Realty Check
Tough talk on all things housing -- booms, busts, bargains and more -- from "Nightline" correspondent Vicki Mabrey
Vicki Mabrey is a correspondent for "Nightline" based in New York. She covers real estate as well as a range of national stories.
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That New House Smell
August 18, 2009 3:37 PM
Want a house built from scratch? Then here's good news for you: The U.S. Commerce Department reports housing starts for July, as well as permits for housing starts, are up. Again. That's the fifth straight month of improvement for single-family housing starts, and the fourth consecutive month for permits. "Everything is tenuous, one month doesn't mean recovery, but these are positive signs," said David Crowe, chief economist for the National Association of Homebuilders.
Speaking by cellphone from Chicago's airport, David said they kind of expected July numbers to rise, because July was pretty much the last month to get shovels in the ground to have a new house ready for those who want to take advantage of of the $8000 first-time buyer tax credit.
But permits are up, too -- in fact, they're up way over housing starts -- 1.7% (490,000 units) for housing starts, versus 5.8% (458,000 units) for permits, which is a very good sign. "The increase in permits anticipates the spark of recovery continuing," David said.
Is that smart, I asked, with more than eight months' worth of housing supply out there? Yes, says David.
"The inventory is in existing houses," he told me, hastening to add that that is indeed competition. But new house inventory is low, and the number of months it takes to sell a new house has dropped. Besides, he added, the new houses are being built in places "where people want to live." Ouch. They're not going into the already-overbuilt foreclosure hotspots of Nevada, Florida, California, Arizona. Look, instead, for the sounds of saws and the smell of sawdust in "Texas and the states that stack up on top of Texas: Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Dakotas, Iowa. Places that didn't suffer as much with the downturn are more ready to respond to the upturn."
The dark cloud here is multi-family housing, which is not getting off the ground (yes, pun intended) at the same rate. That's because the purse strings are still tight on commercial lending, which could be a harbinger of slower starts to come. Those numbers are not nearly so rosy -- tying a record low set in April of this year, down 13.3% to 91,000 units. Multi-family permits fell a ginormous 25.5%, to 102,000 units. At least we know where the challenges lie ahead.
So we welcome the builders back into the market. Let's just not get crazy with it like last time.
August 18, 2009 | Permalink | User Comments (11)
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Good news for builders, first-time buyers and the economy as a whole. Bad news for those of us sitting on "too much house" for our current circumstance, but houses that happen to be "old". My home is 22 years old---not old to me, as my former house is now 90 years old!---but considered old in the market and harder to unload since inventory is still very high. When this begins to move, in my opinion that will be a real sign of a true up-tic in the economy.
Posted by: Jana | Aug 18, 2009 3:44:13 PM
Do I read this correctly - people want to live in a new house in Oklahoma?
Posted by: kurt | Aug 18, 2009 3:45:48 PM
Hopefully things will spread out from these areas to the rest of the country.
Posted by: Jed | Aug 18, 2009 3:52:11 PM
We keep hearing about yet another wave of foreclosures on the near horizon, this time affecting prime loan holders much more than sub-prime. Granted, California is the poster child for the housing bubble rupture, but between the escalating unemployment rate and new foreclosures, the mantra of our friends in real estate is to 'wait, just wait' because it's not going to get better anytime soon.
Posted by: Darren | Aug 18, 2009 4:04:25 PM
Just bought a duplex. Getting it ready for living. Had some 'unexpected plumbing problems' that have prevented me from moving in by now. By the time I move in, all the money I saved for furniture and toys such as th 50 in. big screen will have been used for pipes. That's ok. I'll get into it soon. Looking to get something else this Spring ..... if I've got enough pennies.
Posted by: Bruce Bennett | Aug 18, 2009 5:52:41 PM
I moved into this house 35 years ago, and I don't intend to move. I don't care how much its worth, either. Upturn, downturn, but not upside down - don't do this house buying thing so lightly. Move where you have access to multiple opportunities for the work you enjoy. Of course you have to pick a profession that allows some flexability.
eEveryone gets just one chance to do llife correctly, so enjoy the house you're in.
Posted by: soularddave | Aug 18, 2009 11:54:56 PM
I'm with soularddave. A house is for living in. It's a home, not a bus stop on the way to something "better."
My house will be 100 years old in 2011. With the original furnace, still going strong!! And, of course, plaster walls, 9-foot ceilings, excellent insulation, kick-ass construction details, hardwood floors, leaded glass, oak mantels, and all the other beautiful Arts and Crafts touches you'd expect. I've been living here for 24 years and intend to stay for the rest of my life. I wouldn't take a brand new drywall house for all the money in the world.
Posted by: LIsa Simeone | Aug 19, 2009 11:31:17 AM
The root cause of the housing problem (and most other problems) is overcrowding in the United States. We need to shore up our borders and get population headed back down, ultimately to 150 million, at which level this country had become full.
The builders should refocus on upgrading and replacing homes in already-built areas and not consuming more land to cover with homes to support yet more overcrowding in this country. We need to reduce population and improve the homes these people live in, not build any more new ones.
Posted by: Proud Native American and Angry Independent Voter | Aug 19, 2009 12:23:11 PM
I definitely like the architectural details of older homes, but when small children are involved there are other things to consider like school districts and safety.
Posted by: Lesley | Aug 20, 2009 1:18:37 PM
My home was built in 1902 three brick thick common walls storefront with loft apartment above its not huge but big enough at 23x1000x 3 floor split leveled in 1942 i have charicter in that no two floors have a steady celing heigh the tallest celing is 11 ft the shortest is a closet thats 23x50 by 6' so yes for a single guy i have plenty of storage. while i dont have extream utlity bills the place is wired three phase 240/208 heat last year cost a bit under 500 dollars for the year but thats is due to common firewalls with neighbors beats insulation to have it heated n cooled by them as well as me when we had poweroutage in the ice storm my coldest night with NO heat added was 45 deg with 16 deg outside single dwelling houses lost plumbing and had frozen water pipes I survived just fine in my little place. while i may not have hundreds of thousands tied up in the structure i would not trade it for a ranch house with the same square footage the utlitys would kill me price wise. The three phase system is so much more cost effective than a 240 single phase unit as long as you keep your amperage load ballanced its more efficient use of the power. I am currently converting to LED lighting where i can get 90 watts of incandesant lighting power for about 6 watts actual use bulbs cost about 15 dollars each but they run for less than a third of the cost thats how to be efficient and keep the polution down if you MUST use a non green power source.
Posted by: D Ratliff | Aug 20, 2009 1:36:15 PM
After almost 2 year of recession final we get some neutral data from manufacturing and housing side. But the it will continue for the next one more year hope it going to end soon and we will see the bright sun again in the sky.
Posted by: Nits | Nov 7, 2009 3:38:28 PM
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