Political Radar: Live-Blogging During Election-Night Returns by Rick Klein

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Live-Blogging During Election-Night Returns by Rick Klein

March 04, 2008 10:11 PM

12:07 am ET: That's it for tonight -- check back, as always, at The Note for a full wrap tomorrow....

11:46 pm ET: Obama runs against both candidates: "John McCain and Hillary Clinton have echoed each other, dismissing this call for change as eloquent yet empty."

11:41 pm ET: Win or lose, speech is the same -- Obama's audience is now those in the next round -- Pennsylvania, we suppose. But the question becomes -- do the words grow stale with time? We have seven weeks to find out...

11:39 pm ET: Sen. Obama hasn't had to give a speech like this in a while -- starts with congratulating Clinton, not declaring victory -- and that's the right tone. "No matter what happens tonight, we have nearly the same delegate lead as we did this morning," Obama says -- that's his argument moving forward, and he's right.

11:20 pm ET: "Yes we will!" -- now there's your response to "yes we can." Crowd got it. Game. On.

11:20 pm ET: I can't even remember the last time Sen. Clinton gave an election-night speech that even referenced that night's elections. Was it Super Tuesday? And pay attention to this argument -- she's winning the states that matter, she's arguing.

And "no time for speeches and on-the-job-training" when that phone rings at 3 am.

Just remember -- an inspired Clinton is a tough thing to defeat. She can even be gracious tonight to Sen. Obama.

Clinton people are e-mailing me the same word: Re-start.

11:17 pm ET: Knock to rain on a parade that has every right to march, do recall that just a few weeks ago Bill Clinton was saying she needed to win OH and TX. She's only halfway home -- but all smiles this evening. "This nation's coming back, and so is this campaign," Sen. Clinton says. "We're going on, we're going strong, and we're going all the way."

11:15 pm ET: What will be interesting now is the bounce -- things were turning, in tone and attitude, away from Obama's favor in recent days, and that will only intensify now. This is a critical few days for Sen. Obama -- how he copes with a setback that is every bit as serious as his loss in New Hampshire.

11:05 pm ET: ABC's Eloise Harper summarizes the points being made by jubilant Clinton staffers:

"No matter how you look at it, this race is incredibly close, and given that the obama campaign expected to end the primary tonight and outspent us 2 to 1 in their effort to do so, this is a major setback for them.
"After 37 primaries and caucuses with record turnouts in which over 22 million people have voted, the difference in the popular vote count is razor thin.
"And with almost 3000 delegates awarded Senators Clinton and Obama are separated by less than 4% of the number of delegates.
"The fact that two-thirds of all voters who made up their minds in the final days leading up to March 4th voted for Hillary Clinton is a clear sign that we have momentum.
"Regardless of what happens tonight, this much is clear: voters don’t want a coronation and they want a candidate who is ready to manage the economy and be commander in chief on day one.
"The obama campaign should stop trying to end this race in the middle."

What do you think? None of this solves her math problem, but it does seem like it's an excuse to move on to Pennsylvania at the very least.

10:49 pm ET: HUGE CALL -- CLINTON TAKES OHIO. She breathes, yet. Now the argument is on -- Democrats, we'll hear, are having second thoughts...

10:48 pm ET: As we see Clinton build up a vote lead in Ohio, I think we can confidently predict that the Democratic race is not ending this evening. Anyone disagree?

10:40 pm ET: ABC's Eloise Harper reports that Sen. Clinton has also placed a congratulatory phone call to Sen. McCain.

10:37 pm ET: Clinton campaign complaints about the TX caucuses continue. This memo just out from the campaign: "The campaign legal hotline has been flooded with calls containing specific accusations of irregularities and voter intimidation against the Obama campaign. This activity is undemocratic, probably illegal, and reflects a wanton disregard for the caucus process."

10:20 pm ET: Ron Paul survives in the primary in his congressional district. Still waiting on Dennis Kucinich among that other presidential/congressional candidate.

10:08 pm ET: From ABC's David Wright: "By contrast things are very quiet here in San Obamaland. People just trickling in, presumably from the caucuses. They are patiently watching CNN, and not making much noise. No sign at all of the campaign heavies. As in NH, they have disappeared and appear to be off biting their nails somewhere, sending out hopeful emails when nudged. Obama is still at his hotel and won't be here for at least an hour."

10:01 pm ET: Classic that McCain claims "hope" mantle. Still have a sense that he thinks he knows who his opponent will be.

9:59 pm ET: Signs (literally) that Clinton will fight on -- from ABC's Kate Snow: "In the sea of signs here in the Clinton ballroom in Columbus, Ohio there's a hand-written sign that stands out-- "Meet me in Indiana!"

"Indiana's democratic primary will be held on May sixth.

"The crowd here went wild when CNN, being shown on a giant screen, projected Rhode Island for Clinton. It is her first victory after a string of twelve losses.

"Down at the end of the room, behind the empty podium that awaits Senator Clinton's appearance later, there's a group of rowdy supporters who from time to time launch into a call-back cheer-- the kind boot camp instructors yell out.

" "H-I-L-L-A-R-Y!" yells one side of the room, echoed by the other... "H-I-L-L-A-R-Y!" "She's much better than the guys!" "C-L-I-N-T-O-N!" "We won't stop until she wins!" "Hillary!" "Our nominee!" "HRC!" "To victory!" "

9:58 pm ET: From ABC's Ron Claiborne: "McCain in victory speech tackling Iraq issue head-on ... defending going to war but saying debate should not be over the past but what to do now ... Laying the groundwork for what will be his argument that the surge is working and the war can and must be won to quash Al Qaeda in Iraq. McCain knows war is unpopular -- and he's potentially vulernable for his support of it -- so he wants to make the issue about whether the US finishes the job, win with honor, then withdraw most troops."

9:54 pm ET: "Now we begin the most important part of our campaign," McCain says. And he starts with a vigorous defense of his position on Iraq. Ready for a national-security campaign, anyone?

9:49 pm ET: ABC's Sunlen Miller reports that Obama called McCain from his hotel (the Marriott in San Antonio) at 8:30 Central, congratulated him and said he's looking forward to running against him in the fall campaign.

9:24 pm ET: ABC's Gary Langer has some interesting data points, none of which are encouraging for Obama: "Latinos turned out in big numbers in the Texas Democratic primary, accounting for a record 30 percent of voters, up from 24 percent in 2004 â second only this cycle to New Mexico, and matching California. They went nearly 2-1 for Clinton, 63-35 percent, a crucial element for her."

"An additional 19 percent were African-Americans â roughly matching their 2004 turnout, but well down from their 34 percent share in Texas in 1984, when Jesse Jackson ran. Obama won 85 percent of blacks in Texas. Clinton won white women by 19 points; white men, a swing group in many Democratic primaries this year, split evenly between the two."

"As in Ohio, the gap between âchangeâ and âexperienceâ as top attributes was narrower than in most primaries, a 17-point margin for âchange,â 44-27 percent, the fewest to pick change as the top attribute in any primary save Arkansas. Obama won âchangeâ voters by 72-27 percent, while those more concerned with experience went for Clinton almost unanimously, 91-8 percent."

9:21 pm ET: ABC projects that CLINTON HAS WON THE RHODE ISLAND PRIMARY. Off the schnide, and it's a 1-1 tie today. They can start breathing again at Clinton HQ. But Texas and Ohio loom.

9:20 pm ET: Huckabee concedes: "It looks pretty apparent tonight that he will in face achieve 1191 delegates."

9:18 pm ET: ABC's John Berman reports that GOP sources confirm John McCain will visit the White House tomorrow. ABC's Jennifer Duck says this will be an endorsement event. The pieces are falling into place.

And what's with this long Huckabee baseball imagery?

9:13 pm ET: AP reports that McCain has passed the magic number of 1,191 delegates, for what it's worth. (ABC's count is a bit different because we haven't contacted as many former Romney delegates as the AP.) It's as official as it's going to get before the convention: John McCain will be the Republican nominee for president. And we're really no closer at this hour to knowing who he'll face, which must bring a smile to his face.

9:10 pm ET: These are edgy, tense moments at the Clinton campaign -- the hour or two that determines a political legacy. It still seems at this moment like the campaign will continue -- one victory being the new (low) bar. But it will be anxious at Camp Clinton until or unless she breaks the 12-loss streak.

9 pm ET: Polls close in two more states, and ABC News projects that MCCAIN WILL WIN THE RHODE ISLAND AND TEXAS PRIMARIES. So that makes it a clean sweep on McCain's clinching night -- know Huck-a-distractions on the horizon.

And now Ohio can start rolling in, with polls there closed (albeit late).

8:50 pm ET: ABC's Kevin Chupka reports that the end of Huckabee's road is very, very near: "According to a senior Huckabee staffer the plan is for Huckabee to return to Little Rock late tonight and speak with Senator John McCain tomorrow during the day to discuss his concession plans. He knows it's over but wants to concede in such a way as to be in line with his party's candidate."

8:44 pm ET: Clinton campaign is organizing a conference call at this hour to try to stir the pot on the Texas caucus system. Not the first time we've heard them make noise about possible irregularities -- legit or not (and there seems to be something there) this is pre-spin, in case she loses badly there.

8:25 pm ET: ABC's Kevin Chupka catches up with Huckabee adviser Ed Rollins: When I asked him about tonight's speech and what to expect going forward he said "congrats to mccain and figure out next steps tomorrow." So tomorrow it is...

8:19 pm ET: ABC's Kate Snow reports that Bill Clinton did 50 (5-oh) local media interviews today. That's a lot, even by his machine-like standards. Think he wants this?

8:17 pm ET: A few interesting things out of Ohio, as we wait for results -- which will have to wait until at least 9 pm, because at least one county has extended voting. Union turnout was down a bit from expectations. Clinton seems to have regained the edge she's had in the past among female voters -- that's huge for her, for obvious reasons. And the economy was the biggest issue in Ohio, as expected. I think it's fair to say that Sen. Clinton would like a few more Ohios in the union.

8:14 pm ET: ABc's Jay shaylor weighs in with some color from an independent candidate: "Long-shot presidential candidate Ralph Nader and an aide came into the Amtrak Acela lounge at NYC's Penn Station about 15 minutes ago, waiting to board an 8:15pm train to DC.

"The aide suggested they sit in an area where CNN is on and carrying primary voting analysis and results.

"Nader shook his head and indicated he wasn't at all interested. He opted for a seat in the one corner of the room without a view of the TV."

7:57 pm ET: Sort of a lull in the action now as we wait for the poll closings in the last two states -- and for vote counts in Ohio. It just feels (and it's just a feeling) at this point that this evening isn't going to wrap anything up. Keep in mind that the Clinton campaign will jump on any shred of good news to stay in the mix...

7:36 pm ET: From ABC's Ron Claiborne: "It's 6:25 pm Central time and John McCain is the projected winner of primaries in Vermont and Ohio, the balloons in the huge ballroom of the Fairmont Hotel in Dallas are suspended from the ceiling in nets, primed for their triumphant descent when/if McCain claims the Republican nomination tonight ... and, discounting media members, there's barely a half-dozen people here. Could McCain's long road back from near oblivion last summer to sewing up the GOP nomination actually turn out to be somewhat anti-climatic?"

7:30 pm ET: ABC CALLS OHIO FOR MCCAIN. Another nail is hammered in Huckabee's coffin -- the real quesiton is will he get out tomorrow or Thursday? And no call yet on the Democratic side -- here's guessing there won't be a call for a while yet in this always-interesting state.

7:03 pm ET: Vermont, of course, is among the most liberal states. But this could matter for the delegate edge -- an early close means Obama could run up the margin there, and build on his delegate lead.

7 pm ET: Right at poll closing -- ABC is calling VERMONT FOR BARACK OBAMA. Not a suprise -- but that makes it an even dozen, 12 in a row for Obama. It also eliminates a piece of Clinton's slim margin for error. It gives Obama some positive news coverage early this evening -- but Ohio and Texas, of course, will dominate all.

Also, McCain adds to his margin with the Vermont victory. Whatever happens on the Democratic side, this could be Huckabee's last gasp this evening.

6:57 pm ET: We have PRELIMINARY exit polls - updated through 5 pm ET, but as a policy, we don't discuss them in terms of winners and losers until after state poll closing times have passed. We don't have access to them, incidentally, until after 5 pm, to reduce the opportunities for slips.

6:19 pm ET: Kevin -- the cancellation factor among races -- Latinos and black voters essentially washing each out out, is something I've heard from a number of smart Texas hands. That leaves it with white Democrats in Texas, a rapidly changing and unpredictable bunch.

6:06 pm ET: LESD -- you make a valid point -- of course she can stay in as long as she wants, just like Ron Paul. But in a sense, after today, for the next seven weeks at least the only voters that matter are the superdelegates -- themselves a politically savvy bunch. Those who are still undecided are particularly cautious -- they want to be with a winner. If there's no clear victor tonight, might most of them remain on the sideliens?

5:56 pm ET: A fascinating early read on exit polls, from ABC's Gary Langer: "The theme of change continues to resonate in Ohio and Texas, but not by as wide a margin as in most previous primaries. The ability to 'bring needed change' beats 'experience' as the most important quality in a candidate by about a 20-point margin in Ohio and by about 15 points in Texas, according to preliminary exit poll results. . . . Across all previous primaries this year, by contrast, 'change' has beaten 'experience' by 31 points."

Hmmm -- who's sweating those numbers?

5:37 pm ET: A key point in interpreting tonight -- is there room in this race for another Clinton comeback? At this point, it wouldn't shock anyone to have another unexpeted turn -- but this would be a new role for her. How does it fit?

4:53 pm ET: Regarding Ty's comment -- 100 percent of the delegates would do it -- but that's not plausible. Generally, if Obama gets just 15 percent in jurisdictions, he'd get at least one delegate. Clinton would have to win contests almost literally 70-30 to make up the gap in pledged delegates.

And yes, Florida and Michigan provide intriguing possibilities -- but I don't see that getting settled short of an agreement to re-vote.

--------------

Rick Klein from ABC's The Note here -- I'll be live-blogging this evening as the returns roll in from Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island, and Vermont.

A quick thought before we get any numbers in -- I'm amazed at how successfully the Clinton campaign has calibrated expectations. Just a few weeks ago, no less an authority than Bill Clinton was saying that Ohio and Texas were both must-wins for his wife. Now, the Clinton campaign has laid the groundwork to stay in the race even if she loses one of the two states she's pinned all her hopes on. Her play is for momentum, not even delegates, and that's an argument that can get traction -- even if it can't last forever.

Essentially, if she pulls off even one win (Texas or Ohio), expect the Clinton campaign to argue that, a) Democrats are having serious second thoughts; b) too many questions remain about Barack Obama, questions that will only grow more urgent with time; c) Obama couldn't compete against John McCain because he can't put away Clinton; and d) therefore, remaining states (and lots and lots of superdelegates) should go with Clinton to save the party in 2008.

Hillary Clinton still has a very serious math problem: Almost regardless of what happens today and in the dwindling number of remaining states, she will be behind Obama in delegates when the process ends. But that's not the end of the race, not necessarily. And the fact that we're even considering this thing wide open, after Obama's run of 11 straight victories, is fairly incredible.

Should be an interesting night. Thoughts? What does Hillary Clinton have to do to stay in the mix? Will it matter if she's still behind substantially in terms of delegates? And who -- if anyone -- would ever be able to prevail on her to get out of Obama's way, should it come to that?

March 4, 2008 in Vote 2008: Democrats | Permalink | User Comments (271)

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With the constant resetting of the goal posts, it would appear that the Clinton campaign thinks it can stay in no matter what the results from today's voting.

I continue to think the negativity of the past couple of weeks -- seems like a month -- has hurt Hillary more than it has Barack Obama. I can't imagine another month of "Shame On You" doing anything but hurting Clinton and the party's momentum moving toward November.

But, we'll have to see how the tally goes. Then, as others have mentioned, II think the pressure will come from outside the two campaigns to inject some realism into the mix.

Posted by: Jackt51 | Mar 4, 2008 4:29:04 PM

Considering the delegate math, it seems like Clinton's best--if not only--hope is to find some plausible rationale for staying in the race (a win anywhere tonight for example). Then she just has to hope that the Obama campaign makes a huge mistake or some other significant outside event fundamentally alters the race. If that happened, the superdelegates could always swing her way, even if there aren't enough pledged delegates to clinch it.

Is that accurate? If the results are split tonight and Clinton won even 100% of remaining delegates, would that be enough?

Although that's not likely, what reason does she have to get out if she does find that rationale, however weak it might be? Some vague notion of a damaged legacy seems like a risk she'd take for a while if the gamble could win her the nomination.

Posted by: Ty Parker | Mar 4, 2008 4:34:20 PM

I think Obama supporters are worried, and they should be. He peaked, and now it's all down HILL for him, as of yesterday....

Posted by: Democrat 08 | Mar 4, 2008 4:42:01 PM

Eventually Camp Clinton will run out of field on which to move the goalposts back.

Unfortunately for the Democrats I expect tonight to be a draw with them splitting the states.

Of course 2 weeks ago Ohio and Texas were Clintons firewall. Now that the firewall isn't holding they are attempting to redefine.

It will be interesting to see if Richardson comes out tomorrow with an endorsement as he indicated whoever had the most delegates after today should be the nominee. The GOP has to be loving this..................

Posted by: korey | Mar 4, 2008 4:42:42 PM

Team McCain is loving this. Team Clinton pulls a first-rate hatchet-job (BO in Somali clothing; red phone; "just a speech"; Rezko; NAFTA/Canada; "as far as I know"; darker skin in ad) to destroy the Democratic Party's great hope at overwhelming victory in November and, in the process, reinforces all of the negative perceptions about herself.

And even still, the best case scenario for Team Clinton is a result which requires (1) superdelegates negating the choice of elected delegates and/or (2) changing the rules for FL/MI.

Either way this shakes out, Team McCain is licking its chops over the prospect of a weakened Democratic opponent and party overall, all thanks to Team Clinton.

I'm embarassed to be a Democrat.

Posted by: Vote4BO | Mar 4, 2008 4:44:56 PM

Florida and Michigan

They will be at convention, whether with new delegates, the ones they have now or revoted for, but they will be at convention.

There's lots of MATH left for a Clinton win.

Posted by: s.b. | Mar 4, 2008 4:46:43 PM

The Obama camp is trying to create a wave of opinion to force Sen. Clinton out. LET THE PEOPLE VOTE AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS. Stop trying to predetermine the outcome. Clinton is right--the media is FINALLY beginning to apply a modicum of scrutiny to Obama. He is whispering to Canada. Has never held hearings on Afghanisan despite his subcommittee chairmanship. He has deep ties to a crooked campaign contributor. He has very little record of accomplishment despite an attractive life story. He has no experience with national security issues. People will have second thoughts now that the halo is dimming and people can see that there's no there there.

Posted by: roger | Mar 4, 2008 4:46:46 PM

I agree. The Clintons really did a hatchet job on Obama. They are only making it easier for the Republicans to hold on to power. Obama should ahve tossed this "no negative" crap and uncovered all her skeletons. God knows no one in politics has more than the Clintons have. Are you seriously telling me that Bill hasn't slept with another woman since he left the White House? What about her tax returns?

Posted by: Kevin | Mar 4, 2008 4:49:25 PM

I have no problem with letting the voters decide based on the rules agreed to by the candidates.

The PROBLEM is Camp Clinton keeps want to CHANGE the rules after they agreed to them because things aren't going their way; seating delegates in states they promised not to campaign in, threatening lawsuits and legal action in states that they view as unfavorable (Nevada and now Texas), trying to tell people the Automatic Delegates (known to most as Super Dels) had a responsibility NOT to the voters but to the party....................

BY ALL MEANS let the voters decide but that IS NOT want Camp CLinton wants UNLESS it comes down on their side. Hypocritical as it gets............

Posted by: korey | Mar 4, 2008 4:51:39 PM

I have no problem with letting the voters decide based on the rules agreed to by the candidates.

BY ALL MEANS let the voters decide but that IS NOT want Camp CLinton wants UNLESS it comes down on their side. Hypocritical as it gets............

Posted by: korey | Mar 4, 2008 4:51:48 PM

attn vote4bo
and by the way, this applies if it is hillary or obama. keep your chin up!
proud to be a democrat

Posted by: lori | Mar 4, 2008 4:57:02 PM

As up to 60% of voters in Texas and 35% of voters in OH voted early, I have to think that we should be very careful reading anything one way or another into exit polls. Will the media should more restraint than usual?

Posted by: Jessica | Mar 4, 2008 5:00:21 PM

The obama people are trying to end the game regardless of the rules. Superdelegates can vote however they want, yet the obama people are acting as though it's illegitimate for them to vote any way but to follow the pledged delegates. Them's NOT the rules. Supers can vote however they think best. Otherwise they wouldn't exist, and only pledged delegates could matter. The Obama worshipers can't seem to see through their Kool-Aid vapors that real people with real jobs who have been hurt bad by the Bush years need a president who is a fighter, who is experienced, who can protect America. Not just someone who gives a nice speech but who hasn't actually done anything worthy of note. Name 5 things he's done as a community organizer, state senator, and US senator that is worthy of note and then makes him a worthy candidate for President. The vapors are clearing. People will see that Clinton is the best choice to be beat McCain and to be President.

Posted by: roger | Mar 4, 2008 5:04:23 PM

Hatchet job? do you people even follow politics? it's not the clinton people who lied about the Obama campaign's secret meeting with Canada telling them not to worry about what lies Obama campaigns on. it's not the clinton people who took loads of money from corrupt Rezko. it's not the clinton people who are trying to end the primaries before all the votes are in. if the obama people are so delicate they can't take any criticism--even though the media has been nothing but fawning!--they will never last in the general election. politics is not sport. it is not idol worshipping. it is a tough business that requires thick skin. Obama is just not up to it. he is not ready to be President. Stop whining and get used to the fact that he has peaked and Clinton will win the nomination, despite the Obama-media conspiracy to drive her out prematurely.

Posted by: pinkberry | Mar 4, 2008 5:08:26 PM

How can you say you're proud to be a Dem?

You've got Team McCain out there actively criticizing the right-wing crazies who go below-the-belt on Obama and, at the same time, our own Team Clinton is using every dirty trick in the book when it's already too late for her to win in a legitimate fashion. What's there to be proud of?

If Obama loses to Team Clinton, all Obama supporters should hold their fire, let Team Clinton get waxed by Team McCain, and then come back with a vengeance to support Obama again in 2012.

Posted by: Vote4BO | Mar 4, 2008 5:10:23 PM

It appears that Hillary has a good shot at winning Ohio and Rhode Island. Texas is also possible. Therefore I don't look for her to quit after today.

Unfortunately what this comeback shows is that negative campaigning works. That, to me, is the fault of the voters.

Posted by: Tom Joad47 | Mar 4, 2008 5:14:03 PM

It's time for us to moved to phase 2
Mending the party
Mrs Clinton will you please step aside if you do not win Texas and Ohio by large margins.
For once listen to your husband and the your party, so we can start working on John Mccain.

I lost respect for your husband, after he gave George Bush the baton, instead of handing it intact to Al Gore .
I still have respect for you at this time.
Think of the American People that you care so much about.
Hold your head high and pass the baton.

Posted by: mugzinnys | Mar 4, 2008 5:16:58 PM

Obama HAS WON 25 STATES and clinton 12

Bottom line: The clinton's will do anything for power-including handing the executive mansion back to the Republicans:

FOR MORE WARS

When the clinton's were in the executive mansion they kicked ALL the senators in the testicles...and handed congress over to Gingrich and Dole...because they are genius lawyers who know everything and the bodies just keep piling up...

With the bushies in power they utilize entrenched hard-liners and create a 'priesthood' that isolates the administration and freezes out dissent.

Barack Obama DOES NOT think he is a genius...as if the congress won't work with a President who actually respects them and does't think HE IS A KING.

If ever we required a TEAM WORKING TOGETHER- IT IS NOW...divide and conquer IS KILLING US...we have to unite and govern...

bush clinton bush clinton got us here

HERE AIN'T ANY GOOD...

VOTE CHANGE

Posted by: Liam Brent kelly | Mar 4, 2008 5:19:29 PM

Hillary, she is a fighter sort of like a pit bull.

Posted by: America | Mar 4, 2008 5:25:29 PM

Roger, understand you support Hillary and not Obama - no problem there. But as a neutral, it concerns me that the Clinton camp:

1) want to reseat Fla/Mic delegates despite agreeing to their exclusion at the outset

2) threaten possible legal action over Texas' primary setup

3) could easily dismiss today's results if not up to expectations, prolonging the race to the detriment of the Democratic party.

If the roles were reversed, would you be as happy about
Obama doing all of the above as you are for your chosen candidate?

Posted by: Aka | Mar 4, 2008 5:26:50 PM

Yep and if Florida and Michigan revote who do you think they'll vote for? My bet is Clinton would get even more delegates than she has now.

If I were Barack, i'd say leave the delegates as they are and let them come.

If he doesn't how easy is it to campagn against someone who wanted to disenfranchise you.

As it stands now he probably would get most of the undeclared from Mimchigan if he let them in and most of Edwards delegates from Florida.

If there is a redo, looking more and more like a primary by the way, Clinton gets to put her own delegates inthose spots.

There's a lot of math there for Clinton from between 100 delegates advantage now to probably more than that in redo primary.

And if you are the govenor of either of these states, that's money well spent with focus on your state and all kinds of money pouring in for hotels meals ads etc.

Florida and Michigan will revote and deliver Clinton the nomination. Like I said, if I were Barack, I'd say let them in as is.

Posted by: s.b. | Mar 4, 2008 5:26:57 PM

Hillary should keep going it helps Obama with how to defend against McCain.

Posted by: America | Mar 4, 2008 5:27:22 PM

Ok pinkberry.

I gather you would vehemently oppose any candidate who takes money from corrupt businessmen, or who says conflicting things about NAFTA.

See my point? Even if everything Team Clinton says about Obama is true, she's got all of the same problems, amplified exponentially, in a matchup with McCain.

If you truly wanted your beloved Team Clinton to beat McCain, you would not want her out there berating Obama on issues that are even worse for Team Clinton.

It's pure destructive lunacy, and Karl Rove could not have designed it better himself.

Posted by: Vote4BO | Mar 4, 2008 5:28:46 PM

Hey Rick - Checking in for the early scoop. Someone usurped my handle above, but lack my eloquence (IMHO). I think Clinton should be allowed to ponder tonight's results carefully and make her decision. I think she must win both TX and OH, at least in the pop. vote to make any case for going on. If she doesn't do that, then PA looks iffy as does any chance of the FL/MI re-vote making a difference. Once again, the demo breakdowns will tell the better part of the story. Early data suggests strong Independent turnout in the Dem. primaries (20-25% in OH and TX, respectively).

Posted by: Kevin | Mar 4, 2008 5:29:46 PM

In politics Rules are rules until there not Rules anymore

Posted by: Bishop | Mar 4, 2008 5:30:05 PM

Mr. ‘Open Government’ making back room deals with foreign nations.
Mr. "Integrity" having questionable land deals with a known slumlord.
Mr. "Let’s focus on Afghanistan" never having a single hearing about it in his NATO committee. He don't care USA's safety, his election first.
---------------------------
Obama still have so called
"Mr. Hope"
"Mr. Change"
"Mr. future"

The hotair balloons are blowing up now.

Posted by: larratta | Mar 4, 2008 5:33:20 PM

America - You've got it all wrong. By doing it themselves, Team Clinton legitimizes all of these negative attacks for McCain's use in the general ("If it's OK for Team Clinton to say, then it's OK for us").

If Team Clinton had stayed positive, then Obama would be able to paint Team McCain and the republicans as the negative ones. Now, Team Clinton has endorsed these negative attacks, freeing Team McCain from any back-lash when he recycles them over the next few months.

Posted by: Vote4BO | Mar 4, 2008 5:33:43 PM

As far as Obama winning more states, how many Idaho caucuses does it take to equal a California primary?

Posted by: s.b. | Mar 4, 2008 5:34:51 PM

Liam,

Many of the states that Obama has won will go Republican in the General, (Alaska and Utah, for starters,) while Los Angeles County is bigger than another four or five "states" that Obama is credited with winning.

If we take all of the large counties in California, and look at them as if they were states, then your whole mathematical arguement is moot.

Let's talk about the toss-up states, where the real interesting dialog exists.

Will Texas go Democratic in the General? How about Florida?

Posted by: OhioNative | Mar 4, 2008 5:35:00 PM

Larratta - How many national security crises has Hillary personally handled, ever? That's right. Zero. The same number as Laura Bush.

Posted by: Vote4BO | Mar 4, 2008 5:36:34 PM

A CEO of the International Profit Associates, who is a disbarred lawyer also has a criminal record. The IPA firm does have a civil suit against it since 2001 in an ongoing investigation. The charges in the suit are brought on by 103 female employees who were subjected to Degrading anti-female rhetoric, Explicit type of Language that created a HOSTILE working environment, and assault. The Firm denies everything but with the top CEO with a criminal record I believe the 103 female employees. Why is this information IMPORTANT? Because it was reported in the news on February 29 2008 that Hillary had received donations from this company and it's top employees of the IPA Firm and continues with that Companies support. As a woman, I cannot vote for Hillary since she ignores the 103 Female Employees.

Posted by: Angie | Mar 4, 2008 5:37:28 PM

Liam - Do you really think that everyone who voted for Team Clinton in California will stay home or vote McCain? Primary voters who go blue in blue states stay blue for the general election. Primary voters who go blue in red states only stay blue for the general election if their primary candidate is there.

Posted by: Vote4BO | Mar 4, 2008 5:40:05 PM

Angie - You can add that BILL CLINTON is a disbarred lawyer with a bit of a record of his own, i.e. lying under oath.

Posted by: Vote4BO | Mar 4, 2008 5:43:12 PM

So I get it we set the primary up until june just to be doing something lets take it to the end. Those are the real rules

Posted by: Bishop | Mar 4, 2008 5:46:31 PM

Rush, who gave us 8 years of Bush endorsed Hillary. That's all you need to know to vote for Obama.

Posted by: John | Mar 4, 2008 5:47:22 PM

IF anyone IS suggesting that Obama WILL NOT win California in the general- they need a new prescription

Posted by: Liam Brent Kelly | Mar 4, 2008 5:47:59 PM

Liam, Texas will go GOP in the general. Same with Florida

Posted by: MFM | Mar 4, 2008 5:48:14 PM

Today's primary election Victory on all four states goes to Hillary Clinton!

Barack Hussein Obama and his cult will have to hide tonight.

Hey pinkberry,
I solute you for giving such details to Obamaies:

"Hatchet job? do you people even follow politics? it's not the clinton people who lied about the Obama campaign's secret meeting with Canada telling them not to worry about what lies Obama campaigns on. it's not the clinton people who took loads of money from corrupt Rezko. it's not the clinton people who are trying to end the primaries before all the votes are in. if the obama people are so delicate they can't take any criticism--even though the media has been nothing but fawning!--they will never last in the general election. politics is not sport. it is not idol worshipping. it is a tough business that requires thick skin. Obama is just not up to it. he is not ready to be President. Stop whining and get used to the fact that he has peaked and Clinton will win the nomination, despite the Obama-media conspiracy to drive her out prematurely."

Posted by: jmaya, iowa | Mar 4, 2008 5:49:25 PM

Latest polls show Dem voters 2-1 want the race to continue and it should. All the voters should be allowed to cast their vote and be counted.

This primary race is very tame compared to past races. They are both trying to win of course. The pundits are correct - this is nothing compared to the onslaught that will happen with the general election. The RNC machine has been manipulating things since last June but most new voters cannot see it. It is called divide and conquer people. It is the RNC's only shot at winning. Try ignoring campaign bias, tactics, and rhetoric completely. Try ignoring the MSM bias completely.

Search Vote Smart to find the organizations website for unbiased facts and make the smart choice. Dont let the media and the RNC tactics make us lemmings! The voters and the SD's will settle this at the convention the way it should be... by the rules agreed on to start with. The unity ticket is the answer! (The RNC fears that the most.) One should be nominee and the other should be running mate. Then everyone gets closure and the party unites to beat the Reps.

Posted by: DCVoter | Mar 4, 2008 5:50:53 PM

How will Dems vote if Clinton or Obama get the nomination?

Posted by: MFM | Mar 4, 2008 5:55:21 PM

Time for Obama to remove the gloves and throttle Mrs. Clinton as the baggage-laden, dissembling, new-persona-every-day, poll-driven, triangulating divider and hypocrite she really is.

Bring up all of the warts and corruption of the Clinton years, the healthcare debacle, Vince Foster, TravelGate, Whitewater, the missing tax returns, emails and documents, the chameleon-like persona, etc., etc., etc., ad naseum....

If she wants zero-sum, scorched-earth politics, GIVE THEM TO HER! She'll go down like a sack of dog chow.

Take off the gloves, Barack; America will forgive you. We know how hard you've tried to keep it clean, but there are too many snakes in the cesspool.

**FRY 'EM**

Posted by: Mark | Mar 4, 2008 5:57:44 PM

Angie - I am a woman and activist so I understand your concern.

If you ignore the spin you are being fed on that issue, the facts are:

The EEOC filed suit against IPA on behalf of some women who worked there in 2000-2001.

IPA responded by immediately handling the situation and bringing in and independent organization to restructure their management practices.

Since that time there have been zero unresolved issues relating to discrimination or sexual harassment at IPA.

The EEOC after 6 years is still unable to win a case against IPA.

Companies are not guilty of practices just because they are accused of them. They admit there was a problem but they handled it immediately and have proven that. I think 6 years is a long enough time to be vetted.

As a woman, I agree with the Clinton camp. Unless IPA is proven guilty of wrongdoings, there is no reason to reject its contributions. They have stated that if things change they will certainly take appropriate action.

This is not a case where the candidate was involved in anything and not a case where a contributor has been found guilty of anything. It is all RNC spin.

Posted by: DCVoter | Mar 4, 2008 6:00:48 PM

What does she need tonight to stay in the race? Nothing. Ron Paul is still in the race, and Clinton can stay in too.

But what would it take to make her the Democratic nominee? The super delegates would have to ignore the fact that Senator Obama will have more pledged delegates and have won the popular vote in more states. Michigan and Florida aren't coming back, because there is no viable compromise position to bring them back.

Senator Clinton may "survive" tonight and find a rationale to stay in the race. That doesn't mean she will be the Democratic nominee. I am not a Clinton hater. I think she's a good candidate and a very impressive human being. But unless someone has video of Senator Obama shooting heroin with Tony Rezko on the L train, she can't win. The math is the math is the math.

Posted by: LESD | Mar 4, 2008 6:03:17 PM

MFM - If the RNC tactics are successful, disgruntled Dems will vote for McCain. I saw an article somewhere (cant find it) where the rep strategists think 25% of the current Dem vote will defect to McCain. Another stated 10% of the current Dem vote are republicans intentionally crossing over that plan to vote for McCain in the GE.

If the Dems and Indies and Reps who are truly supporting Dem candidates will come together and stop the RNC tactics at the convention. The unity ticket will beat McCain.

Posted by: DCVoter | Mar 4, 2008 6:07:01 PM

Reading exit poll tea leaves and ratios, mathematically speaking the Latino and African-American vote are basically canceling each other out. Therefore it is the split of white votes which will likely determine the outcome.

Posted by: Kevin | Mar 4, 2008 6:18:54 PM

Hillary should not exit this race unless she looses both Ohio and Texas. It seems to me that the momentum of Obama is stalling at least. Also, the Florida governor seemed to suggest that he would be willing to consider a 're-do' primary as opposed to a caucus which benefits Clinton. I really can't see Obama beating McCain in the General Election and I think that if Hillary wins both big states tonight that the remaining superdelegates will seriously look at this.

Posted by: Louise | Mar 4, 2008 6:18:57 PM

It is particularly difficult for me to understand why Hillary, or her supporters, who are all supposedly Democrats would want to "Swiftboat" the Democrats first real chance at winning the White House in 8 Years. If there is no chance and this is ripping the party apart and giving the Repulicans an opportunity to take the election then I'm sorry I just don't get it!! What is this win at any cost? I sure hope the Democrat party is not this stupid....otherwise they deserve to lose.

Posted by: John | Mar 4, 2008 6:20:49 PM

According to exits, Latinos are 2-1 Clinton and 30% of vote vs. African-Americans 4-1 Obama and 20% of vote. I saw an interesting post that RI exits showed a horse race there? Heard anything?

Posted by: Kevin | Mar 4, 2008 6:23:42 PM

vote4bo- you sound like a 'pub now. whatever hillary is doing in desperation doesnt have to hurt obama against mccain. just think of it as warm up for obama. i am proud of dems 'cause they look out for all americans not just the richest of the rich. and maybe they dont get a lot done with the moron in the whitehouse but atleast their hearts are warm not cold.
and i am from michigan and i was an edwards supporter and if i could re vote it would be obama, just for the record.

Posted by: lori | Mar 4, 2008 6:29:11 PM

LESD - I played with the numbers on delegates and SD's... it is possible for either of them to be an outright nominee but not before the convention because that is when the official delegate and SD votes are cast. Remember, the system is designed so that votes can be changed by delegates and SD although there is not usually much shift of pledged delegate votes. The SD's have stated their job is to use their best judgement for the good of the party and cast votes for those who did not vote basically. Best judgement includes consideration for electoral picture as well as for a candidate who might have something come up after the primaries that will cause defeat in the GE. The SD's and the candidates believe there will be a clear nominee and the party will unify. We should have faith in the process until it is proven to not work! It is a long time between now and August.

Posted by: DCVoter | Mar 4, 2008 6:32:08 PM

If I ever met Hillary Clinton in person I would refuse to shake her hand. Shame on you for dragging the Democratic Party through the mud and giving the Republicans a chance in the next election. And shame on anyone voting for Hillary and allowing this debacle to continue on.

Posted by: Adam | Mar 4, 2008 6:34:28 PM

Liam - the rules allow MI and FL a course of action to take to get delegates seated. The candidates can also request under the rules, that delegates be seated. No one is trying to change the rules on that.

The SD vote is also based on rules. Obama has been an advocate of changing those rules as you are suggesting also. Dean has already spoken on that matter. The rules for SD's will not be changed.

Posted by: DCVoter | Mar 4, 2008 6:36:42 PM

Hillary throwing the kitchen sink, the toilet and dustbin on Obama last week no doubt had a negative effect on him, and it will show today I guess. But she can't continue in that fashion, nor can't she suddenly be the kind and gentle fellow Democrat again; there are no convincing roles for her left to play in this race if she doesn't choose the whining track.

I think in the weeks ahead all her negativity and straight lies will hit her back, straight in her face, and she'll start losing more parts of her support such as blue collar workers who don't like dirty political games.

Posted by: Greg | Mar 4, 2008 6:39:24 PM

Thanks John... I was hoping I wasn't the only one that saw what was happening here.

Posted by: Adam | Mar 4, 2008 6:39:27 PM

I for the live of me can't even begin to understand why noone has stood up to Hillary yet? Bill Richardson made a statement yesterday, Nancy Pelosi has made a statement that we should not go against the will of the voters. Mathematically she can not win; when will someone finally take her behind the barn and shoot her?

Posted by: Adam | Mar 4, 2008 6:42:21 PM

Rick: I have a question about media coverage. Do the people in the media, like you and the on air people have ALL of the exit poll results right now? Or only some of those results? Are you kept away from them until the polls close so there will be no accidental slips?

Posted by: Andrew | Mar 4, 2008 6:52:41 PM

Here's a thought that's been burning me up lately; I saw today where Barack said that he was surprised that the media has bought into Hillary's assertion that the press at large is playing favorites with him. I think there is a little credence to her claims that she gets tough questions, and all that. And there is credence as well to the fact that a lot of people - myself included - are a bit smitten with the phenomenon that his campaign is inspiring. But no one at all is suggesting that she is getting pretty favorable treatment herself. Most other candidates who lose 11 contests in a row would be moved to page three at best. I know she continues to raise money and her campaign machine is one of the best - but I think that fact that she is getting favorable press and is considered still in the race is impressive and constitutes special treatment. Don't get me wrong, I think that unfortunately she is still in the race. I am just saying that the press has as just a skewed perspective on her as they do on Obama that sometimes plays in her favors and sometimes favors him. Anyone have any thoughts about that?

Posted by: Curt | Mar 4, 2008 6:56:03 PM

rick-what say you about hillary's use of dirty politics. do you think it will help mccain, or if its obama, he can overcome the residue hillary left behind? thanks abc

Posted by: lori | Mar 4, 2008 6:58:00 PM

Remember, Clinton and Obama are running for the right to represent the Democratic party in the general election. In MOST states, Clinton has won the most votes from members of the party. Obama has managed to win many of his states by garnering the most crossover votes. These are votes by people who have decided that they are not Democrats. Why should they dictate who represents my party? Should superdelegates, who are at the convention to represent the will of the party, be bound to follow the votes of non-democrats or should they follow the votes of members of the party that is selecting a candidate. If so, most will vote for Hillary. She has, by a wide margin, won the majority vote of the members of the party she is seeking to represent.

Posted by: William | Mar 4, 2008 6:58:36 PM

curt- i totally agree- if it was anyone else-- they would have been booted out ''dont let the door hit ya'' by now
just look at what happened with edwards
that was a good point you made

Posted by: lori | Mar 4, 2008 7:05:02 PM

Did you see Bill on Sunday when he spoke to an African American congregation and said: "I've been waiting all my life for an African American president, and I've also been waiting all my life for a women president...so why did God have to go and give them both to me in the same campaign year...Slick Will's still got it. I mean with him it is an ART! He still sets the bench mark for Schmooooz! How patronizing?

Posted by: michael basham | Mar 4, 2008 7:05:11 PM

Hang in there Hillary! The White House is yours! We believe in you!!!!!

Posted by: Tyler | Mar 4, 2008 7:06:52 PM

I dont think swiftboating is happening between Dem candidates. I do think the RNC is spinning it like that through the media to keep Dem voters fighting.

Posted by: DCVoter | Mar 4, 2008 7:10:54 PM

You guys Rock! Keep on raisng cane in here. I'm gonna go "chill" the Moet Chandon. Can't wait for nightline...this is like Christmas Eve.

Posted by: michael basham | Mar 4, 2008 7:12:45 PM

hey dcv you are probably right. sometimes we get so into it we cant see the forest for the trees.
i wish rick would give us a comment on it

Posted by: lori | Mar 4, 2008 7:16:28 PM

TWELVE (12) executive WINS for Obama...

Nuff said.

Posted by: Twelve | Mar 4, 2008 7:16:53 PM

As a Wisconsin voter from 2 weeks ago, I have discovered a new McCain/Clinton strategy. I talked with several republicans at work and in my neiborhood and found out that because McCain has it all wrapped up they all went and voted for Hillary because they feel that McCain can beat her easier than Obama. If it is widespread in my small community, how much is going on nationwide?