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The Note: Palin Seeks to Rock Stable Race

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October 01, 2008 8:40 AM

ABC News' Rick Klein reports in Wednesday's Note: As three of the four folks on the tickets return to their day jobs Wednesday, pay attention to the fact that the fourth candidate has cracked open “Joe Six-Pack” in time for her cramming sessions. 

Don’t look now -- but has the race’s outline been written? Blame it on the big things that are larger than the candidates -- the economic crisis, President Bush’s historically awful approval ratings, the inability of any senator to soar in a period of national angst -- but where we stand today is essentially where we stood six weeks ago..

Which is one reason why that fourth candidate matters now more than ever. Gov. Sarah Palin puts herself on the line in Thursday’s debate -- and will there be another single moment that’s as big for the tenor of this race? Will there be another chance to shoot holes through the old outline and field dress a new one?

(How much of her performance will depend on who gets to set expectations -- “Saturday Night Live” or the mainstream media -- raising Palin’s bar before our eyes?)

If this qualifies as daylight in the race, maybe we should get ready for a long night. The new ABC News/Washington Post poll speaks to an odd sort of stability that’s set in despite shifts among independent voters -- resulting in a narrow but consistent lead for Sen. Barack Obama. 

Read the rest of The Note -- and get all the latest on the 2008 election, Congress, the White House and the wide world of politics every day -- from Rick Klein by bookmarking this link.

Obama saw his White Sox beat the Twins 1-0 to squeak into the playoffs Tuesday. But even very late leads can change.

“Barack Obama maintains an advantage on the economy, especially economic empathy, and he's cracked majority acceptance on his key challenge, experience. But the political center remains unrooted, keeping John McCain in the race, albeit against headwinds,” ABC polling director Gary Langer writes. 

“Movement continues among independents, quintessential swing voters and a highly changeable group this year,” Langer writes. “They favored McCain by 10 points immediately after the Republican convention, swung to Obama last week and stand now at a close division between the two -- 48 percent for McCain, 45 percent for Obama in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll.” 

It’s Obama 50, McCain 46 among likely voters -- looking closer than the nine points the poll pegged the race at a week ago, despite a debate where more respondents said Obama won.

And how do you play this? “Voters are deeply divided over the terms of the government's $700 billion economic rescue package but overwhelmingly fear that the House's rejection of the measure on Monday could deepen the country's financial woes,” Dan Balz and Jon Cohen write in The Washington Post.

Continue reading today's Note by clicking HERE.

ABC News' Hope Ditto contributed to this report.

October 1, 2008 in Biden, Joe, Clinton, Bill, McCain, John, Obama, Barack, Palin, Sarah, Paul, Ron, Vote 2008: Democrats, Vote 2008: Republicans, Washington | Permalink | User Comments (119)

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ABC News own poll shows Obama LOST 5 percentage points. The race is within 4 points -- 50 -46 Obama -- yet ABC News still has on their own website all the headlines from LAST WEEK. You can't make this up. Their headline on their own webpage is Obama opens big lead 52-43!!! This is the Gewn Ifill school of idiocy.

Good Morning America and the Washington Post didn't mention their own poll showing a McCain surge.

This is a symbolic moment in liberal media derangement -- the CENSORSHIP of a poll that shows their candidate LOSING ground.

Posted by: Karen | Oct 1, 2008 8:52:56 AM

The media - which is definitely not liberal! - is doing just fine. The new poll is skewed 2 points to Caucasian and Republicans. There are analyses all over the web of the poll. For undecided voters, please watch Senator McCain's video response to the Des Moines Register questions. That, too, is available on the web. It is truly shocking and bears out reports regarding his temper and fitness for the office he is running for.

Posted by: Wiscon108 | Oct 1, 2008 8:57:18 AM

People are starting to see OBAMA for his talk BIG do little ways.Obama at his best.

Posted by: reddog0216 | Oct 1, 2008 8:57:59 AM

The Media is for sure Liberal with out a doubt Just like Hollywood.The media does not like conservative views

Posted by: reddog0216 | Oct 1, 2008 9:00:45 AM

First of all the ABC poll was crap. You changed the party ID by 12% in one week and there is no way Obama went from being 2% up among white women to 11% down in one week, when every other poll shows Obama increasing his overall support. Secondly by Palin calling herself "Joe Sixpack" she only ties herself closer to Bush which doesn't help.

Posted by: jen | Oct 1, 2008 9:03:55 AM

“I do not belive polls. All my democrat friends and family members are going to vote for McCain.” – Jake1. Jake1, I think you’re absolutely right. My family is half Democratic, and we’re voting McCain, too. An interesting note – many of my older family members refuse to put McCain signs on their lawns or bumper stickers on their cars. They let their answering machines pick up instead of answering the phones because they don’t want calls from the Obama campaign or from pollsters. Many of them have stated that, if contacted by a pollster, they would say they’re for Obama just to “avoid trouble.” They are afraid the information they gave would not be kept confidential. When I told a co-work about my relatives, she said virtually the same thing (and she is a young woman!!). She is a registered Democrat, and would NEVER admit to a pollster that she is voting for McCain. These pollsters might share information with the Obama people, she said. I never thought about the fear factor until I heard those comments. It makes me wonder how accurate the polls actually are. Are some registered Democrats lying to pollsters because they’re afraid to admit they’re backing McCain? We’ll know on November 4. (If you have heard similar comments from family/friends, would you respond?)

Posted by: Carrie | Oct 1, 2008 9:05:51 AM

"I don't believe in polls"

i.e. Last gasp for the side that's losing

Posted by: Reality Check Part 2 | Oct 1, 2008 9:15:05 AM

Carrie, I am a John McCain supporter, and an Independent. I did have Obama campaigners show up at my door, and I told them I’m voting for McCain. I would have no trouble telling a pollster what I think, but I do know people who would not – my mother and sisters, and my three aunts. They’re all Dems for McCain. None would admit to it publically. Would they lie to a pollster? Yeah, I’d bet my paycheck on it.

Posted by: Joe W., Indiana | Oct 1, 2008 9:23:47 AM

Frankly, I don't have any problems with Palin answers and I am a PhD from the University of Chicago. This lady speaks and talk like many of the people I met before, she is not "so sophisticated or used the language and big words we in the main cities or "Ivy League" schools, nor she uses calculated words like many of the DC politicians. She is simple and I believe people mistaken if they are comparing her to Hillary, Biden, Obama, Ferraro, etc. Those are people from different places, backgrounds, circles and lets face it very comfortable with the elites. They can't understand the cultural divide in this country, not everyone speaks and talks like the elite or big words politicians or script writers. Palin speaks a language that probably is a disgrace for the elites; but his words resound in middle America and that's what matters!

Ironically the same people that are adoring Obama with all his lacking of knowledge of issues, experience, those ones blinded by his charisma and seen no wrong or mistakes on him are the same ones that rushed to trash Palin with out getting to really know her. They have giving him 3 years to prepare and get used to his talking points and teleprompter and they are the same ones mocking and ridiculing Palin.That's a real double standard!

Like for example, what is wrong not to mention the newspapers she reads? I am sure she reads plenty. She just doesn't want too say it at this time. LOL. why to make an issue out of it??? I shouldn't be more objective to ask her staff about it? You can see the underline trend too create a caricature about her.

Posted by: Michael_Chicago | Oct 1, 2008 9:24:22 AM

Because it's the state by state polls that matter.

Ohio: Obama +8
Florida: Obama +8
Virginia: Obama +6
North Carolina: Obama +2
Iowa: Obama +10
Colorado: Obama +4
New Mexico: Obama +11

These are states Bush won in 2000 and 2004.

Posted by: Vanessa | Oct 1, 2008 9:30:34 AM

Gwen Ifill has a FINANCIAL conflict of interest. She needs to be replaced as moderator by Ray Suarez.
The Breakthrough: Politics and Race in the Age of Obama (Hardcover)
by Gwen Ifill
"In THE BREAKTHROUGH, veteran journalist Gwen Ifill surveys the American political landscape, shedding new light on the impact of Barack Obama’s stunning presidential campaign and introducing the emerging young African American politicians forging a bold new path to political power.

Posted by: geevill | Oct 1, 2008 9:30:54 AM

Carrie, I would never lie to a pollster because I think people are influenced very much by polls. If one candidate is leading in the polls, some of the other candidate’s supporters might not show up at the polls, figuring why bother? However, this subject you brought up has been discussed in my own circle of friends. My parents (in their sixties) would never admit to voting for McCain. They are registered Democrats. I don’t think they’d actually lie to a pollster. I think they would just hang up.

Posted by: Another Sarah | Oct 1, 2008 9:32:27 AM

Has any one seen the Messiah lately?

Posted by: bombem | Oct 1, 2008 9:40:21 AM

Carrie, I don’t know if people are lying to pollsters. I do know that many of my family and friends who normally vote Democratic are voting for McCain. I saw a poll recently that said over 85% of Democrats are supporting Obama. I flat out don’t believe it. I know too many Democrats who aren’t

Posted by: Kim | Oct 1, 2008 9:43:34 AM

I have never seen such desperation on the part of the media. First they are trying to tar and feather Palin. Most of America identifies with her. The media is on shaky ground here.

Second they are trying to keep the news from us that the bail out is actually a bail out for Chinese and other foreign banks. The provision to make the bail out for American firms that had ownership of paper on September 20th was scrubbed.

Go Palin!

Posted by: lately | Oct 1, 2008 9:44:16 AM

Is the main reason people some people may not vote for Palin is because of her lack of foreign policy experience. She has as much as Obama.

Almost every president in this past century has been a governor with no, or virtually no, foreign policy experience. Palin, like Obama will have to do, can learn it on the job. Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton did not have any foreign policy experience. So why all the fuss.

Biden is a little addle brained now...

Posted by: Fran | Oct 1, 2008 9:46:25 AM

Gwen Ifell should recuse herself.

Posted by: lately | Oct 1, 2008 9:46:30 AM

THE WALL STREET BAILOUT IS A TRAP:

YOU DID THE RIGHT THING people by stopping this 700 billion dollar bailout of Wall Street with your money. It's a trap set by the Bush McCain administration years ago to spring on you, and the World just before the November elections. It will cripple our economy for years to come by taking away money from important social programs like health care reform, education, and social security.

What ever congress does to try and fix our stunning economic catastrophe needs to be done very carefully. Congress needs to take their time, and be sure of what they are doing. Whatever is done needs to be sharply focused at helping, and protecting the best interest of the ordinary Americans. In particular the vast American middle class. 700 billion dollars is a lot of the peoples money to spend to bail out a bunch of corrupt Bush loan sharks.

When have you ever known any government plan, or project to only cost what the government said it would. Remember the war in Iraq. Bush and his so-called advisers said it would only cost you about 80 billion dollars. But we now know that the war in Iraq will cost you, and your children, and your grand children over a trillion dollars, and still counting.

So if 80 billion can end up costing you over a trillion dollars. How much could 700 billion end up costing you. Any math wizards out there. I come up with 9 trillion...:-(

My fellow human beings, just as I warned you ahead of this catastrophic economic meltdown, I must now warn you that what is ahead has the potential to be even more catastrophic than what we are going through now. The worlds geopolitical landscape has been booby trapped by the Bush McCain administration and their republican allies in congress. These booby traps are poised to spring at any time.

Fortunately the Worlds Nations have been blessed with many excellent leaders (except the US) who have been careful, wise, strong, and self-restrained in dealing with the provocations, and antagonism's of the Bush, McCain administration.

Barack Obama and the democrats are your best hope now. Tell your family, friends, and everyone you know to support them as best you can, and vote for them like your life, and the lives of your loved ones depends on it. Because it does. You will not survive 4 more years of Bush McCain.

JACK SMITH - WORKING CLASS...

Posted by: jacksmith | Oct 1, 2008 9:52:22 AM

Hey Carrie! I live in St. Louis, Missouri. I can’t sign my name because, you know, the Democratic Missouri Truth Squad might come after me. I’d lie to a pollster!!!! If I admit I don’t worship the Messiah, the Democratic officials here in Missouri might have me audited, or raise my property taxes, or whatever!!! I don’t want Bob McCullough or Jennifer Joyce showing up at my door with a camera crew behind them, charging me with failure to properly worship Jesus Obama. Thank God the voting booth is private!!!!!

Posted by: Missouri Police State Voter | Oct 1, 2008 9:54:40 AM

To the poster who claims a PhD from University of Chicago -
either you are an imposter, or the dumbing down of education is producing persons with advanced degrees incapable of writing a correct English sentence.

Posted by: Sara | Oct 1, 2008 9:56:34 AM

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