Political Punch
Power, pop, and probings from ABC News Senior White House Correspondent Jake Tapper

« Previous | Main | Next »

What Are Democrats Planning for Health Care Reform if They Lose the Massachusetts Senate Race?

January 16, 2010 6:35 PM

Jake Tapper and Jonathan Karl report:

Congressional Democrats and White House officials negotiating health care reform are paying close attention to the Massachusetts Senate race, where Republican candidate Scott Brown has said he will be the 41st vote to block the final vote on the final bill.

Normal Senate rules require 60 votes to proceed to a vote on final passage; with the seat-warming Sen. Paul Kirk, D-Mass., replaced by Brown, Democrats would no longer have those 60 votes.

Massachusetts attorney general Martha Coakley, the Democratic candidate flailing in her match with Brown to fill the seat of the late Sen. Ted Kennedy, D-Mass., has caused much Democratic angst. If she loses -- as polls indicate she might -- Democrats want to be in a position to pass a bill through the Senate before Brown is sworn in.  

Under Massachusetts law, the secretary of state must wait “at least” 10 days before certifying the results, to give time for absentee and military ballots to be received and counted.   That means Brown could be sworn in as early as January 29, leaving Democrats very little time to maneuver under their current plan of hashing out a compromise between the House and Senate bills. In fact, it may be impossible to get it done in time.

After a final health care deal is struck (and Democrats are hoping that will happen soon), it goes to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) for a cost estimate, a process expected to take 10 days.  After that, it will take at least seven days to pass the bill in the House and the Senate.

Bottom line is, under the current plan, Unless either 1) the certification in Massachusetts is delayed; or, 2) CBO works much faster than expected, Democrats would be unable to pass a health care bill before losing their 60th vote.

Another factor: An upset GOP victory in Massachusetts would be to Democrats like the ball that slipped through Bill Buckner’s legs in game 6 of the 1986 World Series. If they manage to lose Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat, Democrats, like the Red Sox in Game 7, may be too shell-shocked to win as spooked moderates -- who come from places much less Democratic than Massachusetts -- become more reluctant to take another tough vote on an unpopular bill.

One possible contingency plan Democrats are making if Brown wins: have the House pass the Senate bill, so the Senate doesn’t have to vote any more on the matter.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., has told the White House that she’s skeptical the House would pass that legislation, given the stark differences in some areas, but Senate Democrats and White House officials would push hard the notion that the bills are 90 percent similar and not doing so would be allowing the insurance companies to win.

Another idea that the House Democrats are discussing assuming Brown wins: having Senate Democrats force the bill through by bypassing normal Senate rules and passing the legislation through reconciliation -- requiring only 50 votes. That would even allow some moderates to peel away.

One option no one seems to be seriously discussing is delaying Brown being seated, though Republicans have already dispatched legal teams to Massachusetts in anticipation of any possible recount or other legal challenge that could delay Brown’s certification -- if, of course, he wins. 

-- Jake Tapper and Jonathan Karl

January 16, 2010 | Permalink | Share | User Comments (127)

User Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

it is good to know that Massachusetts folks are smart as tea bag party folks.
Yay!!!

Posted by: yellowfish | Feb 7, 2010 4:11:58 PM

Gee, all of you FOR this so called Health Care Bill act like you KNOW what is in it? Do you?

I am not voting in today's election since I am in Illinois, but I am ROOTING for Brown! I am an Independent and I HATE what I know of this Healthcare Bill, but even I will say, I don't know even 25% of what is in it, WHY?????because the Dems and the White House are keeping it a secret. Is that a government and a President you trust? I feel sorry for you. They lie by saying that anyone who is AGAINST this bill is against healthcare reform. What a crock! I would love to see some changes. But, NOT THESE! My mother is on disability with an already broken and almost bankcrupt medicare system. So, I really scrutinized this part of this bill. It will RUIN what is left of Medicare and these poor elderly people will not have adequate care. That much I know.

Rock on Massachusetts and Scott Brown!

Posted by: Maria | Jan 19, 2010 4:07:31 PM

If somehow the Republicans pull this off they've duped Americans again into believing that they're fiscally more responsible than Democrats... Which is an absolute ABSURDITY!!

Posted by: Metropolitician1 | Jan 19, 2010 1:10:55 PM

We have come so far with healthcare reform for some idiot campaigning that he will be the one to kill it. I work for Wellpoint and we have received emails on our work site for months urging us to be against healthcare reform. People are ignorant just how the insurance companies have just want they want. I am raising a grandchild that was born with a genetic disease and I want her to be able to have health insurance when she can no longer be covered on my insurance. She will be excluded from being able to get an individual policy. I was hoping something would change in this country, but we are so stuck with the same old mentality. I am sick of politics!

Posted by: Pat | Jan 19, 2010 12:24:41 AM

SHAME, SHAME ON YOU MASSACHUSETTS!! HOW SHORT ARE YOUR MEMORIES. THE REPUBLICANS PUT US IN THE WORST ECONOMIC MESS IN THE PAST 80 YEARS AND YOU WHINE BECAUSE WE HAVEN'T BEEN ABLE TO CRAWL OUT IN 12 MONTHS. YOU DESERVE WHAT YOU GET. TOO BAD THE REST OF THE COUNTRY HAS TO SUFFER BECAUSE OF YOUR STUPIDITY.

Posted by: Independentvoice | Jan 18, 2010 11:51:20 PM

"You are missing the point"


Well yes, I've been intentionally arguing somewhat tangentially since apparently only tacitly admitting I think your questions are good ones when I said I wasn't going to put up a big argument against Glass-Steagall. My question would be: What is the difference between a few really big banks failing and a whole lot of little ones? If we try and limit the size of the banks people are going to scream government interference. [I'm aware that Bank of America really doesn't want to reenact Glass-Steagall] However I don't like the answer: "because Congress is owned by the banks". Along with ignoring a matter of degree possibly to blur the distinction between the Democrats and the Republicans on this issue when it's convenient, I think it can be successfully argued that everybody is owned by the banks. How are we going to elect politicians who are not swayed by the banks? Nobody does anything without a bank, unless you're very confident in your mattress. I'm willing to bet you're not going to advocate nationalizing the banks.

Posted by: Skip | Jan 18, 2010 8:24:44 AM

LOOKS TO ME LIKE MOST OF THE COUNTRY WISH THAT CHENEY AND BUSH WERE STILL IN - ANYBODY WATCH THE NEWS - THE REAL NEWS??

Posted by: Manitu | Jan 18, 2010 6:09:41 AM

Several studies have indicated that without TARP we very well might have ended up in a full blown depression instead of just a recession. You've got to be a fanatical capitalist zealot to want to risk that.

Posted by: Skip |

You are missing the point. Why do we allow these too-big-to-fail banks to exist? Why do we allow them to take the kinds of leveraged risks they took and continue to take? Why don't we reinstate Glass Steagall which would have prevented the problem in the first place? Why do we put in place a system that backstopped anything these Fat Cats want to do?

Answer: because Congress is owned by the banks. Once you realize that, everything Washington does with respect to the banks makes sense.

Posted by: Foghorn Leghorn | Jan 18, 2010 1:26:19 AM

At this same rally they continued to blame Bush.
________________________________

It wasn't just Bush, it was the entire Bush administration. They made a mess of a lot of stuff. Cheney, Rumsfeld, Gonzalez, Ashcroft . ... the memory is enough to make your skin crawl.

Posted by: tierra | Jan 18, 2010 1:07:17 AM

There should be no surprise to find businessmen in these positions when voters--especially conservatives--demand that elected officials have business experience themselves or appoint people with business experience as top advisers.
There have been allegations made that Goldman Sachs took extra risks knowing that Paulson and the government wouldn't let AIG fail, so their primary debtor was secure.
But it's not just the government who doesn't want the banks to fail. Barney Franks is responding to public demands for protection against catastrophic economic collapse. Several studies have indicated that without TARP we very well might have ended up in a full blown depression instead of just a recession. You've got to be a fanatical capitalist zealot to want to risk that.

Posted by: Skip | Jan 18, 2010 12:44:45 AM

Scott Brown is a Republican in the mold of Cheney and Bush and their ilk - no thank you.

Posted by: tierra |

Marcia thanks you for your support.

Posted by: Foghorn Leghorn | Jan 18, 2010 12:03:54 AM

In principle don't you think it's more fair to have emergency funds and procedures codified than having guys like Paulson deciding in the heat of the moment which companies live and which die?

Posted by: Skip |

There's no funds being set aside. That's not Washington's way. And everybody, starting with the Fat Cats, know that the US gov't won't let the big banks fail. Paulson, like Rubin before him and Geithner now are Goldman Sachs boys. There is no doubt who will be the last to die.

My view is that if it is too big to fail it shouldn't exist. Washington doesn't share that view.

Posted by: Foghorn Leghorn | Jan 17, 2010 11:56:14 PM

The Democrats are desperate for power, power, power! To prove this just look at what happened today at the Obama rally for Martha Coakley. Patrick Kennedy said: "and we need to get Marcia Coakley to help him to do that" then continued repeating her WRONG NAME over and over. Obviously they don't care about her as a candidate or the people of Mass. as long as they keep their firm steal grip on the power they are sloppily thirsting over.

At this same rally they continued to blame Bush. As if Bush didn't first inherit a recession from Clinton in 2000. Nevertheless, the blame Bush is so overused it only makes the silly Democrats look like the petty little irresponsible children that they are.

Posted by: EPU | Jan 17, 2010 11:45:59 PM

"Builds the next bailout right into the law"


In principle don't you think it's more fair to have emergency funds and procedures codified than having guys like Paulson deciding in the heat of the moment which companies live and which die?

Posted by: Skip | Jan 17, 2010 11:13:05 PM

Scott Brown has assembled a coalition
____________________________________

Scott Brown is a Republican in the mold of Cheney and Bush and their ilk - no thank you.

Posted by: tierra | Jan 17, 2010 11:00:54 PM

I know you're a big advocate of Glass-Steagall and must admit the argument that it's repeal was a significant cause of the financial meltdown is much stronger than trying to blame it on Barney Frank.

Posted by: Skip |

Just wait till you see Barney's new bill. It's a Fat Cat Bankers dream. Builds the next bailout right into the law. No need crafting a new TARP, cuz Barney sets a 4 trillion dollar amount that can be authorized after a maximum 8 hour debate.

Codifying moral hazard. We are in deep doo.

Posted by: Foghorn Leghorn | Jan 17, 2010 10:15:21 PM

It was wrong of the Massachusetts Legislature and Governor Deval Patrick to undue the law they passed in 2004 concerning senatorial replacement and a Scott Brown victory would be a perfect lesson for them.

Posted by: Camron Barth | Jan 17, 2010 9:45:26 PM

"That's why the Dems, as soon as they got back in power, moved to strengthen those rules and regulations including reenacting Glass-Steagall. .....oh wait"


I know you're a big advocate of Glass-Steagall and must admit the argument that it's repeal was a significant cause of the financial meltdown is much stronger than trying to blame it on Barney Frank.

Posted by: Skip | Jan 17, 2010 9:36:17 PM

If the Democrats lose, they will ask for a recount to keep Brown from being sworn in.

Posted by: Kelly | Jan 17, 2010 9:21:39 PM

Scott Brown has assembled a coalition of Democrats, independents, and Republicans, women and men, young and older voters. He’s moderate on some social issues and conservative on fiscal issues. He’s an excellent fit for Massachusetts!

Posted by: Camron Barth | Jan 17, 2010 9:05:25 PM

Post a comment





 

POLITICAL VIDEOS