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Clinton Wins, Obama's Still Ahead; What's Next?

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March 05, 2008 9:44 AM

ABC News' David Chalian Reports: This is where math and momentum meet. 

On the heels of three victories in Ohio, Texas, and Rhode Island, Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., turned back a surging Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., who came into Tuesday with 11 straight victories and picked up another win in Vermont.

So, what's next?

1. If Clinton and Obama basically tie in the remaining 12 contests, Obama would need 164 superdelegates to come his way to put him over the magic number of 2,024

2.  Assuming no currently committed superdelegates switched and no uncommitted superdelegates jumped off the fence. . .

Clinton would need to win 59% of the delegates in the remaining 12 contests in order to overtake Sen. Obama's delegate lede.

If the upcoming 611 delegates at stake split 59/41 for Clinton -- 360 would go to Clinton and 251 would go to Obama -- netting Sen. Clinton 109 delegates. . . which would be enough to overcome Obama's current 106 delegate lead.

3.  There are 611 delegates up for grabs in the remaining 12 contests.

ABC News' current delegate estimate has Obama at 1,556.

That means he would need to win 77% of all the remaining pledged delegates to hit the magic number of 2,024 to secure the nomination. That is highly unlikely due to the proportional delegate allocation rules in the Democratic Party.

Clinton would need to win 94% of all the remaining pledged delegates to hit the magic number of 2,024.  (ABC News currently has her at 1449.)

So, clearly they both are going to be relying on superdelegates to secure the nomination. 

Stay tuned...

For all the latest from the campaign trail, read The Note every morning exclusively on ABCNews.com

March 5, 2008 in Bush, George W., Kucinich, Dennis, Tancredo, Tom | Permalink | User Comments (231)

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Well Dems, you failed to put the stake through Count HillBillary's heart. As a result, the Clintoons are in it to the bitter end and you will have a brokered convention. Can you say 1968? 1972? 1980? Can you say President McCain?

LMAO!!! Somebody, please pass the popcorn, this is going to get really entertaining.

Posted by: Karl Rove | Mar 5, 2008 9:59:14 AM

Down to a backroom deal. This is vintage Clinton. Expect the worst, because that's all these people know.

Posted by: fezziwig9 | Mar 5, 2008 10:03:18 AM

The magic number is 2025, not 2024.

Posted by: Big Mac | Mar 5, 2008 10:03:19 AM

Down to a backroom deal. This is vintage Clinton. Expect the worst, because that's all these people know.

Posted by: fezziwig9 | Mar 5, 2008 10:03:24 AM

Michigan and Florida primaries will provide the necessary delegates for Senator Clinton to secure the nomination.

From this morning:

CNN POLL QUESTION

Should Florida and Michigan Democrats

*Have their votes counted?...58%

*Not be counted?...25%

*Have new primaries or caucuses?...17%

To avoid a brokered convention, which will go to Clinton, Obama needs to withdraw and give his support to Tony Rezko.

Posted by: ken | Mar 5, 2008 10:04:23 AM

Thanks to Hillary, it's President McCain--and four more years of the Bush White House.

Posted by: Robert | Mar 5, 2008 10:07:17 AM

Gee, Jake, we knew that neither was likely to allow the party to avoid superdelegate involvement weeks ago. Recycling news is not news.

If the party is smart, it will mitigate this fracture sooner if they want to keep McCain at bay. The longer it drags on, the more it feeds the hungry (and often biased) media machine and loses the party real supporters who have no taste for the stinking side of politics.

Posted by: SE Croft | Mar 5, 2008 10:11:43 AM

I was just looking at the numbers like she took a BIG lead, NO!!!!! the most was 10 to his 22 in Vermont.She is saying join forces with her at the top.NO WAY I for one would vote REP...People they will do anything to get this White House again...You triple numbers white males you,play right into hers hands she loves you.Us so to say middle people HUH>>>> don't give a crap about us or the people that voted for her in Texas wait until she sends your families back to Mexico,you are stupid and will believe anything this jerk.

Posted by: honest | Mar 5, 2008 10:12:23 AM

What's next?

Consider this:

In a move not anticipated by the press or Obama supporters, the senator from Illinois names Chicago business associate Tony Rezko as his running mate.

The Obama campaign dismissed the federal indictments against the Vice Presidential hopeful as "back room politics" of the Clinton campaign.

Obama supporters initially offered support for Rezko, but the campaign has not yet determined how to incorporate "Rezko" into the Obama mantra.

Posted by: ken | Mar 5, 2008 10:15:03 AM

Voted for Hillary yesterday as a registered long time Rep. Held nose but did it for the Dem. Party to have fun with. YeeHaaa go Hillary and Win all you can! Hope to see ya cry in NOv

Posted by: Logger in OH | Mar 5, 2008 10:15:33 AM

I am not sure where the author of this article got his/her numbers but, the delegate count programs of two different websites provide a different result. Yes the superdelegates are in play... but no they do not have the impact called for in this article.

Regarding MI and FL, remember the magic number changes if they come back into play. I think it would be something like 2208.

Brokered convention? Back room deals? I think this myth has already been rejected as the DNC has clarified the rules will not change for the SD's, the SD seniors have clarified they are confident there will be a clear nominee, and MI and FL have recourse to get the delegates seated within the rules.

You have underestimated the intelligence of the voters one time too many. Keep trying RNC... We will dispel your myths again and again online and offline. Experienced voters will continue to educate the inexperienced voters. The democratic electorate has become wise to your tactics and the party will unify after the spirited competition is over.

Posted by: DCVoter | Mar 5, 2008 10:18:43 AM

The New Messiah's ivory tower is leaning a little bit after yesterday, and we're starting to see some cracks in it. The race and gender cards are worn out from too much use, and for a while it appeared the "charisma card" would trump all others. But maybe it's weakening, too! At SOME point, Hillary and Barack will realize that if they team-up, the combination would be unbeatable, especially by Old Man McCain, who doesn't even have support of all Republicans.

Posted by: rmberryman | Mar 5, 2008 10:21:37 AM

Super delegates should not have jump ship after the Obama's win and pressure from his camp saying their state voted for Obama, now we have Hillary winning and registered Democrats voting and giving her their support.

This race is to select the Democrat nominee not the Republican or Independent nominee, so which super delegate is now going to tell all these registered democrats supporting Hillary nope your support does not count they are now going to vote their conscience.

If Hillary ends up leading in the popular vote among registered democrats is it not the same argument that the Hillary camp can make, the supers did now want to go against their states but they are now willing to go against the popular voted amongst Democrats?

That was the Obama's camp argument so what is the new argument now??

Posted by: SJ | Mar 5, 2008 10:25:31 AM

Put Hillary any place near or on the ticket and WE can surely snuff that foul odor away from the 1600. Obama/Hillary or Hillary/Obama either way the stench is too ofensive. Should've stuck with the white guy with good hair, just a suggestion. Lookin forward to a good crying

Posted by: Logger in OH | Mar 5, 2008 10:27:05 AM

Will Betty please stop reposting the same idea.

It's clear that Clinton has lost on delegate math, but what's clearer is Obama has also lost. Ohio and Texas have said no. And we all know you need Florida and Ohio to win this thing in November. I think you also need Texas if I'm not mistaken.

It will be McCain in '08, and a more common sense Republican who is perceived as working with the Dems is much better for the country. I think Obama will be like Bush but from the other side of the aisle. The country needs less of that. And, Clinton is just another rehash of Bill's 8 years. I don't think we need that either.

McCain is really the best person for the job. He has experience, and being a pilot he's probably the only who can assuredly say he can think on his feet when the pressure is on, especially at 3am.

Aaron, OH

Posted by: Aaron | Mar 5, 2008 10:28:32 AM

Now that we know the disgust Obama and his wife have for this country, we need to make sure he never occupies the Oval office.

Posted by: Mary | Mar 5, 2008 10:29:52 AM

I agree with the idea that Clinton and Obama would make a huge difference if they united, I just wonder if it is too late now that she chose to smear him over the last few weeks. They definetly need to do something- the Republicans are just sitting back mocking the DNC right now because we are running in circles. Let's hope that all of us can come together for the common good of the country. The Clinton/Obama ticket seems like it would appeal to every race and gender - Although a merging of the two great minds would not make the media very happy and they seem to have been conducting this from the very beginning.

Posted by: dreamer? | Mar 5, 2008 10:33:48 AM

Will all the crazies who dumped Clinton for Obama, now dump Obama for Clinton? Reality is so much better than anything Hollywood could write.

Posted by: MCCEE | Mar 5, 2008 10:33:51 AM

Additionally, the percentages quoted in this article are misleading. Many of the remaining states have small electorates and some have significant delegates apportioned. Percentages cannot be accurately applied to the remaining popular vote and remaining delegates. It has to be done state by state to be valid.

Remember, the press often relies on press releases by the campaigns and by the parties. The RNC is working hard to keep the Dems fighting since that is the only way they can possibly win in Nov - divide and conquer and hope the disgruntled voters vote for McCain.

Posted by: DCVoter | Mar 5, 2008 10:34:13 AM

2009 me thinks Annie was from the Longhorn state and indeed was the funniest thing outta Tx in a long time. Luvin that Maxine too though, such fun those Dems characters...really like the Rangle too

Posted by: Logger in OH | Mar 5, 2008 10:35:46 AM

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