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Live-Blogging During Florida Primary Results by Rick Klein

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January 29, 2008 3:55 PM

10:07 pm: Thanks, as always, for reading. Check back tomorrow for a full wrap -- and a look ahead -- in The Note.

9:49 pm: No landslide, but "sweet nonetheless," McCain says of his win. (And no one is more relieved than Gov. Charlie Crist and Sen. Mel Martinez, flanking him on stage.)

What a journey for John McCain. He leaves the evening the odds-on favorite for the nomination. An incredible run -- and all the pressure is on Mitt Romney now. His money may not even matter Feb. 5 -- even he can't spend enough to be competitive everywhere, and he's up against a guy that's about to get all the free media in the world.

McCain is thanking his rivals -- and leaves Rudy until last. He calls him an "exceptional American leader" -- and he's thrilled that he'll be leading in a different way tomorrow.

9:36 pm: Mitt Romney isn't going away. "I think it's time for the politicians to leave Washington, and for the citizens to take over," he said -- taking it right to McCain all over again. This fight is NOT over.

9:34 pm: ABC's Jake Tapper is reporting that Giuliani will indeed drop out tomorrow, and endorse McCain. Those discussions we reported earlier have come to something, it would appear.

9:20 pm: "It's not over until it's over," Giuliani says -- but he was quoting someone in the crowd; not sure that was actually the message he wanted to deliver tonight. Quoting Teddy Roosevelt. "Like most Americans, I love competition," he says. "Elections are about a lot more than just candidates." This sounds like a goodbye -- not a let's fight to the finish type of speech. Kind words for everyone -- even Mitt Romney and Ron Paul!

He's speaking in past tense -- at the very least laying the groundwork for an exit, to my ears.

9:17 pm: ABC is calling it for McCain - HUGE night for him. HUGE. He's on the move now, and if Rudy falls into line next, he's really well on his way. Not to count out Romney -- he's still got all the money in the world -- but this is the biggest race yet, and you've got to think the money starts flowing back to McCain.

9 pm: This just in -- just off the phone with a Giuliani supporter who says discussions are underway now for Rudy to drop out of the race and endorse John McCain, as early as tomorrow, most likely in California. Still working the story, but my colleague George Stephanopoulos has a source inside the McCain campaign that confirms the discussions, among high-level advisers to both men, about the logistics and timing of an announcement.

8:23 pm: More thoughts on Rudy -- my read is if he's dropping out, it's less likely to be tonight than tomorrow. And if he's going to endorse, he's been fairly clear that he would be with John McCain. If McCain wins tonight and gets Giuliani's endorsement tomorrow (two big what-ifs, granted), it would go  along way toward establishing him as the odds-on favorite.

8:19 pm: ABC's Karen Travers offers these results, with 85 percent reporting in Pasco County, a bellwether: McCain 36.7, Romney 29.3, Rudy 16.8

8 pm ET: ABC PROJECTIONS AT POLL CLOSING TIME: Clinton will win the Democratic vote, with Obama second and Edwards third. No surprises there. We'll hear from Clinton around 8:05 pm.

On the Republican side, we're projecting a two-way fight for first between McCain and Romney (remember what I said earlier about a late night?). For third, it's a fight between Giuliani and Huckabee.

The headline out of this: Rudy, of course. Third place essentially ends his campaign; he now has to decide whether he realizes it or not, or whether he wants to go through the motions of a debate in California and then a Super Tuesday that could embarrass him. Or does he want to cash in now, and endorse John McCain? He'll be the most closely watched man tonight.

As for first -- McCain has to be pleased with the exit polls that give him a slight edge among voters who put the economy foremost in their minds. That's a blow to Romney. But the high number of religious voters -- more likely to help Romney than McCain.

7:58 pm: Real-time results, as they roll in:

7:08 pm: First off -- there are no results to report. And second -- to equate the Democratic contest (where no delegates are at stake) with the Republican one (where 57 -- the most yet) would not be responsible.

7:02 pm: The exit polls have generally been pretty close -- but back in New Hampshire, the early waves suggested a narrow Obama victory, when in fact it was a convincing Clinton win. So sprinkle salt liberally on any numbers -- and as a policy, I should note, ABC does not release exit poll information until after all polls close in a state, so as not to influence the vote with polling data that could be unreliable.

6:43 pm: The Obama campaign sends out this teasing e-mail: "Based on exit polling data our campaign is prepared to call the delegate count at 7 pm eastern."

That would be Clinton 0, Obama 0, Edwards 0, Gravel 0, Rick Klein 0. (But don't try to draft me to run -- I'm not old enough to be president.)

5:56 pm: Polls don't close for another two hours, so no calls or projections until then, but we have a first burst of preliminary exit poll data. This is from ABC's Peyton Craighill, on a Republican primary where the economy and Iraq have jostled for position, depending on the candidate who's pushing the issue:

"The economy emerged as top concern for Republican primary voters in Florida, as it has throughout this primary season. Just under half of all Republican voters named the economy as their top voting issue while  about  two in 10 said terrorism and slightly fewer named illegal immigration. About four in 10 say they were looking chiefly for a candidate who 'shares my values' and about a third wanted a candidate who 'has the right experience.' "

"Preliminary exit poll results suggest there were fewer seniors turning out compared with 2000, 37 percent now vs. 44 percent in 2000. Conservative turnout is slightly up, with six in 10 voters saying they were conservative and a quarter characterizing their views as 'very conservative,' somewhat higher than the past Republican primaries. Party turnout looks like other Florida primary elections, with about eight in 10 primary voters identifying themselves as Republicans and 17 percent as independents."

5:35 pm: Polls close no later than 8 pm statewide. We're expecting early voting/absentee numbers to be released shortly thereafter; they will be an indication of whether the Giuliani campaign is right that they have built up a big edge among those voters. As for the rest of the results, we're expecting most to roll in after 9 pm ET -- so it could be a long-ish night...

5:23 pm: On Florida for the Democrats -- whether Florida and Michigan delegates are seated depends almost entirely on the nominees. Assuming the nomination is wrapped up well advance of the DNC (still my working assumption), I can't imagine that the presumptive nominee would want a bunch of angry non-delegates making noise outside the convention, so they are likely to be seated eventually.

As for the long-term damage to the party in FL, I think it's minimal. The state GOP is thrilled that the Democrats have been ignoring the state, but remember that it's not even February -- Democrats have nine months (and a very long general election season) to make up with Florida. Ultimately, the party's prospects in that most critical of swing states will depend on the nominee far more than pledges and primary campaigning.

5:19 pm: Another note, from my colleague Tahman Bradley: According to CMAG, a company that tracks political advertising, Mitt Romney has again outspent all of his Republican rivals COMBINED in Florida, with $5.3 million spent compared to Rudy Giuliani's $3 million and John McCain's $2 million. This is becoming a pattern -- he accomplished the same feat in Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan, and Nevada -- and it's important context to keep in mind while everyone sorts through tonight's results. If he wins Florida, the McCain camp will say he bought the race. If he doesn't win, the spin will be that he couldn't buy it.

Either way, it's another reason why Florida is slightly more important to him than to John McCain: Recall that McCain is slightly stronger in the Feb. 5 states, so he'd seem better able to withstand a defeat in Florida. However, Romney can keep writing those checks, and McCain needs to keep the fundraising dollars flowing for him to stay in the mix.

4:45 pm ET: I'm not sure of the likelihood of an Obama surge in Florida. The fact that Sen. Clinton is paying even a little attention to the state is getting pretty big coverage in Florida, though the Clinton folks like to point out that Obama has had ads (via a national cable buy) airing on Florida TV stations.

As for a backlash against Clinton to punish her over Florida -- I only could have seen that happen in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, or South Carolina -- the four states that the "pledge" was designed to protect. They've all voted already, so focusing on Florida a little bit toward the end seems like a risk-free proposition -- unless you consider that she could be spending tonight in a state that actually awards delegates, on Feb. 5. 

3:50 pm ET: Rick Klein from ABC's The Note here -- live-blogging all night as returns coming from Florida, with the latest from the ground. Check back throughout the afternoon and evening for updates.

First off -- a few notes and observations.

All eyes will be on Rudy Giuliani tonight. His campaign plane is headed to California tomorrow morning, in advance of the Republican debate on the Left Coast Wednesday night -- but the big question is whether Rudy himself will be on it.

He's had a terrible run coming into the primary, probably made worse by the fact that he's repeatedly committed a cardinal sin of a lagging candidate: He's entertained hypotheticals about what happens if he loses, as he did today on "Good Morning America." The fact that he's quoted as considering reassessing his candidacy if he loses feeds the negative storylines regarding his campaign.

As for what Giuliani has to do tonight, his decision to bet the house on Florida means he needs to win if he's going to make a coherent argument that he can become the nominee, after the drubbings he's taken in the five major GOP contests to date.

A Republican source with close ties to Rudyland tells me that Giuliani has a "comeback kid"-style speech written, but that it will only be delivered if he finishes second or first. If he's third (or worse), the question quickly becomes whether he wants to risk a lopsided loss in his home state of New York on Feb. 5 -- and even if he's up for the flight to Los Angeles on Wednesday.

A quick word or two on the Democrats -- the Clinton and Obama campaigns have held dueling conference calls for much of the day, debating the question of whether Florida matters. The 10-second version: The Clinton campaign says yes (in large part because Sen. Clinton is going to win big) and the Obama campaign says no (in large part because Sen. Obama's folks know she is going to win big).

The Clinton campaign is arguing that the contest matters because the people of Florida are making it matter, with grass-roots campaigning and big Democratic turnout in Florida; they'll hammer their contention home with an 8 pm rally featuring Sen. Clinton in South Florida. But there's a major flaw in their argument: Everyone is talking about this campaign turning into a battle for delegates, and there are ZERO delegates at stake in Florida today.

So as much as the Clinton campaign would like a different storyline, after the South Carolina drubbing and the Ted Kennedy endorsement, a big "win" in Florida is unlikely to break through on a night that's about the McCain-Romney fight and Rudy Giuliani's political future.

January 29, 2008 in Vote 2008: Democrats, Vote 2008: Republicans | Permalink | User Comments (63)

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Hi Rick -- another day, another primary/caucus! Your efforts and insights are appreciated, as always. What do you consider the likelihood in FL of 1) a last-minute surge in support for Obama, given the S.C. results and the Kennedy endorsements, and/or 2) a backlash against Clinton for the *appearance* (depending upon whom you ask) of having reneged on her promise not to campaign there (or in MI) at the behest of the DNC?

Posted by: Mark | Jan 29, 2008 4:42:37 PM

Although my earliest thoughts were biased toward Romney, I actually voted for McCain today. After some study, I learned that Mitt does, on occasion, flip-flop. That is something that I really do not admire in a person. I also thought Mitt went way too far in accusing John of being a liar/dishonest.

Posted by: jamesbond007 | Jan 29, 2008 4:59:18 PM

Rick - I've read the DNC MAY allow delegates to be seated IF another later caucus were run this Spring in compliance with DNC rules. Any chance of that? Does the Obama camp push for that option hoping the tide has turned by then?

Posted by: Kevin | Jan 29, 2008 5:00:58 PM

the only reason Hillary is bringing up Florida is because she wants to take the "Thunder" away from Barak Obamas win in South Carolina . .Plain and simple

Posted by: roger | Jan 29, 2008 5:06:42 PM

Interesting points. I wonder if the Dems will pay a significant price, or any price at all, in Florida next November because of the DNC's decision to strip the state party of its convention delegates, in retaliation for Florida Democrats' having moved up their primary date. Do you get any sense of that?

Posted by: Mark | Jan 29, 2008 5:09:57 PM

I was upset by McCain's harsh mischaracterizations of Romney's statements. He has proven to me that he really is what is wrong with Washington.

I voted for Romeny to fix the Economy!

Posted by: Daniel | Jan 29, 2008 5:27:20 PM

Win or take second tonight, going forward, I wonder how Senator McCain will (or can) cope with Governor Romney's bottomless pockets? In addition, Romney's clearly the GOP establishment pick, creating double jeopardy for McCain.

Posted by: Mark | Jan 29, 2008 5:27:50 PM

Mark - I think that will depend on the nominee. If Clinton wins it, and moves to seat both FL and MI, then probably not, especially depending who the Repub nominee is. I think the entire electorate will be fired up again in Nov for another big shootout. However, Clinton is very polarizing and I think it sets up the 2000 and 2004 pattern of red state/blue state.
If Obama wins it by enough, he can seat MI (with its uncommitteds) and FL (depending by how things pan out tonite and look like a uniter.

Posted by: Kevin | Jan 29, 2008 5:27:57 PM

When do the results come out tonight? I've been googling this all day to no avail. Thanks in advance, Rick!

Posted by: Taha | Jan 29, 2008 5:29:44 PM

AFTER SERVING MY COUNTRY FOR OVER 20 YEARS, IT MAKES ME VERY ANGRY TO THINK THAT MY VOTE WILL NOT BE USEFUL TO SEN. HILLARY CLINTON, BECAUSE SOMEONE DECIDED THAT THE ELECTORAL CANIDATES WILL NOT BE SEATED AT THE DEMOCRATIC CONVENTION! ARE WE GOING BACK TO BEFORE THE REVOLUTION? "TAXATION WITHOUT REPRESENTATION". THE BEST EXAMPLE OF AN OXYMORON THAT I CAN THINK OF IS:"HE OR SHE IS AN HONEST POLITICIAN."

Posted by: CLAIRE MOULDEN | Jan 29, 2008 5:34:50 PM

I hope you're right, Kevin! Last thing we need is a dispirited Democratic Party in Florida come November, regardless of the nominee. And I agree with your perception that, if successful, Clinton will go on to serve as a deeply polarizing reminder of America's "red/blue blues."

Posted by: Mark | Jan 29, 2008 5:36:13 PM

There's another flaw in the Clinton's argument Rick---the groundswell of democratic voters in Florida has more to do with the state property tax initiative on the ballot than their love of Hillary Clinton, agreed?

Posted by: Jared | Jan 29, 2008 5:49:50 PM

I'm really starting to like Mitt Romney in the past few days. I like the fact that he does have a brilliant financial and economic mind and this nation sorely needs that. We cannot have national security if we have a failing economy.

I hope Mitt does well in Florida tonight.

Posted by: Ann B. | Jan 29, 2008 6:00:44 PM

I am leaning to vote for John McCain. He is a person of morals and principles (no flip-flopping) and stands by what he believes even when faced with strong opposition. Plus, his track record of working together with Democrats shows promise of uniting America.

Posted by: Taha | Jan 29, 2008 6:15:46 PM

How far off have the Republican exit polls been in past contests this primary season, if you know?

Posted by: Tim | Jan 29, 2008 6:29:19 PM

were in fl and voted for hucabee but the news isnt reporting that in delagets hes ahead of mccain

Posted by: davidpatrick344 | Jan 29, 2008 6:37:19 PM

Drudge oposted the exit poll results in terms of the projected percentages.

McCain 34.3%
Romney 32.6%
Giuliani 15.3%
Huckabee 12%

Posted by: Irwin Nowick | Jan 29, 2008 6:56:30 PM

Why aren't the Dem results on the frontpage of ABC?
ABC disrespecting hundreds of thousands of democratic voters.

Posted by: Jaz | Jan 29, 2008 7:06:16 PM

Rick -

Hillary Clinton's win in New Hampshire was very impressive because of Obama's huge lead going in, but her win was hardly "substantial." She won by less than 3 percentage points IIRC.

Posted by: WolverineDem | Jan 29, 2008 7:11:32 PM

Rick Klein, I think this is irresponsible, a vote for the Dem nomination happened in Florida. Delegates will be allocated proportionally.

There is "dispute" over whether or not they will be seated. But nonetheless those delegates WILL go to the DNC - Most analysts believe they will be seated since it would not be a good tactic on the Democratic side to insult a "swing state".

Posted by: Jaz | Jan 29, 2008 7:23:50 PM

despite the media desperately trying to reduce our Florida votes, we democrats have come out in huge numbers. And when you have a population that is more spread out over all the different colors and creeds, you get a more Super Tuesday like state. We are a very national type audience here but you won't hear about our votes. You will just here about the Obama juggernaut. But Florida is an indication of what is to come for Obama in states where republicans can't vote against Hillary, where Independents can't help out Obama, and where half the population is one race vs another. When you get a very generic state like Florida, you see the numbers and right now its Clinton 52%, Obama 29%, Edwards 16%. And as of right now, Hillary Clinton has more votes, in a beauty contest vote, than Romney, McCain, Obama, Edwards, OR Rudy. So this fairy tale story is going to have to shift because one week from today, its going to be unavoidable. Huge numbers here in Florida. Huge widespread leads. Rezko's trial in just 3 weeks. The combo of SuperTuesday and that trial is going to definitely change the media because even they will not be able to ignore it.

Posted by: 2009 Where Are You? | Jan 29, 2008 7:49:42 PM


Clinton 212,860

McCain 171,180

Romney 151,533

Obama 118,477

Edwards 62,992

Guiliani 88,120

Posted by: 2009 Where Are You? | Jan 29, 2008 7:57:30 PM

Romney will pull out a victory in Florida and will be the Republican Nominee

Posted by: Christina Brown | Jan 29, 2008 8:11:52 PM

Does anyone else feel sorry for Rudy. In his first attempt at national politics, he had to trust his strategists and they gave him what could be the worst campaign advice in history - ignore the early states. The campaign seems like it never really started.

Posted by: andy | Jan 29, 2008 8:12:08 PM

2009 - Numbers don't lie, but they don't tell the whole story either. Look at the exit polls for Dems. 59% female and 74% over age 45 (40% over 60). Does that look like the FL Dem profile? It would appear that in spite of the large numbers, certain segments of the electorate stayed home.

Posted by: Kevin | Jan 29, 2008 8:14:17 PM

now why is no one on CNN or MSNBC has noticed that despite our vote not counting that Clinton has more votes than ALL candidates? I know there are no delegates but come on, she didn't campaign, and Obama is brushing it off because he didn't campaign. Well no one did. CNN did say that looking into SuperTuesday, if Obama does not get more of the Latino vote, which he lost 59% - 30%, and more of the white vote, which he lost 76% - 24%, he will only win ONE state and just barely - Georgia - next Tuesday. He doesn't get more than 33% in any state based on their calculations using South Carolina's numbers. He gets 70% of the black vote VS Hillary's 24%. This is CLEARLY a race vote but the numbers of black voters outside of South Carolina (black vote was 55% of all Dems) rest at about 18%. Maybe it was a Clinton gimmick to raise the issue, but I think the Oprah thing and her sudden and very obvious departure, helped to start the questions rolling even before Bill's big damn tired mouth. Right now it is Clinton 348,000 her nearest competitot on both sides - McCain at 282,000. Now dammit, THAT is newsworthy. She didn't campaign! All the republicans did campaign, and if tonight were a free for all, open vote for President, she beats all of them by about 14 pts. But its not news? :(

Posted by: 2009 Where Are You? | Jan 29, 2008 8:14:50 PM

Feel sorry for RUDY!?! Talk to the victims familes or the dying first responders on 911. Rudy doesn't deserve ANY sympathy. He's scum!

Posted by: wake up! | Jan 29, 2008 8:15:34 PM

2009 - I forgot I wanted to add that yes, it is still impressive that so many voters did turn out for Clinton.

Posted by: Kevin | Jan 29, 2008 8:17:24 PM

youth voters are always a much smaller part of the equation. But think about it. This was a vote that we were NOT supposed to even bother with. We were told, it means nothing. And we have a higher turnout than the Republicans? This state is much more indicative of what a typical large state is like. We do have a huge Cuban population but they mostly vote 3-1 republican, so this is not a Cuban vote for Clinton.

She is leading ALL of the candidates and that is amazing considering her dead campaign, all the mojo that Obama has, all the money that Guiliani, McCain, AND Romney have spent in this state.

In fact I have never ever seen a Clinton ad yet. I see about 4 - 6 Rudy ads per day as I leave CNN on in the background throughout my work and home.

It should be noticed that a candidate that didn't campaign has a 75,000 vote lead over the nearest competitor. But you are not hearing it.

Now make this into an Obama landslide that doesn't count. This would be 'further proof' that the tidalwave of support is crushing Hillary. But you don't hear it.

Romney saying he'd crush her in an election. He isn't winning his own house, let alone cleaning up someone elses. McCain's a pretty cool guy, and I wouldn't be crushed if he won it all. I don't agree with a lot of his ideas but at least I think he is honest and tells it like it is, whether we like it or not. So, right now, the story should be Clinton with huge numbers, and McCain hanging on tough.

Posted by: 2009 Where Are You? | Jan 29, 2008 8:23:05 PM

I suspect Clinton is "winning" (no delegates) in FL almost solely on name recognition. Obama is less well known there because he's honored his promise not to "work it" in Florida. In addition, he's quietly building impressive organizations -- and poll numbers -- in several smaller Midwestern and Rocky Mountain states which team Clinton appears to be ignoring for the most part. I live in one of those states, and will be caucusing for Obama next Tuesday. En garde, Clintons!

Posted by: Mark | Jan 29, 2008 8:25:28 PM

2009 - However, if you use the Iowa vote breakdown, Obama would win a lot of states. Cherry-picking stats is never a reliable gauge. Even the Clinton campaign would suggest there are a number of states they won't win on Tues. The fairest assessment is that there will be no reliable gauge until after next Tues. That will certainly clear up the picture going forward.

Posted by: Kevin | Jan 29, 2008 8:26:03 PM

The Clintons have unfairly waged a negative campaign against Barak Obama using dirty tactics...hopefully, the voters will realize the deception and give Obama the nod...he IS the great shining star of Democracy's crown!

Posted by: Christopher Grant | Jan 29, 2008 8:28:31 PM

In Iowa repulicans could cross over and vote against Clinton. Can't do that in Florida. Look at the white vs black vote in all states. It has been roughly the same. white candidates get about 76% of that white vote. Black candidates get about 78% of the black votes. The issue becomes this spread. The percentages stay about the same, outside of South Carolina and perhaps Georgia. The problem is for Obama that the black vote is much less of the main population in most of the Super Tuesday states. And if that gap doesn't shrink, he cannot win, even with 100% of the black vote in EVERY SuperTuesday State. We weren't supposed to vote in Florida, it was worthless we were told. But we turned out in HUGE numbers even beating all the republican candidates. She has a huge lead on ALL candidates and that can't be put down to luck or a joke, or a non-story.

Posted by: 2009 Where Are You? | Jan 29, 2008 8:30:43 PM

Rick - The Pasco returns are usually a reliable barometer. McCain is holding his lead and steadily building a vote cushion (about 20K). There's still significant votes going to Rudy and Huckabee which I think hurts Romney more than McCain.

Posted by: Kevin | Jan 29, 2008 8:33:21 PM

Regrettably, it's my belief that with McCain, as with all the other GOP contenders, all you'd really get is a rehash of the last (by then) eight years of Bush. Same failed policies, same incompetence, same disconnect from the American people. Same old wine, new bottle. No thanks.

Posted by: Mark | Jan 29, 2008 8:34:55 PM

Mark - I agree, but it would perhaps be a refreshing breeze in politics to see McCain's brand of change up against Obama's. New Republicanism vs. new Democratism. Give people the chance to form a new paradigm.

Posted by: Kevin | Jan 29, 2008 8:38:32 PM

i am glad to see a realist obama is not viable you can spin any way you want he got 25percent of the white vote and 78percent of the black vote.how can any of you that beleive in democracy disinfranchise over 1 million voters shame on you.oh thats right clintons not leftist enough for those of you who are lotus eaters,get a life those of us with young kids and bills to pay will NOT vote for obama

Posted by: don tufts | Jan 29, 2008 8:46:56 PM

2009 - Again, not to diminish the enthusiasm of FL voters, the numbers Clinton is posting are solid. Don't get too worked up until all results are in. The south FL polls closed earlier and skew more Dem. The panhandle results will come in later. There is no evidence to support that Repubs did cross over in any great numbers in IA. NV is actually a better barometer and things were much closer there. In fact, even in NH (and NV as well as SC), Obama handily won most of the counties. He lost in the pop. centers with the biggest vote troves.

Posted by: Kevin | Jan 29, 2008 8:48:12 PM

Kevin - I wouldn't disagree. Were I able to anoint the candidates for each party this year, it would indeed be Obama and McCain, for just the reason you've stated. McCain's by far the best of the GOP bunch, particularly because he's not the entrenched GOP establishment's "fair-haired boy," as was Bush in 2000, and Romney this year. That alone endears him to me at least a bit! I find myself musing lately about an Obama/Hagel ticket. Think it, or some similarly radical but fascinating combination, could fly?

Posted by: Mark | Jan 29, 2008 8:48:32 PM

Mark - I could foresee an Obama/Daschle ticket. But Hagel might fly as well. Unless he reaches to the West or South. I could see Tim Kaine being interested. Of course, this is just idle speculation. It could just as easily be Hillary Clinton/Bill Clinton (no prohibition on exes serving as VP).

Posted by: Kevin | Jan 29, 2008 8:54:55 PM

Rick:

Have you seen the exits from the Democratic race? 31% absentee voters went 49-29 for Clinton. Among those who decided whom they were going to vote for over a month ago or more, Clinton won 64-25. But voters who decided within the last month? 46-42 Obama. In the last week? 38-31 Obama. In the last 3 days? 45-40 Obama. Clinton won those choosing a candidate today, but she was in Florida this week and was the only candidate getting media attention down there promoting Florida's delegates.

Interesting splits I think.

Posted by: Scott | Jan 29, 2008 9:01:32 PM

very true Kevin. I am in Broward and wondering what the numbers are like here? It is sort of like, a shock? I thought 'well here goes, my vote, in the toilet, cause it doesn't count' and I thought that after Kennedy, and Bill's BIG MOUTH, and the media sort of riding the wave, that it would be a close match cause Obama's folks would want to show that the tide was still running high. And to say no one knows Obama, that is not true. I can testify to the fact that he ran ads on Comcast network, Channel 28 CNN, 4 ads a day that I saw. No one was supposed to campaign in Florida on the Democratic side. But he did. They were beautiful ads with a former Professor talking, and clips when he was young, out of havard, and then clips of him in Africa as a young man with a LOT of hair - he looked very happy and cool. Those ads ran for at least the last 10 days, perhaps two weeks. I just think that the spreads have to change for him. The latino vote and the black vote still make up about 24% of the U.S. population, maybe 25% so if these 3-1 spreads don't change, it is going to be a much closer battle after next Tuesday. Now, I have a question - what happens in a brokered convention? What if Obama has 800 delegates, Clinton has 1,300, Edwards has 500 (just an example!), what happens? Out come the guns and it's wild wild west time? lol. Anyone know how to solve that divide?

Posted by: 2009 Where Are You? | Jan 29, 2008 9:03:15 PM

Scott - Bingo. That is the meat of the matter here. Combine that with the voter demographics for the exits and you can see that a lot seniors voted early and absentee. Any results need to be viewed through that prism. Still, as pointed out by 2009, if Clinton pulls in over a million votes, that's impressive.

Posted by: Kevin | Jan 29, 2008 9:09:39 PM

I am reading comment up top, trying to diminish this. Folks, Obama ran ads in this state, on comcast cable networks, direct TV and on radio. I am a political junkie; I work at home and have the TV tuned in to politics 16 hours a day. I have not seen an Edwards ad, hell, I haven't seen a Romney or McCain ad really, I don't think. I did see Rudy ads and Obama '08 ads (in the end he says something like ' we are not repulican states or democratic states, we are the UNITED states). He did campaign here through those ads. I never saw or heard a Clinton ad in this state with my TV on and burning up. At least realize that she is leading McCain still by 75,000 votes and leading Obama by almost 200,000 votes. Let's not say that Obama is unknown. His face has been EVERYwhere, and he has had so much press it has been an amazing run. He is not an unknown candidate, especially among african-american voters proud to have him running so strong. McCain just won! woo hoo!!!!! McCain ahaha Romney meany

Posted by: 2009 Where Are You? | Jan 29, 2008 9:14:20 PM

In 1996, the Republicans knew they were going to lose the general election so they nominated an old party stalwart who had been a war hero. It was a way to say, "Thank you for your service to America, Bob Dole." So... thank you for your service to America, John McCain.

Posted by: andy | Jan 29, 2008 9:15:52 PM

PS Absentee ballots here in Florida = 4 - 8% of the total cast. I live here, I am used to this figure seeing as my 90 year old Gran votes absentee. Those ballots are incredibly small when considering the total of several million votes.

Posted by: 2009 Where Are You? | Jan 29, 2008 9:16:14 PM

2009 - Clinton wins FL, no doubt. Scott also points out that if the full Dem. electorate were out today, the results might have been closer (my point earlier).
As to a brokered convention (a valid possibility), Clinton has jabbed Edwards as well (last-minute SC robocalls), so he either throws in with Obama on the change bandwagon or curries favor with the Clintons.

Posted by: Kevin | Jan 29, 2008 9:17:12 PM

Kevin - GREAT comments!! I really appreicate having a pleasant dialogue without the harsh partisan stuff! I never even thought about Clinton getting 1,000,000 votes, yike!!

Andy, that was a great insight as well about 1996. Dole was an admirable man. He didn't go negative. He was not hateful. I am so surprised by Romney. He is so handsome but so ugly at the same time. He just attacks without hesitation and even his compliments are sort of a side-swipe in the kisser.

Rudy is being pretty kind in this speech right now. That is a nice turn to see.

Posted by: 2009 Where Are You? | Jan 29, 2008 9:22:18 PM

Rick - Things are looking good for McCain. He's building his lead here and a 50k vote cushion. Looks like the Crist and Martinez endors. did help. Guiliani will give some added traction. Huckabee's seemed kind off sweet on McCain as well. If he drops, McCain has a real shot of wrapping it up next Tues. I do, however, see the Dems going well into the Spring.

Posted by: Kevin | Jan 29, 2008 9:23:13 PM

anyone see a McCain/Guiliani ticket? that would be a tough ticket! We would have to have Clinton/Obama. That would be a dream ticket for both. 2 sides, 2 ideas. Let the best team win.

Posted by: 2009 Where Are You? | Jan 29, 2008 9:26:11 PM

2 more crazy thoughts -

1.) could Obama and Clinton be sort of extending this 'dislike' only to get over it really quick and unite to win? could it be a tactic to generate votes for EACH of them? And then unite. Just fighting to get big turnout that will combine after the fireworks?

2.) could the media's shift from loving Clinton as the inevitable and then shifting to Obama the hopeful and change man, could the media A.) be trying to flex it's muscle, swaying public opinion just to see their own power? and B.) is the media so afraid of being labeled racist that they had planned all along, knowing the way that Super Tuesday could fall based on race spreads in the population, that they would promote Obama, give him loads of fair time. Not ask really tough questions so that when (if) the tide turned they couldn't be labelled racist for their coverage of Clinton, if she should breakout a lead? I mean it is a way of avoiding being in trouble with race. The media can say HEY we gave Obama equal time, but now the shift has come and we have to cover it as we see it.

I think the media is loving this power game they have. They move us around based on the stories they run, or don't run.

Anybody think any of this could be true? Please be kind, I am not trying to start a fight, I am curious if this has crossed anyone elses mind.

Posted by: 2009 Where Are You? | Jan 29, 2008 9:33:37 PM

you know, there was a lot of action after South Carolina. Alot of folks just screaming about the tidal wave and yet tonight, it is nearly a ghost town.

Romney is thank Bush for keeping us safe. Imagine if it had been Obama or Clinton in on 9/11. Can you imagine the diatribes about how they two of them let America down. That they failed to protect us. How the Democratic weaklings let the terrorists kill us. How their spending blind made them not see the threat. Can anyone hear that diatribe? I can. But instead Bush was a hero. Giuliani was a giant. That part I don't get. If Hillary were Mayor on that dreadful day, it would have been her fault that this country was struck, that N.Y. was her responsibility and she failed the citizens of N.Y. but no one said this about Rudy, no one dared. But you can sense the double standard. The hawks reward their leaders, even if their leaders dropped the ball. They blame it on everyone and anyone else they can. And when the sissy dems are in, it is their sissiness (word?) that gets us hit. Ridiculous argument. And Romney is promising jobs? Anyone realize how many people this man fired that weren't management? Any idea how many times he cut costs by firing the entire building, without cutting CEOs or VPs salaries? Yikes!!

Posted by: 2009 Where Are You? | Jan 29, 2008 9:41:10 PM

2009 - You might like to look at the exit polling data to jigger your calculations from before. A few interesting things. Clinton won the Hispanic vote 2-1, Obama won Blacks 70-27. Clinton won Whites 53-22 (Edwards also had 22). 31% voted absentee or early voting (that's big) and means recent events were not necessarily factored in. Also 18% think U.S. not ready to elect a woman; 28% not ready to elect an African-American. Does that make you think?

Posted by: Kevin | Jan 29, 2008 9:43:20 PM

yes Kevin, I forgot about early voting. That figure is larger than absentee. Yeah, 18% and 28% is up there but at least it is not a majority against.

what do you think about those ideas I had earlier? Any possibility that the media is just twisting this into a reality series for the year? I mean if they ganged up on Obama when he was clearly winning, it would look very bad. They would be branded racist for sure and would probably deserve that term if they did that. But if you take Clinton and Edwards together it was still that same 76% that is showing in almost all the states. CNN broke it down somewhat, but said very clearly based on South Carolina that this split doesn't bode well for Obama if it doesn't shift. Even if he gets a third of the white vote and 100% of his own, the total number of black votes outside of Georgia and maybe Louisiana and Mississippi, is not a large portion of any population, not large enough to overcome the white vote. He MUST get more of that vote. Winnning 100% of the black vote,let's say in California, and his 25% of the white vote, he would roughly be somewhere around 34% give or take 2. And that is what CNN was saying. And they have been heavy into the Obama wave in the last 2 or 3 weeks. It was inevitable all the time, before Jan, but once that first vote came in, it has been a huge swing to him. Even after N.H. they couldn't see how they had polled so wrong. Anyway, I wonder what is next now? Will they treat each other better? Fake a war between each other.

It does get people motivated to vote. And once they are used to voting, like in a Primary they are more likely to vote in the General Election. They kiss and make up, they unite in Denver, and damn if they wouldn't be hard to beat!!

Posted by: 2009 Where Are You? | Jan 29, 2008 9:59:01 PM

ouch, Andersen Cooper just had a sort of ugly Clinton remark about not doing interviews last night but is doing one in the next few minutes on CNN.

I wonder if he thinks she didn't get an idea through calling and polling she would win big here? Delegates or not?

Come on Andersen, that was an unnecessary not very nice dig.

That is what I mean, this sort of undercurrent of little quips.

Oh well. I don't think Hillary is getting 1,000,000 votes though. Although on the Republican Map it showed the Broward is STILL not reporting yet? What is wrong with my damn county! Get on with it! lol

We're a mess. :)

Posted by: 2009 Where Are You? | Jan 29, 2008 10:07:52 PM

2009 - On a personal note, I am going to have to differ. I think the "experience" argument is a non-starter. No one has the experience to be President. A lot of "inexperienced" politicians have gone on to become great Presidents. Age and seasoning are not the only criteria. Obama was president of the Harvard Law Review (not many can say that). I went to college with Obama and know he has the intellectual capacity, plus he has the charisma to convince people to try things. I do think it is time to turn the page on the Politics of the past and the us/them mentality. Clinton has good ideas, but her combative personality and old-school baggage won't help us move forward.

Posted by: Kevin | Jan 29, 2008 10:35:33 PM

boy, watch Romney come out tomorrow like a Hydra, attacking with all heads(those head that support all sides of the same issue at least twice). He can get ugly despite looking really pretty, but man they are saying that people who worried about the economy went for McCain and NOT Romney and that was Mitt's issue.

I think Romney would be a very negative but tough person to beat because going negative sometimes works and he is that, that is for sure. But hopefully McCain will roll him now and just be done with it. I wish we could get some kind of quicker resolution for our side so that we can focus on November. I just doubt that Super T is going to decide it all. In fact I think it won't be able to decide it all. But what happens in the end? If we have this split in delegates, what do they do? Beg the other one to side with them? Edwards' delegates are not enough to give either one the victory. We could have a split in which Edwards has lets say just 350 delegates cause he is running at about 17% in each state he has run in. 350 delegates won't give Clinton the 2,025 needed, nor Obama and Clinton right now has many more Super Delegates than Obama. She is sitting with 230 delegates and Obama has 152. It is going to be a bit more out of wack after next week though I don't think there will be a huge lead either way, but what happens at the convention if Clinton has 1,500 and Obama has 1,500. Edwards' 350 doesn't give either one the win? Then what?

Posted by: 2009 Where Are You? | Jan 29, 2008 10:37:09 PM

2009 - Super T may clarify the picture. If Obama cannot get enough wins/delegates then it's over. Clinton's delegates are more of a given (she is like an incumbent thanks to Bill). I don't see her getting whupped anywhere like in SC. If Obama does better than expected in place like MA and CA, then more people will believe in his viablity. Also, people may begin to look at who can beat McCain. The polls don't help Clinton there (and if you believe in polls, you've got to respect their basic results). There's always time for polls to move, but I'm talking as things stand now.

Posted by: Kevin | Jan 29, 2008 10:53:10 PM

2009 - I read it, and it's mostly bogus. You cannot compare pre-election polls and exit polls. People can "lie" in pre-election polls, but exit polling is proven fairly accurate. The NH pre polls had shown a solid Clinton lead which evaporated after the Iowa bounce, but re-surfaced at the election. They are only snapshots. The only poll that matters is election day. In SC, pre polls predicted a modest Obama lead, and not a 2-1 rout.
Yes, people do do vote anthropomorphically to a substantial degree. That is why Clinton wins the women's vote and older voters, but it would be distasteful to suggest sexism and ageism; the same as racism is wrong.
I think Obama's battle is not with the race issue as much as the establishment issue. The majority of the Dem establishment is older and white. He loses those demos not on race, but on principle. Older liberals with loyalties to the only "shining light" for Dems of the past 20 years are reluctant to buck the system and vote for change. "Dance with them that brung you." I don't think the media is bolstering Obama, except for the fact that he makes more compelling TV. He is easily more charismatic than Hillary, and the problem is that the charismatic Clinton can't overshadow the supposed candidate, so what to do?!

Posted by: Kevin | Jan 29, 2008 11:32:11 PM

I am a conservative Republican. I will not vote for McCain if he wins the Republican slot. To say that conservatives support McCain's platforms is highly inaccurate. There is a reason why the NYT endorsed him... they know that the real conservatives will not support McCain, will stay home rather than vote for him, and thus the Democrat wins by default. The sheeple in Florida fell right into that trap. Let's hope and pray that if Huckabee bows out he will throw his support behind Romney who is more conservative than McCain. I'd rather have a little flip-flop than a lot of Democrat.

Posted by: Jack | Jan 29, 2008 11:34:17 PM

Well it looks like McCain has fooled the uniformed voter. McCain lied through his teeth this last weekend and Florida bought it. Shame on you McCain for riding on the back of the men and women of the armed forces. Voting for someone whose very name rises and falls on the success of the Iraq war is dangerous. McCain has already proved he will lie and cheat his way to forcing us into thinking he is the hero of the Iraq war. Shame on you McCain!

Posted by: Conservatives Unite | Jan 30, 2008 3:54:36 PM

Is anyone concerned at all at the number of Hispanics voting for McCain? Looks like Charlie Crist and Martinez and looking for Cuban votes and the three of them are pandering together. See this was McCain’s goal all along. He says he puts America first, and then lets illegal immigrants in the back door. How can amnesty be putting American citizens first? It makes me sick how much McCain lies! All he needed to do is to try to get Americans to over look this “little indiscretion” and he could get a double whammy, Hispanic vote, plus the moderate conservatives who have been confused. It’s time for America to back a true conservative—Go Mitt Romney fight to the finish!

Posted by: Jamie | Jan 30, 2008 4:07:21 PM

As a Florida registered Democrat, I just want to say that not counting the Florida delegates in the primary would be completely unacceptable. If Obama wins the nomination fair and square with all the Florida primary votes counted, I will probably vote for him. However, if Obama receives the Democratic nomination without the Florida delegates counted, under no circumstances will I vote for him. Instead, I will abstain, vote for an independent, or even seriously consider voting Republican. I am sure many other Florida democrats plan the same action, especially after what happened with Al Gore in 2000!

Posted by: Tom | Feb 5, 2008 7:21:01 PM

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