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Clinton Wins Ky; Obama Wins Oregon: What's Next?
May 21, 2008 7:31 AM
ABC News' David Chalian Reports: Despite a second overwhelming Kentucky victory in as many weeks and a sizeable loss in Oregon, Sen. Hillary Clinton's, D-N.Y., faces daunting math against Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., for the Democratic nomination.
In the total universe of delegates, there are 311 outstanding: 217 of those are as of yet uncommitted superdelegates, 94 are thus far unallocated pledged delegates from last night's contest in OR and the upcoming three contests in Puerto Rico, South Dakota, and Montana.
Clinton needs 84 percent of all the remaining delegates -- pledged and superdelegates -- to hit the magic number of 2026.
Obama needs only 23 percent of all the remaining delegates to hit the magic number of 2026 -- "within reach," indeed.
Thus far, Clinton has netted 154,778 popular votes for the evening. But only 88 percent of precincts have currently reported in Oregon. There is more vote to count there and likely more opportunity for Obama to make up some of that popular vote ground.
Not counting the rogue contests in Florida and Michigan, Clinton is -- as of this writing -- trailing Obama in ABC News' national popular vote count by 424,724 votes. [If you include Florida, where both candidates were on the ballot, Clinton would still be trailing Obama. When you add in Michigan (where Obama removed his name from the ballot), Clinton would be roughly 200,000 votes ahead of Obama in the current count.]
In addition to hoping for some huge intervening event that would upend the current trajectory of the contest, Clinton and her campaign are also hoping to push the magic number needed to secure the nomination a bit further from Obama's reach by arguing for the inclusion of Michigan and Florida in the delegate count.
Should the DNC rules and bylaws committee emerge from its May 31 meeting in Washington, DC with some way to include the Florida and Michigan delegations as part of the nomination process, it is likely that the magic number would become greater than 2,026.
May 21, 2008 in Tancredo, Tom | Permalink | User Comments (186)
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Charlotte,
Yes, Senator Clinton had the good sense to say that she would retaliate if Iran attacked our ally, Israel, with nuclear weapons. That's called deterrence: If you make it clear to an enemy that you are willing to use force if they cross the line, then peace is MORE likely. Senator Obama's blather about having tea with the Iranian mullahs, Raul Castro, Hugo Chavez and other thugs is making conflict MORE likely. Too bad that Hillary won't be the nominee. I would have voted for her. Now I will probably vote for John McCain. He's not perfect but he would be a better president than the very junior senator from Chicago.
Posted by: graniteman | May 21, 2008 10:03:25 AM
How does the Democratic Party select its nominee? The same way it always has i.e. Delegates. This year the magic number 2026. What rules were in place and agreed to by all candidates when this process started?
So whatever they(agreed upon rules) were, those are the rules this year, SO 2026 DELEGATES ARE THE ONLY METRIC. You can't change the rules while the game is being played unless you're a cheat
Posted by: Bendare Dondat | May 21, 2008 10:05:14 AM
Obama is too far left and too inexperienced... McCain is too far right and too old... Hillary is not to far left and not too far right...Hillary is just right and just as right....
Posted by: joll1586 | May 21, 2008 10:09:36 AM
If all those Democrats who claim that Obama is unelectable voted for him, he'd be elected.
Posted by: captain | May 21, 2008 10:13:32 AM
Ellie,
I support Obama, but I will support whomever wins this election fair and square. I am voting for Democratic Ideals. The Party is about helping one another, that everyone gets a shot at the American Dream, not just the Uber Rich or connected like the Republicans. If you fall into those two categories, then vote Repub.
But my family is not rich or connected. We are middle class and are struggling. I don't know what we'll do if things get worse.
I'm voting for Universal Health Care, which I believe is a basic human right.
I'm voting for the rich to pay their fair share and stop living off the middle class and the poor.
I'm voting to have Corporations in this country keep American jobs in AMERICA and not be rewarded for shipping our jobs overseas.
We live in MI, my husband works in the auto industry, I cannot tell you in strong enough terms what NAFTA has done to my state and our jobs.
Ellie, I am not againt HRC, not in the least bit. I am for a quality of life that can be sustained for all Americans.
Posted by: Really? | May 21, 2008 10:14:13 AM
Ellie,
It's not NAFTA that has cut jobs in the Michigan auto industry. It's automation and construction of new auto plants in the southern states of the U.S. Our trade deficit with Canada and Mexico is because we import so much oil and natural gas from them, not cars.
Posted by: graniteman | May 21, 2008 10:17:34 AM
Yavo Lem,
The one thing you don't take into account is that this is the FIRST TIME we have had an African American running as President.
Take all your maps and projections and throw them out the window. This is a new world and it's uncharted.
Your figures are so yestarday and this is 2008. I'm sure the Super Delegates are aware of this too.
Posted by: Really? | May 21, 2008 10:18:32 AM
EXCELLENT POST, Yavo Lem !
Posted by: david from texas | May 21, 2008 10:26:22 AM
I look for the HEAT to be on Obama now by the GOP. They have tapes of Michelle Obama trashing America; they have proof of Obama's shady deals and flip-flopping. I see the GOP saturating the media now with this information. A lot of Obama supporters fail to realize that the media is owned and run by the GOP. The GOP wanted the weaker candidate, Obama to be the nominee. Now, that the DNC has played right into their hands, the war is on. I think the GOP will rip Obama and Michelle to shreads and this will make the SuperD's take notice and recant their endorsement. As was posted earlier, the SuperD's can change their minds at any time, and are only to cast their votes that count at the Convention. I look for surprises at this years Convention.
Posted by: david from texas | May 21, 2008 10:31:37 AM
David,
Yes, the TV networks and newspapers are owned by wealthy people. But many of the media outlets are staffed by journalists and broadcasters with liberal views. The NY Times is a good example of that. And the Wall Street Journal has moved towards the political center since Rupert Murdoch bought the paper. He's conservative but he also wants to seel more copies of the WSJ. Of the major media, only Fox News has looked critically at Senator Obama. That's why the GOP has an opportunity to expose his past and his beliefs during the fall campaign.
Posted by: graniteman | May 21, 2008 10:41:25 AM
If Florida delegates were counted at their full value, Clinton would have won 105 delegates to Obama’s 67 and Edwards’ 13. In Michigan, Clinton would have 73 pledged delegates compared to 55 who were uncommitted and would likely be given to Obama. The nominee would then need 2,209 delegates to win the nomination.
Lets hope the May 31st DNC meeting is fair and unbiased!
Posted by: david from texas | May 21, 2008 11:04:45 AM
Can anyone tell me who is really in charge of the Democrat party? I know it can't be Dean, Pelosi, or Reid. Thanks!
Posted by: lois | May 21, 2008 11:35:53 AM
To Avreage Joe-----
You need to do your homework prior to just spouting off about fraud !!!!! Theare are a total of 3253 "pledged delegates" available----- half of this plus one is 1627. So, I'm really not sure what you are screaming "fraud" about!!!! I guess your just pissed off because your choice of candiate has lost!!!!
Posted by: aj2 | May 21, 2008 11:41:02 AM
Hillary has only herself to blame for losing. And yes she has lost. Spin it how you may. She ran a poor campaign which is an indicator of how she would run this country.
Posted by: d | May 21, 2008 11:41:36 AM
Yavo...You HRC people are so jealous of the crowds Obama gets. It is really sad...we new voters have a voice also...and that is GO OBAMA...
Posted by: newera | May 21, 2008 11:42:04 AM
David for texas,
Are REALLY supposed to believe that a little known (except to my teenagers) rock band could ever gather a crowd of 72,000?? That is more than the Rolling Stones or U2? Why did they all stay then? A screeching leader singer and sunshine can't convince 72,000 to stick around.
Posted by: Really? | May 21, 2008 11:49:15 AM
Add up all the votes from the 2 primaries last night, and who came out on top? You're damm right she did!
Posted by: Mack | May 21, 2008 11:50:34 AM
Mack too little too late! Besides obama has mt and sd wrapped up!
Posted by: Joe | May 21, 2008 11:52:39 AM
Do hear a landslide coming???....Puerto Rico!
Posted by: Mack | May 21, 2008 11:54:27 AM
This is not about race or sex. It's about who America believes is the most qualified person. Hillary has tried to use every card in the deck and has been behind virtually from the first primary. MI and FL can not and should not count. Obama was not even on the ballot in MI. How in anyone’s world could that count? We don’t trust Hillary because she is using the same old spin tactics with numbers that’s been used in Washington forever. Its time for honesty in Washington. She simply is not honest and America knows it. And by the way, I am "white" and make less than 50k a year and without a degree. Obama’s supporters are not all black the vast majority are white, “working class” AND the educated. Obama’s supporters cross ALL lines and THAT is why he’s winning.
Posted by: Dan | May 21, 2008 11:54:53 AM
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