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Next Step for the McSurge
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ShareJanuary 08, 2008 9:41 PM
ABC News' Ron Claiborne reports: To state the obvious -- The McCain win is huge. It reshapes the GOP race, at least for now. McCain now, arguably, becomes the front-runner.
The 71-year-old Arizona senator had closed the gap with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney over the last two weeks, and took the lead in most polls. Then his momentum -- "The Mac is Back" surge -- seemed to stall over the weekend.
All along, McCain knew he would need a big vote from independents to overcome a Romney edge with Republicans. His campaign's concern was that the Obama surge would siphon off so many of those "undeclared" voters, that McCain would fall short. He had vowed to battle on, but even a narrow loss would probably have left him fatally wounded. In the end, just like in 2000, the independent vote appears to have helped him defeat Romney.
McCain's next big test will be the Michigan primary, a week from today. Romney has led in the polls there for months. McCain is in second.
Romney has ties to the Wolverine State: he was born and grew up there. His father was a popular governor in the 1960s. But McCain has a very good shot to win Michigan, even though he is so short of money, he has very little in the way of a campaign organization there. What he does have going for him is momentum.
Winning New Hampshire keeps McCain surging. Also, like New Hampshire, McCain won the Michigan primary in 2000. He has been endorsed by Detroit's two daily newspapers, and he has been able to put one TV ad on the air since last week. If he can defeat Romney there, that could effectively spell the end for Romney, despite his determination, and having the almost limitless financial means to fight on.
After Michigan, comes an even more critical primary contest: South Carolina on Saturday, Jan. 19. McCain recently talked about his prospects in that state. He said immigration -- an issue on which he is vulnerable -- will be a much bigger deal in S.C. than it was in N.H.
As he handicapped it, on the plus side, he has the support of a number of statewide and local elected officials, including U.S. Sen. Lindsay Graham. In 2000, he ran there as an outsider. S.C. also has a huge number of military members and their families, plus an estimated 400,000 veterans -- what he considers his natural constituency.
McCain also notes that the population of S.C. has grown and changed in the past eight years, mostly on the Atlantic Coast. This population is considered less conservative than those in the central and western part of the state, so the thinking goes: they would be less receptive to Huckabee's religious-based evangelical conservatism.
The wild card in this primary is how well Fred Thompson will do. Will his supporters -- a large number of them -- abandon him, because they believe he has no realistic chance of winning the Republican nomination?
There is also a certain cosmic symmetry to McCain's next major contest being South Carolina. It was here that his 2000 candidacy ran off the rails, in part -- maybe a large part -- because of what, many say, was a clandestine smear campaign by the Bush forces and their sympathizers.
Now, the state that buried McCain could redeem him and provide a major boost toward securing the Republican nomination for president.
January 8, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (7)
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McCain is experience, but will age come back to bite him? Also new ideas?
I worked for McCain's presidency in 2000 as a volunteer at a phone bank McCain is a good man.
But this year I support Huckabee--and not--as many of you would quickly dismiss hiim as--
a "former Baptist preacher" or his supposed
"relgious based evangelical conservatism" (didn't know evagelical wasn't religious; trying real hard here to a connotative smear).
I'm tired of Huckabee being smeared and gang-pile tackled by the press paranoid of his religious background. Fact is we don't call Mitt Romney, a "former Mormon missionary.:" He's obviously done a lot since then. I'd say 10.5 years as governor of a state--more executive experience than any other candidate running--qualifies Huckabee as something more than a "former" too.
I'm voting for him because he's a man of principled balance, who weathers conflict with patience, is excellent on education and health care, and whose idea of a fair tax is far from loonie--it's an incredible idea that could reshape our American economy by providing a boon to new entrepreneurship. Abolish the IRS? Man on the moon? It can be done. Smartly.
Posted by: Kurt Stavenhagen | Jan 9, 2008 5:34:09 AM
Fair tax is not fair to those in the 15% tax bracket, when the "fair tax" would impose a 23% tax across the board.
Who gets hurt?
I also don't want a constitutional amendment that would state what a marriage is , I am ashamed of the state of Michigan for putting that in our state Constitution.
I also don't want creationism taught in the public schools.
I also don't want to be in Iraq for "100 years.
I want less government, more personal liberty.
I will be voting Ron Paul in the Michigan primary.
Posted by: judarama | Jan 9, 2008 9:08:43 AM
McCain's crowd of flunkies are apparently OK with him switching positions, allegiances and lifelong beliefs to get elected. McCain is tired sellout. Additionally, any candidate whose crowd turns three or four phrases into meathead chants (as we saw last night) just creeps me out.
Posted by: Jasper | Jan 9, 2008 3:13:09 PM
McCain is unpredictable and unstable.
Is he for the fundamentalists or is he against them?
Is he for secured borders or is he against them?
Is he for tax cuts or is he against them?
He said we'd be in Iraq for 100 years or more.
He says he'll keep us safe, but that we should live in fear.
He said he's against torture,
but for Guintanamo.
He talks about experience, but what has he actually accomplished
in the senate all these years?
He says one thing one time and something else later.
I do not know who McCain is or where he really stands.
The same can be said for Huckabee as has been said for McCain.
Is he for the fundamentalist only, or for America as a whole?
Bakker and Haggard said they were Christians too, that doesn't mean much.
Is he for Amnesty or against it?
I have no idea what he thinks of Iraq, he's never mentioned it.
Does he raise taxes? He's never denied it.
The only thing I've ever heard about his time as Governor
is that he raised taxes and freed murderers.
What good things did he do?
He's funny and likeable, but he's NEVER said anything meaningful
with a straight face.
Is he incapable of being serious?
Is everything a joke?
I do not know who he will truly represent.
I do not know who Huckabee is or where he stands on the issues.
These are serious concerns for me.
Posted by: Ron | Jan 9, 2008 5:45:45 PM
What McSurge?
More like McBush.
Check out the Delegate count.
Romney is far ahead in the
delegate count!
Those are real votes, not polls.
Romney is the Republican frontrunner!
Posted by: Nancy | Jan 9, 2008 5:50:39 PM
Senator McCain is the best qualified of the candidates to be President.He has demonstrated tremendous leadership in American foreign policy and in the effort to reduce wasteful government spending.He has been one of America's most powerful voices against torture.He is pro-life.John McCain has served our nation honorably in war and in peace.His vast experience has prepared him well to be President of the United States.
Posted by: Shawn M. Hussey | Jan 9, 2008 6:18:32 PM
Juan McCain lost my vote at the border. He took my votes for Hillary, Obama, Giuliani, Romney, Huckabee, Paul, Edwards, Richardson and a few others south of the border with him. I don’t want a president who has already surrendered to the Republic of Mexico or to the UN. I want a president who will fight for American sovereignty. I thought Paul would do that until he claimed we can’t deport illegal aliens since we can’t find them. Now it seems Thompson is the only one not caving in to Tyson, Pemex, Wal-Mart and the other big companies who make money with an open border.
Posted by: Royce | Jan 10, 2008 8:45:26 AM
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