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Live Blogging on Campaign Returns, Democratic Debate by Rick Klein

January 15, 2008 4:50 PM

11 pm: Final thoughts -- first, on the debate. Edwards again kept things most to his message, and Obama parried the race questions that dominated the first quarter of the debate -- he probably benefits to some degree just by having the discussion. Clinton deflected the tough stuff on race and got most aggressive on substance -- maybe the closest she's been to dominating the field in months.

And on the Republican primary in Michigan -- wow, what a mess it leaves the field in. Mitt Romney lives another day, and John McCain is again knocked off his front-runner's perch (he only got a week back on top). From the sound of it, Michigan may have given Romney his voice, the same way New Hampshire gave Clinton hers. Now we get to see what he does with it.

That's it for tonight -- but only a few more hours and you can read about it all in tomorrow morning's Note...

10:58 pm: Obama's children are "above average." Was that a Garrison Keillor reference?

10:43 pm: This is a real point of distinction for Edwards, and a valuable one in South Carolina, on guns. For as far left as he's tacked, it's not happening on the Second Amendment, and that could be worth a few points.

10:34 pm: "Not in Illinois -- they all voted for me," Obama says, about a split among black and Hispanic Democrats. he's had his best moments tonight rising above issues of race relations.

10:29 pm: Edwards finds his voice when he talks about money in politics -- it's effective stuff, to a point. The question is whether he's at that point already.

10:28 pm: On energy, an overall strong performance by Clinton. As soon as this debate turned to substance, she's turned it on.

10:22 pm: Sen. Clinton had the details ready to go on Yucca Mountain -- that's knowing your crowd. Edwards: "the science that has been revealed since that time . . . " Ooh.

10:14 pm: That was a strong swing at a curveball by Clinton, when asked about denying federal funding for colleges that don't allow military recruiters on campus.

10:07 pm: They're getting to some meat on Iraq -- but I didn't see any of the candidates distinguish him or herself. But I think Obama may have repositioned himself a tad, talking about stationing strike forces outside of Iraq, if possible.

10:02 pm: Clinton's question for Obama -- won't you co-sponsor my bill with me? (Couldn't she have asked that question in the Senate cloakroom?) This is her seeking to rise above her rivals, and make it look like Obama is following her lead on Iraq. Obama's answer was brilliant, though I'm not sure he even realized how brilliant it was: "We can work on this, Hillary."

10 pm: A good question from Edwards -- don't the people who are giving you money expect something? Obama's answer was fine, but little that didn't sound pre-packaged, even insidery.

9:58 pm: A funny moment -- the warning about going over their allotted time, and John Edwards to Hillary Clinton: "That's you." Now things get interesting -- questioning each other.

9:56 pm: Sen. Clinton is answering the questions on the economy with depth and range -- she's a policy wonk at heart.

9:48 pm: RNC oppo alert: Hillary Clinton just said she voted for a bill, but was happy it didn't become law. Bet that's on YouTube by the end of the debate.

9:46 pm: John Edwards doesn't like talking about votes he regrets, but there's no one in the business better at taking a tough question and turning it into a succinct summation of his stump speech.

9:43 pm: Brando -- you're right. There's a lot not to like in this debate, nearly half way through.

9:39 pm: From ABC's David Wright: Seems like the only debate so far is over whether Obama's messy desk is a sign that he's not up to the job.  Obama arguing he has vision, but needs staff to handle the details -- the Type B president. Clinton did seem to get the better of him in that exchange, though he did score back a point or two in rebuttal.  Not surprising he should lose that round.

9:38 pm: From ABC's Eloise Harper: Clinton, when asked if Bob Johnson's comments were out of bounds, said '"yes they were and he has said  that."

Not exactly -- the only statement we have seen from Bob Johnson were  defending his comments saying he was referring to community organizing - not to drug use. We have never head Johnson admit that he was saying anything inappropriate.

Here is the exchange:

      MR. RUSSERT:  Were his comments out of bounds?         
                                          
      SEN. CLINTON:  Yes, they were, and he has said that.      

9:30 pm: OK, I'm a politics guy -- but even I'm missing the substance. This debate is on the news, yes, and that's great -- but what about Iraq, or healthcare? So far, this debate is all about leadership qualities, politics of race, and other intangibles.

9:29 pm: ABC's David Wright is missing Kucinich: Would have been more lively.  They're all so busy playing nice, there's no real debate going on.

9:23 pm: Intriguing question for Clinton about the negative things she's said about Obama -- what's it mean for the fall? "The issue is . . . who is ready," Clinton says. That does not constitute an answer; it is, however, a campaign message.

9:20 pm: What party is Mitt Romney in, railing against all of these problems brought on by "Washington"? Just about everything he's talking about was a shortcoming of a Republican president and the Republican Congress.

9:18 pm: Likeable enough? "I absolutely regret it," Obama said. But it was a joke -- why regret it?

9:17 pm: Anyone else notice that Romney didn't wait for McCain to finish speaking for him to start his own speech. And Romney's "victory of optimism over Washington-style pessimism" -- takes it right at McCain.

9:14 pm: ABC's Z. Byron Wolf is watching the debate and the Michigan returns and wondering if coming in lower than "uncommitted" will spell the end of Duncan Hunter's campaign. He doubts it.

9:11 pm: We are seeing Obama very consciously tread carefully on race. He's smart not to dwell or attack -- how could he play this as a victim and still look like a credible candidate? And ABC's Sunlen Miller points out that Obama was the first to work the word "economy" into a line.

9:09 pm: Obama throws his "overzealous" staff under the bus. He has done this fairly consistently in the campaign, when oppo research goes bad. This will get some play among the oppo researchers for other campaigns.

9:07 pm: So we're right into debate mode: Obama on race: "We can't solve these challenges if we can't come together as a people." He knows this topic is as dicey for him as anyone else in the campaign.

9 pm: ABC is able to call it right at the close of polls! It's a victory for Romney, followed by McCain and then Huckabee. This is HUGE for Romney -- his campaign couldn't say it, but this was their must-win state. Immediate reaction is this keeps things open more than ever, and Romney can make as good a claim as anyone to being the frontrunner. Disappointing for McCain to come in second, of course, and Huckabee can't be happy with being a distant third.

And oh, Clinton will win on the Democratic side, with "uncommitted" to take the silver and Kucinich in third. (Sorry, you still can't go to the debate.)

8:44 pm: Somebody forgot to tell Kucinich he lost his court case. This just in from his campaign: "Still awaiting a decision by the Nevada Supreme Court as to whether he will participate in tonight’s Democratic Presidential debate, Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich will be broadcasting live from a satellite truck outside the Cashman Center beginning at 8 p.m. EST."

Guard the snack tent.

8:37 pm: Again, we're talking early returns -- but Huckabee is way back. He still needs to prove that Iowa wasn't a fluke, and there were indications that Michigan could give him that opportunity. Not so far tonight.

8:30 pm: Early returns -- though of limited worth -- are good for Romney.

8:22 pm: Results are trickling in, and end the suspense: Someone voted for Duncan Hunter. 605 people voted for other candidates.

8:16 pm: A piece of debate news: Dennis Kucinich has lost his legal case, and won't be on stage tonight in Las Vegas, per MSNBC. He will be missed.

8:13 pm: From ABC's Bret Hovell, who is with the McCain campaign tonight in South Carolina: "About 250 people are in a ballroom in downtown Charleston, next door to McCain's hotel. He is watching the returns from the hotel, and will walk over here to deliver a speech win, place, or show in the Michigan primary."

8:08 pm: Results should start rolling in -- very slowly -- soon. This could take a while, unless it's a blowout. Consider this, though: It looks like nobody's going to get knocked out of the race tonight. For all the early talk about the early contests shaping things, sure, they've done that, but they haven't narrowed anything.

7:25 pm: The Clinton campaign fires back with a memo of its own: "Make no mistake -- the Obama campaign had no problems when its supporters and allies in Michigan ran radio ads and other campaign activities urging people to vote for 'uncommitted' as a way to register their support for Senator Obama -- and to give him a chance to compete for those delegates at the national convention. . . .  Now, with polls in recent days showing that effort and their candidate running far behind in both states, the Obama campaign has shifted tactics to say that those who cast a vote in either state [Michigan and Florida] don’t matter. We couldn’t disagree more."

This is mostly navel-gazing, but as I said earlier, Clinton vs. Uncommitted will be a nice little sidebar out of this evening.

7:22 pm: Ed - I really don't know what you're talking about. We have reported extensively, on broadcasts and at abcnews.com, on the Democratic race, including the fight you're referring to. And later tonight, this blog will include extensive coverage of the Democratic debate. But it hasn't started yet, and so I'm blogging about what's actually happening -- a Republican primary election in Michigan.

7:14 pm: I see some commentary below about exit polls -- we at ABC don't report on the voter preference side of them until after the polls close, just FYI.

6:23 pm: Beyond winning and losing, if independents don't show up for John McCain today, what does that say about his broader appeal, and his chances in other states? Michigan, with all the Democrats taking a pass on the state, is his clearest shot to demonstrate his appeal beyond the GOP (part of his strategy for winning primaries on two levels -- with votes, and in presenting himself as the most electable Republican in a general election). If it doesn't happen in Michigan, where can he make it happen?

6:07 pm: Cool new feature -- an actual vote graphic, which we'll be updating throughout the night as returns come in. . . .

6:03 pm: ABC's John Berman has this intriguing nugget: "The Romney campaign seems to be hedging its bets on South Carolina.  Instead of an all-out push in the Palmetto State, Romney is planning a swing through Nevada for at least parts of 2 days leading up to January 19th.  Romney will head to Nevada on Thursday, and stay there Thursday night, leaving John McCain to fight with Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson in South Carolina."

I wonder if the strategy changes with a win tonight; knowing the Romney folks, they've already gamed out all the scenarios.

6 pm ET: Ernst -- our early read is that there are fewer independents and Democrats participating in the Republican primary (as a share of the total) than in 2000. Again, this is preliminary, so take as you will. So far, fewer than 1 in 10 Republican voters are identifying themselves as Democrats; the number was 17 percent in 2000.

5:42 pm ET: A first-blush (and still early) analysis of preliminary exit polls, from ABC polling director Gary Langer: "Preliminary exit poll results in the Michigan Republican primary indicate much less of a turnout among independents there than we saw in the 2000 primary – about a quarter of voters are identifying themselves as independents, compared with 35 percent in 2000, an extraordinary year for independent turnout in the primary."

And this: "The notion that Democrats might cross over and vote in the GOP primary, given the absence of a real Democratic contest, does not look like it's being borne out."

Also, this suggests that Romney's calcuation about how to run in Michigan (as the turnaround artist who could save the economy) was savvy: "The top issue by far on voters minds is the economy  - more than half in the Republican race say it was the single most important issue in their vote, far above the war in Iraq, cited by two in 10," Langer writes.

But we shall see.

5:15 pm ET: Let the spin begin -- on the Democratic side at least. The Obama campaign just sent around a memo essentially urging reporters and pundits to entirely ignore tonight's Democratic results in Michigan, since Hillary Clinton is the only major candidate to appear on the ballot. "The Obama Campaign is not participating in the Primary and has not instructed supporters in Michigan whether or how to vote," the memo reads. "Therefore the results of the primary tonight have no bearing on the Democratic nomination contest."

This will not be the main storyline tonight -- but a sidebar will be how Clinton does against "uncommitted." Some Obama and Edwards supporters -- though not, to our knowledge, anyone officially connected to the campaigns -- have urged Democrats to vote for "uncommitted" as a means of sending an anti-Hillary message. (The New York Times this week reported on one such effort, engineered by Rep. John Conyers Jr., D-Mich., an Obama supporter.)

Hey everyone -- Rick Klein from ABC's The Note here. I'll be online throughout the evening as results begin to pour in from Michigan, and then during the Democratic debate, which starts at 9 pm ET and will air on MSNBC. This is one of those special nights in politics -- great action in both contests -- so be part of the conversation here.

One factoid to get the discussion rolling: New numbers are out today from the Michigan Campaign Finance Network, showing that Mitt Romney has spent more money on ads in the Wolverine State than all of his opponents COMBINED. Romney spent about $2 million on ads, compared to $744,000 by John McCain and $484,00 by Mike Huckabee. If you're tracking such things, this marks the third state (out of three that matter) where Romney has spent more than all of his opponents combined. So far, he has two silvers to show for his millions. Can he afford a third second-place showing? (Maybe "afford" is the wrong choice of words for a self-funded candidate, but you get my point.)

January 15, 2008 in Tancredo, Tom, Thompson, Fred | Permalink | User Comments (70)

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