Hurricane Post-Mortem

Yeah, I remember when hurricanes used to be real hurricanes every time. What do you think? Do you think people can predict the weather? Talk about a depression, that has got to be the most depressing belief ever. I have a new one, see if you can try to predict where lightning is going to strike!

Years ago, when I subscribed to Popular Science, there was an article about Dr. Gray and his formula for predictions of hurricanes. Briefly, though the formula was better than a full sentence long, the input to calculate this formula properly came from many different sources around the world in the northern hemisphere; ocean temps, surface and deep current changes, Africa deserts weather patterns, etc. I was impressed to say the least. Since then, I have watched this formula in action and I have to say nothing else compares to Dr. Gray's predictions. As far as crying wolf for this years misses, it would be an insult to say the capabilities of our meteorological science is not what it should be; quite the opposite, they have surpassed it. All they need now is the fine tuning and keep it current. Good job!

Dear experts, these are the only words you should announce next June: In between 1907 and 2007, there had been on average 5 hurricans (e.g.) per year. We really do not know during this coming season, there will be 8 or 2 hurricanes hitting US. Just prepare for it.

Couldn't guess the weather huh? Still can't make good hurricane forecasts for a season, yet long range global warming models are far more accurate? Come on!

As long as we keep our place and realize that only the Lord is God to know what the weather will be. Weather is one of the most inaccurate of Sciences since the beginning of time. Weather can hardly be predicted for the following day, much less five or ten days from now or as in this case, a year from now. Get real.

After all of the ABC global warming hype and the predictions that the last two years would see substantial increases in the numbers of hurricanes, are we to get from ABC no admission that they were wrong (at least on the hurricanes of the last two years) and were the too-willing stooges of political agenda driven global warming alarmists? How about at least doing a somewhat nonbiased article about Weather Channel founder John Coleman's article calling global warming the "Greatest Scam in History?" ABC, have you no shame?

Hasn't there now been two years in a row, where there were predicted to be a greater than average number of hurricanes - and they would hit the U.S.? And both years they were wrong. And didn't all the global warming "enthusiasts" embrace these predictions as proof that man is causing global warming? And we're supposed to believe in man made global warming... why?????

As I type this comment from my Biloxi, MS home, which suffered tremendous damage and became inhabitable for 8 months from Hurricane Katrina, advance seasonal predictions serve no purpose. We pay more attention to weather reports as real storms develop. The hurricane center could project 20 hurricanes and it would not matter, because God controls the weather. For the past two years, He has protected the coast and New Orleans, as we rebuild. The Hurricane Center is great at providing tracking information for real storms, and their accuracy at doing so has saved countless lives. We follow their advice closely. What really matters is the path and strength of existing storms; not seasonal projections.

Weather prediction is not an exact science. Think of it a little more like palm ready with a little math & physics tossed in. As a consequence, don't expect accurate predictions 6 months in advance. Weather two days in advance can barely be predicted. Also, why is the media so hush about what quieter hurricane seasons means about global warming? With the storms of 2005, everyone was blaming it all on global warming, now there's deafening silence. The GIS reclassified (e.g. recalculated averages) and learned some of their recent data on warming was wrong - there were FEWER warmer years in the past ten years then thought.

of course there are fewer hurricanes than predicted. A. they over predict to prepare people. B. the water is cooling down because the ice caps are melting (because of global warming), when the sun heats that water up again, as it will because there's no longer ice there to deflect the heat back into space, then we'll be seeing the bigger and stronger hurricanes.

katie, Are you saying that they are crying wolf now to make us pay more attention at some undetermined date in the future? That really doesn't make any sense to me.

hey hey what what do ya say the mighty broncos are on their way straight to the top we cant be stoped hey hey what do ya say

Predictions are just that- predictions... the public gets mad when the experts say "I don't know", which is perhaps the most honest statement in science and a sure path to wisdom. This is a trait least shared by the typical consumer who'd rather risk all of civilization as long as it keeps the money flowing.

Look, we may have been spared this season and thank our lucky stars that the forcasters were wrong... I'm sure they're just as glad as we were. But, one would be wise to prepare regardless. I wonder if anyone remembers the old phrase: "It's better to have it and not need it than to need it and not have it."

These STUPID inept WRONG predictions were used as an EXCUSE for the oil companies to drive up the price of oil and gas this summer because of the "FEAR" of oil shortages …. They should keep their big mouths SHUT if they cant get it right !!!!! These inept predictions do affect the economy of our county !!!

There are more factors than just warm temperatures involved in the formation of hurricanes. Not only do you need warm ocean waters, but you also need minimum vertical shear, sufficient instability of the atmosphere, high enough mid-tropospheric relative humidity, existing relative vorticity...
Therefore, fewer hurricanes than predicted doesn't disprove global warming, it just proves that all the parameters needed are changing with climate change, and warm oceans aren't the only thing that matters.
Also, this quote from the article above seems wrong:
"Their winds were high enough to make them tropical storms, says Frank, but their central pressure, another measure of a storm's strength, was too low."
Lower central pressure of a storm is indicative of a more intense hurricane.

My only real complaint is that now they have started giving names to 'SUB-tropical' storms. What are they trying to do, pad their named storm count just to make the predictions look better?

OK, OK, one more complaint. The way they get away with revising ther predictions as the season progresses. I say one prediction and only one.

Thats all from me. :-)

There's an old saying: It doesn't pay a prophet to be too specific. Looks like that's what we have here. I think it means that the forecasters need to develop a new language.

there is No global warming,,,,,

Oh, well if rick says so, I'm convinced!