Live-Blogging During Florida Primary Results by Rick Klein

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Live-Blogging During Florida Primary Results by Rick Klein

January 29, 2008 3:55 PM

10:07 pm: Thanks, as always, for reading. Check back tomorrow for a full wrap -- and a look ahead -- in The Note.

9:49 pm: No landslide, but "sweet nonetheless," McCain says of his win. (And no one is more relieved than Gov. Charlie Crist and Sen. Mel Martinez, flanking him on stage.)

What a journey for John McCain. He leaves the evening the odds-on favorite for the nomination. An incredible run -- and all the pressure is on Mitt Romney now. His money may not even matter Feb. 5 -- even he can't spend enough to be competitive everywhere, and he's up against a guy that's about to get all the free media in the world.

McCain is thanking his rivals -- and leaves Rudy until last. He calls him an "exceptional American leader" -- and he's thrilled that he'll be leading in a different way tomorrow.

9:36 pm: Mitt Romney isn't going away. "I think it's time for the politicians to leave Washington, and for the citizens to take over," he said -- taking it right to McCain all over again. This fight is NOT over.

9:34 pm: ABC's Jake Tapper is reporting that Giuliani will indeed drop out tomorrow, and endorse McCain. Those discussions we reported earlier have come to something, it would appear.

9:20 pm: "It's not over until it's over," Giuliani says -- but he was quoting someone in the crowd; not sure that was actually the message he wanted to deliver tonight. Quoting Teddy Roosevelt. "Like most Americans, I love competition," he says. "Elections are about a lot more than just candidates." This sounds like a goodbye -- not a let's fight to the finish type of speech. Kind words for everyone -- even Mitt Romney and Ron Paul!

He's speaking in past tense -- at the very least laying the groundwork for an exit, to my ears.

9:17 pm: ABC is calling it for McCain - HUGE night for him. HUGE. He's on the move now, and if Rudy falls into line next, he's really well on his way. Not to count out Romney -- he's still got all the money in the world -- but this is the biggest race yet, and you've got to think the money starts flowing back to McCain.

9 pm: This just in -- just off the phone with a Giuliani supporter who says discussions are underway now for Rudy to drop out of the race and endorse John McCain, as early as tomorrow, most likely in California. Still working the story, but my colleague George Stephanopoulos has a source inside the McCain campaign that confirms the discussions, among high-level advisers to both men, about the logistics and timing of an announcement.

8:23 pm: More thoughts on Rudy -- my read is if he's dropping out, it's less likely to be tonight than tomorrow. And if he's going to endorse, he's been fairly clear that he would be with John McCain. If McCain wins tonight and gets Giuliani's endorsement tomorrow (two big what-ifs, granted), it would go along way toward establishing him as the odds-on favorite.

8:19 pm: ABC's Karen Travers offers these results, with 85 percent reporting in Pasco County, a bellwether: McCain 36.7, Romney 29.3, Rudy 16.8

8 pm ET: ABC PROJECTIONS AT POLL CLOSING TIME: Clinton will win the Democratic vote, with Obama second and Edwards third. No surprises there. We'll hear from Clinton around 8:05 pm.

On the Republican side, we're projecting a two-way fight for first between McCain and Romney (remember what I said earlier about a late night?). For third, it's a fight between Giuliani and Huckabee.

The headline out of this: Rudy, of course. Third place essentially ends his campaign; he now has to decide whether he realizes it or not, or whether he wants to go through the motions of a debate in California and then a Super Tuesday that could embarrass him. Or does he want to cash in now, and endorse John McCain? He'll be the most closely watched man tonight.

As for first -- McCain has to be pleased with the exit polls that give him a slight edge among voters who put the economy foremost in their minds. That's a blow to Romney. But the high number of religious voters -- more likely to help Romney than McCain.

7:58 pm: Real-time results, as they roll in:

7:08 pm: First off -- there are no results to report. And second -- to equate the Democratic contest (where no delegates are at stake) with the Republican one (where 57 -- the most yet) would not be responsible.

7:02 pm: The exit polls have generally been pretty close -- but back in New Hampshire, the early waves suggested a narrow Obama victory, when in fact it was a convincing Clinton win. So sprinkle salt liberally on any numbers -- and as a policy, I should note, ABC does not release exit poll information until after all polls close in a state, so as not to influence the vote with polling data that could be unreliable.

6:43 pm: The Obama campaign sends out this teasing e-mail: "Based on exit polling data our campaign is prepared to call the delegate count at 7 pm eastern."

That would be Clinton 0, Obama 0, Edwards 0, Gravel 0, Rick Klein 0. (But don't try to draft me to run -- I'm not old enough to be president.)

5:56 pm: Polls don't close for another two hours, so no calls or projections until then, but we have a first burst of preliminary exit poll data. This is from ABC's Peyton Craighill, on a Republican primary where the economy and Iraq have jostled for position, depending on the candidate who's pushing the issue:

"The economy emerged as top concern for Republican primary voters in Florida, as it has throughout this primary season. Just under half of all Republican voters named the economy as their top voting issue while about two in 10 said terrorism and slightly fewer named illegal immigration. About four in 10 say they were looking chiefly for a candidate who 'shares my values' and about a third wanted a candidate who 'has the right experience.' "

"Preliminary exit poll results suggest there were fewer seniors turning out compared with 2000, 37 percent now vs. 44 percent in 2000. Conservative turnout is slightly up, with six in 10 voters saying they were conservative and a quarter characterizing their views as 'very conservative,' somewhat higher than the past Republican primaries. Party turnout looks like other Florida primary elections, with about eight in 10 primary voters identifying themselves as Republicans and 17 percent as independents."

5:35 pm: Polls close no later than 8 pm statewide. We're expecting early voting/absentee numbers to be released shortly thereafter; they will be an indication of whether the Giuliani campaign is right that they have built up a big edge among those voters. As for the rest of the results, we're expecting most to roll in after 9 pm ET -- so it could be a long-ish night...

5:23 pm: On Florida for the Democrats -- whether Florida and Michigan delegates are seated depends almost entirely on the nominees. Assuming the nomination is wrapped up well advance of the DNC (still my working assumption), I can't imagine that the presumptive nominee would want a bunch of angry non-delegates making noise outside the convention, so they are likely to be seated eventually.

As for the long-term damage to the party in FL, I think it's minimal. The state GOP is thrilled that the Democrats have been ignoring the state, but remember that it's not even February -- Democrats have nine months (and a very long general election season) to make up with Florida. Ultimately, the party's prospects in that most critical of swing states will depend on the nominee far more than pledges and primary campaigning.

5:19 pm: Another note, from my colleague Tahman Bradley: According to CMAG, a company that tracks political advertising, Mitt Romney has again outspent all of his Republican rivals COMBINED in Florida, with $5.3 million spent compared to Rudy Giuliani's $3 million and John McCain's $2 million. This is becoming a pattern -- he accomplished the same feat in Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan, and Nevada -- and it's important context to keep in mind while everyone sorts through tonight's results. If he wins Florida, the McCain camp will say he bought the race. If he doesn't win, the spin will be that he couldn't buy it.

Either way, it's another reason why Florida is slightly more important to him than to John McCain: Recall that McCain is slightly stronger in the Feb. 5 states, so he'd seem better able to withstand a defeat in Florida. However, Romney can keep writing those checks, and McCain needs to keep the fundraising dollars flowing for him to stay in the mix.

4:45 pm ET: I'm not sure of the likelihood of an Obama surge in Florida. The fact that Sen. Clinton is paying even a little attention to the state is getting pretty big coverage in Florida, though the Clinton folks like to point out that Obama has had ads (via a national cable buy) airing on Florida TV stations.

As for a backlash against Clinton to punish her over Florida -- I only could have seen that happen in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, or South Carolina -- the four states that the "pledge" was designed to protect. They've all voted already, so focusing on Florida a little bit toward the end seems like a risk-free proposition -- unless you consider that she could be spending tonight in a state that actually awards delegates, on Feb. 5.

3:50 pm ET: Rick Klein from ABC's The Note here -- live-blogging all night as returns coming from Florida, with the latest from the ground. Check back throughout the afternoon and evening for updates.

First off -- a few notes and observations.

All eyes will be on Rudy Giuliani tonight. His campaign plane is headed to California tomorrow morning, in advance of the Republican debate on the Left Coast Wednesday night -- but the big question is whether Rudy himself will be on it.

He's had a terrible run coming into the primary, probably made worse by the fact that he's repeatedly committed a cardinal sin of a lagging candidate: He's entertained hypotheticals about what happens if he loses, as he did today on "Good Morning America." The fact that he's quoted as considering reassessing his candidacy if he loses feeds the negative storylines regarding his campaign.

As for what Giuliani has to do tonight, his decision to bet the house on Florida means he needs to win if he's going to make a coherent argument that he can become the nominee, after the drubbings he's taken in the five major GOP contests to date.

A Republican source with close ties to Rudyland tells me that Giuliani has a "comeback kid"-style speech written, but that it will only be delivered if he finishes second or first. If he's third (or worse), the question quickly becomes whether he wants to risk a lopsided loss in his home state of New York on Feb. 5 -- and even if he's up for the flight to Los Angeles on Wednesday.

A quick word or two on the Democrats -- the Clinton and Obama campaigns have held dueling conference calls for much of the day, debating the question of whether Florida matters. The 10-second version: The Clinton campaign says yes (in large part because Sen. Clinton is going to win big) and the Obama campaign says no (in large part because Sen. Obama's folks know she is going to win big).

The Clinton campaign is arguing that the contest matters because the people of Florida are making it matter, with grass-roots campaigning and big Democratic turnout in Florida; they'll hammer their contention home with an 8 pm rally featuring Sen. Clinton in South Florida. But there's a major flaw in their argument: Everyone is talking about this campaign turning into a battle for delegates, and there are ZERO delegates at stake in Florida today.

So as much as the Clinton campaign would like a different storyline, after the South Carolina drubbing and the Ted Kennedy endorsement, a big "win" in Florida is unlikely to break through on a night that's about the McCain-Romney fight and Rudy Giuliani's political future.

January 29, 2008 in Tancredo, Tom, Thompson, Fred | Permalink | User Comments (63)

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despite the media desperately trying to reduce our Florida votes, we democrats have come out in huge numbers. And when you have a population that is more spread out over all the different colors and creeds, you get a more Super Tuesday like state. We are a very national type audience here but you won't hear about our votes. You will just here about the Obama juggernaut. But Florida is an indication of what is to come for Obama in states where republicans can't vote against Hillary, where Independents can't help out Obama, and where half the population is one race vs another. When you get a very generic state like Florida, you see the numbers and right now its Clinton 52%, Obama 29%, Edwards 16%. And as of right now, Hillary Clinton has more votes, in a beauty contest vote, than Romney, McCain, Obama, Edwards, OR Rudy. So this fairy tale story is going to have to shift because one week from today, its going to be unavoidable. Huge numbers here in Florida. Huge widespread leads. Rezko's trial in just 3 weeks. The combo of SuperTuesday and that trial is going to definitely change the media because even they will not be able to ignore it.

Posted by: 2009 Where Are You? | Jan 29, 2008 7:49:42 PM

Clinton 212,860

McCain 171,180

Romney 151,533

Obama 118,477

Edwards 62,992

Guiliani 88,120

Posted by: 2009 Where Are You? | Jan 29, 2008 7:57:30 PM

Romney will pull out a victory in Florida and will be the Republican Nominee

Posted by: Christina Brown | Jan 29, 2008 8:11:52 PM

Does anyone else feel sorry for Rudy. In his first attempt at national politics, he had to trust his strategists and they gave him what could be the worst campaign advice in history - ignore the early states. The campaign seems like it never really started.

Posted by: andy | Jan 29, 2008 8:12:08 PM

2009 - Numbers don't lie, but they don't tell the whole story either. Look at the exit polls for Dems. 59% female and 74% over age 45 (40% over 60). Does that look like the FL Dem profile? It would appear that in spite of the large numbers, certain segments of the electorate stayed home.

Posted by: Kevin | Jan 29, 2008 8:14:17 PM

now why is no one on CNN or MSNBC has noticed that despite our vote not counting that Clinton has more votes than ALL candidates? I know there are no delegates but come on, she didn't campaign, and Obama is brushing it off because he didn't campaign. Well no one did. CNN did say that looking into SuperTuesday, if Obama does not get more of the Latino vote, which he lost 59% - 30%, and more of the white vote, which he lost 76% - 24%, he will only win ONE state and just barely - Georgia - next Tuesday. He doesn't get more than 33% in any state based on their calculations using South Carolina's numbers. He gets 70% of the black vote VS Hillary's 24%. This is CLEARLY a race vote but the numbers of black voters outside of South Carolina (black vote was 55% of all Dems) rest at about 18%. Maybe it was a Clinton gimmick to raise the issue, but I think the Oprah thing and her sudden and very obvious departure, helped to start the questions rolling even before Bill's big damn tired mouth. Right now it is Clinton 348,000 her nearest competitot on both sides - McCain at 282,000. Now dammit, THAT is newsworthy. She didn't campaign! All the republicans did campaign, and if tonight were a free for all, open vote for President, she beats all of them by about 14 pts. But its not news? :(

Posted by: 2009 Where Are You? | Jan 29, 2008 8:14:50 PM

Feel sorry for RUDY!?! Talk to the victims familes or the dying first responders on 911. Rudy doesn't deserve ANY sympathy. He's scum!

Posted by: wake up! | Jan 29, 2008 8:15:34 PM

2009 - I forgot I wanted to add that yes, it is still impressive that so many voters did turn out for Clinton.

Posted by: Kevin | Jan 29, 2008 8:17:24 PM

youth voters are always a much smaller part of the equation. But think about it. This was a vote that we were NOT supposed to even bother with. We were told, it means nothing. And we have a higher turnout than the Republicans? This state is much more indicative of what a typical large state is like. We do have a huge Cuban population but they mostly vote 3-1 republican, so this is not a Cuban vote for Clinton.

She is leading ALL of the candidates and that is amazing considering her dead campaign, all the mojo that Obama has, all the money that Guiliani, McCain, AND Romney have spent in this state.

In fact I have never ever seen a Clinton ad yet. I see about 4 - 6 Rudy ads per day as I leave CNN on in the background throughout my work and home.

It should be noticed that a candidate that didn't campaign has a 75,000 vote lead over the nearest competitor. But you are not hearing it.

Now make this into an Obama landslide that doesn't count. This would be 'further proof' that the tidalwave of support is crushing Hillary. But you don't hear it.

Romney saying he'd crush her in an election. He isn't winning his own house, let alone cleaning up someone elses. McCain's a pretty cool guy, and I wouldn't be crushed if he won it all. I don't agree with a lot of his ideas but at least I think he is honest and tells it like it is, whether we like it or not. So, right now, the story should be Clinton with huge numbers, and McCain hanging on tough.

Posted by: 2009 Where Are You? | Jan 29, 2008 8:23:05 PM

I suspect Clinton is "winning" (no delegates) in FL almost solely on name recognition. Obama is less well known there because he's honored his promise not to "work it" in Florida. In addition, he's quietly building impressive organizations -- and poll numbers -- in several smaller Midwestern and Rocky Mountain states which team Clinton appears to be ignoring for the most part. I live in one of those states, and will be caucusing for Obama next Tuesday. En garde, Clintons!

Posted by: Mark | Jan 29, 2008 8:25:28 PM

2009 - However, if you use the Iowa vote breakdown, Obama would win a lot of states. Cherry-picking stats is never a reliable gauge. Even the Clinton campaign would suggest there are a number of states they won't win on Tues. The fairest assessment is that there will be no reliable gauge until after next Tues. That will certainly clear up the picture going forward.

Posted by: Kevin | Jan 29, 2008 8:26:03 PM

The Clintons have unfairly waged a negative campaign against Barak Obama using dirty tactics...hopefully, the voters will realize the deception and give Obama the nod...he IS the great shining star of Democracy's crown!

Posted by: Christopher Grant | Jan 29, 2008 8:28:31 PM

In Iowa repulicans could cross over and vote against Clinton. Can't do that in Florida. Look at the white vs black vote in all states. It has been roughly the same. white candidates get about 76% of that white vote. Black candidates get about 78% of the black votes. The issue becomes this spread. The percentages stay about the same, outside of South Carolina and perhaps Georgia. The problem is for Obama that the black vote is much less of the main population in most of the Super Tuesday states. And if that gap doesn't shrink, he cannot win, even with 100% of the black vote in EVERY SuperTuesday State. We weren't supposed to vote in Florida, it was worthless we were told. But we turned out in HUGE numbers even beating all the republican candidates. She has a huge lead on ALL candidates and that can't be put down to luck or a joke, or a non-story.

Posted by: 2009 Where Are You? | Jan 29, 2008 8:30:43 PM

Rick - The Pasco returns are usually a reliable barometer. McCain is holding his lead and steadily building a vote cushion (about 20K). There's still significant votes going to Rudy and Huckabee which I think hurts Romney more than McCain.

Posted by: Kevin | Jan 29, 2008 8:33:21 PM

Regrettably, it's my belief that with McCain, as with all the other GOP contenders, all you'd really get is a rehash of the last (by then) eight years of Bush. Same failed policies, same incompetence, same disconnect from the American people. Same old wine, new bottle. No thanks.

Posted by: Mark | Jan 29, 2008 8:34:55 PM

Mark - I agree, but it would perhaps be a refreshing breeze in politics to see McCain's brand of change up against Obama's. New Republicanism vs. new Democratism. Give people the chance to form a new paradigm.

Posted by: Kevin | Jan 29, 2008 8:38:32 PM

i am glad to see a realist obama is not viable you can spin any way you want he got 25percent of the white vote and 78percent of the black vote.how can any of you that beleive in democracy disinfranchise over 1 million voters shame on you.oh thats right clintons not leftist enough for those of you who are lotus eaters,get a life those of us with young kids and bills to pay will NOT vote for obama

Posted by: don tufts | Jan 29, 2008 8:46:56 PM

2009 - Again, not to diminish the enthusiasm of FL voters, the numbers Clinton is posting are solid. Don't get too worked up until all results are in. The south FL polls closed earlier and skew more Dem. The panhandle results will come in later. There is no evidence to support that Repubs did cross over in any great numbers in IA. NV is actually a better barometer and things were much closer there. In fact, even in NH (and NV as well as SC), Obama handily won most of the counties. He lost in the pop. centers with the biggest vote troves.

Posted by: Kevin | Jan 29, 2008 8:48:12 PM

Kevin - I wouldn't disagree. Were I able to anoint the candidates for each party this year, it would indeed be Obama and McCain, for just the reason you've stated. McCain's by far the best of the GOP bunch, particularly because he's not the entrenched GOP establishment's "fair-haired boy," as was Bush in 2000, and Romney this year. That alone endears him to me at least a bit! I find myself musing lately about an Obama/Hagel ticket. Think it, or some similarly radical but fascinating combination, could fly?

Posted by: Mark | Jan 29, 2008 8:48:32 PM

Mark - I could foresee an Obama/Daschle ticket. But Hagel might fly as well. Unless he reaches to the West or South. I could see Tim Kaine being interested. Of course, this is just idle speculation. It could just as easily be Hillary Clinton/Bill Clinton (no prohibition on exes serving as VP).

Posted by: Kevin | Jan 29, 2008 8:54:55 PM

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