Ned Potter is the science correspondent for ABC's "World News with Charles Gibson." He has reported on such topics as space exploration, the human genome and climate change.
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Duck!! Not.
April 16, 2008 2:01 PM
There is an asteroid, known to astronomers as 99942 Apophis, that caused a bit of a stir when it was first spotted in 2004. An early calculation showed it had a 2.7 percent chance of hitting the Earth on April 13, 2029.
Everyone's become much calmer since then; the latest calculation was that it stood a one-in-45,000 chance of hitting us. But then came a 13-year-old German schoolboy named Nico Marquardt.
Agence France-Presse (see their story HERE), quoting the German paper Potsdamer Neueste Nachrichten, reports that young Mr. Marquardt did some math for a local science competition, and decided Apophis will miss us in 2029 -- but then stand a one-in-450 chance of hitting us on its next pass, seven years later, on April 13, 2036.
450 instead of 45,000? According to AFP, what Nico figured on, but grownups hadn't, was that during its 2029 pass, the asteroid might hit one of the 8,000 satellites currently in Earth orbit. If that happens, Nico was quoted as saying, "Es könnte knapp werden." ("It could become tight.")
The rest of the newspaper piece is HERE, if you read German. If not, you may want to try FreeTranslation.com. The story soon spread worldwide; look HERE and HERE for examples.
Apophis follows an elliptical orbit around the sun, passing roughly between Earth and Mars, and occasionally making close passes. NASA has an interactive diagram HERE, and if you run it forward to 2029 and 2036, Apophis does swing by.
The newspaper says Nico wrote a theme called "Der Killerasteroid Apophis" (do you need a translation of that?), which came to the attention of someone at the European Space Agency...which passed it on to someone at NASA...which confirmed the kid's numbers.
So I called around NASA, where I mostly got blank stares, if that's what you can call them over the phone -- except for one long-time acquaintance who said, "NASA didn't confirm jack."
This afternoon they put out a statement: "The Near-Earth Object Program Office has not changed its current estimates for the very low probability (1/45,000) of an Earth impact by Apophis in 2036.
"Contrary to some recent press reports, NASA has had no correspondence with the young German student who has claimed that the Apophis impact probability is far higher.
"This student's conclusion was reportedly based upon the possibility of a collision with an artificial satellite during the asteroid's close approach in April 2029. However, the asteroid will not pass near the main belt of geosynchronous satellites and the chance of a collision with a satellite is exceedingly remote."
A team at JPL's Solar System Dynamics Group, led by Jon Giorgini, published a paper in January in the journal Icarus, confirming that Apophis will safely miss us in 2029, and calculating that the chances of an impact in 2036 are only one in 45,000. But there are uncertainties because the asteroid, less than a thousand feet in diameter, may be rotating, or brighter on one side than the other (sunlight, causing heating and other effects, can slightly alter its path), or it may be pulled in one direction or another by other asteroids. Their paper is HERE, and there's a good summary HERE.
Just remember that at the moment, Apophis is more than 147 million miles away, that Earth is less than 8,000 miles in diameter, and that for all this to be a non-issue, it only has to miss us by...a hundred miles.
April 16, 2008 | Permalink | Share | User Comments (43)
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I'm currious to know what the chances are that it would collide with our moon? Also, how close would it need to get to Earth to be pulled into, or have its trajectory significantly impacted by, Earth's gravitational pull?
Posted by: Patrick | Apr 16, 2008 2:56:21 PM
most folks dont realize that comets are much more dangerous to this planet than meteors ,which can be seen/studied while still far away ,therefor affording us earthlings with a bit of time to figure out what to do .
comets are invisible sometimes until they get close enough to a star for a tail to be seen ,and by then it would probably be too late to do much .
one thing to note about such galactic collisions , statistically speaking this planet is overdue for such an event according to most astronomers so it wouldnt surprise me much if the both the kid (450 miles) and the scientists (45k miles ) were both wrong...
Posted by: bah | Apr 16, 2008 2:58:41 PM
God has already predetermined the end of the world as explained in the Bible. The only variables are when and how. No point in worrying about it, provided you have all of your spiritual ducks in a row, so to speak. :-)
Posted by: Zinglesloff | Apr 16, 2008 3:31:36 PM
Patrick -- The Earth's gravity has already been included in the calculations.
Posted by: Andrew | Apr 16, 2008 3:32:42 PM
It sounds like the chances of that asteroid hitting us is about the same as the odds that Obama did not mean it when he said that small town voters are bitter people that cling to guns and religion.
Posted by: WestCoastMessenger | Apr 16, 2008 3:34:04 PM
Yea well I'm going with the kid. We're overdue for a galactical event so says science. Hopefully by then I'll be dead and won't care much about what goes on here.
Posted by: Courtn-Court | Apr 16, 2008 3:37:22 PM
Bah,
Please go back and re-read the article. No one is referring to how many miles the comet will miss the Earth by, they are referring to the chances that there will be a collision - 1:450, or 1:45,000.
Posted by: Bob | Apr 16, 2008 3:43:28 PM
OMG! It may NOT hit us! We stopped the satellite, can we stop this?
Posted by: Rina | Apr 16, 2008 3:44:17 PM
Andrew - good one. Have you ever heard of something called "obsessive/compulsive disorder". I suggest you talk to your doctor about that.
As for this asteroid, I'm going to guess neither are correct. But if I had to go with one, I'd have to go with NASA...a team of mathmeticials and physists vs a teen in Germany. Hmmm...
Posted by: Brian | Apr 16, 2008 3:46:03 PM
As long as no damn Bruce Willis movies come out of this, I don't care.
Posted by: Giant Coq | Apr 16, 2008 3:47:00 PM
Not surprisingly the 450 in 1 estimate is based on a false premise. Without going into too much detail the youngster simply increased the radius of the earth in the calculations to match that of geosynchronous orbit.
So, what’s the problem? Well, there are many problems with that idea but the biggest problem is that most of the space he added to the calculations is completely empty of satellites, the earth or anything else.
Sigh, why did this even get press time?
Posted by: waggle | Apr 16, 2008 3:47:12 PM
I call dibbs on being the cult leader for "Apophis 4/13/36." Join me if you wish. I'll bring the koolaid!
Posted by: acey4utosay | Apr 16, 2008 3:48:39 PM
Waggle, I hope this is not a stupid question as I am not well versed in rocket science, but given that the Earth should have quite a few more satellites in orbit come 2036, would that fill up the currently empty space enough to change the original equation, or has that already been factored in? Thanks!
Posted by: acey4utosay | Apr 16, 2008 3:53:51 PM
please people, they just wanna us to think that this might happen and some wizz kid comes along and trys to be a brain and be smarter, one good story. hmmm....
Posted by: mywierdo | Apr 16, 2008 3:54:56 PM
We are all going to be gone in 2012 per the Mayans so why do we care what happens in 2029 or 2036........
However, Acey4utosay, I will bring the cookies...... count me in
Posted by: Christine | Apr 16, 2008 3:56:08 PM
acey4utosay
You could add another 2,000 satellites in orbit and the odds wouldn't significantly change.
Posted by: Waggle | Apr 16, 2008 3:58:37 PM
waggle...that is a great idea... kind of like a "force shield".
Posted by: sickofit | Apr 16, 2008 4:01:16 PM
The Mayans didn't say the world ended - just some people interpret their calendar ending that way. And I'm not a bit worried about this thing. The aliens living here in the Oceans, on the dark side of the moon, and in New York City and Hollywood won't let that happen.
Posted by: Mark | Apr 16, 2008 4:04:19 PM
We not make it to 2036 anyhoo, have fun, treat people right and your time will come, someday.
Posted by: david | Apr 16, 2008 4:09:23 PM
Wow, spiritual ducks, cookies and koolaid? Count me in, it's BBQ time.
Posted by: Karrin | Apr 16, 2008 4:11:25 PM
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