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Iran Nuclear Talks Could Fail in Final Week
November 09, 2009 8:10 AM
Lara Setrakian & Kirit Radia report:
In Tehran and Washington, expectations are dim for a deal on the IAEA nuclear proposal that would have Iran export its low-enriched uranium for processing, easing global fears over its nuclear program. US officials have suggested there is just one week left for Iran to respond before a hard push for new international sanctions; in the past few weeks both the US House and Senate have passed legislation toward unilateral sanctions that would punish foreign companies that sell refined gasoline to Iran.
Ever since the nuclear fuel swap proposal was hammered out in Vienna, Iran has sent mixed messages, at best. On Saturday, a conservative Iranian MP ruled out sending uranium abroad, then on Sunday another prominent MP said the deal was still on the table. The equivocating is a sign of no clear decision from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei; any indication that he wants a deal would shut down the internal bickering. To the contrary, Khamenei’s remarks last Tuesday, bashing the Obama administration, seemed to augur poorly for better ties with Washington.
Western officials and analysts interpret the noise from Iran as a sign that the regime either doesn’t know what it wants, or that wants to keep its uranium stockpile and relations with America as is. IAEA Director General Mohamed El Baradei is working to salvage the proposed deal, suggesting that the uranium be shipped to Turkey while Iran waits for fuel delivery from Russia – held in a kind of nuclear escrow. Iran doesn’t seem to have warmed to the idea, having already requested its own amendments to the original proposal (which the US has ruled out).
The bottom line from US and European diplomats, which comes to a head this week: no nuclear deal means no second round of Geneva talks. And there is nothing beyond the Geneva talks. That would take the response to Iran’s nuclear program out of the diplomacy phase and into punitive mode, starting with sanctions that even a frustrated Russia has suggested it would support. In that case, the P5+1 would likely meet to discuss new sanctions. Those discussions have been ongoing, so they do already have a sense of the measures they’d like to pursue. The road bump this time is expected to be China; President Obama is going to make an appeal for Chinese support for sanctions (that high a level!) when he’s there at the end of this week.
It’s worth recalling that the three major “wins” of the first Geneva talks, as cited by officials, were:
1) The prospect of more talks (by the end of October)
2) The prospect of a fuel swap deal
3) The promise of IAEA inspections at the Fardo nuclear facility near Qom
So far only #3 has come to pass – even there critics argue that Iran had little choice but to let the inspectors in, and plenty of time to move or hide any evidence. By Geneva’s standards for success, we may be approaching the time when President Obama’s strategy of engagement with Iran is declared moot, if not failed.
- Kirit Radia & Lara Setrakian
November 9, 2009 | Permalink | Share | User Comments (54)
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Joseph Goebbels, the Nazi propaganda minister said “If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it.” This is exactly the maxim being adopted by Israeli leaders who are spreading lies, disinformation and half-truths about Iran in order to get the madman in Washington D.C. and his gang of neocons and war criminals to attack another Muslim country on Israel’s behalf.
Posted by: Alan | Nov 10, 2009 11:46:56 AM
This guy is a loser. - -*
Posted by: neozaa | Nov 10, 2009 2:22:43 AM
Malaise is at hand. This guy is a loser.
Posted by: Fascist Hyena | Nov 9, 2009 8:16:19 PM
What do you mean the could fail, they WILL fail, they just keep stalling year after year, this latest secret facility would have been the last straw for a sane world.
Posted by: CC | Nov 9, 2009 5:39:56 PM
The approach is very straight forward, attempt to negotiate a favorable solution, and then if that fails (which we will know with the next few weeks) move on the next level of heavier sanctions.
Posted by: tierra | Nov 9, 2009 4:11:51 PM
Looking forward to it. I sure hope the world can pull this one out! It's a real nailbiter!
Posted by: Visualize Whirled Peas | Nov 9, 2009 4:34:06 PM
I can recall hearing several senior Iranians saying that there is no deal over the past several weeks, but it seems like the Obama admin is not getting the hint.
__________________________________
The United States is not negotiating this in isolation. This is being done with the participation of other major players on the world stage.
The approach is very straight forward, attempt to negotiate a favorable solution, and then if that fails (which we will know with the next few weeks) move on the next level of heavier sanctions.
You 'bomb them' types can just hold onto your underwear for a while - there are real human beings over there, including the ones who've been protesting against their government.
Posted by: tierra | Nov 9, 2009 4:11:51 PM
How many times do we have to hear the Iranians say that they will not ship their enriched uranium out of country before we believe them? I can recall hearing several senior Iranians saying that there is no deal over the past several weeks, but it seems like the Obama admin is not getting the hint.
Posted by: Jason | Nov 9, 2009 3:06:56 PM
Posted by: Fascist Hyena | Nov 9, 2009 2:55:15 PM
Personally, I think the President has ADD.
Posted by: Visualize Whirled Peas | Nov 9, 2009 3:06:17 PM
The president dithers while Iran presses on, men die in Afghanistan and millions lose their jobs:
Obama’s focus on health care when the economy is still so fragile and unemployment moving toward double digits could make it appear that the administration has its priorities confused. While affordable health care is important to Americans, making a living is more immediately urgent. Yet the administration’s efforts to date on this more basic concern have been neither particularly visible nor coherent. It’s hard for most people to understand that unemployment would be worse were it not for the stimulus package; the much-flaunted new “green jobs” have not appeared yet, nor are they likely to for years. The White House has had equal difficulty explaining to Main Street why it would be far worse off today had Wall Street’s biggest banks not been bailed out. Almost nothing has trickled down. Small businesses still can’t get loans.
Posted by: Fascist Hyena | Nov 9, 2009 2:55:15 PM
Posted by: Flash Override | Nov 9, 2009 1:53:45 PM
I knew I was taking a risk by advocating Reagan.
Posted by: Skip | Nov 9, 2009 2:22:03 PM
Posted by: Huh | Nov 9, 2009 2:08:08 PM
Yikes. That'll take me a few hours to digest.
Posted by: Visualize Whirled Peas | Nov 9, 2009 2:17:16 PM
"The cynical title? I saw it on a bumper sticker years ago and it made me chuckle. I thought it was clever."
It is. I may be oversensitive but there are many of us the world over who believe that world peace would be the greatest achievement of mankind and is worth striving for no matter how difficult it might seem. I thought you might be trying to rain on our parade.
Posted by: Skip | Nov 9, 2009 2:01:30 PM
Considering my usual comments, I can understand your suspicions. ;-) I'm working on that...
It is worth striving for no matter how difficult. It can only help. I'm one of those "men are inherently evil" guys though so in my mind it is not achievable. Sorry.
Posted by: Visualize Whirled Peas | Nov 9, 2009 2:14:51 PM
Good luck with your quest of changing the world. Unfortunately our finances require that we drastically scale back our empire, especially when dollar hegemony starts to unravel
Posted by: Huh | Nov 9, 2009 1:55:15 PM
If it's the shared interests of everyone, I'm not sure how finances figures into it unless you're assuming I meant the U.S. going it alone. My desire would be to see the nations work together to get rid of obvious instances of innocents being tortured, starved, raped, etc. whuich all seem to result from "fear" societies.
The U.N. seems incapabale of enforcing its own resolutions. As I said, I would not know how to start a different plan in today's world but I would like to see it. I'm afraid however, it's going to take a much more horrific event than what we see every day to wake people up and get them to want "whirled peas." (Reminds me of how we don't think a lot about traffic fatalaties unless they all occurred at the same time in the same place. Then we would be horrified and probably would work harder to erradicate it.)
I'm not talking Utopia but it would be nice to all work towards justice. I hate to think that "minding our own business" is the only way to go.
Posted by: Visualize Whirled Peas | Nov 9, 2009 2:09:13 PM
Visualize Whirled Peas - Gotta go to lunch. Take care bud.
Posted by: Huh | Nov 9, 2009 2:08:42 PM
Visualize Whirled Peas - My own thoughts on this is monitor but don't provocate them towards feeling the need to develop certain capabilities. Of course, we are past that juncture with our threats and policies towards them over the last 60 years. Our path forward should be much more pragmatic and diplomatic. The best thing that can happen is for the people of Iran to rise up against the oppressive regime and demand democratic change in mass. This will not happen as long as we keep threatening them, as this only drives them towards the hardliners. Maybe thats our plan! Keeps the military industrial complex busy. Our policies such as sanctions have been very harsh on Iran. Less we forget that the sanctions in the 90's according to 60 minutes and confirmed by Madeleine Albright took out 1 million Iraqis. Terrorism at its most insidious. If Iran develops weapons and they use them, they will wiped off the face of the earth in minutes. They realize this, but they also realize that the threat of deterrence may change the way certain powers treat them. After all China is a police state that treats humans as expendable, but we are not going to ride in and make them democratic. Why? Because they are too powerful and besides trading with them has opened the door to reform. This needs to be the path forward with Iran. Not bullying and threats. There is my 2 cents, maybe 5 cents. Oh ya and Ron Paul is the man.
Posted by: Huh | Nov 9, 2009 2:08:08 PM
"The cynical title? I saw it on a bumper sticker years ago and it made me chuckle. I thought it was clever."
It is. I may be oversensitive but there are many of us the world over who believe that world peace would be the greatest achievement of mankind and is worth striving for no matter how difficult it might seem. I thought you might be trying to rain on our parade.
Posted by: Skip | Nov 9, 2009 2:01:30 PM
Posted by: Huh | Nov 9, 2009 1:32:34 PM
If it's all the same to you, I prefer to stay on the Iran topic here and what to do about it.
BTW, are you in favor of Iran having nuclear capability? Yes? No? Still deciding? Don't care?
Posted by: Visualize Whirled Peas | Nov 9, 2009 1:56:54 PM
Visualize Whirled Peas -Good luck with your quest of changing the world. Unfortunately our finances require that we drastically scale back our empire, especially when dollar hegemony starts to unravel.
Posted by: Huh | Nov 9, 2009 1:55:15 PM
"I would support a Reagan strategy for Iran completely"
What? Sell them more weapons?
Posted by: Flash Override | Nov 9, 2009 1:53:45 PM
I most certainly do.
Posted by: Skip | Nov 9, 2009 1:36:26 PM
I'm glad to hear that. Not sure about Huh, though.
Posted by: Visualize Whirled Peas | Nov 9, 2009 1:50:10 PM
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