McCain's VP Shortlist Shortcomings

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McCain's VP Shortlist Shortcomings

July 29, 2008 11:41 PM

ABC News' Jan Crawford Greenburg and Howard L. Rosenberg report: The frenzied speculation last week that a McCain pick was "imminent" has proven to be nothing more than that. Sources say McCain has not made up his mind and is unlikely to announce his selection until later next month -- with the caveat that the independent McCain, who will make this decision on his own, could, of course, always make up his mind and announce next week.

The problem for McCain, as he weighs the pros and cons of his contenders, is not unlike the one Obama is facing with the Democratic prospects: There's no clear pick.

McCain can go in two very different directions with his choice, and he's not decided which path to take, sources close to McCain tell ABC News.

One route is to tap a conservative who's generally popular with the base. The other is a less-traveled path: an out-of-the box moderate/conservative who could also have cross-over appeal with all those blue-collar Democrats who voted for Hillary Clinton.

In deciding his course, McCain is confronting the reality that there's no ideal "conservative" candidate for VP. Each candidate on his short list--his former opponent, Mitt Romney, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, and former Ohio Rep. Rob Portman--has drawbacks.

Let's start with Romney. In recent months, he clearly has been the most effective spokesman for the Republican Party--and the most effective Obama critic. He's capable of raising big bucks for McCain and he's strong on economic issues.

But Romney brings to the ticket what McCain has spent an entire career avoiding: political expediency. McCain's stock-in-trade has been straight talk and independence, to the point that he's alienated some of his colleagues over the years in the Senate. Romney has not only changed his positions on specific issues--he's pretty quickly changed his entire persona, from a moderate conservative governor to a far-right presidential contender. He may bring in dollars, but he would rob McCain of one of his most enduring characteristics.

Now Romney, the thinking goes, can deliver Michigan (and also be a boost in western states, like Nevada). Michigan is obviously an important state in this closely divided race. But there's little evidence Romney would set the world on fire beyond that--as the polls (the real ones, that people entered in the primaries) made clear.

Pawlenty and Portman are lesser known, youthful conservatives who would be palatable to the base—but not add a whole lot of spark to the ticket.

Pawlenty has an established relationship with McCain and has been a visible surrogate for him on the political talk shows. He's spoken powerfully about changing the Republican Party from the Country Club to Sam's Club--which, if he could do, would help in those key states like Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania. But nothing suggests at this point that Pawlenty could actually deliver those states, so what does he add? And can you really say, “President Pawlenty?”

Same goes for Portman: What does he add to the ticket? He's popular in Ohio's 2nd District, including Cincinnati, where he handily won his congressional seat six times and hauled in $2 million for McCain and the GOP at a fundraiser last month. But could he deliver the wider state? That's a big question. Although he served as U.S. trade representative, he also carries the baggage of having the unfortunate title of "former White House Budget Director" under President Bush--which can only give ammunition to the Democratic call of "McSame."
As for compatibility, for a guy like John McCain who values personal relationships, Portman is not someone the candidate is close with.

Which brings us to two men McCain actually could envision governing with: Tom Ridge and Joe Lieberman.
The drawbacks from the conventional conservatives may make the moderate Republican/Independent type--Ridge or Lieberman--more appealing, especially since both of those prospects have long relationships with McCain.

McCain likes and respects both men—and both are strong on the issue he cares most deeply about: the threat of Islamo-fascism.

What's more, in a season when the buzzword is "change," selecting either Ridge or Lieberman would accomplish that in a big way with the Republican Party. That's significant, especially when so many moderate voters on the Right and Left are up for grabs.

Ridge, the former Pennsylvania governor, is a particularly interesting choice, because he could deliver his home state—a must-win for John McCain. Ridge, the first head of Homeland Security, also could help—possibly decisively--in winning the two other states that are critical in this election, Michigan and Pennsylvania. McCain must carry two of those three to win the White House.

Lieberman, the Independent Democrat, could help deliver Florida--though that state is projected for McCain already (for now, anyway). Yes, Lieberman was on the Democratic ticket in 2000, but he's now seen as someone like McCain has been--willing to stand alone, at odds with his party, on issues he believes in. And despite wearing the "D" label, Lieberman's support of Israel is popular with conservative Evangelicals.

But both Ridge and McCain have short-list shortcomings--namely that both are pro-choice and would infuriate the conservative base, which only now is starting to warm to the maverick McCain. That could cause a world of problems at the Republican convention--especially if Independent Democrat Lieberman were the pick. It also could stem the tide of dollars, which is something McCain can ill afford to do.

Which leaves open the Third Way: Texas Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison or Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. But they have their drawbacks, too.

July 29, 2008 in Hunter, Duncan, Palin, Sarah, Romney, Mitt, Thompson, Fred | Permalink | User Comments (86)

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McCain is losing anyways. He has no judgment to be commander in chief. He supported the worse war in American history, supported Bush` failed economic and foreign policy 95% of the time, he flip flops and is offering the same failed policy.

Obama has shown superior judgment on all of these issues. Very proactive while McCain still has cold-war mentality.

Where judgment and experience meet, Good judgment always reigns supreme.

Obama 08

Posted by: Ame | Jul 30, 2008 12:03:27 AM

Can you imagine? We are borrowing money from communist China to fight a war that McCain supports and wants to fight for 100 years.

Very poor judgment. He is losing anyways.

Posted by: alvin | Jul 30, 2008 12:06:05 AM

It's unbelievable that Lieberman's name keeps coming up. It's crazy with a capital "K".

My guess is that McCain is waiting for Obama to pick. Time for McCain to start 'leading' and just pick someone already; who cares what Obama does.

Posted by: 1percenter | Jul 30, 2008 12:14:23 AM

Governor Palin's biggest drawback being that she is currently under investigation by the Alaska State Legislature for possible misuse of her office in the firing of the popular Commissioner of Public Safety (a man who would not bow to the pressure she, her family, and some of her key staff applied to have him fire her ex-brother in law - a State Trooper - because of an an ugly custody battle he's in with her younger sister).

So, if McCain wants to introduce to the nation a woman who is embroiled in discussions about the legalities of shooting a moose, tazering a child, and other bizarre and tawdry things, then he knows who to tap to be one heartbeat away from the most powerful position in the world.

Or, he can wait, like the rest of us, to see what the Independant Investigator turns up in his/her exploration of executive branch misuse of power. It's expected the Investigator will be appointed within the week and will presumably take a couple months to conduct the probe. A joint Alaska State Legislative Council just approved $100,000 yesterday to finance the investigation into Governor Palin's possible misuse of power.

This is the Third Way? Is there a Fourth Way?

Posted by: Sue Williams | Jul 30, 2008 1:07:56 AM

Palin has NO drawbacks!

Q&A

1. Which McCain Veep pick is SIMULTANEOUSLY the safest AND boldest?

ANSWER: Sarah Palin

2. How can McCain SIMULTANEOUSLY attract both Hillary AND Bob Barr voters?

ANSWER: Sarah Palin

* * *

And there’s this from the Conservative Voice:

“Desperately seeking Sarah
July 26, 2008
By Stephan Andrew Brodhead

Desperately seeking Sarah
Americans need a little Palin Power

Sarah Palin the current Governor of Alaska is John McCain’s ultimate choice for VP. I do believe a woman is next in line for the presidency. All Conservatives like her. She is popular in Alaska. Hillary supporters would relish her. She would solidify a 12 or possibly 16 year Republican executive.

John McCain’s boring campaign is wearing thin. I need a little Palin Power to get me interested again. They would say ‘but she is only a half term Governor!’ And your point is?”

Posted by: Ted | Jul 30, 2008 2:04:54 AM

The mainstream media and the Democrats downplay Palin!

Why?

Are they afraid of her? Yes

Posted by: Ted | Jul 30, 2008 2:06:59 AM

Obama's credentials:
Graduated from law school, became a street organizer. Won a seat in the Illinois senate and voted 'present' on over 100 bills (nice judgement...uh...no comment). Then lost a bid to serve in the house, then became the junior US senator from the State of Illinois in the United States Senate.
2 years later, after passing 1 bill, he said "Hey, maybe I should be president."
It's easy to have good judgement when you never actually vote on anything

Posted by: Jason | Jul 30, 2008 2:08:43 AM

I am so tired of this "judgement vs experience" argument. We know that McCain has the experience, but who says that Obama has the judgement? Who made up this silly rule? Obama has no judgement whatsoever, this is a man who sat for 20 years clueless in a racist church, and then lies about it later. And stop saying that Obama had the judgement against the Iraq war; he was not in a position to vote for it at the time, he did not have the confidential intelligence, and he already said that had he had the information, he is not sure how he would have voted.

Obama...no experience, no judgement, no way.

Posted by: doublestandard | Jul 30, 2008 2:49:22 AM

Palin is under investigation by an Independant Investigator who was voted on - unanimously - by the Alaska State Legislative Council (a group of both Republicans and Democrats) to investigate possible misuse of her executive branch power. The last time the Legislative Branch in Alaska voted for a governor to come under the probe of an Independant Investigator was in the early 1980's. This is Sarah's Scandal; so, even though she has not been found guilty of anything - clearly enough evidence exists for elected members of both parties in Alaska to call for a close look into possible misuse of power. McCain won't get close to this. He won't want to choose a running mate with such a potential mess on her hands.

Posted by: Sue Williams | Jul 30, 2008 3:40:05 AM

Her name is Kay Bailey HUTCHISON (no "n"). Jeez, she's a senator (not one I like at all), but the media misspell her name about half the time.

Posted by: EricW | Jul 30, 2008 3:49:29 AM

But does McCain really want an Alaskan when another Alaska Republican is in so much trouble? I think Palin is an interesting choice, but not sooo likely about now.

I think what this article shows is that the veep pick is far more important for McCain than for Obama. Partly because Obama is winning, but I think also because the GOP has not come together yet, and needs something to either help unify the party, or make the split sdo obvious that the only way McCain can get the right to the polls is to say 'Well look at the other option' and just keep his fingers crossed. (Which might actually be the best option for him, especially if it means picking up some moderate votes!)

I think it also points maybe to some disquiet about McCain's performance so far. I think the Democratic Party are more or less happy to let Obama carry the party. I think the GOP is more at odds with its candidate and doesn't yet feel confident about him.

Posted by: markymark | Jul 30, 2008 6:04:39 AM

Since when has Pennsylvania ever been a "must-win" for a Republican? And who actually believes Romney can pull Michigan (the last three people with that last name to run for state-wide office all lost, big).

Obama still can't seal the deal, can't get over 50% support, and despite his European victory lap remains a foreign policy novice (see: the surge). As long as McCain doesn't choose Romney, he'll end up taking it (closely) in November.

Posted by: Bradley | Jul 30, 2008 6:23:09 AM

Sarah Palin is a clear pick. She'd clean anyone's clock on energy issues, put gas price solutions directly on the table, is pro-life, has a son in Iraq (McCain has two sons there), and has an 80% approval rating for fixing every major problem in Alaska in the last 3 years. Plus it doesn't hurt she is an amazing impromptu speaker.

Posted by: Willie | Jul 30, 2008 8:06:45 AM

BLOOMBERG! BLOOMBERG! BLOOMBERG

Posted by: Charlie | Jul 30, 2008 8:40:52 AM

I don't know anything about the "scandal" in question, but from a distance, it smells like the kind of thing political opponents - particularly the corrupt ones Palin has made a career of unseating - might put out to try and smear someone.

Everything I see about Palin looks good to me. And I actually think she would be a good contrast to the embarassment with Stevens, and more importantly, a great complement to McCain's reformer message.

Posted by: Ned | Jul 30, 2008 8:58:18 AM

what ever happened to charlie crist- governor of florida? I think he would be the best choice, he is the candidate i fear most as a democrat.

Posted by: shane | Jul 30, 2008 9:03:10 AM

Anybody but Romney. Romney will say anything to be president and now vice-president. As the article stated, "But Romney brings to the ticket what McCain has spent an entire career avoiding: political expediency. McCain's stock-in-trade has been straight talk and independence... Romney has not only changed his positions on specific issues--he's pretty quickly changed his entire persona, from a moderate conservative governor to a far-right presidential contender. He may bring in dollars, but he would rob McCain of one of his most enduring characteristics."

Posted by: Texasconserv | Jul 30, 2008 9:16:21 AM

Posted by: Texasconserv | Jul 30, 2008 9:16:22 AM

Want to shake things up, get energized, get things going and get plenty of press. Go Jindal!

Unfortunately Jindal has said no, and McCain will play it safe, " not do damage to the ticket" is his driving criteria.

This could be one of the more important campaign choices McCain makes. We'll see. Energy or boredom?

Posted by: anotherview | Jul 30, 2008 9:19:14 AM

For all the reasons Tapper has written above, McCain will end up with Condi Rice. You heard it here first, last, and always. She's simply his best choice.

Posted by: section9 | Jul 30, 2008 9:20:27 AM

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