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The Note: Polls Even, Obama Seeks Sharper Message

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September 09, 2008 8:34 AM

ABC News' Rick Klein reports in Tuesday's Note: He’s danced over caucuses and superdelegates, skated past two dozen debates and 19 months on the trail, rolled through Jeremiah Wright and Hillary Clinton -- and a hockey mom from Alaska could be his undoing?

Eight weeks out -- his lead in the polls erased (for now), the money not quite flowing the way he anticipated, women voters impressed by the newest newcomer -- the weight of the race falls on Sen. Barack Obama’s shoulders.

(And your real-world alert: President Bush announces Tuesday morning that he’s pulling out 8,000 US troops out of Iraq by February.) 

Yes, this period of the race has been all about Gov. Sarah Palin -- but how long it lasts is going to be up to Obama. Smart political types are looking for a sharper message -- one that reminds voters of the big stakes in the race, not the little items on a running mate’s resume.

(Who usually wins when a presidential candidate takes on a vice-presidential one? How does Obama take on an Obama-like phenomenon? What does it say about Obama’s support that it was soft enough to flee this quickly? What, in the end, do women want?)

Read the rest of The Note -- and get all the latest on the 2008 election, Congress, the White House and the wide world of politics every day -- from Rick Klein by bookmarking this link.

All that work, gone? The new ABC News/Washington Post poll pegs it at McCain 49, Obama 47 among likely voters -- inside the margin of error, but with a name we’re not used to seeing in the lead.

Inside the numbers, some shockers: “White women have moved from 50-42 percent in Obama’s favor before the conventions to 53-41 percent for McCain now, a 20-point shift that’s one of the single biggest post-convention changes in voter preferences. The other, also to McCain’s advantage, is in the battleground Midwest, where he’s moved from a 19-point deficit to a 7-point edge,” per ABC Polling Directory Gary Langer.

“It really is stunning,” ABC’s George Stephanopoulos said on “Good Morning America” Tuesday. “We haven’t seen a bigger shift among a single group in quite a long time. . . . There’s no question that these voters have a very favorable opinion of Sarah Palin. They like what they saw, they like what they heard.”

As Obama talks education Tuesday -- arguing anew that he’s the change agent, not McCain-Palin -- Obama’s 32-point edge on “change” is now down to 12 points. 

Another key gap is closing: “For the first time since the end of the primaries, a majority of voters are enthusiastic about McCain's candidacy, and the percentage calling themselves ‘very enthusiastic’ has nearly doubled from late August. That percentage is drastically higher now among conservative Republicans and white evangelical Protestants,” Jon Cohen and Dan Balz write in The Washington Post. “The question both campaigns are weighing is whether McCain, by hitting hard on the themes of reform and change that have been at the heart of Obama's message, has reshaped voters' perceptions of the two tickets.”

Continue reading today's Note by clicking HERE.

ABC News' Hope Ditto contributed to this report.

September 9, 2008 in Biden, Joe, Bush, George W., Clinton, Hillary, McCain, John, Obama, Barack, Palin, Sarah, Vote 2008: Democrats, Vote 2008: Republicans, Washington | Permalink | User Comments (225)

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Amazing -

“It really is stunning,” ABC’s George Stephanopoulos said on “Good Morning America” Tuesday. “We haven’t seen a bigger shift among a single group in quite a long time. . . . There’s no question that these voters have a very favorable opinion of Sarah Palin. They like what they saw, they like what they heard.”

Amazing, for what they heard was a speech written by one George W. Bush's speech writers.

What they heard was, literally, more of the same.

BUt! What they saw was... lipstick!

It's a shame that so many Americans are so easily fooled.

Posted by: Bushhhhh | Sep 9, 2008 8:42:26 AM

Well, not quite. They are smarter than you think they are. The recent poll has proven the point. The mask is falling and the reality is nothing but empty promises. They are tired to heard the same none-sense CHANGE and HOPE from the most negative person who wants to be GOD. It is about right time for the circus show to end.

Posted by: mtr2311 | Sep 9, 2008 8:55:52 AM

If American women will vote for Palin, that will be shooting themselves in the foot because Palin is the contrary to our aspirations in terms of being able to choose and decide about our brain, our body and our future. Voting for a woman yes, but Palin is the very wrong choice. Do not be taken away by her one speech and the republican propaganda, Palin is Cheney and McCain is WBush, do you need 4 more years of that same failed policies? God save America from McSame and Palin.

Posted by: BKMC | Sep 9, 2008 8:59:18 AM

I wish the mask would fall on his "public allies" program. Of course the media didn't think we needed to know, but the more I research the more I am freaking out...if Obama gets elected half of us are going to end up in a boot camp for radicals...this is truly scary stuff.

Posted by: samhiguchi | Sep 9, 2008 9:00:12 AM

Palin is genuine.
Obama is a fraud.
The media is clueless.

Posted by: geevill | Sep 9, 2008 9:03:10 AM

Sarah Palin will force your wife or daughter to have the baby if she is raped. Yeah, let's all get behind that!

Posted by: d miner | Sep 9, 2008 9:12:51 AM

L'habit ne fait pas le moine. Don't judge the book by its cover. Yes, indeed. All the fancy show-case, all the big words simply reveal the shallowness of the content and the message is simply just that : the empty barrel makes louder noise.

Posted by: mtr2311 | Sep 9, 2008 9:13:01 AM

Sarah Palin is generating excitement through novelty. Incidentally, all the McCain campaign's umbrage over "sexism" directed at her is severely undercut by their own delegates wearing "Hoosiers for the hot chick" buttons, and by Rush Limbaugh (I think it was) calling her "a babe." I guess a Republican woman who's not Ann Coulter is something to get excited about, but this nonsense will die down. The American public should realize that this campaign IS about issues (although McCain's campaign manager said it wasn't. And on the issues - Iraq withdrawl, tax breaks for the middle class - not millionaires, sensible energy independence, healthcare reform, on all of these Obama has a plan for positive change - McCain is trying to pretend he's for change but he's more of the same.

Posted by: jon in maryland | Sep 9, 2008 9:14:09 AM

Do you think there is a reason ABC was NOT invited to moderate debates this year?? Maybe people should go elsewhere for real information about the state of the race...

Posted by: Ray | Sep 9, 2008 9:15:13 AM

Typical bounce after the convention - she had one speech that incited both "bases", right and left. So its a wash right now. I'd really like to learn more about Palin (good and bad) and am amazed at the disinterest the media has in reporting her real record rather than the supposed 'truths' by fanboys and haters. So far, I'm not impressed by her grasp of economic issues but then again, politicians are usually clueless anyway.

I really think that if the GOP has a chance they have got to change their stance on Palin and get her in every talk show as quickly as possible. That is, unless she really doesn't have any more depth to her or she is crazy.

Posted by: MIguy | Sep 9, 2008 9:15:31 AM

Palin is a disastrous choice and I will be truly disappointed in the daughters of America if they can be so easily hoodwinked into voting against their better interests.

Posted by: A shill, a sham, a shame | Sep 9, 2008 9:18:08 AM

"Sarah Palin will force your wife or daughter to have the baby if she is raped. "

She will also ban "Controversal" book such as Harry Potter. She will send your children to join hers in Iraq. Understand hers was sent to avoid some criminal charges? Just a rumor. Any proof. Lets neuter this flea ridden pitbully before the Republicans get 4 more years. Yes this is the first time I have ever voted Democratic for President.

Posted by: community organizer | Sep 9, 2008 9:20:16 AM

BKMC - How long have you been declared legally blind? I have had "HOPE" that there would be "CHANGE" and it's here!! Palin, no doubt she's a winner, not like that empty suit OBAM-INATION. And by the way, I think GOD saved America with McWinner and Sarah Palin. Sorrrry, you Libs loose again. :)

Posted by: bombem | Sep 9, 2008 9:20:35 AM


Every canidate has a speech writer. Why do liberals only talk about Palin's?

LIBERAL=SEXIST

Posted by: julia | Sep 9, 2008 9:20:55 AM

I cant help but laugh when i see mccain chanting change is coming why has mccain copied obamas CHANGE MESSAGE please mccain has been in senate 26 years what has he changed hes voted with bush 90 percent of time and for him to stand there and say no lobbyist and special interest in the white house really cracks me up first he needs to clean up his campaign its loaded with lobbyist and his pitbull with lipstick IS A FRAUD AND A LIAR LIAR! GET YOUR OWN THEME MCAIN/PALIN STOP COPYING OFF OBAMA OBAMA/BIDEN08

Posted by: angie | Sep 9, 2008 9:22:04 AM

What most people don't realize is that:
1) Bad as gas prices are, they're even worse (twice as bad in Europe) elsewhere. It's a GLOBAL thing.
2) Unemployment has gone up to 6.1%. Guess what? In the Euozone (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Holland, etc) it is 7.3% In the UK the downturn is the worst in more than half a century. It's a GLOBAL thing.
Finally, GW Bush has had to deal for 2 years with a Democratic House and Senate. Bill Clinton had the luxury of a Republican-controlled Congress.

Posted by: Marty | Sep 9, 2008 9:22:52 AM

You are dissapointed that your candidate isn't pulling away like you were sure he would once everyone understood how smart he is just like you did. That is understandable.

Posted by: Kitty | Sep 9, 2008 9:23:39 AM

SARA PALIN THINKS THE WAR IN IRAQ IS GODS MISSION THIS WOMAN IS A QUACK NO FOREIGN POLICY EXPERIENCE ZIPPO NONE NADA! SHES NOT FIT TO STEP UP AS PRESIDENT!

Posted by: angie | Sep 9, 2008 9:24:10 AM

What is not surprising is that a heavily scripted image by the GOP leaves people impressed. Isn't it the media's job to investigate how closely that scripted image fits with reality? Or do you guys just wait around for the Oppo research to land in you Inbox? While you are waiting, you can try this joke out at the watercooler: What is the difference between Sarah Palin and Ted Stevens?

Lipstick

Posted by: Early Man | Sep 9, 2008 9:27:43 AM

As an Obama supporter, I like the polls as they stand right now. It's a great incentive for many to pay attention and vote. As far as the electoral standing, Obama is within the margins. Could you imagine what would happen if Obama won the electoral college and McCain won the popular vote? Now that would be exciting!!

Posted by: Shannon | Sep 9, 2008 9:27:46 AM

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