Palin Bust in Alaska?

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November 06, 2008 2:49 PM

ABC News’ Rick Klein Reports: Election officials in Alaska were preparing for record-breaking turnout on Tuesday, with hyper-competitive House and Senate races -- and, of course, a popular home-state governor having won a spot on Sen. John McCain’s ticket.

But Election Day is looking like it was a turnout bust in Alaska. As of Thursday, voter turnout in the state stood at a measly 45.1 percent -- well below the 69.1 percent turnout clocked in in the 2004 presidential race, according to state election officials.

The 2008 number is certain to rise significantly as additional absentee and provisional ballots are tallied. But turnout specialists say it’s clear that the so-called “Palin effect” Republicans expected to see didn’t drive up voting numbers in Gov. Sarah Palin’s home state.

“It’s just perplexing to me,” said Michael McDonald, a George Mason University professor who specializes in voter turnout. “You can make some inferences, I guess, about Sarah Palin’s future. If this was a referendum on her in the state, perhaps there’s not as much enthusiasm about her as their used to be.”

Shelly Growden, Alaska’s elections systems manager, tells ABC News that the current vote totals don’t tell the full story. At least 70,000 absentee and provisional ballots have yet to be counted, she said.

The state won’t know for several days even how many absentee and provisional ballots were issued, or many of those will be received in time to counted. In Alaska, absentee ballots must be postmarked by Election Day but can arrive as many as 10 days after the election if mailed domestically, and 15 days if sent from overseas, Growden said.

She said she expects final 2008 turnout to have exceeded the 60.1 percent recorded in the 2000 election, though it still probably won’t approach the numbers reached in 2004.

“We were preparing for it to be higher,” Growden said.

The numbers are particularly surprising not just because of Palin but because, for the first time in recent history in Alaska, two competitive congressional races were being decided.

Sen. Ted Stevens, R-Alaska, was bidding for an eighth term in a race that remains too close for a winner to be declared. And Rep. Don Young, R-Alaska, was vying for a 19th term as the state’s sole House member, in another race where no winner has yet been determined.

Alaska was not seriously contested at the presidential level. The McCain-Palin ticket cruised to Alaska’s three electoral votes, winning by a 62-36 margin as of Thursday’s latest count.

And turnout in Alaska may have been impacted by the relatively early resolution of the presidential contest. Polls closed there at 1 am ET, some two hours after the major networks projected that Sen. Barack Obama would win the presidency.

More likely, McDonald said, is that the tattered state of the Republican Party nationally and locally kept GOP voters home. Stevens was convicted on federal felony charges last month, and Young is also under criminal investigation -- and was the proud champion of the much-derided “Bridge to Nowhere” project.

Either explanation for the lower-than-expected turnout probably isn’t good news for Palin, who returns to Alaska with two years left on her gubernatorial term, McDonald said.

“By all accounts, turnout should have been up in Alaska,” he said.

November 6, 2008 in Biden, Joe, McCain, John, Obama, Barack, Palin, Sarah | Permalink | User Comments (311)

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Calling the election for Obama before Alaska polls closed had nothing to do with turnout?

Posted by: Sue | Nov 6, 2008 3:07:40 PM

Sarah is a downer. I think the people of Alaska are depressed. First you have the fanatial mayor and then there's the senator turned felon. Thankfully, Sarah is back to being "their problem".

Posted by: Sarah Who? | Nov 6, 2008 3:09:22 PM

Geez...I'm the first to comment? I guess Palin has fallen into obscurity. Or as I'd like to think. The Wasilla Hillbillies have crawled back under their rock.

Bye, bye. LOSER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by: REDtoBLUE | Nov 6, 2008 3:12:54 PM

Hm. Could it be that people in Alaska like Palin but didn't think highly of McCain? Why blame Palin?

Look, it's ABC reporting here, and the MSM is notoriously in the tank for the Liberal faction. Watch out where you get your news. It may not be "fair and balanced".

Posted by: Apple | Nov 6, 2008 3:13:03 PM

Maybe she needs to take a little safari in the "country" of Africa.

Posted by: Jeremy | Nov 6, 2008 3:14:23 PM

The MSM has the election called for Obama before the polls were even closed in Alaska. Voter suppressive phone calls to Western United States-yes these things did cause less voters to turn out. Im wondering if all the newly registered student voters realize that they have to do jury duty now, and if they call a draft under Obama whether male or female-they will have to go to war. Enjoy him-oh yes please cover that story about Obama campaign not paying its workers, near rioting and police involvement.This is the hope and change you can believe in.

Posted by: ctay | Nov 6, 2008 3:15:10 PM

You learn something new every day. Not only is "fanatial" a word, apparently, but now the most popular governor in the country is a pariah.

Remember how the press lined up against Edwards after the '04 election? No? How about that.

Posted by: Jim Treacher | Nov 6, 2008 3:16:22 PM

Another poorly framed article from ABC news. I think your entire staff should seek counseling. .. their fixation with all things Palin and their fetish with trying to diminish and demean her shows no bounds. Once more I say shame on you! Please, schedule some inservices or go back to journalism school. . .this really is scandalous.

Posted by: margaret | Nov 6, 2008 3:16:26 PM

Alaskans are sending a convicted felon back to the senate.....shamefull
Maybe he can be their leader once they seceed from the union

Posted by: shame | Nov 6, 2008 3:16:52 PM

The one bright spot in the McCain campaign was Sarah Palin. The 'moderates" who engineered the worst campaign since Michael Dukakis rode in a tank are trying to destroy Sarah Palin to cover their own failures. These clowns have been tougher on Sarah than they ever were on Obama & his gang of questionable associates.

Posted by: paulejb | Nov 6, 2008 3:17:44 PM

It's because the election was called HOURS before polls closed in Alaska. Geez, liberals are stupid folks aren't they?

Posted by: LIBERALS ARE STUPID | Nov 6, 2008 3:17:58 PM

Geez...I'm the first to comment? I guess Palin has fallen into obscurity. Or as I'd like to think. The Wasilla Hillbillies have crawled back under their rock.

Bye, bye. LOSER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

That statement says more about you as a person, then the effect you hoped to have, by stating it. ;)

Posted by: Jeanie | Nov 6, 2008 3:19:25 PM

A lot of people in Alaska voted for Palin that did not vote for Stevens or Young. This is after the massive hatchet job the media laid on her and her family.

Palin has an over 80% approval rating in Alaska for a reason folks. Try to pretend otherwise but eventually the truth will overtake your delusion.

Posted by: dkap | Nov 6, 2008 3:19:48 PM

the media or liberal bloggers will link anything bad to Palin.. anything

the polLs had mccain winning at 59% so people generally think their vote dont matter

ONE DAY YOU GUYS WILL TURN ON OBANMA.. MARK MY WORDS.

Posted by: TJ, THE CLINTONITE | Nov 6, 2008 3:20:50 PM

Rasmussen recorded her approval rating just last week in the 60s. Lots of governors would still kill for those numbers. And don't forget Stevens was down-ballot from her. I'll take their evidence over your anecdotes, thanks very much.

The formation of impressions is a two-way street, and I don't think Sarah Palin's the only one suffering as a result of the way she's been covered. What flimsy scraps of trust I had in the traditional print and broadcast media are gone.

Posted by: DrSteve | Nov 6, 2008 3:22:44 PM

Alaskans are sending a convicted felon back to the senate.....shamefull
Maybe he can be their leader once they seceed from the union

Shame on Shame(less), or did your selective logic keep you from remembering Cold Cash Jefferson's victory?

Democrat Rep. William “Cold Cash” Jefferson cruised to victory yesterday, winning re-election to his ninth term in Congress.

Another stupid Demonrat without any concern for perspective.

Posted by: Greg | Nov 6, 2008 3:23:32 PM

I disliked Palin from the first. I knew of her reputation in Alaska even before she was chosen and I was totally shocked that McCain would have chosen HER of all people! She brought down McCain and she will be a loser if she tries to go it on her own in the national policical arena.

Please, no more Palin! Obama is bad enough.

Posted by: Jenna | Nov 6, 2008 3:23:37 PM

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Amen, not to mention the 6 African American men, that left a tip to a waitress in a Chicago bar on election night.

It said.......

"Tip 4 the day....Blacks run the new black house itchbay"

Now the last word is in pig latin. Figure it out. Scary stuff going on out there now! I hope to run acrossed an Obama supporter, whining, when things aren't quite what they were promised to be.

I'll get to look them in the eye and say....and you thought Sarah was bad, eh?

Posted by: Jeanie | Nov 6, 2008 3:23:52 PM

Let's see...the good citizens of Alaska have watched their very popular and capable governor trashed by the media trying to carry a not very convincing Republican candidate through the last days of a race he hadn't tried very hard to win.

They're faced with having to reelect a felon (and hope that he'll then quit, or the Senate will refuse to seat him, so that someone halfway honest can take the seat) to keep the seat out of the Democrats' hands

And the media had already called the Presidential election for Obama before a lot of 'em would have lined up to vote anyway.

Any reason they should be happy?

Posted by: mrkwong | Nov 6, 2008 3:25:03 PM

ctay, the pay issue happened here in Indianapolis. Not as big a deal as you think, but then you can always "HOPE"! The police were called to keep the poeple out of the street and the Chief of police stated there were no problems. I live and vote in Indianapolis and it was changed to BLUE. Don't hate people, participate.

Posted by: KayCee | Nov 6, 2008 3:26:29 PM

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