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The Note: McCain Hopes to Make Polls Wrong
November 03, 2008 8:54 AM
ABC News' Rick Klein reports in Monday's Note:
Here at the final table . . .
The Wright and Clinton cards are getting played (late) . . .
Barack Obama won’t be answering questions . . .
John McCain won’t be having another town hall . . .
Obama is giving Sarah Palin more airtime than McCain is . . .
Both candidates get one final messaging shot, on “Monday Night Football” . . .
The expanded map is shrinking into focus . . .
And, as always, it’s about the stubborn math.
Read the rest of The Note -- and get all the latest on the 2008 election, Congress, the White House and the wide world of politics every day -- from Rick Klein by bookmarking this link.
The presidential candidates are taking their final, hectic laps through the states that will determine the election with the typical last-minute barbs and surprise (but not really) new attack lines.
Less than 24 hours before the voting starts, it’s really this simple: If McCain stands a realistic chance, all the numbers and the smart folks have to be systematically and completely wrong -- or need to be made wrong inside of 24 hours.
Messaging and prognosticating are subsumed by realities like turnout at this stage -- and numbers, at last, take over for spin. That means an even narrower path to victory for a campaign that’s trying to do more than just go through the final, inevitable motions.
“Heading into Tuesday's election, every major independent poll gives Democratic presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama the lead over his Republican opponent, Sen. John McCain,” Stephen Dinan writes in the Washington Times. “In the state-by-state matchup, the news is also good for Mr. Obama -- the polls suggest he will easily flip Iowa, which went Republican in 2004, and has a lead in a series of other traditionally Republican ‘red’ states: Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico.”
ABC’s George Stephanopoulos notes the relatively stability of the polls, and the shrinking universe of undecideds: “We think only 8 percent [of the remaining voters] are undecided, and we think they break pretty evenly for McCain and Obama,” he said on “Good Morning America” Monday.
Continue reading today's Note by clicking HERE.
ABC News' Hope Ditto contributed to this report.
November 3, 2008 in Ballotwatch, Biden, Joe, Clinton, Bill, Clinton, Hillary, McCain, John, Obama, Barack, Palin, Sarah, Vote 2008: Democrats, Vote 2008: Republicans, Washington, White House | Permalink | User Comments (104)
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The polls have been "made wrong" before. Remember those 2004 exit polls?
Posted by: dragon | Nov 3, 2008 9:06:30 AM
No way no how no MaCain. OBAMA/BIDEN 2008 & 2012.
Posted by: mike | Nov 3, 2008 9:12:37 AM
John McCain has run a bad campaign. He has run an erratic campaign. He has run an unremittingly negative campaign. McCain doesn't have good ideas or policies. He only wants to make people afraid of the "unknown" aspect of Obama. Here's what's known about Obama: he has run the most disciplined, most enthusiastic, best organized campaign in modern political history. He has outplayed McCain and that hack Rick Davis at every turn. McCain does not deserve to win this election. He doesn't deserve to win for the selection of Sarah "Bubblehead" Palin alone, but there are lots of other reasons. If McCain wins, it will be a testament to the foolishness and latent racism of the American public.
Posted by: jon in maryland | Nov 3, 2008 9:13:06 AM
Even Rick Davis must realize that the game is almost up. Polls may be wrong by a few points in some instances, but McCain will need a pollster meltdown of historic proportions in every battleground states to have even a shot of winning tomorrow.
Posted by: matt | Nov 3, 2008 9:20:07 AM
I tell you that the real conservatives in this country should endorse (quietly) Obama's campaign because he was raised through age 30 under 10 years of Kennedy/Johnson/Carter but 20 of Nixon/Ford/Reagan policies.
1. This shows that he prospered under relatively conservative policies.
2. He is the fruit of the "color blind" policies that were being pushed.
3. If elected, a lot the rationale for affirmative action and similar race-based quotas goes away because the system did work. He saw his opportunities and took them.
4. If he were a little more conservative (maybe a lot more), he would be the poster child of those folks.
Posted by: Mr. Coffee | Nov 3, 2008 9:22:47 AM
Nobama, Action creates change not words.
can anyone show a past action obama has done that supports his words.
People words are nice, but action creates change and obama has none in his past that supports his words.
Remember just empty words.
Posted by: Anthony | Nov 3, 2008 9:24:54 AM
dragon: "The polls have been "made wrong" before. Remember those 2004 exit polls?"
I would think it's more relevant to remember the polls the day before the election, which all pointed to a George Bush win (although they had him up by 1-3 points and it was closer than that).
Posted by: jhw539 | Nov 3, 2008 9:25:19 AM
Anthony: "can anyone show a past action obama has done that supports his words."
He turned down a lucrative job and $$$ (to pay off his student loans) to work with the poor in Chicago. That is a verified action.
He wrote and, over initial objections and a veto promise, eventually gained biapartisan support and the governor's signature for a law requiring police interrogations and confessions in serious cases be videotaped. Time has proven that to be an excellent law that protects citizens from overzealous police and aids prosecutors and juries with iron-clad evidence of guilty parties who slipped and incriminated themselves under interrogation.
Can you show ACTUAL ACHIEVEMENTS of John McCain now? Please? I've been asking for months and the best people can come up with is his campaign finance law (that he made a mockery of with his $30k+ per plate fundraisers for the RNC Committee to Elect John McCain) and his stand against torture, which failed to have any real impact on President Bush's actions. So, please give me a couple factual examples. Thanks.
Posted by: jhw539 | Nov 3, 2008 9:30:31 AM
Posted by: samurai | Nov 3, 2008 9:34:34 AM
Ask Senator McCain why he hasn't
condemned Fantasy Maverick Sara Palin's implementation of the Alaska cruise ship tax of $50 for every cruise ship passenger sailing into Alaskan territorial waters including infants & the elderly? Is that family values? Why tax infants without
comprehension of such events let alone
lacking their own revenue sources?
Isn't that more socialism for the wealthiest state,the only state not in recession? Aren't American Citizens
tired of the failures of subsidies for
those looting us?
Posted by: tree-of-life | Nov 3, 2008 9:40:48 AM
No way No how No Mccain/Palin America cannot afford those two they are Liars, Corrupt, both have broken Ethical laws how are they gonna clean up corruption in Washington when both have been found Guilty of violating Ethics,THEY ARE NOT CHANGE THEY ARE THE SAME WAKE UP AMERICA NOW IS OUR CHANCE TO GET IT RIGHT VOTE VOTE VOTE OBAMA/BIDEN TOMMOROW
Posted by: TRUE AMERICAN FOR OBAMA/BIDEN | Nov 3, 2008 9:42:51 AM
Is it true that Palin kept moving from college to college because of pregnancies? Where are those children? Did she give them up or have abortions?
Posted by: mudge007 | Nov 3, 2008 9:43:01 AM
No way No how No Mccain/Palin America cannot afford those two they are Liars, Corrupt, both have broken Ethical laws how are they gonna clean up corruption in Washington when both have been found Guilty of violating Ethics,THEY ARE NOT CHANGE THEY ARE THE SAME WAKE UP AMERICA NOW IS OUR CHANCE TO GET IT RIGHT VOTE VOTE VOTE OBAMA/BIDEN TOMMOROW
Posted by: TRUE AMERICAN FOR OBAMA/BIDEN | Nov 3, 2008 9:43:12 AM
No way no how no MaCain.
Posted by: mike | Nov 3, 2008 9:12:37 AM
===
Was that from a race-baiting victim?
Posted by: 0-0=0 | Nov 3, 2008 9:43:13 AM
Is it true that Palin kept moving from college to college because of pregnancies? Where are those children? Did she give them up or have abortions?
Posted by: mudge007 | Nov 3, 2008 9:44:04 AM
I only see 2 positive outcomes of Obama winning the election.
1. We can take the RACE CARD out of the DECK!
2. With a Democratic President and Democratic Majority in Congress, in 4 years the Democrats have no-one to blame. (especially, if they get a filibuster proof Congress)
Sad thing is, with option number 2, even if the Dems can't fix anything and are thrown out in 2 and 4 years, they will have put in place a Liberal Majority Supreme court and will set themselves up to make laws from the bench after they are gone.
Posted by: ajax | Nov 3, 2008 9:45:09 AM
MUDGE007
Maybe thats why they wont release her Medical records!
Posted by: TRUE AMERICAN FOR OBAMA/BIDEN | Nov 3, 2008 9:45:41 AM
If Obamba is so comfortable with redistribution, do you think he would be ok if the votes are redistributed in favor of Mccain on election day?
When it comes to redistribution, did Obama share his record campaign money with Mccain? It seems silly doesn't it, redistribution just doesn't work, nor does it make sense; unless of course, you are redistributing the possessions of someone else. What it comes down to, is the candidates position on individual rights and the governments control over distributing personal property.
Posted by: none | Nov 3, 2008 9:46:19 AM
McCain/Palin, the party is over. McCain, is a sore/angry mean old man looser.
My Predition:
Obama win the General with 380 electoral votes.
Posted by: Lookup | Nov 3, 2008 9:46:52 AM
It is so ironic - Deja vu all over again.
Gore will be the winner!!!
Kerry will be the winner!!!
Obama will be the winner!!!
Posted by: none | Nov 3, 2008 9:49:04 AM
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