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Top Campaign Official: GOP Hopes to Lose Only Three Senate Seats

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June 12, 2008 3:22 PM

ABC News’ Rick Klein Reports: The Republicans’ Senate campaign chief acknowledged Thursday that his party is almost guaranteed to lose Senate seats this fall, and said if the GOP can hold its losses to only three seats it would be a “terrific night” for the Republican Party.

Sen. John Ensign, the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, told reporters in Washington that of the 10 most competitive Senate races in the country, nine are in states currently held by Republicans.

Given the negative public attitude toward Republicans nation-wide, he said, the GOP is hoping to hold at least 45 seats in the Senate, compared with the current caucus strength of 49.

“The chances of us getting back into the majority, obviously . . . it would be fairly miraculous,” Ensign, R-Nev., said at a lunch sponsored by the Christian Science Monitor.

“I think it would be a great night, especially, [to lose only] three seats -- that would be a terrific night for us, absolutely,” he said. “I don’t want to slip below the four-seat loss -- that’s kind of where we set our absolute worst goal, is to be down to 45 seats.”

Democrats currently control the Senate by the narrowest of margins, with the Senate’s two independents joining 49 Democrats to give the party a bare 51-49 edge.

Under Senate rules, a minority of as few as 41 senators can block legislation via a filibuster. Ensign said Republicans need to have about 45 members to be able to consistently hold a filibuster, since some members can be expected to vote with Democrats on any given measure.

Despite the dire landscape, Ensign said the image of the Senate serving as a “firewall” against a liberal agenda under a potential Obama administration is helping motivate the Republican base of donors and activists.

He said that while Sen. Barack Obama’s impact on down-ballot races is “unknowable at this point,” he expects Obama to boost the prospects of Democratic candidates in some states -- naming Oregon as an example.

“Without Barack Obama, [Sen.] Gordon Smith probably wins [reelection] going away,” Ensign said.

But, he said, Sen. John McCain will help Republicans disproportionately in several other states with Senate seats at stake in 2008, including New Hampshire, Colorado, and New Mexico, Louisiana, and Mississippi.

“Barack Obama’s going to hurt [Democratic] candidates in the Southern states -- it’s just a fact,” he said. “The country is still center, center-right. Certainly, John McCain is closer to the ideology of the country than Barack Obama is.”

“The Democrat nominee is going to excite the Republican base,” Ensign added. “He’ll scare the Republican base because of his policies . . . and some of his lack of judgment.”

Without citing a particular order, Ensign said he expected the closest Senate races to take place in Maine, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Alaska, Oregon, Colorado, Louisiana, New Mexico, North Carolina, and Virginia. Only in Louisiana, where Sen. Mary Landrieu is running for re-election, is the seat currently occupied by a Democrat.

June 12, 2008 in Thompson, Fred | Permalink | User Comments (13)

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I don't know... he hasn't hurt the Democrats in elections so far!

Posted by: matt w. | Jun 12, 2008 3:52:24 PM

Just use Obama's name and the Republicans will win in a landslide except in the black states where even OJ Simpson would win

Posted by: big hank | Jun 12, 2008 3:57:26 PM

The Republicans are screwed and they know it. Obama's gonna have Democrat majorities in the house and senate. We've had eight years of far-right control, and now, they're gonna go for another eight with far-left. Either way, we get screwed over. Get used to more taxes and less services. Oh and those expensive wars. There is only one party now, the power party. And we get our rights and our wealth taken from us every year. The parties are nothing but a hologram, the policies stay the same.

Posted by: patriot | Jun 12, 2008 4:02:37 PM

By the time November rolls around the
Democrats will have been in control
of Congress for the last 2 years!
Where are the results?
The price of gas has to gone over $4
a gallon since their rise to power!
I guess that's their major accomplishment!

Posted by: reaganfan | Jun 12, 2008 4:13:53 PM

They think Virgiia will be close? Wow, delusion has set in. Or is it dementia?

Posted by: CJ | Jun 12, 2008 4:48:50 PM

JOHM McCAIN – “WAR WISDOM THAT ONLY COMES WITH AGE”

"There’s not a history of clashes that are violent between Sunnis and Shiahs. So I think they can probably get along." [MSNBC, 4/23/03]


" I believe that the success will be fairly easy." [CNN, 9/24/02]


"We’re not going to get into house-to-house fighting in Baghdad. " [CNN, 9/29/02]

"But the point is that, one, we will win this conflict. We will win it easily." [MSNBC, 1/22/03]

"But I believe that the Iraqi people will greet us as liberators." [NBC, 3/20/03]

"It’s clear that the end is very much in sight." [ABC, 4/9/03]

"This is a mission accomplished.." [This Week, ABC, 12/14/03]

"I’m confident we’re on the right course." [ABC News, 3/7/04]

Can you give an estimate when can our troops come home?(Matt Lauer) “No, but that's not too important.” [ABC 6/11/08]

Posted by: In his own words | Jun 12, 2008 5:23:50 PM

The GOP is losing ground in VA.

Northern VA (the main population center), VA Beach, Richmond, and my town of Charlottesville are going Democratic.

We still have the Southern Baptist bible thumpers and racist rednecks who will vote Republican like they're on auto pilot. But they will be defeated.

Posted by: Dave in VA | Jun 12, 2008 5:28:17 PM

Call it the Embarrass Rick Davis Act of 2008.

Rick Davis, of course, is John McCain's campaign manager, and has taken a hit for doing business with companies with ties to Iran. Now Barack Obama has signed on as a co-sponsor of a bill to subject American lobbyists like Davis to tighter disclosure requirements if they work on behalf of foreign entities.

During a conference call with reporters, Sen. Chuck Schumer insisted the bill wasn't primarily influenced by Davis, but instead by some lobbying activities by the Iraqi government that were discovered in recent weeks. However, he said, Davis would be affected by the bill.

Schumer invited McCain to sign on as a co-sponsor of the bill -- a pretty aggressive throwing down of the gauntlet, since it puts McCain in the tough spot of either signing on, and making life difficult for all the lobbyists on his campaign, or refusing, and ceding the reformer high ground to Obama.

No comment yet from the McCain camp.

Posted by: bhrandon | Jun 12, 2008 5:30:05 PM

"The price of gas has to gone over $4
a gallon since their rise to power!"

That's called the "Nancy Pelosi the San Francisco Liberal" Premium. Come November she will know her hatred of Hillary Rodham Clinton has cost Democrats the White House. Going to India to kiss the Dalai Lama was so much more important to her than any business having to do with lending a hand to the American taxpayer. Tax and spend! Obama has learned well from her.

Posted by: matt2 | Jun 12, 2008 6:36:58 PM

Republicans use racist fear of the black man while they continue to screw over whites and everyone else as they laugh all the way to the bank.

Yep, republicans are counting on whites to ignore 7 years of getting screwed without vaseline because they think fear of blacks will trump any problems they have with bush/cheney and mccain.

Posted by: geevil | Jun 13, 2008 12:54:04 AM


Begich leading Sen. Stevens by5% or
so in Alaska. We will be enjoying
a floood of Dem$ to take this seat.

I will vote for Stevens, of course,
but Begich is the very popular
Anchorage Mayor.

Posted by: toes | Jun 13, 2008 6:28:08 PM

Republicans have been screwing average americans for decades, but their goose is cooked this election. You only need look at the recent congressional elections in Illinois, Louisiana
and Mississippi for proof. All seats were held by republicans in republican strongholds for as many as 32 plus years. Democrats won every seat. People are wise to them and their ruinous unamaerican ways.


Posted by: GOP are thieves | Jun 15, 2008 3:09:56 AM

Wait! All the liberals that think they can spend more than you make and take care of every little thing except things that matter. This spending affects all of us so tremendously. HIGH TAXES, INFLATION! Keep drinking the KOOL-AID! My theory is you drink it first! We need to limit terms in our House and Senate so that it isn't a lifetime job. We THE PEOPLE run this country not these idiots who are supposed to be representing us. Obama wants to be dictator! not President! So all you Kool-Aid drinkers keep drinking. DEMOCRATS LOVE TO SPEND OUR MONEY FRIVOLOUSLY AND THEY LIE SO BAD IT MAKES ME SICK. LOOK AT DODD, PELOSI, AND REID. BOWING TO THE SAUDI KING WHAT IS UP WITH THAT?!?!?! JUST SICKENING!

Posted by: Proud American | Apr 8, 2009 7:09:07 PM

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