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Ned Potter is the science correspondent for ABC's "World News with Charles Gibson." He has reported on such topics as space exploration, the human genome and climate change.

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It's Not Your Imagination: Hurricanes Getting Stronger

September 03, 2008 2:41 PM

Hanna_and_ike_908 In 2005 -- right, by coincidence, in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina -- two major research papers came out suggesting that hurricanes were being strengthened by global climate change.  There was a great deal of hubbub and debate; some researchers said a warmer climate was preventing some storms from forming.  For a while, the issue quieted down.

Today -- right, by coincidence, in the aftermath of Hurricane Gustav -- there's another paper bolstering the theory.  It's in the journal Nature, which has a summary HERE.

In it, James Elsner of Florida State University and two colleagues look at satellite data from the last 25 years.  Though the number of named storms globally, they say, did not appear to increase with gradually-warming oceans, the number that turned into major storms -- categories 4 and 5 -- did.  Those are storms with winds over 130 mph.

They project that if the average temperature of the world's oceans goes up by one degree Celsius, it could cause "an increase in the global frequency of strong cyclones from 13 to 17 cyclones per year -- an increase of 31%."

So the debate heats up again.  "I believe that in the next 20 years we're going to see unprecedented hurricane activity in the North Atlantic," said Judith Curry of Georgia Tech, one of the authors of the 2005 studies, in an interview with ABC News.

But Chris Landsea, now at the National Hurricane Center, has been a voice of caution, and he was again when I talked with him today.

"Global warming is real; we do have man-made causes for it, and since hurricanes are a natural heat engine, if we warm things up it may provide a little more fuel for the hurricanes," Landsea said.

"But all of the modeling and theory suggests that hurricanes could get stronger by a few percent a hundred years from now.  Hurricanes today may be just a tiny bit stronger, maybe one percent stronger today, so even for a Category Five, you may be looking at a couple of miles per hour, out of 170 mile-per-hour peak, due to global warming.

"There's a very, very tiny influence of global warming on hurricanes, in my opinion."


(Above: Tropical Storm Hanna, in a NOAA satellite image.  The remnants of Gustav are visible in the upper left.)

September 3, 2008 | Permalink | Share | User Comments (42)

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I truly believe we need to cut our individual carbon footprint by half ASAP! if we all do our part we can all reap the benefits. DO AS I DO, NOT AS A SAY!!!!!

Posted by: rob99eclipse | Sep 3, 2008 3:58:31 PM

Don't worry! Our next VP, Sarah Palin, says that Global Warming is not caused by Human activity, if it is happening at all! What more assurance do you need?

Posted by: Mark | Sep 3, 2008 4:02:26 PM

I knew it! I knew it!

Posted by: Jim Bob | Sep 3, 2008 4:08:03 PM

How can a study that goes back to the acknowledged low period of a known cycle that has nothing to do with warming and compares that the the high period of a known cycle tell us anything? To know anything you have to go backthrough a series of cycles and compare evidence.

Posted by: Jay | Sep 3, 2008 4:08:57 PM

Anyone who has actually read anything on global warming knows that this is a ridiculous conclusion. Weather models run by the world's largest supercomputers fail to accurately predict weather more than a couple of days into the future. To suggest that these models can tell us anything about the relationship between global warming and hurricane activity is either disingenious or, as is more likely, a thinly veiled attempt to use science to advance a political and social agenda. This article is hogwash.

Posted by: Brandon | Sep 3, 2008 4:15:18 PM

GIVE ME A BREAK.... After Katrina they said that Glabal Warming caused bigger and stronger hurricanes. Then there was a lull in storms and several scientist released reports saying that Global Warming actually caused smaller and less intense hurricanes. And now that we have a couple hurricanes, this is again proof of Global Warming. The ONLY thing that any of this proves is that scientists are IDIOTS...

Posted by: Topsery Krett | Sep 3, 2008 4:18:14 PM

The sky is falling... the sky is falling! Everyone, run for your lives!

Posted by: Michigander | Sep 3, 2008 4:30:05 PM

I knew it was just a matter of time. The global warming nuts first declared we'd have a million hurricanes a year. When that didn't pan out, global warming was to blame for the lack of hurricanes.

Now, global warming is affecting the severity of hurricanes and we're still going to have a million hurricanes a year but not anytime soon.

Posted by: Ed | Sep 3, 2008 4:33:10 PM

They asked this Chinese Communist "Why do you believe your press, it's run by the government"? His answer was "Why do you believe yours, it's run by capitalists”?

Just follow the money, it pays much more to be an alarmist not a scientist.

Posted by: drobb | Sep 3, 2008 4:45:10 PM

I am sure that this revalation has nothing to do with research dollars? This could not be a natural cycle or anything like increased sun activity, it has to be global warming because the "scientist" said so and Al Gore said it was so. The sky is truly falling.

Posted by: billy bob | Sep 3, 2008 4:49:13 PM

This is crazy once again. I want to fight global warming so lets cap the volcanoes some how, destroy the wetlands, remove water vapor from the air, and plug the vents in the ocean floors. We can do it with today's technology, but it is going to take a concerted effort on everyone's part. The things I just mentioned do release tons more than humans could ever. Also water vapor causes the greenhouse effect, so we could just end that one real quick and we all would die. let's get started people.

Posted by: Eric | Sep 3, 2008 4:49:56 PM

Allegations of scientists wanting to get rich for being alarmists are ridiculous. Does anyone really believe that many thousands of scientists worldwide want to defend an "untruth" simply for money? Who is in charge of this conspiracy? Do they have a leader? Think about it, it makes no sense whatsoever. It's an absurd conspiracy theory.

Posted by: plantain11 | Sep 3, 2008 4:53:19 PM

John Williams- nice but the article is over 8 years old. Hurricanes are caused by a differential in temps between water and air. So if the waters warmer then normal and the air is average temp result Hurricanes. The opposite is also true and that’s what we are experiencing now (Cold air masses average water temps). Since we have been seeing a gradual cooling not warming since 2002 and the ocean temps are dropping shows we, as predicted, are going into a probably small ice age.

Posted by: drobb | Sep 3, 2008 4:58:47 PM

Maier's Law

If the facts don't conform to the theory, they must be disposed of.

Corollaries:
1) The bigger the theory, the better.

2) The experiment may be considered a success if no more than 50% of the observed measurements must be discarded to obtain a correspondence with the theory.

Posted by: drobb | Sep 3, 2008 5:01:58 PM

The law of scientific consensus:

At times of high scientific controversy, the consensus is always wrong.

Posted by: drobb | Sep 3, 2008 5:03:45 PM

drobb wrote: "The law of scientific consensus: At times of high scientific controversy, the consensus is always wrong."
---------------------
But I know of NO controversy among serious scientists now. Is there a single climate expert that discounts man-made global warming, especially after the Vostok Ice Core results show that there's no cycle, that CO2 is 1/3 higher today than at any time in the last 420,000 years?

Posted by: Mickey | Sep 3, 2008 5:08:00 PM

I am sooooooo sick of this global warming crap. I think yeah, maybe the earth is warming, but honestly we can say that its part of the natural cycle. I mean look at the ice age, if the earth never warmed back up we would still be living in that ice age. So right there shows that at some point in time there was global warming to melt all the ice. Right after Katrina all the reports stated that hurrican season would get worse (start sooner, end later, and have more hurricans) Nothing happened...now we have a more active season and its now on to the global warming. Get over it. Oh and those cat 1 and 2 hurricans are nothing than a mere thunderstorm where i live. It fairly common to see wind up to 70-80 miles an hr in a thunderstorm. And if you dont like hurricans do not live on the freakin coast....every area in the nation suffers from some type of wrath from mother nature (hurricans, tornados, earthquakes, volcanos, avalanches)

Posted by: LIFE | Sep 3, 2008 5:16:10 PM

I can't believe this crap... if any of you had half a brain, you would remember that they CLAIMED that there was an INCREASE in storms because global warming... this article just DEBUNK that claim... NOW they are saying its "stronger"... from 13 to 17... so 4 more that are stronger and I highly suspect that their number "4" was manipulated and pulled from the netherworld of make-believe... what ever happened having EVIDENCE instead of anecdotal crap without any basis....

Posted by: John | Sep 3, 2008 6:06:00 PM

Global warming is caused by the recent increase in greenhouse gasses. Natural sources aren't a problem because they are *natural* and the planet has been dealing with them darn near forever. Their output has not increased, that I am aware of, so their output is not the problem. However, we have been pumping out more, and more, and more. If we at least kept it to a steady state, the planet could reach a new steady point. But we're not even doing that.

Posted by: Nick B | Sep 3, 2008 6:12:11 PM

This is the biggest bunch of none sense that I have ever read. Global warming must be heating their brains. Or more likely goal oriented science that needs more funding for their religion. Just wait. Al Gore will make another CGI enhanced movie about hurricanes being strengthened to fund his new business venture. So, you global warming aspostles, how do you explain the past 2 years when we had dramtically LOW number of hurricanes? After 2005, every "scientist" was proclaiming record numbers of powerful hurricanes for 2006 and again for 2007 because of Pope Al Gore's Global Warming. Where are they now? Well here is one. "Prof" Ivorytower of Hardvard who is a "global warming expert". His explanation for the low volumn of hurricanes those seasons? "Not only does global warming theory predict more storms, more droughts, more floods, it also predicts more normal weather as well. This is what makes global warming theory so powerful…it can explain anything" So let me see. It isn't testable using the scientific method. And, it may or may not change things like hurricane frequency. So we can use it to explain everything. I don't call that science. I call that a scam. Now that a cat 2 hurricane has struct the US these zealots come crawling out from their global warmed rock to prophesize. Why? Funding. NOT because of real science. A high schooler can plug numbers into a computer and generate the results THEY want.

Posted by: GobalNoneSense | Sep 3, 2008 6:12:39 PM

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