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Ned Potter is the science correspondent for ABC's "World News with Charles Gibson." He has reported on such topics as space exploration, the human genome and climate change.

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The Changing Face of America

February 11, 2008 1:13 PM

Pew_population_graphic_21108 "If current trends continue," says the Pew Research Center, "the population of the United States will rise to 438 million in 2050...and 82% of the increase will be due to immigrants arriving from 2005 to 2050 and their U.S.-born descendants...."

The full report, "U.S. Population Projections: 2005-2050," released today, is HERE.  Click on the graph to make it slightly clearer.

Other points they make:

"--The Latino population, already the nation’s largest minority group, will triple in size and will account for most of the nation’s population growth from 2005 through 2050. Hispanics will make up 29% of the U.S. population in 2050, compared with 14% in 2005.

"--The non-Hispanic white population will increase more slowly than other racial and ethnic groups; whites will become a minority (47%) by 2050.

"--The nation’s elderly population will more than double in size from 2005 through 2050, as the baby-boom generation enters the traditional retirement years. The number of working-age Americans and children will grow more slowly than the elderly population, and will shrink as a share of the total population."

The opening phrase is key, of course -- "If current trends continue" -- but if they do, they suggest a more diverse and older America. 


(Graph from Pew Research Center.)

February 11, 2008 | Permalink | Share | User Comments (134)

User Comments

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One can't help but wonder if the Native American demographers made similar projections for population shifts for the plains, where inroads were made by the Sioux, the Ojibway, and others. It would seem that the only rationale for these studies is to find out who will spend how much on what. The only other reason I can think of is about who will assimilate into a culture and who will be assimilated by another culture. I seem to remember reading somewhere that the Normans invaded Ireland and were never heard from again.

Posted by: Andy | Feb 11, 2008 2:11:02 PM

When I was a student at the National Autonomoous University of Mexico in Mexico City in the summer of 1973, I and a group of friends were interviewed by a very professional, well-spoken middle-aged man as to our opinions on the rate of Mexican immigration into the US. We knew such immigration was happening, but not at what rate, so we answered as honestly as we possibly could. We believed this man was some university official and thought nothing more about this until the next day. You can imagine our astonishment when a group picture of us students appeared on the front page of a very popular tabloid newspaper, loudly proclaiming that Chicanos--people of Mexican descent--would take power in the US within seven years!

Since then, I've been somewhat leery of such predictions, treating them as academic exercises. They're almost never fulfilled because "current trends" DIDN'T continue the way the analysts thought. I have no expectations that this academic exercise will have any different results.

Posted by: chuck | Feb 11, 2008 2:30:24 PM

Good thing we're all Americans!

Posted by: Gerald | Feb 11, 2008 2:43:24 PM

And we'll all be speaking Spanish in 50 years too, I'm sure, all because big business bowed to a large immigrant group who didn't want to learn English, so said big businesses wrote all their instructions, packaging, store signs, etc in Spanish. Sure, many of us have [legal] immigrant ancestors, but those ancestors had to learn English to deal here. Not anymore. Way to go, America, letting our common language (and hence our identity) go by the wayside. I'm so embarassed.

Posted by: moi | Feb 11, 2008 2:49:06 PM

1780 - "US German Population to Triple"
1840 - "US Irish Population to Triple"
1860 - "US Chinese Population to Triple"
1890 - "US Italian Population to Triple"
1910 - "US Polish Population to Triple"

Posted by: D | Feb 11, 2008 2:53:19 PM

Glad I won't be around then....

Posted by: Mike | Feb 11, 2008 2:53:52 PM

Well, I guess I have to learn Spanish.

Posted by: Noah | Feb 11, 2008 2:55:50 PM

I feel the same way Gerald does, I mean even my package of toilet paper is written in Spanish. If you don't know what it is regardless of language, I feel sorry for you and if you want to be here, you should be able to hold a half was descent conversation in English. My grandparents did in a local high school at night after working all day, they were not ivy league people, but they did what was expected of them.....the difference is that no one expects these people to do anything.

Posted by: TimTom | Feb 11, 2008 3:00:04 PM

the biggest indicator of population growth is maternal age. And the biggest indicator of maternal age is education and income. Women who have more education have babies later, have less babies and their babies have babies later. The population that is least educated always grows the fastest. I remember studying this in college socioeconomics class. It's obvious that whites will be a minority. It has been for some time, unless, hispanics move their class up and then they too will start having less babies and start having them later in life. WHen the Irish first started streaming into the US there were fears of an Irish dominance rather than the more refined English which used ot dominate. Now hte most predominate race in the US is Irish. the English have been gone as the predominate race for about a hundred years. Just the irish blended so well no one noticed.

Posted by: jessboston | Feb 11, 2008 3:02:28 PM

I wonder if all the whites start flooding Mexico, would the government bow down like the US has to all the hispanics? Think they would change the language to English? It's sad that there are NO politicians who have the guts to do something about this.

Posted by: L. Jones | Feb 11, 2008 3:04:06 PM

to the one who posted about the irish population tripling...it did. and then some. The most predominate ancestry for an american is Irish. We are more Irish than English. WE have been for about a hundred years.

Posted by: jessboston | Feb 11, 2008 3:04:47 PM

This is why immigration needs to be addressed immediately and have stricter border control, etc.

Posted by: meg | Feb 11, 2008 3:09:07 PM

D's post brings up and illustrates a point, namely, that those statements represent observations made as a spike in immigration occurred. That's what passes for "current trends" in today's idiom, and it's patently obvious that they were made in a panic, because of the sudden influx of a particular nationality at a given point in time. Well, take my word for it, the sky isn't falling. How will the situation be viewed when the immigration situation is finally straightened out? Most likely, panic will subside and rational thought will again prevail, and the same number of people will immigrate, but it's all calmed down and the "current trend" will be normal.

Posted by: Andy | Feb 11, 2008 3:12:44 PM

Language is the least of our worries. Gangs, crime and welfare x 3.

Posted by: Lori | Feb 11, 2008 3:17:11 PM

Thank God for small .. well, BIG favors! I won't be around then .. that's a beautiful thing! Enjoy!!

Posted by: Bruce | Feb 11, 2008 3:20:15 PM

Too many baby's mamas.. Time to move to Czechoslovakia

Posted by: bart | Feb 11, 2008 3:21:40 PM

I pretty liberal when it comes to politics, but even I am against all these illegal immigrants.

Like Lori said, I'm worried about gangs, welfare, and the state of my neighborhood.

Posted by: koua | Feb 11, 2008 3:22:29 PM

We're in a downward slide. Immigration without assimilation spells disaster and this country will become another Bosnia or Iraq with diverse racial and ethnic groups fighting for power.

Posted by: Jay | Feb 11, 2008 3:23:53 PM

I don't understand why we have laws if our government isn't going to follow through and toss them out.

Posted by: katie | Feb 11, 2008 3:24:27 PM

assimilation.

What a joke that word has become.

Posted by: koua | Feb 11, 2008 3:28:35 PM

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