Ned Potter is the science correspondent for ABC's "World News with Charles Gibson." He has reported on such topics as space exploration, the human genome and climate change.
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Anyone Out There? Maybe Not
April 18, 2008 8:05 AM
In 1961 a young radio astronomer named Frank Drake came up with a formula to estimate how many planets in our galaxy may be home to intelligent life.
It became known as the Drake Equation, and when its inventor factored in the number of stars, the percentage likely to have planets around them, the percentage of those planets likely to be right for life, and so forth, he concluded the universe must be teeming with sentient beings.
The Drake Equation looks like this...
...and there's an explanation of the variables in it HERE. Take a look at the calculator on the right (or at THIS ONE) if you want to play exobiologist yourself. If you're like Drake, you'll conclude that there are myriad civilizations out there trying to get in touch with us.
But are there? We haven't heard from them, hard as Drake and his colleagues have worked at SETI, the Search for ExtraTerrestrial Intelligence.
Now comes Dr. Andrew Watson, a climate scientist at the University of East Anglia in Great Britain, who says the odds of finding beings like us elsewhere is very, very low -- perhaps as little as 0.01 percent over the four billion years that a given planet like ours is likely to be friendly to life. (Hat tip to Tuan Nguyen of our staff for catching this.)
Watson is hardly alone in his belief; Don Brownlee and Peter Ward wrote a book called "Rare Earth" in 2000, in which they argued that our planet was extremely unusual--not only did it have liquid water, not only was it the right size to hold an atmosphere, but it also had a giant neighbor (Jupiter) to draw away asteroids and other debris that might otherwise have pummeled it as the Solar System formed. Find a good discussion with them, Drake and others, HERE.
The factor Watson introduces to the argument is that, as he argues, there's a finite window for life on Earth--and we came into being relatively late in that window. The Sun is slowly growing in intensity (no, lest we digress in that direction, not enough to explain the warming of recent decades), so that Earth has "only" (his quotes, not mine) about a billion years before it gets fried.
"Structurally complex life is separated from prokaryotes [probably the Earth's first living cells] by several very unlikely steps and, hence, will be much less common than prokaryotes," he writes in the journal Astrobiology. "Intelligence is one further unlikely step, so it is much less common still."
The full text of Watson's paper is HERE. And there's a writeup from the University HERE.
Bummer, eh? But Dr. Drake's disciples at SETI keep up their work, funded largely by such benefactors as the Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen. Maybe someday they will prove the Watsons of the world wrong.
April 18, 2008 | Permalink | Share | User Comments (74)
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Get off this rock! We know it isn't going to last forever, and if we want to live beyond our birth planet, then we have to find another place to go...or we all die. It's just that simple.
Posted by: Dave | Apr 18, 2008 3:02:50 PM
The problem is scientists are looking for life as we KNOW it. Suppose there is life as we DON'T know it? While rocks on Earth aren't alive, perhaps they are on another planet.
Posted by: marco123 | Apr 18, 2008 3:16:34 PM
Isn't .01 percent still millions of planets?
Posted by: curious | Apr 18, 2008 3:52:43 PM
I read Rare Earth and promptly threw it in the trash. Brownlee and Ward seem to think that the absence of an observation is proof that something is not possible. This is not how science works.
Posted by: deafasapost | Apr 18, 2008 5:42:52 PM
Ok, so there's little chance of their being life on another planet. But isn't it pretty much IMPOSSIBLE for earth to be the only planet that can support life??? Maybe there's a planet that supports life, but the beings there don't need air or water or something. But there is no possible way that we're the only planet that has life, sorry to say. And I agree with Don...
Posted by: Switch | Apr 18, 2008 5:48:06 PM
I think we might be able to answer that question sooner or later, if we are determined enough. We wouldn't have to look all that far, only 20 lightyears away. Gliese 581c and Gliese 581d.
Two planets that are within the star's habital zone and are deemed earth-like. As noted earlier, they are only 20 lightyears away, very very close.
The estimated temperatures of Gliese 581c are estimated to range between 32º and 104ºF, very comfortable and very very similar to earth.
Life could exist there pretty easy. Could we? Probably not - their gravity is stronger due to having more mass. It is said it is only 50% larger than us but 5 times more massive.
For some fun - the Superman movies that aired on tv broadcast 25 or so years ago should have reached them. You know, the whole red sun planet (Krypton) and comming to a yellow sun planet (Earth) and having super power thing.
Posted by: Mike | Apr 18, 2008 7:01:07 PM
I believe there is life on other planets, and think that it is selfish of man to think that we are the only ones. Who says that those life forms must be human-like? Are the people of this planet as a whole ready to accept that there is other life elsewhere? Are they intellectually ready to actually meet intelligent beings from another planet and converse with them?With so many unwilling and not ready to accept that there is a God, how can they be ready to accept beings possibly many millions or billions of years more advanced than we are?
Posted by: Debbie | Apr 18, 2008 7:07:47 PM
My personal opinion differs. I even disagree with Professor Hawking on this topic. I say that over the coming years the following will be evident, even more evident than they are now:
1. As the resolution of telescopes improves it will turn out that nearly every star has its own system of planets. I base that on the fact that with our limited abilities now, most stars that we can look at closely enough and given that many systems of planets will be tilted at an angle relative to us that we can't detect the wobble in their parent starsugeests this statement as likely true.
2. Nearly all of these systems of planets will have at least one planet, or system of moons around a planet in a zone with liquid water.
3. Forming planets as they cool upon reaching the correct temperature spawn life fairly rapidly. I base this opinion on the idea with the fact that trillions of chemical reactions occur in even a small amount of water per second. Any substantial mass with the correct energy inputs and chemical composition should again fairly rapidly produce the useful building blocks that will be used for life.
4. Even if life under the right conditions is very unlikely, the number of chances for it to occur suggests that the probability is close to 1.
5. Once life and the competition for resources begin, the probability of intelligent life eventually is also nearly 1.
6. Dr. Hawking when asked if there is intelligent life in the Milky Way did not answer that question. He stated that it is unlikely that there is life within a few hundred light years of Earth. This I also question for several reasons. We might not be all that interesting to people that might be even say 100 million years more advanced than we are. Also, if one examines the direction of technology, they could probably make certain that we could not detect them if for some reason that did not want to be seen. Furthermore, the fastest idea that we forsee in the future that is as certainty for interstellar travel will be matter-antimatter engines. If that is all there is then space travel may be very expensive, rare and slow.
7. The statement that SETI has detected nothing means nothing. We may currently think that we have been studying the correct wavelengths of clear communication between the stars, but that might be wrong, or an intelligent species may learn that to advertise their presence might be a bad idea.
Those are just for starters some things to comtemplate. Just as one last thought: Since intelligent life in some sence exists here it is more probably typical, because it happened at all, than atypical which alone begs the interesting question: how typical is life? ...so let's go find out!
Posted by: Zachary Pesold | Apr 18, 2008 7:10:15 PM
I read a few years ago that if our own instruments were aimed at earth they could only pick up our stray signals from 100 light years away. Only 100 light years away. So if life at our level is out there it needs to be within 100 light years. That's nothing.
Posted by: Marc C levine | Apr 18, 2008 7:19:06 PM
I beleive God made our planet special and that there are no more like it in the universe. He truly is awesome!
Posted by: Briana | Apr 18, 2008 7:55:44 PM
Life is very rare?
No kidding? Try "impossible".
Life is a creation in itself. We have millions of such life forms to account for each one of which is an impossibility.
Evolution did not make any of these life forms. Who did? You don't suppose it was God do you? You know, the One that visited us and took our sins on Himself, carried them away, forgave us and sent us His Spirit of truth to convince us of everything (sin righteousness and judgment).
Posted by: PQQAm | Apr 18, 2008 8:17:53 PM
I find it inappropriate for a scientific forum to be used to espouse religious testimonials.
Don't get me wrong here. I value deeply held religious beliefs.
I with humility ask writers to consider that the direction of a scientific forum should be science. Advancing one's religion or feeling the need to shout out "The good word" is off topic. There are many excellent avenues to pursue one's religion instead of disrupting scientific discussion.
Now, addressing those that feel passionately that all forums are appropriate to show the exuberence of their beliefs, let's understand that scientific discussion is not here to discount your beliefs. We don't know mathematically how the universe came to be or exactly how it is constructed yet. We are simply pursuing the mathematics to completely understand it..and it is likely that we will.
Not today or tomorrow, but with persaverance in the future we will understand.
If one is one is feeling that religious discussion is obligatory in all forums, I will be happy to hear your thoughts but tranferred to a religious discussion group, not here.
Respectfully,
Zachary L. Pesold
Posted by: Zachary L. Pesold | Apr 18, 2008 9:07:10 PM
I have great difficulty imagining how humans would decide which off-Earth creatures were intelligent. For a life form that uses pheromones to communicate, we would seem very noisy and stupid. The data is not all in about all the creatures that live HERE. Learn to speak Elephant or Whale. They might surprise you with what they think of us. They DO think. We have intelligent life right here that we don't bother with at all. Why should anywhere else be any different.
Posted by: Marie Zarankevich | Apr 18, 2008 10:30:38 PM
(Quote)I think that there is a reason we were endowed w/ intelligence...perhaps to eventually be masters of an empty (of life) universe. Perhaps we will be the ones to introduce life to other planets, and spread it throughout the galaxies. I'm a firm believer that everything, including our intelligence, has a purpose.
~ok...maybe I'm just drifting into sci-fi mode....but wouldn't that be awesome?(Quote)
Yes, the human race is intelligent to a degree, but right now we are in a "diseased state" so to speak, and no I don't think to spread our intelligence throughout the universe in this "diseased state" we are in would be a good thing at all. It would be when we are cleansed of the disease. By "diseased state" I mean that this world we are presently living in is evil, and man is being held captive by it. There is so much hatred, murder, theft, lying, greed, illness, cheating, ignorance, etc., and not nearly enough love and compassion. It is a cold and cruel world, and this would definitely not be a good thing to spread around the universe. When we are cleansed of this then yes the intelligence God gave us will be a wonderful thing to teach, but not until then.
Posted by: Debbie | Apr 19, 2008 12:43:09 AM
If Science wanted to get at the facts, they could get there so much faster if they placed more value on the historical record found in Scripture.
It is clear and obvious to me that there is absolutely no evidence to support evolution. I could have told you that life on other planets was mathematically impossible (without a Creator) without the use of a high powered computer.
Scientists are just not being realistic and they are not facing the facts because of their preconceived beliefs in a false belief and teaching called evolution. It is the same false teaching that is forced on children in our public schools.
There is nothing wrong with teaching history that was actually written down by reliable historians. And the Bible has proven to be very reliable.
Posted by: PQQAm | Apr 19, 2008 2:22:10 AM
As a species this makes a big difference when it comes to our perspective of the future. As individuals it is irrelevant since our perceptive life span is typically less than 100 years. Our individual motivators for the future have always been in what our posterity will add upon what we have accomplished. If we are not already a creation of another species then we have the potential to become the creators or ancestors of new ones. Sound familiar?
Posted by: MBell_TX | Apr 19, 2008 2:29:19 AM
.....God did a good thing......
Posted by: Jesse James | Apr 19, 2008 6:18:13 AM
Just look at how many different life forms there are on this planet alone. Life it seems, grows like a weed, in abundance and varied extremely. Especially the insect world...look how many species of insects there are and how different they appear. I can see why some who've claimed to have had a close encounter of the third kind say, "They look like bugs!"
I believe given the smallest chance, life flourishes throughout the universe. It is highly probable there are many planets with intelligent 'bugs'.
Posted by: Daniel | Apr 19, 2008 3:40:38 PM
Debbie,
Who says the Bible is reliable? I don't believe that the evidence supports that position. The Bible, when read from an Aramaic (Jesus' native language) translation, sounds very different than the King James version spouted by the Bible thumpers. Any linguist can tell you that you need to be careful of any "literal" interpretation. Even English is "literally" different than when the King James version was translated. As the saying goes, "It's the thought that counts." Jesus has no specific opinion on creation. It's all in the Old Testament.
Posted by: Tony | Apr 19, 2008 7:13:49 PM
This calculation is very significant. This is what we Creationists have been saying all along. Life is, for all intents and purposes, impossible without having a Creator. Of course this is exactly what our historical record has been saying for thousands of years as well.
Posted by: PQQAm | Apr 20, 2008 5:38:38 AM
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