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Clinton Wins Ky; Obama Wins Oregon: What's Next?
May 21, 2008 7:31 AM
ABC News' David Chalian Reports: Despite a second overwhelming Kentucky victory in as many weeks and a sizeable loss in Oregon, Sen. Hillary Clinton's, D-N.Y., faces daunting math against Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., for the Democratic nomination.
In the total universe of delegates, there are 311 outstanding: 217 of those are as of yet uncommitted superdelegates, 94 are thus far unallocated pledged delegates from last night's contest in OR and the upcoming three contests in Puerto Rico, South Dakota, and Montana.
Clinton needs 84 percent of all the remaining delegates -- pledged and superdelegates -- to hit the magic number of 2026.
Obama needs only 23 percent of all the remaining delegates to hit the magic number of 2026 -- "within reach," indeed.
Thus far, Clinton has netted 154,778 popular votes for the evening. But only 88 percent of precincts have currently reported in Oregon. There is more vote to count there and likely more opportunity for Obama to make up some of that popular vote ground.
Not counting the rogue contests in Florida and Michigan, Clinton is -- as of this writing -- trailing Obama in ABC News' national popular vote count by 424,724 votes. [If you include Florida, where both candidates were on the ballot, Clinton would still be trailing Obama. When you add in Michigan (where Obama removed his name from the ballot), Clinton would be roughly 200,000 votes ahead of Obama in the current count.]
In addition to hoping for some huge intervening event that would upend the current trajectory of the contest, Clinton and her campaign are also hoping to push the magic number needed to secure the nomination a bit further from Obama's reach by arguing for the inclusion of Michigan and Florida in the delegate count.
Should the DNC rules and bylaws committee emerge from its May 31 meeting in Washington, DC with some way to include the Florida and Michigan delegations as part of the nomination process, it is likely that the magic number would become greater than 2,026.
May 21, 2008 in Tancredo, Tom | Permalink | User Comments (186)
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I feel such loss for the women in America who struggled so hard for her as they wanted to see the cause advance. I personally felt that she abused and continues to abuse them with all this sexism crap.
I don't feel she is acknowledging the fact that it's not because she's a woman that America is holding her back.
It's because she's a poor choice for the position.
Posted by: DAVID NH | May 21, 2008 8:07:41 AM
Any other Democratic candidate would resign but not Hillary. There is nothing to be gained by proclaiming dumb uneducated white voters will not vote for a black candidate.
Posted by: David Jones | May 21, 2008 8:10:04 AM
90% blacks have voted for Obama... does that make them racists? What if 90% whites have voted for a white candidate against a black candidate?
Posted by: Trevor | May 21, 2008 8:25:16 AM
People, please, please, let's reserve such feelings for the real problem, that being McBush, or Bush the Third. He is the one we absolutely must beat in the fall and tearing each other up at this point will only help him win.
Posted by: pumpkinman | May 21, 2008 8:25:55 AM
is this the type of tactics women want to say they used to win a nomination...
most don't.
Posted by: dl | May 21, 2008 8:28:29 AM
Hillary - the Democratic candidate who got the most popular votes (from Republicans) of all Dems who ever ran for candidacy. Huzzah for Hil.
Posted by: Veronica Mars | May 21, 2008 8:28:46 AM
Go home Madam. You are not Mrs.Thatcher, or Indira Ghandi or Golda Meir. Political ambition does not equate with capability. One hopes that the American public is not subjected to you or your naked desire for power.
Posted by: David Eve | May 21, 2008 8:29:43 AM
The democratic primary continues because in fact despite the mathematics and dogma, the "people" in all our great states have not yet spoken. It would have been easy for Hillary Clinton to roll over for McCain and Obama and allow the peeing contest to begin, however she's been listening to the voters and their personal problems with this country and the current administration. Hillary Clinton has awakened a lot of us about how crooked the elections really are and what fuels her gas tank to drive to the very end of this process, has been just pure bravery. I must add also that the ballots for the delegates decision on June 3rd are "secret ballots" which gives them the chance to vote for who they truly think can defeat the republican party in November.
I continue to support Hillary all the way! Denise from Philly
Posted by: Denise Katz | May 21, 2008 8:30:03 AM
truth is: obama cannot reach the magic number. hillary cannot reach the magic number. even if you discard FL and MI (which you should not!) the magic number is 2026 PLEDGED delegates.
to put the superdelagates together with the pledged delegates is just FRAUD!
these people have been moving around from one camp to another for months now.
superdelegates CANNOT pledge and CANNOT vote until the convention.
so, STOP THE CRAPPY "MATH"!
obama has 1639 pledged delegates ONLY. hillary has 1502 ONLY.
to win the race a candidate needs 2026!!
neither obama nor hillary can reach that number by the time this round of popular voting is over.
LET THE PROCESS RUN ITS COURSE!
the democratic process is very well defined: when none of the candidates wins the necessary votes, the next step is that each one of them makes his/her case at the convention!
DEMAND THE MEDIA TELLS THE TRUTH!
Posted by: Average Joe | May 21, 2008 8:33:23 AM
Message to Mrs. Clinton
I apologize in advance if this is going to make Obama supporters angry and tear apart wisdoms of political pundits in America. Mrs. Clinton, your strong showing in West Virginia and Kentucky, and in large states like NY, OH, and PA means that millions of Americans will like to see you as the President. Please be there on the ballot in November 2008 – either as a democrat nominee or as an independent.
It is OK if many do not like you. In a three-way race, Obama, McCain and you, one does not need majority. Any candidate with 35-40% will get elected. And it will not be necessarily McCain, as most will think. Joe Lieberman won when he ran independent in spite of losing democratic primary. Party designations are only a tool to be on the ballot. People vote for the candidates. It is not uncommon in many countries to see candidates changing parties or forming new ones when there is popular support. Please do not worry about things like Clinton legacy and so on. That is mostly irrelevant. On behalf of millions of your supporters, I urge you to serve our country by running as independent. Let American people (and not some political pundits/ opinionated columnists) decide in November.
WSJ blog, thank you for the opportunity.
Posted by: neil1785 | May 21, 2008 8:34:16 AM
Denise... yeah, elections are crooked. People get to vote for the candidate, and Hillary is not winning? It's plain disgusting. Let's change the rules...
Posted by: Veronica Mars | May 21, 2008 8:34:21 AM
Clinton's campaign is $30 Million in the hole. Only 11 Million of that is to Hillary herself. Hillary is willing to step on the backs of small business for an astronomically small chance that she will be the next president. I think that people to whom she owes money should go after her personal assets, rather than have her hide behind the corporate veil.
Posted by: Mirza | May 21, 2008 8:38:23 AM
More people voted for Clinton than obama or anyone else. That is a fact.
Posted by: geevill | May 21, 2008 8:39:25 AM
Over 17million voters have cast support for Hillary....a MAJOR feat considering ALL of the hills she has had to climb. I know I will be attacked by Obama supporters, but I really don't care. I, like them, have EVERY right to support Mrs. Clinton because she IS the best candidate to run the country. Hillary 08!
Posted by: david from texas | May 21, 2008 8:44:44 AM
In the beginning every one thought Hillary is going to win the primary. Obama proved that they are wrong. This is going to happen in general election. He is going to win comfortably.
Some people say Obama is black. Unfortunately they are ignorant. He is neither black nor white. He is a super human.
Posted by: robinson | May 21, 2008 9:00:30 AM
Today's math questions: Which candidate is leading Sen. Clinton by 26% among Democrats nationwide? Which candidate is leading Sen. McCain (with or without all Clinton voters) by 8%? Which candidate has as of this morning $31 million in debt?
Posted by: Eugene | May 21, 2008 9:05:49 AM
My mind changed last night as I was listening to Clinton and Obama's speeches. I saw in Clinton, a candidate with the utmost passion for the American voter.....she was polished, heartfelt, and brilliant in her speech. Obama, I got the feeling he was not being truthful, that he wants the Presidency, but he didn't seem to have the passion as Hillary does. My wife, who is an Obama supporter, first commented on how "fake" his speech seemed, that he wasn't sincere. When Hillary spoke, her eyes welled up with tears. She decided that she will vote for Hillary, as well as I will. If Hillary doesn't win the nomination, we both will vote for McCain. If Hillary were to run as an Independent, she would get our vote. I see this trend continuing as of last night....Obama was not sincere, does not have the passion, drive, or desire. His promises are falling on deaf ears because there is no substance to them. He is a good man, but, he's not Presidential.
Posted by: david from texas | May 21, 2008 9:44:17 AM
Hillary lost me when I started keeping track of the candidates stated stances on issues. I noted that she's been on every side of most issues, with her latest position focused on whomever she my be addressing. She ran a very poor campaign, supported then dumped various rules/positions/constituents etc, mismanaged her money and her initial lead. Now she's playing the racism and sexism card. Carl Rove has nothing on her. She felt anointed and is desperately seeking a magic bullet to use against Obama, regardless of who she may hurt when she shoots it. I have lost all respect for her because she is showing that she only really cares about her own ambitions. Good Riddance
Posted by: Bendare Dondat | May 21, 2008 9:45:07 AM
I remember who voted to declare WAR on Iraq, and who said she'd Obliterate Iran, those are not things that are I want to vote for. Obama did not vote for the egregious war, nor does he want to obliterate Iran.
Those are the reasons I choose to vote for Obama.
Posted by: Charlotte | May 21, 2008 9:45:54 AM
Senator Obama will be the nominee because most of the media love him and have not scrutinized him carefully. But wait until November. If the very junior senator from Illinois cannot carry Democrats and independents in Pennsylvania, W. Virginia, Kentucky, etc. even though he has been declared the victor by party leaders and the media, then his campaign is in trouble.
Posted by: graniteman | May 21, 2008 9:57:03 AM
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