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S.C. GOP Primary: Why McCain Won

January 19, 2008 9:33 PM

ABC News' Gary Langer Reports: A competitive showing among conservatives and mainline Republicans worked to Arizona Sen. John McCain's benefit in South Carolina, with his customary broad support from moderates and independents putting him over the top. His fellow veterans helped, as well.

But it was close: Big turnout among evangelicals and strong conservatives nearly tipped the day to former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.

Indeed McCain didn't do much better in core Republican groups this year than in 2000. The difference was that last time these groups coalesced around his only opponent, George W. Bush, while this year they divided among a greater choice of candidates - Huckabee, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former Sen. Fred Thompson.

McCain won 30 percent of party regulars voting in the state, similar to his 26 percent in 2000; and he won 26 percent of conservatives, compared with his 29 percent in 2000. That was good enough to open the door; McCain closed it by easily winning moderates, with 47 percent to Mike Huckabee's 18 percent; and independents, 39-22 percent.

If all the conservatives and mainline Republicans who didn't support McCain had lined up behind a single alternative, he'd have had trouble – as happened in 2000, when Bush won six in 10 voters in both those core GOP groups. Their fragmentation this time made the difference.

Nonetheless, Huckabee ran evenly with McCain among mainline Republicans, and beat him by 2-1 among "very conservative" voters, who accounted for a third of the turnout, up from a quarter in 2000. Huckabee was strong among evangelicals - a big majority of voters, 59 percent - winning them by 40-27 percent over Romney. That was a bit softer than Huckabee's 46-19 percent win among evangelicals in Iowa (where they also accounted for 6 in 10 voters), but better for Huckabee than in Michigan, where he lost this group to Romney, and New Hampshire, where he split them with Romney and McCain.

Indeed the non-evangelical vote in South Carolina was more emphatically against Huckabee than the evangelical vote was for him. He won just 12 percent of non-evangelicals, to McCain's 40 percent, Romney's 21 percent and Thompson's 15.

McCain also was assisted by veterans; a quarter of voters (their customary turnout) they supported him over Huckabee by 37-26 percent; he and Huckabee split non-veterans, 30-29 percent. And McCain won by a substantial margin among senior citizens, while Huckabee did better with those under 40.

Huckabee won easily on the No. 1. candidate attribute, someone who "shares my values," with 45 percent support from people who called it tops in their vote, to Thompson's 19 percent and McCain's 14 percent. McCain came back very strongly among voters more concerned with experience, and narrowly beat Huckabee among voters most concerned with the candidate who "says what he believes."

A narrow majority of voters, 52 percent, said they cared most about their candidate's position on the issues rather than his personal qualities; and this group went to Huckabee over McCain by an 8-point margin. McCain came back with a 17-point margin among those more concerned about personal qualities. That made the difference - but it underscores how close the race was. On issues themselves, just one sharply differentiated the field: McCain won very widely among the nearly two in 10 who called the war in Iraq the top issue in their vote, 49-22 percent over Huckabee.

January 19, 2008 in Giuliani, Rudy, Hunter, Duncan, Thompson, Fred | Permalink | User Comments (4)

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Posted by: judarama | Jan 20, 2008 12:26:27 PM

Posted by: ellis | Jan 20, 2008 12:28:43 PM

Posted by: reaganfan | Jan 20, 2008 12:46:17 PM

Posted by: xyz | Jan 20, 2008 1:46:26 PM

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