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Live Caucus Blogging from Des Moines by Rick Klein

January 03, 2008 4:33 PM

8:44 pm CT: OK, that's it for this blog. Stay tuned to ABCNews.com/politics for more from me and my colleagues all night -- and of course, check back with The Note tomorrow...

8:38 pm CT: A very disappointed aide to a losing Democrat points out that the Des Moines Register's much-maligned poll -- shot down by campaigns because it predicted such a large turnout among independents -- is turning out to be accurate.

8:35 pm CT: Let me also pronounce myself surprised that Biden isn't doing better. 0.90 percent as of this moment. There was buzz for him -- but maybe that was just Iowans being nice.

8:33 pm CT: La_DAD - you asked why big turnout is good for Obama -- he was most reliant on first-time caucus goers. So the bigger the turnout, the more of them in theroom, and therefore the better for Obama. Apparently, quite good for Obama in the end.

8:31 pm CT: Dodd is STILL at 0.00. He could get out of this race within the hour at this rate.

8:28 pm CT: Checking in with the GOP -- Fred Thompson stirs. Running third as of this moment, holding off McCain. Wonder if Thompson's secretly disappointed -- he looked like he needed a nap.

8:27 pm CT: It's over way earlier than I thought -- get ready for all kinds of active verbs in the news coverage -- trounces, thumps, blows away... Not to get overheated, since the margin will matter a lot, but this is a very early call on a race we expected to linger at least a bit.

8:26 pm CT: Now that we have winners -- let the spin begin anew. Do not lose sight of the fact that the establishment candidate in both cases lost, and may have lost big. In both cases, the candidate who encapsulated hopes and dreams and aspirations the most seems to have won, at least in Iowa.

8:25 pm CT: ABC CALLS IT FOR OBAMA.

8:22 pm CT: This very precise language from the smart ABC folks who look at the data: "Obama is leading in Standard Delegate Equivalents, and Clinton and Edwards are vying for second." That is NOT a projection, just an indication. And/but...

8:20 pm CT: Cam Parcells: I do think Bloomberg's more likely to run if Huck is the GOP nominee. But there's a long way to go between here and there, and John McCain could be every bit as much a winner tonight if Romney loses.

8:20 pm CT: Clinton campaign pegging turnout at 200K plus. That's way more than the 175K range we've heard for a long time as an optimistic scenario.

8:17 pm CT: Clinton folks are pushing the storyline of a deal between Richardson and Obama possibly contributing to defeat. That may happen. But keep in mind entrance polls gave Obama a slight edge on the way into the caucuses, before any deals could have played out. So maybe she'll lose worse because of a "deal," but she still would have lost.

8:16 pm CT: Quickly checking in with the second tier -- it's really the 10th tier here. Richardson 1.7 percent, Biden 1 percent, Dodd, Kucinich, and Gravel at 0.00. That's not a typo. How can you go on if you're Chris Dodd and you moved your family here and you're at 0.00.

8:12 pm CT: To cut through the spin -- now that everyone basically called it for Huckabee -- this is DEVASTATING to Mitt Romney. Not insurmountable, but terribly, terribly bad. The Romney camp can spin and spin and spin, but he spent $10 million to Huckabee's maybe $1 million here. There's no baseball analogy that explains why you lose in that race. Steinbrenner gets rightfully angry when the Yanks get swept by the Kansas City Royals.

7:58 pm CT: Huckabee wins, per ABC's call!

7:52 pm CT: Again, real numbers: Three-way Democratic tie at 32 at thismoment. 464/1781 precincts (mostly small ones) reporting.

7:48 PM CT: ABC'S Matt Stuart reports that Romney said it was "the first inning in a 50 inning ball game. So, you know, you wanna get on base the first inning but we're planning on doing well." The man cannot do baseball analogies -- possibly disqualifying for the presidency, but who am I to judge?

7:45 pm CT: Entrance polls are always dicey, but everyone's seem to say the same things: Obama and Clinton, followed by Edwards. That means something. And on the GOP side the latest results have Rudy Giuliani in a DISTANT sixth place. We knew he was going to get creamed here, but the only thing keeping him from dead last is Duncan Hunter (inexplicably, still a candidate).

7:40 pm CT: More real (early) numbers: Edwards 34, Clinton 32, Obama 30. But... Obama folks are saying turnout they're expecting is 207,000. Holy schmoly. If that happens, Obama will win in a romp.

7:38 pm CT: This is looking like an Obama night. Optimism in that camp. And as we've documented, Huckabee optimism as well.... We'll see what holds.

7:30 pm CT: ABC Polling director Gary Langer offers this snapshot of analysis from entrance polls: "Religion is playing a heavy role in the Republican race, where evangelicals account for six in 10 voters and heavily favor Huckabee, by well over a 2-1 margin over Romney. Yet among the remaining, non-evangelical Republican voters, only about one in seven support Huckabee, and Romney leads easily.

"In the Democratic race, "change" is a huge factor - just over half say the most important attribute to them is the candidate who can bring change, and Obama wins them by 2-1. But Clinton comes back strongly on experience; Obama is notably weak both there and in empathy.

"There's a vast generation gap in the Democratic race, with younger voters very broadly for Obama while Clinton does best by far among seniors (who account for about a third of Democratic caucus-goers). Clinton also leads among women, Obama among men. Clinton leads among mainline Democrats, Obama among independents. And Clinton has an edge among voters from union households, nearly a quarter of all caucus goers."

7:28 pm CT: Actual Republican numbers -- raw: Huckabee 651, Romney 416, Thompson 297. Fred is praying (maybe not literally) to make third place hold.

7:22 pm CT: These are ACTUAL Democratic numbers, though from a VERY VERY SMALL NUMBER OF PRECINCTS REPORTING. Edwards 38, Clinton 33, Obama 27. This means zip, but there you go. This is still looking like an Obama night -- judging from the chaos at overrun caucus sites.

7:20 pm CT: So much for lowering expectations, Mike Huckabee. From Jake Tapper: "Ed Rollins, the campaign guru for former President Ronald Reagan now helping to steer the campaign of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, told ABC News Huckabee predicted a five-point victory in the Iowa caucuses, a number he told ABC News he got "from my gut." Guts don't vote, Ed.

7:15 pm CT: Make that 419 (!) people in West Des Moines at that high school, another strong indicator for Obama.

7:12 pm CT: Maybe THIS is why Huckabee's doing well -- does God fill out entrance poll quesionnaires? ABC's Jake Tapper reports: "If former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee doesn't do as well as he'd like in tonight's Iowa caucuses, it won't be because of lack of praying. A spontaneous prayer circle broke out in the ballroom at the Des Moines Embassy Suites where Huckabee supporters are congregating to watch the returns come in."

7:10 pm CT: Romney aides are pre-spinning a loss, ABC's John Berman reports. This sentiment from Romney camp: One of the biggest questions coming into this race is, where would the evangelical base go?  In the end, maybe they went to the former Baptist minister, which maybe should not be a surprise.  But the Romney aides say they were competitive there.

7:08 pm CT: We're hearing from an aide to an outside interest group who's at Valley High School in West Des Moines -- and they're reporting record turnout at the Democratic caucus. They expected 200 -- they're getting 250.

7:03 pm CT: Finally some information to report. These are just tidbits -- so sprinkle salt, but our entrance polls are suggesting a slight lead for Huckabee over Romney on the Republican side. Among the Democrats, in initial preferences, the race appears to be between Obama and Clinton, with Edward in third. Let the games begin.

6:48 pm CT: We're about 10 minutes out . . . and nobody knows anything. Just talked to one Democratic staffer who says they're hearing anecdotes about high turnout almost everywhere, big lines to get into buildings -- a dynamic that would benefit Obama under convention wisdom. But this has been a day marked by uncertainty. Truth is, nobody's confident.

6:39 pm CT: Nervous energy? Edwards spent some time tonight on the treadmill in his hotel gym.

5:59 pm CT: A quick word on what to expect tonight.... In terms of results, we'll hear from the Republicans first. They have an orderly process, much closer to real voting, and between returns and exit polling we could know right around 8 pm CT who won and who got, as Fred Thompson would say, "shellacked."

The Democrats -- that's another story. Their caucuses are chaotic, free-wheeling affairs. We may not know until 9, 10, 11 -- who knows. And then we can dissect for a few days before doing it all over again in New Hampshire... And we just learned that both Chelsea and Bill Clinton will be "observing" caucuses this evening -- different ones. Wonder if Chelsea will answer questions from caucus-goers. And imagine caucusing for Obama while President Clinton watches!

5:45 pm CT: For what it's worth -- probably not a lot -- this from ABC's Eloise Harper: "Teresa Vilmain (Clinton Iowa state director)  said a couple of days ago they would know by five o'clock who is showing and not showing.  This my own observation - mood is all business. No cheer or energy detected on the press bus from the staffer who is guiding us."

5:35 pm CT: The latest Huckabee spin is that top three would be OK. This is not the case. He needs to win Iowa, and even then he doesn't have a clear path to the nomination. A third place finish would ensure that the Huckaboom goes Huckabust. Second place would probably put him in a similarly poor place.

5:24 pm CT: Obama girl is back, just in time for Iowa. We missed her dearly.

5:21 pm CT: Here's a prediction for tonight: John McCain's going to be a major part of the story tonight if he comes and third, and maybe even if he comes in fourth. But he's not here tonight -- he's in New Hampshire, where he seems loose, per ABC's Ron Claiborne: "We've been to Pakistan. We've been to Waziristan," McCain said, referencing a trip he took with Sen. Joe Lieberman, I-Conn. "It's a God-awful place, by the way. There goes the Waziristan vote."

4:35 pm CT: Another thought on second choices: There's a school of thought (and a good one) that argues that Obama will be the big beneficiary of caucus-goers whose candidates don't achieve 15 percent. The thinking is this: All of the candidates want to be the anti-Hillary at some point. That argues for a war of attrition -- knock one candidate out here, another there, etc. Of the Big Three (who will be viable in just about every precinct in Iowa), Edwards has the most to lose with a poor Iowa showing. So if Dodd/Biden/Richardson folks are playing the strategy their candidates' advisers would want (no sure bet), they may want to go with Obama, the better to wound Edwards. Now, that DOES build up Obama (still the favorite to be the anti-Hillary), but it's making chicken salad out of you know what.

4:19 pm CT: One of things we'll be watching tonight is who -- if anyone -- drops out. The smart money is on Fred Thompson (if he finishes worse than third) and Chris Dodd among the Democrats (if he finishes sixth or worse). I just ran into a Biden adviser who said the campaign realistically needs a fourth place finish, and that if Edwards is third, he's so damaged that fourth is essentially third. It's spin, but not a terrible argument.

3:46 pm CT: The candidates are getting punchy out there on what's left of the trail. ABC's Raelyn Johnson reports that John Edwards launched an Iowa rally thusly: "I'm going to call on members of my traveling press to give my speech now." The press was too startled to shout out one-liners, but if the invitation stands, it could make the press plane to New Hampshire very interesting.

3:44 pm CT: Lots of operatives (and the occasional candidate) milling around the convention center, mostly because nobody has much better to do. To give a sense of the bizarre atmosphere, I just saw Sean Hannity come out of his radio area and ask Sen. Wayne Allard, R-Colo., if he was Mitt Romney's security guard. Senator Allard told him no, in fact he is Colorado's senior senator. They seemed to be chatting amiably at last check.

3:30 pm CT: Rick Klein here from ABC's The Note. I'll be blogging all night from the Polk County Convention Center in downtown Des Moines, where all the caucus results for both parties will roll in. If the mood strikes you, leave a comment below.

Before I start, just a shout-out to recognize Carrie Giddins and Mary Tiffany, the talented communications directors for the Democratic and Republican parties of Iowa. In an extraordinary display of bipartisanship, they came together to throw a great New Year's party the other night -- and more importantly, to set up a first-class operation here in Des Moines that makes this blog possible.

Now, a caveat for the evening. Nobody knows anything about what's going to happen. Anybody who says they think they know is either spinning or lying, or both. Lots of rumors about supposed deals, with tales of Richardson and Biden folks supposedly telling their supporters to go to Obama in precincts where they're not viable. Lots of denials, too, and even if the stories are true, the fact is the "deals" won't matter too much in the end. One of the best things about the caucuses is that everyone gets to make up his or her own mind.

January 3, 2008 in Vote 2008: Democrats, Vote 2008: Republicans | Permalink | User Comments (17)

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