Ned Potter is the science correspondent for ABC's "World News with Charles Gibson." He has reported on such topics as space exploration, the human genome and climate change.
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It's Not the Sun
April 07, 2008 8:02 AM
Those who doubt that human activity is warming the climate sometimes suggest that earthly temperatures are tied to the natural cycles of the Sun.
Two British physicists decided to test this idea. They say they came up dry.
The paper, by Terry Sloan of Lancaster University and Arnold Wolfendale of Durham University, is in Environmental Research Letters; find the abstract and links to the full paper HERE.
The idea -- the one they set out to check -- was that solar wind, the charged particles coming our way from the Sun, has an effect on cloud cover, and, therefore, on temperature. Solar activity rises and falls in eleven-year cycles, as well as having longer, less rhythmic patterns.
So they looked at measurements of solar activity over two eleven-year cycles, and compared them to weather records. In one cycle, solar wind correlated to cloud cover about a quarter of the time. In the other, they say they saw no relationship at all.
"This is of vast significance because if the skeptics are right, it would mean we're wasting our time trying to cut greenhouse gases," the researchers said in a statement. "But we couldn't find the link they were proposing which means we are right to be cutting carbon emissions."
There's further explanation by Richard Black of the BBC; take a look HERE. He quotes the leading proponent of the cosmic-ray theory as being undeterred.
(False-color image of the Sun's disc from the SOHO spacecraft. NASA/ESA)
April 7, 2008 | Permalink | Share | User Comments (54)
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The reason that they did not correlate was because they chose to disprove the solar wind acting on clouds (only) and claim proudly that its not the sun. Solar wind isn't like a blowing wind that can affect clouds. Solar winds leave the sun as super hot perticle streams, the faster, the hotter. The solar wind/cosmic ray hypothesis was lame to start with. The correllation for TSI and warming has a better correlation than CO2 alone without any solar wind effect factored in. So don't rule out the sun as a major factor just yet. To date there has been a lot of disproving but so far no definitive answer has been found.
Posted by: Quietman | Apr 7, 2008 8:26:18 AM
What, you mean that these scientists who work on grants, are going to come out with evidence AGAINST the false religion of global warming! Do you know what has happened to researchers and scientist who don't tow the line? They get fired! A flawed anaylsis and half assed research does not a conclusion make. Until you look at the temperatures rising on other planets and their moons, you can't determined anything reasonably. The facts are that those temperatures have been increasing on those planets according to NASA's own research... look it up. I would just like to know from all of the folks who will call me and others the equvalent of holocaust deniers one, simple question: What is causing the global warming on these planets, because it sure ISN'T humans!!! Do we now declare war on aliens, because they are a threat to their own planets fragile ecosystem? Get real! Facts are stubborn things.
Posted by: zyx | Apr 7, 2008 9:30:08 AM
So, in with all this scientific analysis, where is the accounting for the steady rise in the numbers of sunspots over the time since we've been counting them? -- Why is the study only surveying a couple of 11 year cycles? -- Anyway, anything that gets human beings to behave in a more responsible way regarding their planet can't be all bad. -- Our husbandry has been rather shabby, to say the least.
Posted by: Marie Zarankevich | Apr 7, 2008 9:44:22 AM
Marie
Two 11 year cycles is one full 22 year cycle or in other words 11 years is 1/2 of a full sunspot cycle. And they only measured one because they knew the result before they began.
Posted by: Quietman | Apr 7, 2008 9:53:02 AM
I wish I had invented the internet and global warming...what an easy way to get rich quick!
Posted by: Southernfarmer | Apr 7, 2008 10:00:32 AM
So why are the polar ice caps on Mars receding? Is my SUV to blame for that as well?
Posted by: Red Man | Apr 7, 2008 10:02:26 AM
First of all, the "polar ice caps" on MArs are not obviously "receding." A few pictures on Mars showed a reduced dry-ice field and suddenly the denial industry comes up with: “ALL of the other solar bodies are experiencing global warming!!” (Oh yes, there’s some evidence of global warming on Pluto too, but it was just at its closest point to the sun so that’s not too surprising.) The dry-ice field on Mars could be “melting” due to global warming or orbital tilt or any number of other things. Since Mars’ atmosphere is almost pure CO2, some global warming might be expected. And even if it has something to do with the sun, nobody said the sun was NOT changing. Scientists just can't find any evidence that it is changing enough to account for most of the current global warming on Earth.
Posted by: jock59801 | Apr 7, 2008 10:46:03 AM
I do commend the scientists for looking into this. The good thing about true skeptics (which all scientists are), is that they are willing to test just about any reasonable hypothesis someone can come up with. There was another paper a year or two ago where scientists looked into another aspect of solar energy (I would have to look up the details), and found that it also could not explain current events.
Skepticism is good until it becomes a refusal to believe anything regardless of evidence.
Posted by: jock59801 | Apr 7, 2008 10:49:59 AM
I've honestly never heard of this before. Kind of odd. I remember a while back, in 1998-99 I ran a small observatory and had the great honor of seeing the tail end of the last solar maximum. It sure was grand. After seeing what I saw, I can somewhat understand the thinking behind this, but can't believe it if there is no evidence supporting it.
Posted by: Lawrence | Apr 7, 2008 11:22:24 AM
It's a fact that all of us will be dead in about 150 years so why do we care?
Posted by: Jim T | Apr 7, 2008 11:25:04 AM
I love how everytime a global warming paper is written by scientists every "Joe Nobody" suddenly becomes an expert technical analyst and critic. People will believe what they want to believe on the subject of Global Warming.
Posted by: Dave | Apr 7, 2008 12:22:07 PM
How desperate do climate change deniers have to be? The cyclilic shrinking of the CO2 polar caps on Mars as "proof" that climate shifts are solar driven? Face the facts: we're pumping billions of addition tons of CO2 into a closed ecological/geological system each year, for at least the last 300 years... the system needs to readjust to maintain equilibrium...
Rush is a delusional pill head, sell your SUV and gain an understanding of some basic science...
Posted by: tamoko | Apr 7, 2008 12:24:49 PM
Oh Ned Ned Ned. You're such a pot-stirrer. ;-) It's too bad you can't somehow combine global warming with evolution - this blog would be on fire.
Posted by: cturple | Apr 7, 2008 12:34:57 PM
Nothing like a good hoax to keep the peasants occupied. Anyone looking for a good deal on ammo and canned goods? I'm converting my Y2K bunker into a chicken house. Oh yeah,if anyone needs to buy some carbon credits, I've got a trunk full of them. Jeez Louise folks, we control the weather? I don't think even a genius like Al Gore can save us.
Posted by: plato | Apr 7, 2008 1:09:44 PM
plato - No, we can't control the weather, although we indirectly affect it through climate change. The "weather" refers to day-to-day and even month-to-month LOCAL patterns of temperature and precipitation. The CLIMATE refers to long-term trends and regional/global averages. As our GHG emissions change the global average climate, local weather patterns will probably change as well, but not in a predictable or controllable way.
Posted by: jock59801 | Apr 7, 2008 1:32:17 PM
No Plato - we don't control the weather. We can however control how much CO2 we put into the atmosphere, which effects the climate. Al Gore isn't a genius - but Al Gore didn't write any of my textbooks, deliver any of the lectures I've attended, or teach any of my classes. And they all delivered the same message. The current global warming/climate change is largely anthropogenic. It ain't the sun, it's 6+ billion human beings, our livestock, and our technology. This study just reiterates what we already knew. And if you've got some MRE's for cheap, I'll take them off your hands.
Posted by: cturple | Apr 7, 2008 1:35:56 PM
{Oh Ned Ned Ned. You're such a pot-stirrer. ;-) It's too bad you can't somehow combine global warming with evolution - this blog would be on fire.}
He can cturple. Anyone can. Watch this:
Global Warming Caused Evolution. Therefore, if the planet warms more, we will devolve back into apes!
Posted by: Lawrence | Apr 7, 2008 1:42:31 PM
Lawrence, you have done smote the nail right on the flat spot. If globel warming continues, we will devolve socially if not physically, because the whole social system will come down around our ears. Then, it's back to the jungle, folks.
Posted by: Andy | Apr 7, 2008 1:55:57 PM
Cturple,
As usual, erudite. With tongue firmly in cheek - What is the carbon footprint of an MRE?
I suspect that "Digging for Victory" may make more sense. I wonder how much carbon sequestration we could achieve if everyone planted a garden for a few years.
Posted by: Andy Clark | Apr 7, 2008 2:37:58 PM
Two physists making any claims about climate, weather or especially the sun is like going to a cardiologist for advice about a crown or an implant on a tooth.
Then to only look at the clouds here on earth and conclude that nope the sun has nothing to do with it. Yeah right. Oh, and send more funding though. Keep the money comming in so we can study some more.
What is even more comical is the sheeple. How can some be so ignorant and just assume that man is the problem and then be even more ignorant that man can "fix" the problem. You can't. I read above that man has been pumping billions of tons of co2 for the last 300 years. You can't be serious, if you are then you can't be taken serious. Have you even thought about what you just wrote, or do you just go with your emotions and the prepared talking points.
And for the record. Weather and Climate are RELATED. Climate IS weather conditions for a region.
Posted by: 888 | Apr 7, 2008 2:38:52 PM
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