Ned Potter is the science correspondent for ABC's "World News with Charles Gibson." He has reported on such topics as space exploration, the human genome and climate change.
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Just Warming Up
April 30, 2007 4:44 PM
Thanks for your thoughts about this site--and please keep them coming. I'd missed the Rachael Ray investigation...or whatever it is.
As I said at the outset, we knew there would be bugs--we just didn't know what they'd be. John Allen Paulos' column is certainly supposed to be there, and eighty-two gazillon people are on the case. We've also had a few pained laughs over "related stories" that aren't really. It's a work in progress.
We also take to heart people's comments about content being more important than form. I've been at a lot of meetings in the last few days, with people reminding everyone that if we're not doing good reporting, it doesn't matter how sleek our graphics are.
But enough--on to some news.
There's a paper in tomorrow's issue of Geophysical Research Letters, one of the major journals on climate research, which says Arctic sea ice is melting more quickly than computer models suggested. The work was led by Julienne Stroeve of the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
Here's what I've been sent by the American Geophysical Union, which publishes the journal:
"WASHINGTON -- Arctic sea ice is melting at a significantly faster rate than projected by even the most advanced computer models, a new study concludes. A comparison of newly available observational data to the results of numerous simulations indicates that,
during the past 50 years, Arctic sea ice has been disappearing about three times faster than the average rate of loss that computer models have shown."Because of the disparity between actual observations and the models, the shrinking of summertime ice is about 30 years ahead of climate model projections, the researchers conclude. As a result, the Arctic could be seasonally free of sea ice earlier than
recently projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC timeframe for ice-free conditions is any time from 2050 to well beyond 2100."
Now, global-climate computer models have been off before. (Some differing discussion HERE and HERE.) But usually they've been accused of predicting terrible things that weren't happening. Here's the reverse--the models seem to be behind--and Stroeve and her team suggest they've been underestimating the effect of carbon dioxide levels on the Arctic climate.
As has been done before, they were testing the computer models by having them "predict" the past. The models, on average, said that between 1953 and 2006, Arctic ice in September ought to have declined by 2.5 percent per decade. Actual data, from satellites, ships and planes, showed a 7.8 percent decline.
One more line from the AGU's writeup: "Whereas the models indicate that about half of the ice loss from 1979 to 2006 was due to increased greenhouse gases, and the other half due to natural variations in the climate system, the new study indicates that greenhouse gases may be playing a significantly greater role."
This is contentious stuff. Thoughts welcome, as always.
April 30, 2007 | Permalink | Share | User Comments (18)
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I'd always thought that the ice would melt faster than what the computers showed, because honestly it's pretty obvious that things happened faster than what the computers had predicted in the past. But I had no idea that they where that much under! We realy need to do something, and fast, I mean just think about all the wonderful places in this world that are giong to be flooded with the water from the glaciers!
Posted by: Isabelle | Apr 30, 2007 7:21:07 PM
So, how long will it be before we have a nice balmy Venus-like climate? I'm a fan of the near-term desertification trend myself; maybe I should intern with a nice Bedouin tribe sometime in the near future, get those basic survival skills down.
Posted by: Eli | May 1, 2007 12:41:40 AM
There is probably more to it than meets the eye. Remember that the wikings actually were farming in Greenland without the greenhouse effect. The natural variations are probably much larger than is currently accepted. The effect of the sun on earth needs much more investigation IMHO.
Posted by: John | May 1, 2007 5:07:15 AM
The text says the models have been erroneous over the last 50 years. Shouldn't they have improved the models by now? Am I reading that right?
I also thought one of the results of the arctic ice melting was flooding in coastal cities. If we are really 30 years ahead of predictions, why aren't cities underwater?
Posted by: Wes | May 1, 2007 8:41:59 AM
It's always worthwhile to know that the comments which we leave are actually being read and discussed by everyone concerned at ABC News. I especially applaud your and ABC News' rededication to comprehensive, in-depth reporting as opposed to flashy graphics and insubstantial "eye candy," which seem to be the hallmarks of other so-called "news" websites (I won't mention their names, but they know who they are!). It seems to me that the new redesign is much like coming home to find the furniture rearranged in your living room: you may have to do some searching for that favorite armchair, but the chances are good that it's in a better place than it used to be.
Once again, Ned, many thanks for the additional links (I never knew there was a National Snow and Ice Data Center, much less that they have a web site, too!). It certainly appears that the computer models now in use concerning climate change need to be improved a great deal, and I have to wonder whether scientists are in the process of doing so. Still, even with their flawed forecasts, the models still point to increased warming, signs that we can ill afford to ignore.
Posted by: chuck | May 1, 2007 8:58:02 AM
I do not argue tht we need to be doing many thingsto address the melting and global warming - but shouldn't we also be planning and attempting to deal with the potential incraease in sea levels? Has anyone considered the possibility of moving to large scale de-salinization to use this increase in water volume to address the droughts etc and the rapid growth of water demand. Perhaps there is a silver lining? Perhaps not..
Posted by: Charles Killam | May 1, 2007 9:05:27 AM
And what of the island people in the Pacific Ocean nations? They're going to be more impacted than coastal cities. They have no "inland" to retreat to. When I was a boy, I spent 14 months on the island of Kwajalein - 7 feet above sea level. Of course, then I knew nothing of rising sea levels. Seven feet isn't much of a margin.
Posted by: Andy | May 1, 2007 9:16:06 AM
"Rachael" Ray above is misspelled.
Posted by: chuck | May 1, 2007 10:29:23 AM
Thank you, Chuck. Rachael Ray WAS misspelled, but is now corrected.
--Ned
Posted by: Ned Potter | May 1, 2007 10:40:09 AM
So if this is true and the artic has melted 30 years ahead of schedule then we would be seeing the effects of that thirty years ahead of schedule, right? So checking on Al Gores predictions, and many of the other "scientists" like him, New York City should be 4 feet under water right now. How come it isn't?
Posted by: Jon Daly | May 1, 2007 10:44:12 AM
Kinda expected this to happen. Those people who are against global warming just go a wake-up call, didn't they?
Posted by: Jedediah Wiseman | May 1, 2007 12:40:11 PM
Melting Arctic SEA ice does not contribute to sea level rise (much like a melting ice cube doesn't cause your glass to overflow). Ice from LAND-based glaciers (i.e. those in Greenland and Antarctica) falls into the sea and in turn, raise sea level.
Posted by: Dan | May 1, 2007 1:25:44 PM
Dan, you're right on the money; no amount of melting SEA ice will cause sea levels to rise. However, it does make me nervous to see that much cold water being dumped into the mix.
Over 40 years ago, when I was still in school, one of the profs in our geology department off-handedly mentions the Labrador Current and its warming effects. He got my interest peaked and I did some independent research and reached a conclusion that still keeps me awake some nights - if the global climate warmed only a few degrees the cold water pouring south would effectively shut down this "conveyor belt" of warmth, and cause much of the northern hemispere to experience mini-ice-age winters and shortened growing seasons.
When I shared the research and my hypothesis with the department I was assured of two things: 1) global warming on the scale necessary for this to happen was very unlikely, and; 2) even if it happened it would be so gradual that the impact on the Labrador would be minimal - it could and would adjust to the very slow increase in south-flowing cold water.
Now, my nightmares are likely to get worse. I have read some recent articles that have reached the same conclusions as a freshman geology major did in '66 (although to be honest, others still disagree vehemently with this scenario). Still, if the warming trend continues and we start getting a lot of cold FRESH water dumped into the mix, it could easily happen - and this report is one more piece of evidence indicating that the level of warming needed is indeed happening.
I'm worried.
Posted by: Walker Evans | May 1, 2007 1:44:03 PM
There is a problem that will ALWAYS exist until its way too late. Most people, like us, believe that some major changes have to be made NOW! But, Governments and big businesses (especially Oil) DO NOT want any type of changes to affect their "approval ratings" or profits (in the case of Oil Co.'s)
I am tying my best to help. I recycle, drive way less, change my bulbs in the house and am looking into a Smartcar for my next vehicle. I am not saying I am a model citizen for changing to save the planet, but if we all pitch in a little....we CAN help!
Posted by: JohnnyD | May 1, 2007 2:45:01 PM
So we have global warming...oh duh. The world has been warming since the last ice age 10k years ago. Think the first inhabitants of North America were thinking the retreat of the glaciers which forged the Great Lakes was caused by their cars? Study the sun folks.
Posted by: Dave W. | May 1, 2007 3:58:11 PM
Everytime I hear of something new being discovered by melting ice/snow, such as the "Ice man" I wonder how the hell did he get under all that snow to begin with. Hmmm. By the way, stock up on those florescent light bulbs, they save energy. To bad they contain mercury. Who's gonna clean up that mess in the landfills 50 years from now?
Posted by: What a crock | May 1, 2007 5:52:07 PM
The discrepancy between the prediction and reality just shows that we don't know as much about the cause as we think we do. I agree that the data shows recent warming, but until the modelling proves things out correctly, I don't care how certain the "experts" think they are.
Posted by: jpwagco | May 2, 2007 12:39:09 PM
I have been listing to the Global Warming issue for many years. Yes, I am concerned, but I am having a real problem with where the blame is being placed. I am not a scientist, but I use logic, observation and reading to form some ideas that we should be talking about in the news. I have learned that since May 1, 2007, there have been approximately 22 volcanoes that have become active. Since Feb., 2006 approximately 83 volcanoes have become active and that there are more than 500 active volcanoes in the Pacific Ocean. NOW, my point is that all of this activity in and around the Pacific Ocean must be warming up the water tamperature alot. So, how is changing fuel sources going to make that much difference? If you research the waming of the atmosphere and sea waters over the past years, look at the damaged that the gases, destruction of land mass, animal habitat and etc. that volcanoes had an effect on these areas. Which by the way sets off a chain of effects thoughout mother nature. To some up one thing that man does, ie. automobiles, can match the destructiveness of mother nature herself.
Posted by: James C. | May 14, 2007 11:54:41 AM
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