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Potomac Primary Live Blog by Rick Klein

February 12, 2008 6:44 PM

10:27 pm ET: No way around it: We have a Democratic frontrunner, and we have a Republican nominee. Productive night, if nothing else.

This is going to be interesting to watch from Clinton's perspective. Can she keep the superdelegates in the fold? The money people? Can she wait a full three weeks before having some good news to report? Now that Obama is the undisputed delegate leader, does the campaign try to recalibrate its goals and expectations?

And how does this underdog suit fit?

That's it for tonight -- thanks for reading. Check back tomorrow morning, as always, for a full analysis in The Note...

10:11 pm ET: It's easy to get the sense, in these back-to-back speeches, that we're seeing a preview of the general election. Not necessarily so, but it seems like that more than at any other point in this wacky six-week period of voting.

And McCain closes by saying he's fired up and ready to go! Stealing Obama's line!! A gutsy call!

10:04 pm ET: John McCain comes out with some red meat for the conservative base. Good, solid stuff for the GOP to hear from a guy the party's getting used to.

9:52 pm ET: Contrast this Obama speech with Clinton's from earlier tonight. Obama is running against John McCain, while Clinton is still running against Barack Obama.

9:48 pm ET: One question I'm getting a lot right now, via e-mail and the blog -- does pressure begin to mount on Clinton to step aside? Short answer is yes. Long answer is yes, but from whom? Who has standing to do it? Even Al Gore isn't pure on this question. The fact is that Hillary Clinton will be in the race as long as Hillary Clinton wants to be. And the Clintons are fighters.

9:44 pm ET: Obama's geographical references are almost lyrical when he gets them right. And this is him declaring victory in DC: "Though we won in Washington, Dc, this movement won't stop until there's change in Washington, DC."

Also -- Obama, when he brings it for these speeches, he's a great advertisement for his own campaign. "The cynics can no longer say that our hope is false."

9:44 pm ET: ABC CALLS WASHINGTON, DC FOR OBAMA AND MCCAIN. Sweep complete.

9:40 pm ET: We're being told no DC results until at least 10:30 -- with no explanation for the delay. But the Obama campaign is already declaring victory on its Website.

9:30 pm ET: Polls have closed in MARYLAND, and it's OBAMA FOR THE DEMOCRATS, MCCAIN FOR THE REPUBLICANS. Very real chance (almost certain, actually) that we'll have only one D winner and one R winner tonight -- which hasn't happened in any of the multiple-states-voting nights before. This is not a surprise, but it confirms a big night for the two winners. It's now 0-for-7 for Clinton, and DC will make it 0-8.

The margin will matter, as in Virginia. Three landslides would be worse than two landslides and a squeaker, or even two landslides and just a decisive victory.

9:24 pm ET: I'm baffled by the pace of DC returns -- but as a resident of the District who constantly struggles to have his trash collected on time, maybe I shouldn't be.

Angel -- you make a good point about the electoral votes of the states. But they have the same playing field -- Obama has concentrated on smaller states, while Clinton has looked at the larger ones. Virginia is among the bigger states though -- does that change your perceptions of how Obama can do in a more populous jurisdiction?

9:17 pm ET: This may be as close as we get to a Clinton tweak tonight: "It doesn't happen just by wishing for it, or hoping for it. It happens by working really, really hard."

9:14 pm ET: So far, as Clinton speaks in El Paso, Texas, no mention of tonight's voting. She's looking firmly and totally ahead. And think back just one week -- both she and Sen. Obama had reason to be happy with Super Tuesday. Things can change in a hurry, now can't they?

9:07 pm ET: A VERY STRONG statement from Jill Hazelbaker, the McCain campaign's communications director, offers a not-so-subtle nudge to Huckabee: "After tonight it is mathematically impossible for Governor Huckabee to secure the nomination. With regard to VA, Of course we’d like to win every race by wide margins, but we are accumulating the delegates we need to become the Republican nominee.  Going forward, we will continue to work to unite the Republican party to defeat a liberal Democrat in November."

9:01 pm ET: A 14-point margin for Obama among white men in Virginia. That's going to be tough for Clinton to spin away. He's becoming the candidate of broad coalitions. This has got to be scary for Camp Clinton to witness.

8:52 pm ET: I do expect tonight's results to have an impact on Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania -- it's not that voters there care what Virginia, DC, and Maryland are doing, but prepare for wall-to-wall coverage for the next three weeks (before March 4) that's going to be shaped by tonight's results.

The Clinton campaign is running out of weapons.

8:48 pm ET: ABC's Eloise Harper reports that Clinton deputy campaign manager Mike Henry has resigned. This is not a surprise -- he was a Patti Solis Doyle person -- but this isn't a good start to changing the conversation away from campaign turmoil and toward the challenge ahead. Maybe a clean sweep helps, but this isn't a pretty portrait.

8:46 pm ET: From ABC's Ron Claiborne, who is at McCain headquarters: "Can applause be nervous? When the big screen in the ballroom that is McCain election headquarters showed the projections that McCain would win the winner-take-all Virginia primary applause and whoops that sure sounded a bit nervous -- and relieved -- erupted. This race was much, much tighter than the McCain expected."

We're expecting to hear from McCain shortly after 9:30 pm ET.

8:37 pm ET: As we watch the Democratic results roll in in Virginia -- this is a Clinton wipeout. Obama winning all the big demographic groups, even Latinos, and is in the neighborhood of a 25-point win.

8:33 pm ET: ABC CALLS VIRGINIA FOR MCCAIN. That sound . . . was John McCain drawing breath again. This is a big win as he tries to close the deal -- it was Huckabee's best shot of the night, and if he's 0-3 tonight, there goes his extremely narrow window.

8:15 pm ET: The polls have closed in DC, and in case you were wondering, the reason you won't see an early call from ABC or other networks is  that there were no exit polls there. So we're going to have to wait for the actual vote tally before any projections are made. But anything less than a big Obama victory in DC would be shocker -- it's hard to imagine a jurisdiction, other than his home state of Illinois, that's more receptive to his message than the nation's capital, with its large number of white liberals and African-American voters.

7:59 pm ET: This from ABC's Ron Claiborne: " Half and hour after the polls in Virginia closed, half an hour before they close in Washington, D.C. (They were jiust extended to 9:30 pm in Maryland), the "crowd" at the McCain election day party is sparse and listless. not a all like this stage of the night in any contest since New Hampshire. Some of it has to be the awful, icy, rainy weather. Some of it may also be the deflation from losing Kansas and Louisiana last weekend and an unexpectedly tight race in Virginia. The "vibe" is not at all celebratory."

7:48 pm ET: Huckabee will have a choice to make in the not-too-distant future. Look, he's winning -- granted. But he really CAN'T win -- it's math, not politics. So at what point does he stop doing himself good for the future and start doing himself damage by making McCain's (and, by extension, the GOP's) life miserable. The fact is that the party and McCain are now wedding through at least November, and they'd love to get to the business of getting to learn to love each other.

7:41 pm ET: This just crossed the wire: "The head of elections in Maryland says a judge has extended voting statewide for 90 minutes -- until 9:30 p.m. -- because of traffic problems caused by bad weather."

Our night just got a bit longer. I'm hard-pressed to guess who it benefits -- but it does allow more people to vote.

7:26 pm ET: This is a problematic evening early for McCain. He can't put Huckabee away -- it's sort of astounding that Huck keeps winning. Again, this won't make Huckabee the nominee. But how is this guy still winning?

7:12 pm ET: So does a sweep matter? If Obama closes out the night 8-0, what's the next move for Clinton? I'm expecting the Clinton folks to start getting dirty -- we've seen hints of that already, with oh-so-casual references to Rezko and unanswered questions about Obama's background. But we haven't seen the Clintons cornered like they're going to be if this is a big Obama night.

7 pm ET: ABC CALLS VIRGINIA FOR OBAMA. Right at poll closing -- and with that goes Clinton's best chance at a win tonight. This race bears watching now just for the margin -- can Clinton even keep it close? Judging by how easy it was to call, this could be a blowout. It's hard to imagine it will be any closer in Maryland (and certainly not DC).

Early indications are that Obama carried white men, an important swing group that Obama has had trouble with. Not tonight, apparently. Add that to winning nine out of 10 African-Americans, and there's your ballgame.

The wave is building. Quickly and strongly.

6:55 pm ET: The Solis Doyle thing is bubbling up among Latinos. So far, it looks like the pot is being stirred by Obama folks, so it's hard to tell how much it's resonating. But it's out there.

6:19 pm ET: Kevin - you're right about Obama's advantages in Virginia. But it remains the biggest wild card of a not so wild day -- and remember the context here, if she loses big in three more states, she is 0 for her last 8. That's officially a slump.

5:55 pm ET: If anything is going to be interesting tonight -- watch Virginia. That's Sen. Clinton's best chance to keep it close, if not pull an upset, and Sen. McCain's weakest state. It's the first to have polls close -- about an hour from now -- and the results could dictate tonight's/tomorrow's coverage.

5:46 pm ET: And on the Republican side, from Mr. Langer -- "A third of voters in the Virginia Republican primary and three in 10 in Maryland describe themselves as 'very' conservative, up sharply in both states compared with 2000 – especially in Virginia, where 'very' conservatives have nearly doubled as a share of the electorate."

"Also in Virginia, nearly half are evangelicals, substantially higher than their share of the Republican voters in Maryland."

5:36 pm ET: EXIT POLLS -- Among Virginia and Maryland Democrats, we're seeing Democrats showing up for "change," as well as big liberal turnout in Virginia and big turnout among black voters in Maryland. This from ABC's Gary Langer:

"Preliminary exit poll results find that majorities of Democratic voters in Virginia and Maryland alike are saying the top attribute they’re seeking in a candidate is the one who can 'bring needed change.' The number of 'change' voters in these states is not the highest we've seen this year, but certainly at the high end."
 
"In Virginia, liberal voters are turning out in higher numbers than previously – they're accounting for just over half of voters in these preliminary data, up from 44 percent in the primary in 2004. About three in 10 are African-Americans, and, as in other Democratic primaries this year, well over half are women. A third of all Democratic voters are from northern Virginia, the more moderate-to-liberal region of the commonwealth."

"In Maryland, African-Americans account for just under four in 10 voters, similar to the level in 2004. Later data will tell us if it goes any higher – if so it could be the highest black turnout in the state in exit polls going back to 1980."

Very interesting for what it suggests about tonight's results...

5:26 pm ET: Apologies to any coffee drinkers I might have offended -- just trying to spark some discussion -- but don't think such backdrops happen by accident. I should also note that this particular Dunkin' Donuts is a really upscale one, with a deli and everything. It's probably nicer inside than the Starbucks, on balance.

In any event, I found it amusing to see a campaign event that I'm very familiar with, after spending so much time in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, etc...

5:20 pm ET: A word on the Republican Race that Will Not End... Is there a magic number for Mike Huckabee to be taken seriously as a candidate again? Surely if he wins enough contests he's not supposed to... BUT the math is the math. Huckabee has no path to the nomination -- John McCain is simply too far out in front in the delegate count. So he'll continue to be a vessel for conservative discontent, but little more than an annoyance for John McCain.

How bad is it for McCain? On balance -- he's been through a lot worse. Surely he'd rather be concentrating fully on the general election, without stories about how Huck is continuing to raise eyebrows. But maybe McCain is getting some more free media exposure by even being part of contests at all.

4:55 pm ET: Rick Klein here from ABC's The Note -- I'll be live-blogging tonight as the returns roll in from the "Potomac Primary" -- Maryland, Virginia, and the District of Columbia. Obviously, we're all expecting a big night for Barack Obama -- but maybe that sets the evil expectations game in motion just enough so that Hillary Clinton can do well if she just keeps in close in one of the three jurisdictions.

Also, since this is a home game for DC-based reporters like myself, I feel compelled to offer a tiny observation from the trail. This morning Obama and DC Mayor Adrian Fenty visited a Dunkin' Donuts on Capitol Hill. This is my neighborhood -- near Eastern Market -- and when that DD went in, it sparked quite a conversation, since it was directly across the street from a Starbucks. So you can define yourself by your coffee (and the connotations it brings); in my mind Dunkin' Donuts is for the working man who wants a cup of joe and a doughnut, the Starbucks if you wear a tie to work and want a double soy macchiato vanilla expresso (or whatever they call the fancy-pants drinks).

Which do you think Obama would rather frequent, if he weren't a candidate? And which image do you think he wanted conveyed to DC voters on the news today?

I should also note that the Starbucks is a Magic Johnson Starbucks -- reason enough for Obama to stay away (Magic has campaigned for Clinton).

February 12, 2008 in Tancredo, Tom, Thompson, Fred | Permalink | User Comments (107)

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