Political Radar: Ballotwatch

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House Race Update: Ohio Sup. Ct. to Rule on Franklin County Votes

November 25, 2008 8:38 PM

ABC News' Teddy Davis and Arnab Datta Report: A federal appeals court ruled Tuesday that the Ohio Supreme Court -- and not a federal district court -- is the proper forum to decide how approximately 1,000 challenged provisional votes should be counted in a tight congressional race between Ohio state Sen. Steve Stivers (R) and Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy (D).

The "court case… has been remanded to the Ohio Supreme Court," said Kevin Kidder, spokesman for Ohio's Secretary of State.

None of Franklin County's approximately 27,000 provisional ballots can be counted until the Supreme Court resolves what to do with the 1,000 ballots in question.

The race in Ohio's 15th congressional district is to fill the House seat being vacated by retiring Rep. Deborah Pryce (R-OH).

Stivers, the Republican candidate, is the candidate challenging the validity of approximately 1,000 provisional ballots in Franklin County.

On Nov. 20, a federal judge in Columbus ruled that because the disputed ballots were deficient due to poll worker error, they constitute valid votes that "must be opened and counted."

The 6th Circuit Court of Appeals decided on Tuesday that the validity of the ballots should be decided by the Ohio Supreme Court and not by a federal district court.

According to the Associated Press, Kilroy, the Democrat, currently trails Stivers, the Republican, by 594 votes.

It is not yet known when the Ohio Supreme Court will render its decision.

November 25, 2008 in Ballotwatch, Vote 2008: Democrats, Vote 2008: Republicans, Washington | Permalink | User Comments (4)

The Note: Obama Seeks to Define Mandate

November 05, 2008 8:24 AM

ABC News' Rick Klein reports in Wednesday's Note:

The One is the one. Yes, we can, and yes, he did -- but can he really?

A new dawn arrived, coming long before sunrise -- and closing out a long-lasting morning in America. It casts light on a new map, produced by a new electorate, and invites in a new president’s vision for a troubled time.

President-Elect Barack Hussein Obama -- his name itself speaking to the improbable journey that brought him here -- gets a mandate to go with his landslide, yes. Now, out of the grand scramble to define what that means, comes the great challenge that may define a generation: What to do with it.

For Sen. John McCain -- a graceful exit that gives the nation the gift of finality, if not quite unity. A return to the Senate enhanced by a remarkable run of his own -- the chance, still, to serve his country.

For congressional Democrats -- expanded majorities in the House and Senate, though not the kind that makes compromise optional. (And will we find out what Nancy Pelosi’s House looks like without Rahm Emanuel -- the odds-on choice to become Obama’s chief of staff?)

Read the rest of The Note -- and get all the latest on the 2008 election, Congress, the White House and the wide world of politics every day -- from Rick Klein by bookmarking this link.

For the GOP -- rock-bottom, perhaps, and new opportunities. The party is wide open for rebranding, and the smart minds know how quickly 2010 approaches. (In the meantime, it’s going to get ugly.)

This is Obama’s story though, with much still unwritten. He won his way: A calm, confident campaign that defied conventions and disproved assumptions. A broad demographic and geographic sweep -- the kind we’ve been trained to think can no longer exist in polarized American politics.

Can he govern the same way?

“A national catharsis,” declares The New York Times’ Adam Nagourney, “a repudiation of a historically unpopular Republican president and his economic and foreign policies, and an embrace of Mr. Obama’s call for a change in the direction and the tone of the country.”

“Barack Obama built his victory out of a concrete base of near unanimous support from black voters, layered with overwhelming support from Hispanics, young people and enough white voters to remake the partisan landscape in the United States,” ABC’s Brian Hartman writes.

“This happened because we did this -- we did this, America did this,” Oprah Winfrey told ABC’s Robin Roberts, on “Good Morning America” Wednesday.

Continue reading today's Note by clicking HERE.

ABC News' Hope Ditto contributed to this report.

November 5, 2008 in Ballotwatch, Biden, Joe, Bush, George W., Clinton, Bill, Clinton, Hillary, McCain, John, Obama, Barack, Palin, Sarah, Vote 2008: Democrats, Washington, White House | Permalink | User Comments (88)

The Note: Candidates Make Final Stops as Election Goes to Voters

November 04, 2008 8:55 AM

ABC News' Rick Klein reports in Tuesday's Election Day Note:

My friends, it’s time to turn the page. You betcha, literally.

From Wasilla to Wilmington, whether you’re a plumber or a superdelegate, a Wright or a Wurzelbacher, a hopemonger or a pitbull or Miss Congeniality, That One or The One or Joe Sixpack, it’s all over but the voting now.

That would be 19 hours of voting -- with the first polls having opened at 6 am ET in eastern states (and long lines forming early) and the last polls closing at 1 am ET Wednesday in Alaska. (Alas, no one votes at 3 am.)

Your bitter fundamentals: 35 Senate races, 435 House races, 11 governor’s contests, ballot initiatives from a ban on gay marriage in California to a ban on the income tax in Massachusetts -- and a little big thing known as the presidency being decided in 50 states plus the District of Columbia.

This remarkable journey -- the longest and costliest campaign in history, with detours through Rudy and Huck and Romney and Ron Paul ’08, and Edwards and Richardson and Mike Gravel and Hillary and Hillary and Hillary -- isn’t quite done yet:

John McCain votes in Arizona Tuesday morning and then makes quick trips to Colorado and New Mexico -- trying to hold on in his native Southwest. (No movie on this kind of packed schedule.)

Barack Obama touches down in the Indianapolis area during the day before settling in for the evening in Chicago, with his massive late-night rally set for Grant Park. (And yes, he’s building in some time for basketball.)

Joe Biden votes in Wilmington, Del., early Tuesday, then hits Richmond, Va., at 11 am ET before heading to the Hyatt Hotel in Chicago for the long wait.

Sarah Palin is en route to Wasilla, Alaska, to vote Tuesday, then will head back to Arizona to be with McCain at the Biltmore in Phoenix.

As for who gets to celebrate: The final ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll puts it at a nine-point race, 53-44 Obama over McCain. Obama is “strong in the center and even encroaching on some Republican-leaning groups. Obama trails by 7 points among whites, for example -- a group John Kerry lost by 17,” per ABC’s polling director Gary Langer.

Continue reading today's Note by clicking HERE.

ABC News' Hope Ditto contributed to this report.

November 4, 2008 in Ballotwatch, Biden, Joe, Clinton, Bill, Clinton, Hillary, McCain, John, Obama, Barack, Palin, Sarah, Vote 2008: Democrats, Vote 2008: Republicans, Washington, White House | Permalink | User Comments (29)

The Note: McCain Hopes to Make Polls Wrong

November 03, 2008 8:54 AM

ABC News' Rick Klein reports in Monday's Note:

Here at the final table . . .

The Wright and Clinton cards are getting played (late) . . .

Barack Obama won’t be answering questions . . .

John McCain won’t be having another town hall . . .

Obama is giving Sarah Palin more airtime than McCain is . . .

Both candidates get one final messaging shot, on “Monday Night Football” . . .

The expanded map is shrinking into focus . . .

And, as always, it’s about the stubborn math.

The presidential candidates are taking their final, hectic laps through the states that will determine the election with the typical last-minute barbs and surprise (but not really) new attack lines.

Less than 24 hours before the voting starts, it’s really this simple: If McCain stands a realistic chance, all the numbers and the smart folks have to be systematically and completely wrong -- or need to be made wrong inside of 24 hours.

Messaging and prognosticating are subsumed by realities like turnout at this stage -- and numbers, at last, take over for spin. That means an even narrower path to victory for a campaign that’s trying to do more than just go through the final, inevitable motions.

“Heading into Tuesday's election, every major independent poll gives Democratic presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama the lead over his Republican opponent, Sen. John McCain,” Stephen Dinan writes in the Washington Times. “In the state-by-state matchup, the news is also good for Mr. Obama -- the polls suggest he will easily flip Iowa, which went Republican in 2004, and has a lead in a series of other traditionally Republican ‘red’ states: Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico.”

ABC’s George Stephanopoulos notes the relatively stability of the polls, and the shrinking universe of undecideds: “We think only 8 percent [of the remaining voters] are undecided, and we think they break pretty evenly for McCain and Obama,” he said on “Good Morning America” Monday.

Continue reading today's Note by clicking HERE.

ABC News' Hope Ditto contributed to this report.

November 3, 2008 in Ballotwatch, Biden, Joe, Clinton, Bill, Clinton, Hillary, McCain, John, Obama, Barack, Palin, Sarah, Vote 2008: Democrats, Vote 2008: Republicans, Washington, White House | Permalink | User Comments (104)

The Note: Obama, McCain Battle on GOP Turf

November 02, 2008 9:00 AM

ABC News' Rick Klein reports in Sunday's Special Edition of The Note:

If the October surprise was that we weren’t surprised, November’s surprise is that we still might be.

(And Barack Obama and Sarah Palin definitely still can be.)

For consumption this Sunday: A presidential candidate sends back money to an aunt he didn’t know was around, because she’s in the country illegally. Another presidential candidate gets his nationally televised infomercial -- and tries to hawk cheap commemorative flatware.

A vice-presidential endorsement is turned into a quickie TV ad -- by the other side. A would-be vice president agrees to a hunting date with a Canadian comedian posing as the president of France.

Just enough surprises to remind us: For every certain assertion, there’s a caveat; for every poll, an outlier; for every clear-eyed prediction, clouds.

The map may be turning blue, but red-state voters stand the best chance of glimpsing a candidate between now and Tuesday. Obama spends his Sunday hitting Ohio’s three largest cities, (with Bruce Springsteen joining him in Cleveland), then visits Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia on Monday before winding his journey up in Chicago.

John McCain makes his final stabs at offense Sunday, in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire (a superstitious candidate does his final town hall in a lucky spot), before ending his day in Florida. Seven states Monday: Florida, Tennessee (to reach a remote swath of Virginia), Pennsylvania (again), Indiana, New Mexico, Nevada, and, finally, Arizona.

(Worth questioning, outcome depending: Why is McCain insisting on a final New Hampshire stop? Why is Obama not making a final Pennsylvania stop?)

Palin does a full Ohio day Sunday, then spends Monday in Ohio, Missouri, Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada; she won’t breathe blue-state air until after the election, save for a refueling stop in Seattle as she heads back to Alaska.

For Biden, it’s all Florida Sunday, then Missouri, Ohio, and Pennsylvania Monday, on his way back to Delaware.

If cartography is destiny, the landscape for McCain is bleak indeed.

“Mr. Obama was using the last days of the contest to make incursions into Republican territory, campaigning Saturday in three states -- Colorado, Missouri and Nevada -- that President Bush won relatively comfortably in 2004,” Adam Nagourney writes in The New York Times. “The campaign’s final days brought a reminder of how Mr. Obama’s financial might had allowed him to redraw the political map. In addition to the states he visited on Saturday, Mr. Obama was planning stops Sunday in Florida, North Carolina and Virginia, which went Republican four years ago.”

Continue reading today's Note by clicking HERE.

ABC News' Hope Ditto and Arnab Datta contributed to this report.

November 2, 2008 in Ballotwatch, Biden, Joe, Clinton, Bill, Clinton, Hillary, McCain, John, Obama, Barack, Palin, Sarah, Vote 2008: Democrats, Vote 2008: Republicans, Washington, White House | Permalink | User Comments (0)

The Note: McCain Caught in Old Pull Between Center, Right

October 31, 2008 8:53 AM

ABC News' Rick Klein reports in Friday's Note:

So as October is set to pass without a surprise . . .

Sen. Barack Obama wants us to be scared of something in the rearview mirror . . .

While Sen. John McCain wants us to be scared of something coming into view through the front windshield . . .

Both candidates are a little bit scared when their running mates get behind the wheel. . .

Republicans are mildly haunted by a ghost whose name cannot be mentioned . . .

Democrats are counting on certain ghosts in Florida . . .

And McCain is dealing with a set of familiar demons.

Read the rest of The Note -- and get all the latest on the 2008 election, Congress, the White House and the wide world of politics every day -- from Rick Klein by bookmarking this link.

As he and his running mate tax the tax issue, and hope for a boost from an action hero Friday, McCain is caught in the same sort of push-pull that has defined his political career.

Call it the Palin Paradox: McCain seems unable to effectively fire up the GOP base without turning off independents. He can’t win without both, not this year, not in this climate. And Palin, for all the energy she’s inspired, has pretty much literally caused more trouble than she’s worth to the ticket.

Does this sound like total confidence? "The enthusiasm level is incredibly high," McCain told ABC’s Robin Roberts in Ohio, on "Good Morning America" Friday. "It’s higher than I’ve ever seen it in any campaign I’ve ever been in. I’m not predicting -- well, I think, I’m confident that we’ll win, but this intensity level in the last several days has really been remarkable. And I’m enthusiastic."

"We’re going to fight it out on the economic grounds," McCain said.

If McCain really isn’t concerned about his running mate’s impact, well, he’s the one. "59 percent of voters surveyed said Ms. Palin was not prepared for the job, up nine percentage points since the beginning of the month," Michael Cooper and Dalia Sussman write in The New York Times. "And in a possible indication that the choice of Ms. Palin has hurt Mr. McCain’s image, voters said they had much more confidence in Mr. Obama to pick qualified people for his administration than they did in Mr. McCain."

(It’s Obama 51, McCain 40 in the latest NYT/CBS poll.)

Said ABC’s George Stephanopoulos, on "Nightline" Thursday: "When you look at the bottom line, Joe Biden helped Barack Obama with all voters. He made people feel better about Barack Obama. Sarah Palin has hurt John McCain with the broader electorate. It's shown in poll after poll after poll."

Continue reading today's Note by clicking HERE.

ABC News' Hope Ditto contributed to this report.

October 31, 2008 in Ballotwatch, Biden, Joe, Bush, George W., Clinton, Bill, Clinton, Hillary, McCain, John, Obama, Barack, Palin, Sarah, Vote 2008: Democrats, Vote 2008: Republicans, Washington, White House | Permalink | User Comments (48)

The Note: Obama Grabs Control of Race for Close

October 30, 2008 8:52 AM

ABC News' Rick Klein reports in Thursday's Note:

Should we care that . . .

Sarah Palin and Barack Obama are both pondering futures they don’t want to anticipate?

John McCain wants to make the race about another professor (even if he still has Bill Ayers on his mind)?

Plenty of Democratic senators and governors will say nice things about Obama on camera?

Joe Biden is suddenly boring?

Even Borat wants us not to vote (but not really -- and not even for Bob Barr?)?

All of our assumptions just might be dealt atop a house of cards?

For the moment, toss those worries away: Five days out, Obama has wrested control of the race with his typical disciplined style -- and someone’s going to have to scramble to take it from him.

Consider his extraordinary Wednesday evening, framed by 30 minutes of primetime television where Obama did not mention the words “John McCain.” (Can you imagine McCain going on TV for 30 seconds at this stage of the race without mentioning Obama?)

It was gauzy, sad at times, and it was as unusual as a four-inning World Series clincher. It featured too many starry-eyed politicians, and too much cheesy music. It was also masterfully executed. And the fact that it could be done speaks to more than the wallet behind it.

Cognizant of what got him here, and mindful of what might get him there, Obama highlighted not just himself but the idea he represents. It delivers a message on a tactical level, with solutions for all the hot-button issues, yet mostly it works on an inspirational level -- getting voters to believe in something bigger than themselves, which made Obama’s candidacy possible in the first place.

Wednesday may not be the night he clinched anything, but it may end up being the night he made the turn for home. By the time No. 42 finally turned it on for a would-be No. 44, this looked like Obama’s race, with McCain and the rest of us just living in it.

“Every single line during that 30 minutes was something that the campaign knows works and appeals to those undecided voters,” ABC’s George Stephanopoulos reports. “What you saw here was a highly competent, professional, virtuoso performance. The fact that they could go 28 minutes in and hit live to a campaign rally in Florida and right down to the final Obama Biden logo even showed a rising sun. One of the things the campaign knows is that the most optimistic presidential candidate always wins.”

Continue reading today's Note by clicking HERE.

ABC News' Hope Ditto contributed to this report.

October 30, 2008 in Ballotwatch, Biden, Joe, Bush, George W., Clinton, Bill, Clinton, Hillary, McCain, John, Obama, Barack, Palin, Sarah, Vote 2008: Democrats, Vote 2008: Republicans, Washington, White House | Permalink | User Comments (297)

The Note: For a Night, No Avoiding Obama Message

October 29, 2008 8:54 AM

ABC News' Rick Klein reports in Wednesday's Note:

While you’re watching (or not watching) the Great Roadblocked Obama Show over on those other networks -- framed by a “World News” interview, a “Daily Show” appearance, and other entertainment known informally as Late Night with Bill and Barack -- pause to consider the plight of Team McCain six days out.

No cash to respond in kind. No loyalties to enforce kindnesses. No kind of consistent message to refocus the race.

Yet something may shift yet in this campaign -- and that still-softish middle is Sen. Barack Obama’s audience for his unique infomercial Wednesday night.

Maybe this is a silly waste of money and time (and at $3 million and 30 minutes, it a lot of both). Maybe Malia Obama isn’t the only American who wants her programming lineup intact. Maybe this is just too weird, or too boring, or too Ross Perot (one “deep voodoo” reference, and we click), for an electorate to swallow.

(And maybe this is an odd time for Obama to be attacking Gov. Sarah Palin so directly in a TV ad -- wink and all.)

But Wednesday’s primetime buy can be Obama’s most valuable type of forum -- the kind where he gets to look like a president. It’s a fireside-chat moment, in front of that most sacred of American boxes -- Obama’s last best opportunity to appear presidential before he actually might get a chance to be president.

“At times he will speak directly into the camera about his 20-month campaign, at others he will highlight everyday voters, their everyday troubles, and his plans to address them,” writes The New York Times’ Jim Rutenberg, who got to see a one-minute trailer of the 30-minute address.

Rutenberg: “The trailer is heavy in strings, flags, presidential imagery and some Americana filmed by Davis Guggenheim, whose father was the campaign documentarian of Robert F. Kennedy. As the screen flashes scenes of suburban lawns, a freight train and Mr. Obama seated at a kitchen table with a group of white, apparently working-class voters, Mr. Obama says: ‘We’ve seen over the last eight years how decisions by a president can have a profound effect on the course of history and on American lives; much that’s wrong with our country goes back even farther than that.’ ”

Obama continues, “We’ve been talking about the same problems for decades and nothing is ever done to solve them. For the past 20 months, I’ve traveled the length of this country, and Michelle and I have met so many Americans who are looking for real and lasting change that makes a difference in their lives.”

“This is going to be more like a television show, rather than a speech, top Obama campaign officials tell ABC News,” per ABC’s George Stephanopoulos. “We're going to see a ‘lively half-hour of television,’ one Obama aide told ABC News, speaking only half tongue-in-cheek.”

Continue reading today's Note by clicking HERE.

ABC News' Hope Ditto contributed to this report.

October 29, 2008 in Ballotwatch, Biden, Joe, Clinton, Bill, McCain, John, Obama, Barack, Palin, Sarah, Romney, Mitt, Vote 2008: Democrats, Vote 2008: Republicans, Washington, White House | Permalink | User Comments (117)

The Note: McCain Makes Late Turn to Economy

October 28, 2008 8:46 AM

ABC News' Rick Klein reports in Tuesday's Note:

One week out, we know that one of the following equations will produce a number greater than 270 (and only one could possibly approach 370):

Change + Bush + Virginia + Montana + Ground Game + (Air War x 4) + Axelrod - Schmidt - Neiman Marcus - Backbiting - Surprise +/- Biden + Tina Fey

Experience + Liberals + (Bradley x 2) + (Surprise x 3) + Joe the Plumber + Pennsylvania + Schmidt - Axelrod - Bush +/- Palin +/- Bill Clinton

We know every smart mathematician ends up with the same result these days. But we also know every smart conversation ends with the same two words . . . and yet.

And yet . . . it’s just distinctly possible that this election that’s been all about little things may wind up being about the big things (probably not including seven-year-old radio interviews). Things like national security and public corruption and the direction of the nation and, above all, the economy.

It’s a formula that even Sen. John McCain appears comfortable with now: Joe the Plumber himself (finally) hits the trail for him Tuesday, ABC’s Bret Hovell reports, and it’s all about the economy for him, too.

McCain’s latest ad is economic in message, alternating pictures of the candidates (and it’s not hard to figure out which words belong with which man -- and which man looks better in the chosen photographs): “For higher taxes . . . For workin’ Joes . . . Spread your income . . . Keep what's yours . . . A trillion in new spending . . . Freeze spending, eliminate waste . . . Pain for small business . . . Economic growth . . . Risky . . . Proven.”

But who’s really happier with this turn? “Both candidates are focusing their rhetoric increasingly on economic issues -- a main area of concern for voters in the continuing global financial crisis,” Christopher Cooper and Elizabeth Holmes write in The Wall Street Journal.

Said former Lt. Gov. Michael Steele, R-Md.: “In the cloud of this economic turmoil a lot of things often times get lost in translation. . . . It is important for campaigns to step back and reassess and remind.”

One basic problem with a debate like this, this late: “Senator Barack Obama, making what aides called the ‘closing argument’ of his campaign, declared on Monday that it was time to ‘get beyond the old ideological debates.’ And then Mr. Obama and his opponent, Senator John McCain, spent much of the day engaged in just such a debate,” Peter Baker and Michael Cooper write in The New York Times.

Contrast the closing styles: Obama is going broad, with soaring speeches before big crowds -- and McCain is making it all about the attack: liberal vs. conservative, safe vs. risky, the plumber vs. the redistributor.

Continue reading today's Note by clicking HERE.

ABC News' Hope Ditto contributed to this report.

October 28, 2008 in Ballotwatch, Biden, Joe, Bush, George W., McCain, John, Obama, Barack, Palin, Sarah, Romney, Mitt, Vote 2008: Democrats, Vote 2008: Republicans, Washington, White House | Permalink | User Comments (97)

The Note: Plumber Can’t Unclog Race for McCain

October 23, 2008 8:50 AM

ABC News' Rick Klein reports in Thursday's Note:

As the great battle of Joe the Overexposed Plumber vs. Barack the Overspending Campaigner rages on (with Sarah the Overdressed Hockey Mom as sideshow), there’s another game playing out, just over their heads.

Sen. Barack Obama is now in the enviable position of seeking to become president by looking presidential.

Sen. John McCain, meanwhile, knows that he can only become president by making his rival look un-presidential. (Two Joes -- the Plumber and the Senator -- are being enlisted to help.)

It may be a subtle distinction, but it matters for the home stretch. McCain is throwing it all at him now -- taxes and spending and flip-flops and plumbers and terrorism (and terrorists).

A closing argument (at last) comes together: McCain is portraying Obama as too risky to be president.

“He’ll say anything to get elected,” McCain said of Obama Wednesday night, per ABC’s Bret Hovell.

A line that says just as much about where Obama stands: “I feel like we got a righteous wind at our backs here,” Obama said Wednesday in Leesburg, Va., ABC’s Jake Tapper and Sunlen Miller report.

Regardless of the source of that breeze, Obama is in a stage of his campaign where he can ease perceptions of risk just by showing up. (Or not showing up: He’s set to drop off the electoral map for 48 hours, to visit his grandmother in Hawaii after a Thursday morning campaign event in Indianapolis.)

It’s 54-43 in the latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll -- and the portrait of a president begins to emerge.

“Barack Obama has shored up his experience rating to the point where it now surpasses George W. Bush's in 2000 and matches Bill Clinton's in 1992, addressing what has been Obama's greatest vulnerability in the presidential election,” ABC Polling Director Gary Langer writes. “Fifty-six percent of likely voters now say Obama has the experience it takes to serve effectively as president, up from 48 percent after the Republican convention. That's now better than George W. Bush's rating just in advance of the 2000 election.”

“Former secretary of state Colin Powell's endorsement provides a new boost for Obama, who has made significant progress with voters as a leader in international affairs,” per The Washington Post’s Jon Cohen. “But Obama also continues to be lifted by more fundamental advantages, including a 2 to 1 advantage on ‘helping the middle-class.’ ”

Continue reading today's Note by clicking HERE.

ABC News' Hope Ditto contributed to this report.

October 23, 2008 in Ballotwatch, Biden, Joe, Giuliani, Rudy, McCain, John, Obama, Barack, Palin, Sarah, Vote 2008: Democrats, Vote 2008: Republicans, Washington, White House | Permalink | User Comments (232)