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Live-Blogging During Election-Night Returns by Rick Klein

March 04, 2008 10:11 PM

12:07 am ET: That's it for tonight -- check back, as always, at The Note for a full wrap tomorrow....

11:46 pm ET: Obama runs against both candidates: "John McCain and Hillary Clinton have echoed each other, dismissing this call for change as eloquent yet empty."

11:41 pm ET: Win or lose, speech is the same -- Obama's audience is now those in the next round -- Pennsylvania, we suppose. But the question becomes -- do the words grow stale with time? We have seven weeks to find out...

11:39 pm ET: Sen. Obama hasn't had to give a speech like this in a while -- starts with congratulating Clinton, not declaring victory -- and that's the right tone. "No matter what happens tonight, we have nearly the same delegate lead as we did this morning," Obama says -- that's his argument moving forward, and he's right.

11:20 pm ET: "Yes we will!" -- now there's your response to "yes we can." Crowd got it. Game. On.

11:20 pm ET: I can't even remember the last time Sen. Clinton gave an election-night speech that even referenced that night's elections. Was it Super Tuesday? And pay attention to this argument -- she's winning the states that matter, she's arguing.

And "no time for speeches and on-the-job-training" when that phone rings at 3 am.

Just remember -- an inspired Clinton is a tough thing to defeat. She can even be gracious tonight to Sen. Obama.

Clinton people are e-mailing me the same word: Re-start.

11:17 pm ET: Knock to rain on a parade that has every right to march, do recall that just a few weeks ago Bill Clinton was saying she needed to win OH and TX. She's only halfway home -- but all smiles this evening. "This nation's coming back, and so is this campaign," Sen. Clinton says. "We're going on, we're going strong, and we're going all the way."

11:15 pm ET: What will be interesting now is the bounce -- things were turning, in tone and attitude, away from Obama's favor in recent days, and that will only intensify now. This is a critical few days for Sen. Obama -- how he copes with a setback that is every bit as serious as his loss in New Hampshire.

11:05 pm ET: ABC's Eloise Harper summarizes the points being made by jubilant Clinton staffers:

"No matter how you look at it, this race is incredibly close, and given that the obama campaign expected to end the primary tonight and outspent us 2 to 1 in their effort to do so, this is a major setback for them.
"After 37 primaries and caucuses with record turnouts in which over 22 million people have voted, the difference in the popular vote count is razor thin.
"And with almost 3000 delegates awarded Senators Clinton and Obama are separated by less than 4% of the number of delegates.
"The fact that two-thirds of all voters who made up their minds in the final days leading up to March 4th voted for Hillary Clinton is a clear sign that we have momentum.
"Regardless of what happens tonight, this much is clear: voters don’t want a coronation and they want a candidate who is ready to manage the economy and be commander in chief on day one.
"The obama campaign should stop trying to end this race in the middle."

What do you think? None of this solves her math problem, but it does seem like it's an excuse to move on to Pennsylvania at the very least.

10:49 pm ET: HUGE CALL -- CLINTON TAKES OHIO. She breathes, yet. Now the argument is on -- Democrats, we'll hear, are having second thoughts...

10:48 pm ET: As we see Clinton build up a vote lead in Ohio, I think we can confidently predict that the Democratic race is not ending this evening. Anyone disagree?

10:40 pm ET: ABC's Eloise Harper reports that Sen. Clinton has also placed a congratulatory phone call to Sen. McCain.

10:37 pm ET: Clinton campaign complaints about the TX caucuses continue. This memo just out from the campaign: "The campaign legal hotline has been flooded with calls containing specific accusations of irregularities and voter intimidation against the Obama campaign.  This activity is undemocratic, probably illegal, and reflects a wanton disregard for the caucus process."

10:20 pm ET: Ron Paul survives in the primary in his congressional district. Still waiting on Dennis Kucinich among that other presidential/congressional candidate.

10:08 pm ET: From ABC's David Wright: "By contrast things are very quiet here in San Obamaland. People just trickling in, presumably from the caucuses. They are patiently watching CNN, and not making much noise. No sign at all of the campaign heavies. As in NH, they have disappeared and appear to be off biting their nails somewhere, sending out hopeful emails when nudged. Obama is still at his hotel and won't be here for at least an hour."

10:01 pm ET: Classic that McCain claims "hope" mantle. Still have a sense that he thinks he knows who his opponent will be.

9:59 pm ET: Signs (literally) that Clinton will fight on -- from ABC's Kate Snow: "In the sea of signs here in the Clinton ballroom in Columbus, Ohio there's a hand-written sign that stands out-- "Meet me in Indiana!"

"Indiana's democratic primary will be held on May sixth.

"The crowd here went wild when CNN, being shown on a giant screen, projected Rhode Island for Clinton.  It is her first victory after a string of twelve losses.

"Down at the end of the room, behind the empty podium that awaits Senator Clinton's appearance later, there's a group of rowdy supporters who from time to time launch into a call-back cheer-- the kind boot camp instructors yell out.

" "H-I-L-L-A-R-Y!" yells one side of the room, echoed by the other... "H-I-L-L-A-R-Y!" "She's much better than the guys!" "C-L-I-N-T-O-N!" "We won't stop until she wins!" "Hillary!" "Our nominee!" "HRC!" "To victory!" "

9:58 pm ET: From ABC's Ron Claiborne: "McCain in victory speech tackling Iraq issue head-on ... defending going to war but saying debate should not be over the past but what to do now ... Laying the groundwork for what will be his argument that the surge is working and the war can and must be won to quash Al Qaeda in Iraq. McCain knows war is unpopular -- and he's potentially vulernable for his support of it -- so he wants to make the issue about whether the US finishes the job, win with honor, then withdraw most troops."

9:54 pm ET: "Now we begin the most important part of our campaign," McCain says. And he starts with a vigorous defense of his position on Iraq. Ready for a national-security campaign, anyone?

9:49 pm ET: ABC's Sunlen Miller reports that Obama called McCain from his hotel (the Marriott in San Antonio) at 8:30 Central, congratulated him and said he's looking forward to running against him in the fall campaign.

9:24 pm ET: ABC's Gary Langer has some interesting data points, none of which are encouraging for Obama: "Latinos turned out in big numbers in the Texas Democratic primary, accounting for a record 30 percent of voters, up from 24 percent in 2004 – second only this cycle to New Mexico, and matching California. They went nearly 2-1 for Clinton, 63-35 percent, a crucial element for her."

"An additional 19 percent were African-Americans – roughly matching their 2004 turnout, but well down from their 34 percent share in Texas in 1984, when Jesse Jackson ran. Obama won 85 percent of blacks in Texas. Clinton won white women by 19 points; white men, a swing group in many Democratic primaries this year, split evenly between the two."

"As in Ohio, the gap between “change” and “experience” as top attributes was narrower than in most primaries, a 17-point margin for “change,” 44-27 percent, the fewest to pick change as the top attribute in any primary save Arkansas. Obama won “change” voters by 72-27 percent, while those more concerned with experience went for Clinton almost unanimously, 91-8 percent."

9:21 pm ET: ABC projects that CLINTON HAS WON THE RHODE ISLAND PRIMARY. Off the schnide, and it's a 1-1 tie today. They can start breathing again at Clinton HQ. But Texas and Ohio loom.

9:20 pm ET: Huckabee concedes: "It looks pretty apparent tonight that he will in face achieve 1191 delegates."

9:18 pm ET: ABC's John Berman reports that GOP sources confirm John McCain will visit the White House tomorrow. ABC's Jennifer Duck says this will be an endorsement event. The pieces are falling into place.

And what's with this long Huckabee baseball imagery?

9:13 pm ET: AP reports that McCain has passed the magic number of 1,191 delegates, for what it's worth. (ABC's count is a bit different because we haven't contacted as many former Romney delegates as the AP.) It's as official as it's going to get before the convention: John McCain will be the Republican nominee for president. And we're really no closer at this hour to knowing who he'll face, which must bring a smile to his face.

9:10 pm ET: These are edgy, tense moments at the Clinton campaign -- the hour or two that determines a political legacy. It still seems at this moment like the campaign will continue -- one victory being the new (low) bar. But it will be anxious at Camp Clinton until or unless she breaks the 12-loss streak.

9 pm ET: Polls close in two more states, and ABC News projects that MCCAIN WILL WIN THE RHODE ISLAND AND TEXAS PRIMARIES. So that makes it a clean sweep on McCain's clinching night -- know Huck-a-distractions on the horizon.

And now Ohio can start rolling in, with polls there closed (albeit late).

8:50 pm ET: ABC's Kevin Chupka reports that the end of Huckabee's road is very, very near: "According to a senior Huckabee staffer the plan is for Huckabee to return to Little Rock late tonight and speak with Senator John McCain tomorrow during the day to discuss his concession plans. He knows it's over but wants to concede in such a way as to be in line with his party's candidate."

8:44 pm ET: Clinton campaign is organizing a conference call at this hour to try to stir the pot on the Texas caucus system. Not the first time we've heard them make noise about possible irregularities -- legit or not (and there seems to be something there) this is pre-spin, in case she loses badly there.

8:25 pm ET: ABC's Kevin Chupka catches up with Huckabee adviser Ed Rollins: When I asked him about tonight's speech and what to expect going forward he said "congrats to mccain and figure out next steps tomorrow." So tomorrow it is...

8:19 pm ET: ABC's Kate Snow reports that Bill Clinton did 50 (5-oh) local media interviews today. That's a lot, even by his machine-like standards. Think he wants this?

8:17 pm ET: A few interesting things out of Ohio, as we wait for results -- which will have to wait until at least 9 pm, because at least one county has extended voting. Union turnout was down a bit from expectations. Clinton seems to have regained the edge she's had in the past among female voters -- that's huge for her, for obvious reasons. And the economy was the biggest issue in Ohio, as expected. I think it's fair to say that Sen. Clinton would like a few more Ohios in the union.

8:14 pm ET: ABc's Jay shaylor weighs in with some color from an independent candidate: "Long-shot presidential candidate Ralph Nader and an aide came into the Amtrak Acela lounge at NYC's Penn Station about 15 minutes ago, waiting to board an 8:15pm train to DC.

"The aide suggested they sit in an area where CNN is on and carrying primary voting analysis and results.

"Nader shook his head and indicated he wasn't at all interested. He opted for a seat in the one corner of the room without a view of the TV."

7:57 pm ET: Sort of a lull in the action now as we wait for the poll closings in the last two states -- and for vote counts in Ohio. It just feels (and it's just a feeling) at this point that this evening isn't going to wrap anything up. Keep in mind that the Clinton campaign will jump on any shred of good news to stay in the mix...

7:36 pm ET: From ABC's Ron Claiborne: "It's 6:25 pm Central time and John McCain is the projected winner of primaries in Vermont and Ohio, the balloons in the huge ballroom of the Fairmont Hotel in Dallas are suspended from the ceiling in nets, primed for their triumphant descent when/if McCain claims the Republican nomination tonight ... and, discounting media members, there's barely a half-dozen people here. Could McCain's long road back from near oblivion last summer to sewing up the GOP nomination actually turn out to be somewhat anti-climatic?"

7:30 pm ET: ABC CALLS OHIO FOR MCCAIN. Another nail is hammered in Huckabee's coffin -- the real quesiton is will he get out tomorrow or Thursday? And no call yet on the Democratic side -- here's guessing there won't be a call for a while yet in this always-interesting state.

7:03 pm ET: Vermont, of course, is among the most liberal states. But this could matter for the delegate edge -- an early close means Obama could run up the margin there, and build on his delegate lead.

7 pm ET: Right at poll closing -- ABC is calling VERMONT FOR BARACK OBAMA. Not a suprise -- but that makes it an even dozen, 12 in a row for Obama. It also eliminates a piece of Clinton's slim margin for error. It gives Obama some positive news coverage early this evening -- but Ohio and Texas, of course, will dominate all.

Also, McCain adds to his margin with the Vermont victory. Whatever happens on the Democratic side, this could be Huckabee's last gasp this evening.

6:57 pm ET: We have PRELIMINARY exit polls - updated through 5 pm ET, but as a policy, we don't discuss them in terms of winners and losers until after state poll closing times have passed. We don't have access to them, incidentally, until after 5 pm, to reduce the opportunities for slips.

6:19 pm ET: Kevin -- the cancellation factor among races -- Latinos and black voters essentially washing each out out, is something I've heard from a number of smart Texas hands. That leaves it with white Democrats in Texas, a rapidly changing and unpredictable bunch.

6:06 pm ET: LESD -- you make a valid point -- of course she can stay in as long as she wants, just like Ron Paul. But in a sense, after today, for the next seven weeks at least the only voters that matter are the superdelegates -- themselves a politically savvy bunch. Those who are still undecided are particularly cautious -- they want to be with a winner. If there's no clear victor tonight, might most of them remain on the sideliens?

5:56 pm ET: A fascinating early read on exit polls, from ABC's Gary Langer: "The theme of change continues to resonate in Ohio and Texas, but not by as wide a margin as in most previous primaries. The ability to 'bring needed change' beats 'experience' as the most important quality in a candidate by about a 20-point margin in Ohio and by about 15 points in Texas, according to preliminary exit poll results. . . . Across all previous primaries this year, by contrast, 'change' has beaten 'experience' by 31 points."

Hmmm -- who's sweating those numbers?

5:37 pm ET: A key point in interpreting tonight -- is there room in this race for another Clinton comeback? At this point, it wouldn't shock anyone to have another unexpeted turn -- but this would be a new role for her. How does it fit?

4:53 pm ET: Regarding Ty's comment -- 100 percent of the delegates would do it -- but that's not plausible. Generally, if Obama gets just 15 percent in jurisdictions, he'd get at least one delegate. Clinton would have to win contests almost literally 70-30 to make up the gap in pledged delegates.

And yes, Florida and Michigan provide intriguing possibilities -- but I don't see that getting settled short of an agreement to re-vote.

--------------

Rick Klein from ABC's The Note here -- I'll be live-blogging this evening as the returns roll in from Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island, and Vermont.

A quick thought before we get any numbers in -- I'm amazed at how successfully the Clinton campaign has calibrated expectations. Just a few weeks ago, no less an authority than Bill Clinton was saying that Ohio and Texas were both must-wins for his wife. Now, the Clinton campaign has laid the groundwork to stay in the race even if she loses one of the two states she's pinned all her hopes on. Her play is for momentum, not even delegates, and that's an argument that can get traction -- even if it can't last forever.

Essentially, if she pulls off even one win (Texas or Ohio), expect the Clinton campaign to argue that, a) Democrats are having serious second thoughts; b) too many questions remain about Barack Obama, questions that will only grow more urgent with time; c) Obama couldn't compete against John McCain because he can't put away Clinton; and d) therefore, remaining states (and lots and lots of superdelegates) should go with Clinton to save the party in 2008.

Hillary Clinton still has a very serious math problem: Almost regardless of what happens today and in the dwindling number of remaining states, she will be behind Obama in delegates when the process ends. But that's not the end of the race, not necessarily. And the fact that we're even considering this thing wide open, after Obama's run of 11 straight victories, is fairly incredible.

Should be an interesting night. Thoughts? What does Hillary Clinton have to do to stay in the mix? Will it matter if she's still behind substantially in terms of delegates? And who -- if anyone -- would ever be able to prevail on her to get out of Obama's way, should it come to that?

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