That a good news for Hillary - if she holds on till June as I hope.

remember Hillary votes are real and obamma votes are 60% enemy indepentants pretenting to be UNITED until november when they will be voting for PANAMA BABY

I believe Hillary will go all the way to Puerto Rico winning or not. The Clintons were never for the Party just for themselves. I like to watch the fight. It's in the news every day. It's not over until Hillary sings and I heard she can't sing.

The likelihood of going all the way to June is high. It is actually simple to analyze: if Obama does not sweep all 4 states on March 4th by a sizable margin, neither candidate can possibly win enough pledged delegates to get the nomination outright. If they split 50/50 on every remaining election (as an example), and all the pledged dels and SD's stay firmly planted as is, he would still need 338 SD's and there are not that many uncommitted available. So it would be a deadlock at the convention.

In addition, with all the money he has spent and the larger camp combined with his momentum, if he cant win all 4, then the party will have to decide because it will be clear that he is not the outright nominee and voters are split. The Clinton camp may have the upper hand legitimately if she can prove she is more electable (can win the electoral college) because a significant number of voters participating in the Dem primaries are not democrats (ie they are independents or reps who dont care about party unity and could cross over in Nov and vote for McCain).

It is clear that the states with caucuses do not clearly indicate how voters would vote in those states come Nov secret ballot elections. (In a caucus, everyone cannot participate, voters are subject to peer pressure, ie. spouses, friends, and family know who they caucus for, and the voting tally is based on time-sensitive pressured decisions instead of thoughtful secret ballot votes.) WA state is a good proof of that theory since it held a primary that had very different results than its caucus.

Another aspect is that there will likely be voters who no-show in Nov (even obamagirl didnt bother to vote in the primary) and with the division in the party it may turn out that disgusted voters dont vote at all or they write-in their choice. (Any candidate who runs for a party nomination and does not get it cannot declare themselves as a write-in, so voters who do that effectively throw away their vote since the write-in votes wont count.)

To make it even more complicated, none of the pledged delegates or SD's are bound by the electorate so they can cast their vote for whomever they think is best come convention day. While only minor vote switches have occurred in the past, this election is not like any of the past. Anything can happen!

Bottom line: it looks likely this will go all the way to the convention and be fought there not regardless of, but because of, the way the electorate is split. SD's actually have the power they do to compensate in the event of low voter turnout or caucuses that do not reflect the will of the voters by nature of their processes. So in that sense, SD's cast their vote based on their judgement for those who could not vote in the interest of the party. The more people vote, the less impact the SD's have.

The pivotal nature of March 4th will only confirm this likelihood and its contests along with the remaining contests will not likely change the popular vote split. What it will do is provide the SD's with the data they need - which candidate has the greatest electability based on the electoral picture.

Right now,, Clinton holds that slot but she needs a strong showing in TX (that wont be carried by the Dems most likely in Nov) and even stronger showings in OH and RI. Outright wins by Clinton are not needed but the more the better for the electoral picture. Smaller red states that are not swing states (vote red in Nov) that Obama has won Dem majorities, based on caucuses, are not a part of that electoral picture for a win against the Reps. TX will likely vote Red in Nov so the contest there is simply for delegates.

My suspicion is there will be a meeting of the minds behind closed doors after June 3 (mediated by Gore as senior statesman) and one of the candidates will fall on their sword to take the veep slot before the convention. This is the only chance for a surefire Dem win in Nov - a dream ticket.

I think Clinton still has a good shot and the videos I am seeing of her rally turnouts have high enthusiasm from larger crowds than before. We may be seeing a shift in momentum happening!

In any case, whoever you support, dont let the MSM or the political nature of the camps influence you. This is not over and wont be until after the convention. History is being made - do your part!

oh and Obamites, please dont drink the koolaid! LOL

Great post, DCVoter. I appreciate your insight, and enjoy reading your posts.