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NIE Report: Iran Halted Nuclear Weapons Program Years Ago

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December 03, 2007 11:51 AM

ABC News' Martha Raddatz, Jonathan Karl, Luis Martinez, Kirit Radia and Jennifer Duck Report: In a stunning reversal of Bush administration conventional wisdom, a new assessment by U.S. intelligence agencies concludes Iran shelved its nuclear weapons program over four years ago.

"We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program," reads a declassified version of the National Intelligence Estimate key findings.

"We judge with moderate confidence that the earliest possible date Iran would be technically capable of producing enough highly enriched uranium (HEU) for a weapon is late 2009."

The entire NIE report will remain classified, however the office of the Director of National Intelligence released a declassified version of the key findings that can be read HERE.

The new intelligence report could create an embarrassing situation for the United States as it pushes for a third United Nations resolution against Iran for its nuclear activities.

The Bush administration reacted swiftly Monday, arguing that while the latest intelligence report is "positive news," they won't abandon their strategy of applying "intensified international pressure" on Iran.

Calling the new intelligence "complicated" National Security Advisor Steven Hadley explained the intelligence community has known for a few months there was "new information" with Iran's nuclear weapons program. 

President Bush was told in August or September that "new information" with Iran's nuclear program could be coming out but the president was only informed last Wednesday that the nuclear weapons program in Iran was halted in 2003.  Vice President Cheney knew a week before the President was informed because he sat in on preliminary meetings, according to Hadley.

Hadley said the President was told in August-Sept to keep using the same talking points as he was using before when speaking on Iran.  "He [Bush] was not told to stop talking about Iran's nuclear weapons program.  He was not told to change what he says about it.  What he was told was, we have new information; it is interesting; it is going to take us some time to understand it," Hadley explained.

However Hadley confirmed the intelligence was wrong in 2005 when the intelligence report said Iran's nuclear weapons program still existed.  "We thought they had that program -- we did, indeed, in 2005."

Hadley urged the international community to "turn up the pressure on Iran" using diplomatic isolation, financial pressure, and UN sanctions. President Bush may speak about the new intelligence report findings in a press conference scheduled for Tuesday.

A senior U.S. official who has read the intelligence report told ABC News that while the NIE concludes "there has been a halt when it comes to weaponization" of Iran's nuclear weapons program, that doesn't mean Iran might not try to resume weaponization of their nuclear program in the future.

It's "an intentions judgment, not a capabilities judgment," said a senior U.S. official. In other words, the Iranians could restart this aspect of there program, but for whatever reason, they have halted it for now.

The Iranian government has admitted they are maintaining a nuclear enrichment program. IAEA reports confirm Iran continues to work on perfecting centrifuge technology that could be used to create highly enriched uranium that could eventually be used in a nuclear weapons program.

The finding that Iran shelved its nuclear weapons program in 2003 is based on new intelligence gathered this year. The NIE report was scheduled to be completed in the spring and sent to Congress, but was delayed because of the new information.

December 3, 2007 in Vote 2008: Democrats | Permalink | User Comments (175)

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Don't worry my warmongering friends. W will just attack them in order to spread freedom and democracy. Because spreading freedom by occupying sovereign nations always works out in the end...

Posted by: dan | Dec 3, 2007 1:28:26 PM

"In a stunning reversal of Bush administration conventional wisdom"

Talk about the ultimate in sarcasm!!!

Posted by: Roy | Dec 3, 2007 1:28:31 PM

No WMD didn't stop us before! Onward to Tehran with an arrogant self-righteous swagger! Oh, and make sure there is no post-invasion plan for Iran either. That'll make the conflict last and defense contractors can make a heck of a lot MORE money! Quick wars are just a bad investment if you manufacture things used by the military.

Posted by: Brent | Dec 3, 2007 1:41:25 PM

"A senior U.S. official...” Are you as tired of unnamed sources as I am? The whole story is useless; because MSM continues allow attribution without substantiation!

Posted by: Bushie | Dec 3, 2007 1:41:31 PM

This could have a big impact on our foreign policy! Unfortunately, as we all know too well, this administration doesn't pay much attention to NIEs...

Posted by: BobN | Dec 3, 2007 1:47:00 PM

Oh good. This will give our stateside party-before-country sympathizers another reason to hate GW more than the murdering terrorists who killed 3000 of our friends and neighbors in a single day, just because GW beat two liberal lunatics.

Posted by: Happy Trails | Dec 3, 2007 1:47:08 PM

'It's "an intentions judgment, not a capabilities judgment," said a senior U.S. official.' This one idiotic comment speaks volumes about our current foreign (and domestic)anti-terror policy-- it's what they are thinking about doing that we have to punish them for. I haven't read this much doublespeak nonsense since Orwell's '1984'. By the way, recent letterhead legislation by our own doublespeak poster boy does in fact make citizens criminally liable for their 'antagonistic thoughts, opinions, or intentions'. It's "Minority Report", but without the cool special effects or Tom Cruise. Iran may as well resign themselves to the fact that we intend to attack them with or without their provocation, and if they are smart will continue to develop a coalition of their own to discourage the warmongering cabal currently running our country.

Posted by: h5mind | Dec 3, 2007 1:47:53 PM

Today's NIE report stands in stark contrast to the White House’s propaganda campaign laying the groundwork for military action against Iran, a campaign that dates back almost six years—to Bush’s 2002 State of the Union address in which he designated Iran as a founding member of the “axis of evil.” Since then, this drumbeat has waxed and waned as other concerns—primarily the disastrous invasion and occupation of Iraq—have often commanded center stage. Now, with the Bush administration approaching its final year in office, a renewed push and a shorter fuse have become increasingly evident.

Posted by: Roy Eidelson | Dec 3, 2007 1:48:53 PM

Oh No!!!!
In your face, Georgie!
Now you and your Zionist buddies will have to find someone else to attack. I can only hope that you are held accountable on Judgement Day for every person killed in Iraq for no good reason. Not only should George Bush be impeached but also brought up on criminal charges for defrauding and lying to the American public. For Shame!!

Posted by: Roger A. | Dec 3, 2007 1:56:39 PM

Funny thing is we Americans or I should say most of us paying attention knew Iran had no nukes, why is it that our President and his administration didn't know? We need to bring our troops home now and yes with our tails between our legs, no use in killing anymore of our soldiers for nothing or innocent civilians in the middle east. They want us out, and we have no reason to be there. The longer we stay the worse it will get for us here at home, Wake Up America.

Posted by: Terry | Dec 3, 2007 2:05:14 PM

Iran is just using what they can for a smoke screen,what about there secret faculities that may be underground,for uranium making,those areas,Iran is just trying to through us off,we need to attack them before it's to late.

Posted by: Steve | Dec 3, 2007 2:06:35 PM

The question is, what kind of coverage will we see on you network news.
I'm betting little if any.

Posted by: dras | Dec 3, 2007 2:15:10 PM

Those dang, liberal U.S. Intelligence Agencies!

Posted by: Michael | Dec 3, 2007 2:16:47 PM

"For evil to prevail, it requires good people to do nothing." Keep doing nothing liberals but complaing about how bad the United States is.

Posted by: dan | Dec 3, 2007 2:18:50 PM

So this means that Bu$hCO has been lying for the last 3 years as they have had and have been suppressing this information the whole time and yet still claimed that Iran was working on Nukes. Is that not impeachable?

Posted by: Yossarian | Dec 3, 2007 2:20:04 PM

We all know the war with IRAN is to be sure the oil reserves are not cut off from the United States - that is why we went into IRAQ. This is not a bad reason, but as we all know, it was executed so badly that we now sit in the mess that we are in. Fact #1: The United States NEEDS Oil to survive - day to day. We will eventually build up a alternative energy policy, but not anytime soon - if within our lifetimes. Therefore, the war for oil is just, but dishonest.

IRAN has no nukes. Im sure we'll put 5-10 nukes in the vacinity and quitely warn the middle east to behave. Wow, sounds like we'd need a large base in the center of the Middle East to accomplish this???

Fact 2: US Builds 15 x 15 mile base in IRAQ (curious???) This will be manned by 50,000 American soldiers. The will watch and be guardians to the World Oil Reserve for the next 100 years - or until it runs out.

Fact 3: Due to the Greed of certain Heads of State - the entire plan was botched from the beginning and is just now beginning to be cleaned up. Funny how the timing works for a new administration.

Posted by: BronxBoy7117 | Dec 3, 2007 2:20:49 PM

""For evil to prevail, it requires good people to do nothing." Keep doing nothing liberals but complaing about how bad the United States is.

Posted by: dan | Dec 3, 2007 2:18:50 PM"

And you keep apologizing for the war-profiteering war criminals dan.

Posted by: Innocent Bystander | Dec 3, 2007 2:28:36 PM

I think that George W. Bush should be embarressed. Congress should worry about Impeaching than about Iran.

Posted by: Mark | Dec 3, 2007 2:30:37 PM

Frankly, I don't believe a word of this report. However, I did get a kick out of reading that the NIE is "moderately confident" that Iran stopped developing nukes in 2003.

Iran is secretly developing nuclear as we speak. Regardless of how you feel about the current administration don't let that blind you from lying dogs like the Iranian government.

Posted by: kbwest | Dec 3, 2007 2:31:01 PM

"we judge with moderate confidence".........gee that makes me feel good that your moderately confident they wont have the junk for a nuke until '09. Please dont say 'slam-dunk', ok?

Posted by: whatthe? | Dec 3, 2007 2:32:50 PM

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