Stephanopoulos: Independent Voters Hold White House Key

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Stephanopoulos: Independent Voters Hold White House Key

September 30, 2008 7:22 PM

ABC News’ George Stephanopoulos reports: Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama holds a 50-46 percent lead over Republican presidential candidate John McCain among likely voters, according to the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll.

However independent and undecided voters, who could make all the difference in a tight election, are shifting back and forth between Obama and McCain.

After the Republican convention, McCain was up by about 10 points among independent likely voters, according to an ABC/Post poll released earlier this month.

Then, last week Obama has a big swing and was up by 14 percentage points, but in our latest poll, McCain has pulled ahead by three percentage points.

We’ve seen similar dramatic moves among white women, another group whose preferences are changing with each new poll.

After the Republican convention, McCain has a double-digit lead among white women, with many pundits crediting his new vice presidential pick Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin for the shift in voter preferences. Last week Obama pulled ahead by two percentage points with white women, but the ABC/Post poll released today finds McCain regaining sizeable 11 percentage point lead over Obama with this group.

One in five voters say they could still change their mind in this election. It is those undecided voters and white women voters who will hold the key to who wins the White House in five weeks.

The poll also found that President Bush is far and away the biggest drag on McCain right now.
He has a new disapproval rating of 70 percent, which is a record for all presidents going back to the beginning of public opinion polling in 1938. The problem for McCain is that a majority of Americans – 53 percent – believe he would take the country in the same direction as Bush.

When it comes to the all-important Commander-in-Chief test, a majority of Americans still do not believe Obama would be a good Commander-in-Chief. The poll found McCain leading Obama on who would make a good Commander-in-Chief of the military, with 73 percent of Americans saying McCain would do a good job, while just 46 percent said Obama would make a good Commander-in-Chief.

But for the first time, the poll found a majority of Americans – 52 percent – who say Obama has the experience to serve effectively as president.

If Obama keeps that number above 50 percent, it will be his race to lose.

September 30, 2008 in McCain, John, Obama, Barack, Vote 2008: Democrats, Vote 2008: Republicans | Permalink | User Comments (599)

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I'm Frustrated with McCain with this pick of his. I wish he would have picked "Leslie Sanchez" instead. Palin is cute and all but she sounds so ignorant of major issues and it becoming quite disturbing and she sounds like a student craming for an exam. Just venting and frustrated....

Posted by: Palinmademe | Sep 30, 2008 8:09:14 PM

CW...I could not have said it better myself....
Thank you for serving.....

Obama/Biden

Posted by: jen | Sep 30, 2008 8:09:39 PM

CW - While I don't share your view points on who to vote for, I do want to sincerely thank both you and your wife for your service to this country. You deserve the utmost respect from every person in this country for your sacrifices. Thank you so much. God Bless you Both.

Posted by: R | Sep 30, 2008 8:09:49 PM

CW, there is no one dumber than someone that voted for Bush

Posted by: mudge007 | Sep 30, 2008 8:10:01 PM

I have great confidence, that the majority of American (voters) citizens will realize McCain would be another four years of bad decision making, just like George W. Bush, and let the younger generation take the reins now, so we can have real CHANGE in our government, with electing Barack Obama and Joe Biden to lead us out of this mess we're all in.

Posted by: jms55 | Sep 30, 2008 8:10:16 PM

"I make 18K a year part-time .. can I get a home loan for 350K please??'

You can have that and more if you vote for Barry! All of your wildest dreams will come true!

Posted by: Mack | Sep 30, 2008 8:10:21 PM

CW, there is no one dumber than someone that voted for Bush

Posted by: mudge007 | Sep 30, 2008 8:10:26 PM

Reparations too Mack? Please??

Posted by: Marcus | Sep 30, 2008 8:11:08 PM

hey ed
do you think we would be in this mess if people saved a little for what they want----or just continue to use credit cards and pay double---we have become a country of idiots----25 thousand income,buy a 300 thousand dollar home.
now we are to pay these mortgages----i say no put them back in the trailer park--and make them earn their way.

Posted by: rodney | Sep 30, 2008 8:11:11 PM

CW, sorry, that was meant for Mack

Posted by: mudge007 | Sep 30, 2008 8:11:23 PM

Who are these "independent voters?" sound like a pack of w hores to me.

Posted by: cusco | Sep 30, 2008 8:12:09 PM

McCain is so all over the board with how he handles things. I left my house Mon. morning and McCain and Romney were on television stations giving credit to the passage of the BailOut Bill to McCain. I come home at 3pm and the bill did not even pass. McCain oversteps and winds up crippling himself by trying to one up Obama. Not to mention his pick of a VP. Now wonder the American public is not feeling confident in him.

Posted by: Patty Atlanta | Sep 30, 2008 8:12:16 PM

I agree Rodney - blame Congress all you want .. but A LOT of people need a mirror!!

Posted by: Marcus | Sep 30, 2008 8:12:19 PM

mack
you are overlooking the last 8 years that got us in this mess/

Posted by: rodney | Sep 30, 2008 8:12:35 PM

"and let the younger generation take the reins now, so we can have real CHANGE in our government, with electing Barack Obama and Joe Biden"

Yeah, and Joe Biden too! That's the real change that we've always hoped for!

Posted by: Mack | Sep 30, 2008 8:12:44 PM

I'm an independent (ex-democrat) who is learning to dispise the democrat's and republican's. I may vote straight ticket against the party that get's the largest "yea" vote for the bailout crapola! I certainly won't let them get away with it without a cost...with my vote.

Posted by: kennedy | Sep 30, 2008 8:14:10 PM

agree Palin not fit to be commander in chief, not even fit to be the ceo of a fortune 500 company

Posted by: carlosgeneric233 | Sep 30, 2008 8:14:17 PM

McCain is capable but Palin is a disaster. Only a highly partisan individual could have thought anything positive of the interviews she's had with ABC and CBS. She was clearly lost. I don't say this with rancor. I don't feel comfortable with anyone coming off that badly. But this is a leadership position of our great nation and we don't have that kind of margin for error. Certainly partisan Republicans and those with less positive biases will not allow that Obama is a brilliant man. But most neutral observers would have to credit him with that. He wasn't a legacy admit like McCain who performed poorly in college but a bright individual who had to earn an Ivy League education and then did very well there.

Posted by: richard | Sep 30, 2008 8:14:50 PM

Most of the rest of the world is totally baffled that the race is so close.

The values McCain represents and his political lineage should ensure Obama would win in a landslide. But no. Half of Americans seriously believe the GOP is on their side.

Very strange people.

Posted by: gwhizz | Sep 30, 2008 8:15:00 PM

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