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Stephanopoulos: Independent Voters Hold White House Key

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September 30, 2008 7:22 PM

ABC News’ George Stephanopoulos reports: Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama holds a 50-46 percent lead over Republican presidential candidate John McCain among likely voters, according to the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll.

However independent and undecided voters, who could make all the difference in a tight election, are shifting back and forth between Obama and McCain.

After the Republican convention, McCain was up by about 10 points among independent likely voters, according to an ABC/Post poll released earlier this month.

Then, last week Obama has a big swing and was up by 14 percentage points, but in our latest poll, McCain has pulled ahead by three percentage points.

We’ve seen similar dramatic moves among white women, another group whose preferences are changing with each new poll.

After the Republican convention, McCain has a double-digit lead among white women, with many pundits crediting his new vice presidential pick Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin for the shift in voter preferences. Last week Obama pulled ahead by two percentage points with white women, but the ABC/Post poll released today finds McCain regaining  sizeable 11 percentage point lead over Obama with this group.

One in five voters say they could still change their mind in this election. It is those undecided voters and white women voters who will hold the key to who wins the White House in five weeks.

The poll also found that President Bush is far and away the biggest drag on McCain right now.
He has a new disapproval rating of 70 percent, which is a record for all presidents going back to the beginning of public opinion polling in 1938. The problem for McCain is that a majority of Americans – 53 percent – believe he would take the country in the same direction as Bush.

When it comes to the all-important Commander-in-Chief test, a majority of Americans still do not believe Obama would be a good Commander-in-Chief.  The poll found McCain leading Obama on who would make a good Commander-in-Chief of the military, with 73 percent of Americans saying McCain would do a good job, while just 46 percent said Obama would make a good Commander-in-Chief.

But for the first time, the poll found a majority of Americans – 52 percent – who say Obama has the experience to serve effectively as president.

If Obama keeps that number above 50 percent, it will be his race to lose.

September 30, 2008 in McCain, John, Obama, Barack, Vote 2008: Democrats, Vote 2008: Republicans | Permalink | User Comments (599)

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The poll numbers, and whole "horserace" mentality of the election coverage is misleading. In terms of the electoral college, Obama has a commanding lead. I'm not saying the election is sewn up, in Obama's favor, but I'm a little tired of the storyline that "independents are shifting back and forth" "it's anybody's race" etc.
Honest coverage, and coverage that would be helpful to the voting public, would say that McCain is losing in traditionally red states, is falling behind in battleground states, and has been on a downward slide ever since people finally started catching on that Palin is not the salvation of the Republican party that people wanted her to be. Enough with the "horserace" mentality!

Posted by: jon in maryland | Sep 30, 2008 7:48:13 PM

Well this Independent voter from Va.is supporting Obama Biden.

Posted by: CW | Sep 30, 2008 7:49:01 PM

My wife and I are both in the military. She is serving her 26th year and Im on my 29th. One year to go for me. We have always voted fot the Republican ticket in the past even though we are Independent. After keeping up with this campaine and researching everything we could, we will be supporting Obama. McCain served his country with honor, but that in itself doesnt mean he will be a good President. What really sent us over the edge was the pick of Palin. The thought that she could be our Commander in Chief one day is scarey. Both Kennedy and Reagan were great at deplomacy and the Berlin Wall came down and we prevented a war with the Soviets during the Cuban missle crisis due to having brains in the White House that believed in deplomacy first.At one point Kennedy's four Generals and Chief of Staff were pressuring Kennedy to attack. Kennedy didnt fall to the pressure and used is brains and deplomacy to possibly stop a war and it worked. Does anyone acually believe, if McCain and Palin had been in office that they would have gone against their Generals and used deplomacy. I think not. If something were to happen to McCain, Palin would be in charge of the most powerful military in the world. I know about the Alaska National Guard but I also know she as never given them one single command. My Wife and I are sure in our beliefs that if McCain and Palin are elected, at the least, we would just continue with Bush policies or even worse. Obama believes not only in deplomacy first, before conflict, and has the brains to make it work. He will keep our military strong and country safe and will help fix the the worlds view of us. Remember the days when the international community respected and looked up to us. Please support the troops and God Bless America.

Posted by: CW | Sep 30, 2008 7:56:26 PM

Dumb people voted for Bush, dumber people will vote for Obama/Biden

Posted by: Mack | Sep 30, 2008 7:58:42 PM

Good thing all the independents are voting for Obama!!!

Posted by: Ed from MA | Sep 30, 2008 7:59:04 PM

Independent Voters:

Please read about Hussein Obama before you decide. Read

http://www. obamaunveiled. com

Posted by: Hussein_Islam_Obama | Sep 30, 2008 8:04:52 PM

They are not polling the students. Having seen Palin's performance on CBS interview with Couric, I am scared to think that an idiot could become a president in case McCain passes on. Another Evita?

Posted by: silkwool | Sep 30, 2008 8:05:30 PM

OBAMA, is a new way of doing new things. Bush/McCain is the old corrupt way.

McCain...how is the 1st wife you left high and dry...with a payments from Botox Barbie

Posted by: nonyabizness | Sep 30, 2008 8:05:33 PM

But I also know my opinion doesn't matter because we also have a Senator Barney Frank who is .. a lisp talking dork who CAUSED all of this mess with his pressure to give out loans to low income people who obviously couldn't handle the payments! Now - go crawl into your hole ..

Posted by: Ed from MA. | Sep 30, 2008 8:06:24 PM

what a boring day---perhaps when palin starts cackling like a chicken on thursday we will have some entertainment------and george stop being so boring---even mcbush is getting predictable.

Posted by: rodney | Sep 30, 2008 8:06:30 PM

Bush finally sets a record that he deserves do richly.

Posted by: ronnierayjenkins | Sep 30, 2008 8:06:52 PM

Bush finally sets a record that he deserves do richly.

Posted by: ronnierayjenkins | Sep 30, 2008 8:06:54 PM

Obama, ACORN, and Fannie Mae: What exactly does a "community organizer" do? Barack Obama's rise has left many Americans asking themselves that question. Here's a big part of the answer: Community organizers intimidate banks into making high-risk loans to customers with poor credit (Source: Stanley Kurtz, The National Review).

What if Barack Obama’s most important radical connection has been hiding in plain sight all along? Obama has had an intimate and long-term association with the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now (ACORN), the largest radical group in America. If I told you Obama had close ties with MoveOn.org or Code Pink, you’d know what I was talking about. ACORN is at least as radical as these better-known groups, arguably more so. Yet because ACORN works locally, in carefully selected urban areas, its national profile is lower. ACORN likes it that way. And so, I’d wager, does Barack Obama.

In the name of fairness to minorities, community organizers occupy private offices, chant inside bank lobbies, and confront executives at their homes - and thereby force financial institutions to direct hundreds of millions of dollars in mortgages to low-credit customers.

In other words, community organizers help to undermine the US economy by pushing the banking system into a sinkhole of bad loans. And Obama has spent years training and funding the organizers who do it. Read the shocking details...

Read the $700 Billion Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 bill currently in Congress.

Find out why Democrats led by Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid are impeding Republican efforts to investigate Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. Even Bill Clinton blames the democrats for obstructing efforts to investigate these corrupt institutions and their executives who stole tens of millions of taxpayer dollars.

In 2005, Sen. McCain co-sponsored a bill to tighten control of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. The bill was opposed primarily by House Democrats led by Rep. Frank Barney who wanted little control or oversight of these financial giants. Read the Federal Housing Enterprise Regulatory Reform Act of 2005 that was co-sponsored by Sen. McCain and rejected by House Democrats.

http://www. obamaunveiled. com

Posted by: Hussein_Islam_Obama | Sep 30, 2008 8:07:08 PM

I make 18K a year part-time .. can I get a home loan for 350K please?? Sheesh! Wake up people ..

Posted by: Marcus | Sep 30, 2008 8:07:27 PM

"OBAMA, is a new way of doing new things. Bush/McCain is the old corrupt way."

New way of doing things? Guess you having been paying attention. Chicago politicians are some of the most corrupt in the nation.

Posted by: Mack | Sep 30, 2008 8:07:39 PM

I voted for Sen. Clinton in the primary, and she's right when she says that she needs a president who will pass her version of Universal Health Care.

That person is Sen. Obama.

Posted by: Rodham Democrat | Sep 30, 2008 8:08:08 PM

Mack you will be hard pressed to find any body dumber than john mccain. Finished 894 out of 899 in the naval academy.

I believe mccain when he says he knows nothing about the economy. He is the in the bush mold favors emotion over thinking.

Posted by: sand | Sep 30, 2008 8:08:25 PM

Right on CW. My husband was a Navy Flight instructor during Nam. He too honors McCain's service. But he says pilots are graded on "headwork" - McCain's selection of Sarah Palin was seriously bad headwork. He and I are voting Obama/Biden.

Posted by: Idahogirl | Sep 30, 2008 8:08:41 PM

I hope the American people don't vote for McCain and vote for Obama because he is a better man. McCain is a evil, rotten, twisted human being who is part of the good old boy establishment. He is a part of the money club that has destroyed our nation because of shear relentless decadence. We don't need change. What we need is a rediscovery of what it is to be a proud USONIAN. The religious right and pinko left need to leave the US and find UTOPIA somewhere else. The USA is for USONIANS and not religious zealots or left wing do gooders. The USA is for people who are willing to respect everyone including the religious zealots and left wing do gooders. The problem is the right and left have no idea who they are. So I will tell who you are. You are a USONIAN a person from the United States of America. Love it or Leave it.

Posted by: cony 647 | Sep 30, 2008 8:08:52 PM

I support loans to ALL low income people to give them the American dream .. a home they will default on because they don't make enough to rent let alone purchase!

Posted by: Barney Frankly Stupid | Sep 30, 2008 8:09:04 PM

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