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Summers: Despite Rising Unemployment, Stimulus Has Not Failed
July 17, 2009 1:19 PM
ABC News’ Matthew Jaffe reports: National Economic Council director Larry Summers today defended the Obama administration’s actions on a wide range of issues, including the stimulus act, the soaring deficit, and the bailout program.
Holding court for over an hour at the Peterson Institute in Washington this morning, President Obama’s top economic adviser acknowledged concern that the nation’s unemployment rate hit a 26-year high of 9.5 percent last month, but said that does not mean that the $787 billion stimulus plan has failed.
“Unemployment is substantially higher and job loss has been greater than most observers predicted last winter and unemployment is likely to rise in the coming months. This is obviously a major area of concern,” he acknowledged. “But contrary to a significant amount of commentary, this does not provide a basis for concluding that the Recovery Act is falling short of its goals.”
“Both administration and independent forecasts predicted that only a very small part of the total job creation expected from the Recovery Act would take place within six months,” he continued. “Indeed, a Council of Economic Advisers’ study predicted that only 10 percent of the total job impact of the Recovery Act would take place during calendar year 2009. Given lags in spending and hiring, the peak impact of the stimulus on jobs was expected not to be achieved until the end of 2010.”
The government’s massive spending to stem the current recession sent the budget deficit over the $1 trillion mark for the first time ever earlier this week. But Summers today refuted growing concerns about the deficit by arguing that a prolonged recession would have presented an even bigger problem.
“I think the greatest risk to future US deficits would be uncontrolled economic contraction in the United States,” he said. “Containing this downturn and preventing the kind of debt dynamics you saw in Japan or you saw during the Depression in the United States has to be the first priority of anyone concerned with national credit worthiness or any intellectually honest deficit hawk. Rescuing the economy has to be the first priority.”
The administration, stated Summers, has already made a great deal of progress in these rescue efforts.
“If we were at the brink of catastrophe at the beginning of the year, we have walked some substantial distance back from the abyss,” he stated.
Some positive signs came from the financial sector this week as major banks likeGoldman Sachs and JP Morgan Chase released second quarter earnings reports that exceeded analysts’ expectations.
“I think it’s crucial to recognize that the increased health of financial firms is a positive indicator for the economy,” Summers said. “The ability of financial firms to pay back the resources they received from the government is a positive and a favorable sign, but let me be absolutely clear: there is no financial institution that would be reporting the kind of positive results that we have seen in the last quarter, but for extraordinary public support provided by the government.”
-Matthew Jaffe
July 17, 2009 | Permalink | Share | User Comments (95)
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jjsmith wrote: "The experts agreed that the stimulus bill that was passed was not the right way to do that. That would have required tax cuts, and the democrats could not stomach that politically." +++++ How long have you been out of work jj? I, and everyone I know, got less tax taken out of our checks beginning in April. And experts like Warren Buffett said the stimulus was the way to go. He's worth 100 so-called "experts" who differ!
Posted by: The_Mick | Jul 19, 2009 3:49:23 PM
Danita- as you lay it out for us, please refrain from using vague and fuzzy terms like world economic crisis.
Posted by: bmm | Jul 19, 2009 2:23:41 PM
Give us the specifics. And then give us how the current actions taken will get the economy back on track.
Posted by: bmm | Jul 19, 2009 2:13:11 PM
Danita- You seem to know every administration talking point inside out, tell us oh informed one, why is unemployment going up?
Posted by: bmm | Jul 19, 2009 2:06:09 PM
"The unemployment rate in my state has gone from 10% to 15%, thanks to the "stimulus".
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What a shallow and bogus analysis. The unemployment rate has been rising because the world continues to be in a major economic crisis - without the Recovery and Reinvestment monies coming on stream things would be much worse.
Part of the monies went to shore up state and local budgets and have been used to prevent as many layoffs of police, firefighters, teachers and health care workers as possible. Without these monies those layoffs could have been much more widespread.
A bipartisan group of governors came out today (Saturday) to say that the federal stimulus package helped states avoid deep budget cuts during the recession - and associated layoffs and damage that would have gone with those cuts.
It's not genuine to blame rising unemployment rates on the Recovery monies.
Posted by: danita | Jul 19, 2009 1:49:32 AM
Heck yeah, the unemployment rate in my state has gone from 10% to 15%, thanks to the "stimulus." Please don't pass another one or we will be in the same condition as California!!
Posted by: Sunnyr | Jul 18, 2009 8:35:56 PM
"Paul Krugman, a Nobel Prize winning economist said that the stimulus bill had to be about 2 trillion dollars, big enough to create enough jobs to dwarf rising unemployment."
Yeah, the same Paul Krugman who DIDN'T SEE THE CRISIS COMING. Hey, why stop at $2 trillion? Why not $500 QUADRILLION? More is better right? Debt be d*mned! Do the same in your household. If you're deep in debt, just quadruple it to make things better! Makes perfect sense. Incidentally, many of the businesses that are now failing are doing so because of unmanageable DEBT. Duh.
Economist Peter Schiff did see this crisis coming back in 2004 and documented it in horrific detail in one of his books. Except for occasional appearances on CNBC and Fox, he continues to be ignored. I wonder why.
Posted by: Jenn | Jul 18, 2009 7:29:06 PM
jjsmith: "The experts agreed that the stimulus bill that was passed was not the right way to do that. That would have required tax cuts, and the democrats could not stomach that politically."
That's FALSE. Paul Krugman, a Nobel Prize winning economist said that the stimulus bill had to be about 2 trillion dollars, big enough to create enough jobs to dwarf rising unemployment. He also said that some money had to be given to small business because they create the jobs. He also said that it had to be expedited quickly, and directly to the cities and regions that need it. Sending it to the states just slows down the process.
Obama did not listen to him. Krugman also said that if they didn't get this right it would lead to another wave of foreclosures and a bad economy that could last for years.
Posted by: bubbles | Jul 18, 2009 6:32:43 PM
Isn't this the same Summers that got run out of Harvard for investing their endowment funds and losing about half of it?
Posted by: jim 234 | Jul 18, 2009 5:47:20 PM
Lets see if I can get this right:
Congress spent massive amounts of money to bail out the banks and auto industry to protect the citizens from catastrophic finacal meltdown. The result is a trillion dollar deficit, spiraling unemployment and record profits for the banks. We got taken to the cleaners.
Here is an idea: Nationalize the banks and apply those profits to the deficit.
Posted by: lewis | Jul 18, 2009 3:18:53 PM
The Financial Times reported last week that "administration officials think further stimulus might eventually be needed but they do not want to have this fight now."
What is the definition of insanity?
Posted by: WhereWasThePress? | Jul 18, 2009 2:14:33 PM
It's really quite simple. The democrats did not pass a bill that would get people back to work this year. The experts agreed that the stimulus bill that was passed was not the right way to do that. That would have required tax cuts, and the democrats could not stomach that politically. So they passed this huge spending bill that does not create jobs. But of course, some jobs will be created by the mid-term elections this year. The bill that was passed was all about the democrats retaining power. Very sad that they mortgaged our future in this way. Where are the 4 - 6 million jobs you promised, President Obama? We're watching.
Posted by: jjsmith | Jul 18, 2009 1:52:33 PM
The problem that people dont realize about the unemployment percent numbers is they ARENT FALLING it was 8% then 9% then 9.6% we are looking at 10% and rising!!! What happens if they dont fall for the next 10 years if ever! These jobs are not coming back and even a 1% or 2% back down could just be an indicator of the 'seasonal christmas help' that companies will hire and lay off after Dec 25th! What happens after Christmas guys when people stop buying stuff and companies dont start hiring until the 2nd quarter around April? By the way this is when the U.S. government realizes they are out 15% of unemployed peoples tax revenue. Why else do you think they are trying so hard to pass this hard sell pass the tax burden on to us healthcare bill? Its about making the government tax revenue money (off our backs for their idiotic mistakes like the stimulus bill, buying GM, bailing out banks etc).
Posted by: guesswhaturwrong | Jul 18, 2009 1:36:50 PM
Only an idiot would think Obama could turn the Bush depression around in just six months.
==========================================
Or a Republican. I am giving them the benefit of the doubt that they are not all idiots....just blinded by ideology...
Posted by: indy_voter | Jul 18, 2009 11:44:16 AM
Look, jobs won't come back on financial institutions are sound and businesses can borrow and spend money again. It's simple. Banks are slowly becoming healthy which means businesses will slowly be able to borrow and spend again which means jobs will return slowly. Now, the only caveat to this is to ensure when the recovery occurs businesses aren't looking overseas to staff keeping U.S. unemployment high..
Posted by: indy_voter | Jul 18, 2009 11:42:20 AM
Stimulus will not fail even if there is 99.9% unemployment....
Posted by: Freedom | Jul 18, 2009 10:37:05 AM
I have heard this referred to as a jobless recovery. A jobless recovery describes a recovery from a recession which does not produce growth in employment.
Obama is looking very shaky on his "create or save" slight of hand. Now, I can't remember, is this being called a recovery, a stimulus, a destabilization? What is the current 'doublespeak' being used by the Obama administration?
I would question that it is a recovery at all.
Money is being taken from us in taxes and the treasury is printing up even more money and they are giving it to banks and financial institutions (not to mention the auto industry) to prop them up. The earnings are based on the banks passing the money back and forth but not lending it back to the people.
I would call it a "head fake" recovery. Industry insiders are still selling their stocks and cashing out. Be careful out there...
Posted by: WhereWasThePress? | Jul 18, 2009 9:32:50 AM
Obama is trying to walk down two dangerous paths without getting scratched.
He is trying to avoid the problems Carter had with Democrats being fighting his agenda almost as much as the Republicans and he is trying to keep the negatives on his programs the fault of congress not him.
To accomplish this he is stating the great results he wants for the American people and asking congress to deliver the legislation with those results.
This way the stimulus package was Pelosi's package not his. What he wanted is somewhat included along with the benefits congress added for their "special interests" and friends.
Unfortunately we are getting the same BS as we have been getting all along that has driven the standard of living for the working person in the US down and enriched the few who developed the proper connections.
As was warned by President Eisenhower the biggest danger he say for the US was the military industrial complex. That is modern terms are the huge global corporations that control manufacturing, finances, media, health care, and food. This is where the wealth resides today. Contrary to what is put out by the media they do not have even close to the same tax burden as the working citizen does today.
Posted by: Joe | Jul 18, 2009 9:27:56 AM
Glossing over the failures of this Obama economy (yes, he has to own it now) does not help the country. Things are getting worse daily. Yes there are a few "less than feared" signs but that isn't exactly a move forward.
Posted by: JenJen | Jul 18, 2009 9:15:44 AM
What a liar! It is simple. The President said that if this stimulus bill was passed unemployment would not go over 8%. It has, so the bill has failed. Why? Frankly, the stupid thing was backloaded instead of front loaded. In other words, the people writing the bill and signing off on the bill screwed up. What happens now? Well, the economy is showing some signs of starting to recover and doing it without the influx of cash the stimulus should have provided. So we are taking on tons of new national debt WITHOUT any benefit, nothing to show for the 787 billion spent. Sooner or later that debt must be paid and that will drag on the economy. We have survived one recession while creating the avenue to another. Brilliant work by the people in Washington.
Posted by: Pat Kean | Jul 18, 2009 8:30:08 AM
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