt is going to triple in ten years.

Of course all of this just has to be the fault of President Bush. And naturally we will hear a bunch of nonsense about the relatively tiny deficits under Reagan. But there is no way the left can argue their way out of the fact that this president is bankrupting the United States and trying to pass massive stealth tax increases in the form of Cap and Trade along with the other $1.1 trillion in tax increases in his latest budget. And that whole "no new taxes on the middle class" lie? Kind of hard to keep arguing that when you have already passed massive cigarette taxes and are seriously considering confiscatory taxes on alcoholic beverages and soda to finance the socialist takeover of the health care industry. And the argument that subsidizing the health care of tens of millions of Americans is somehow going to save money is just plain hilarious and is easily disprovable by looking at the examples of Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security.


You guys better start getting out your "Blame Bush" megaphones and double down on your telling of jokes tea party protesters and Rush Limbaugh, because you are gonnna need them to distract from the failure of this president's policies.

But I can see why you guys voted for Obama. After all, he has ended earmarks, pulled out of Iraq, started to wind down the war in Afghanistan, captured bin Laden, has ended the use of enhanced interrogation techniques, ended wiretapping, stopped using Bush-era arguments about state secrets, ended the use of military tribunals, responded forcefully to the launch of missiles by the N. Koreans. been tough on Latin American dictators, called for a halt on the deportation of illegal immigrants, ended "don't ask, don't tell", come out in support of gay marriage, etc. Oh wait, he hasn't done any of those things.

Posted by: Marl | May 21, 2009 7:36:15 PM

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