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Ned Potter is the science correspondent for ABC's "World News with Charles Gibson." He has reported on such topics as space exploration, the human genome and climate change.

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It's Not Your Imagination: Hurricanes Getting Stronger

September 03, 2008 2:41 PM

Hanna_and_ike_908 In 2005 -- right, by coincidence, in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina -- two major research papers came out suggesting that hurricanes were being strengthened by global climate change.  There was a great deal of hubbub and debate; some researchers said a warmer climate was preventing some storms from forming.  For a while, the issue quieted down.

Today -- right, by coincidence, in the aftermath of Hurricane Gustav -- there's another paper bolstering the theory.  It's in the journal Nature, which has a summary HERE.

In it, James Elsner of Florida State University and two colleagues look at satellite data from the last 25 years.  Though the number of named storms globally, they say, did not appear to increase with gradually-warming oceans, the number that turned into major storms -- categories 4 and 5 -- did.  Those are storms with winds over 130 mph.

They project that if the average temperature of the world's oceans goes up by one degree Celsius, it could cause "an increase in the global frequency of strong cyclones from 13 to 17 cyclones per year -- an increase of 31%."

So the debate heats up again.  "I believe that in the next 20 years we're going to see unprecedented hurricane activity in the North Atlantic," said Judith Curry of Georgia Tech, one of the authors of the 2005 studies, in an interview with ABC News.

But Chris Landsea, now at the National Hurricane Center, has been a voice of caution, and he was again when I talked with him today.

"Global warming is real; we do have man-made causes for it, and since hurricanes are a natural heat engine, if we warm things up it may provide a little more fuel for the hurricanes," Landsea said.

"But all of the modeling and theory suggests that hurricanes could get stronger by a few percent a hundred years from now.  Hurricanes today may be just a tiny bit stronger, maybe one percent stronger today, so even for a Category Five, you may be looking at a couple of miles per hour, out of 170 mile-per-hour peak, due to global warming.

"There's a very, very tiny influence of global warming on hurricanes, in my opinion."


(Above: Tropical Storm Hanna, in a NOAA satellite image.  The remnants of Gustav are visible in the upper left.)

September 3, 2008 | Permalink | Share | User Comments (42)

User Comments

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BTW, weather models & weather prediction are like apples & oranges. Why don't you learn something about how the scientific method really works before criticizing it? At least scientists aren't basing anything on an ancient book by multiple unknown authors which has been translated so many times that it often contradicts itself. If you think science is bad then try to understand "literal interpretation", a concept not supported by human language itself.

Posted by: Tony | Sep 3, 2008 7:04:24 PM

It truly amazes and disgusts me how arrogant and full of denial many are, desperately looking for ANY ground to stand on so we DON'T HAVE TO CHANGE, keep on being the polluting pigs we are, while our grandchildren's tissues accumulate pesticides (and cancers/allergies rise), species die out at an alarming rate, and our entire planet becomes one big, overheated cat box. We deserve what is coming to us, the shame of it is we killed a beautiful world.

n


Posted by: Virginia | Sep 3, 2008 7:30:31 PM

Welcome back, Ned. We sure missed you. Looks like you stepped in it again. Please wipe your feet.

Posted by: Andy | Sep 3, 2008 8:04:23 PM

I'm sure a billion watts of microwave energy beamed from space has nothing to do with it.


Until the military/industrial complex stops playing god, global warming is just a convenient smokescreen for criminal activity!

Posted by: Steve | Sep 3, 2008 11:19:26 PM

Ned Potter! Science, history and the unsurmountable changes to come...nothing will ever be centered on just one...What is happening was predicted so long ago..it makes a person wonder how much more...Religion, Science and Historical Data bring into play what truely matters...Life! No money on this earth will stop all the effects, nor will it give reverance to change...Awareness of Mother Nature and the studies of what Man can do best can only prepare us to protect the smallest of assets...life again...As a People, many are not thinkers of the same...and would hardly incline an ear to think past what they have learned...but many do see, and know we can not change the environment with out all working together...so there will be the extrems of those who disbelieve in what is happening Globally! Apachecheynne

Posted by: Apachecheynne | Sep 4, 2008 12:07:13 AM

I bet if a hurricane hit New York like in that movie you'd all be singing a different tune. But yeah this is the cyclone season, when a cyclones/hurricanes start to happen at time of year when they are not supposed to happen, then we should start to be at least a little worried. If it is indeed happening at all, man made or just natural, I mean seriously if we are heading into another ice age we're pretty much screwed weather we caused it or not.

Posted by: Garry | Sep 4, 2008 3:29:22 AM

Steve,

Where are the billions of watts? Your reference is just an image. The only big microwave source in space is the sun...is it some kind of plot?

Posted by: Tony | Sep 4, 2008 7:38:40 AM

No, no, no. The globe is now cooling. Gustav would not have been a wimpy little cat 2 if globe warming was the real deal. If Katrina was evidence of globe warmings, Gustav is evidence of cooling. case closed.

The globe warming alarmists are seeking nothing but a power grab for money and power, more control over peoples' lives. If they just wanted to stop c02 emissions, they could mandate less by law. Instead they want to tax tax and tax some more. I'll bet in 10-20 years the media and scientific community will have lost all credibility on this and every other issue. That's what you get for putting politics ahead of real science.

Posted by: squeenter squillo | Sep 4, 2008 9:40:07 AM

squeenter squillo: "If they just wanted to stop c02 emissions, they could mandate less by law."

That is the goal, and that is exactly what cap-and trade does. I'm glad we all agree.

Posted by: jock59801 | Sep 4, 2008 11:08:46 AM

It is not just hurricanes - major flood and major droughts are slamming our country and the world. .........

Posted by: Ohg Rea Tone | Sep 4, 2008 1:11:42 PM

drobb
The change may be the shift in origin that we discussed on the Bertha thread. It is quite possible for warming to cause more or more intense storms if the area where they originate is being affected. They had snow there last winter, a highly unusual occurrence in that part of the world. That's why it's called climate change rather than GW.

Posted by: Quietman | Sep 4, 2008 5:50:08 PM

Mickey
Actually more than one true climatologist argues against global warming. The "father of climatology" actually puts it quite a bit more strongly (he says the alarmists make him throw up). A renowned professor that taught many of todays scientists and was famous for his sea level study bitterly opposed the IPCC consensus (he passed away 2 years ago so he did not see last winters predictions come true). Unfortunately, most of the scientists in the climate field that disagree are quite old, many retired and have little say in this "consensus".
Too bad too, as they could use the experience.

Posted by: Quietman | Sep 4, 2008 5:57:50 PM

Garry
As a native New Yorker I can assure you that hurricanes can and did hit New York and quite hard. I remember Diana when I was growing up. They have not been bad like that since the 1950s, but milder ones have hit that I remember from the 1960's through 1980's.

Posted by: Quietman | Sep 4, 2008 6:01:44 PM

Ohg Rea Tone
Nothing new. I am old enough to remember seeing houses floating in the susquehana river near Harrisburg, PA.
Just because the real bad storms took a 20 or 30 year vacation does not mean that they were gone forever.

Posted by: Quietman | Sep 4, 2008 6:05:03 PM

Virginia
It is not so we don't have to change, its so we dont do the wrong thing AGAIN.

Posted by: Quietman | Sep 4, 2008 6:06:36 PM

Global Warming...makes for a great debate doesn't it? Granted it can't be denied that there is climate change in many parts of the world...but how much is mankind actually responsible for and can we stop the ineviable? Or is this just another one Mother Earth's changing cycles that science has proven time and time again to be normal. The Earth has gone through quite a few global warming and cooling periods and may have caused several mass extinctions in the process. I've even heard about how there was no polar ice caps during the age of the dinosaurs (I want to say the Mesozoic period--but I may be wrong)and that the Earth was much more Tropical during that time. I don't discredit science--but the alarmists also need to tone it down a little as well. Who would have guessed that 65 million years ago that an Asteriod would end life as the dinosaurs knew it and make way for mammals to evolve and prosper (thus the reason we don't have to constantly worry if T-Rex is hungry tonight and wants a human midnight snack. 15 years ago anyone who claimed a large rock from outer space ended the reign of the dinosaurs was called a crackpot, and who knows maybe we are warming a little faster than normal because of our activities, but that question won't be truely answered until later on in time when scientists can look back on today's climate and compare it with their current climate models. But that is neither here nor there since I'm still waiting on the "Big One" (Earthquake) that's been overdue for the last 30 years to turn Los Angeles and most of Southern California an island.

Posted by: my two cents | Sep 5, 2008 1:19:08 AM

NO, more people are moving to live in Hurricane prone areas. The population is increasing and choosing to live in ares suseptible to hurricanes. The amount of damage is relative to the amount of industrialization and people living there. It's not the strength of the hurricanes. It's the amount of people that are in the path of them that pshes the numbers up. The amount and strength of hurricanes fluctuates thanks to el ninio/la nina warming patterns and has nothing to do with the earth bound "enviroment" NOTHING!

Posted by: argh! | Sep 8, 2008 12:35:25 PM

my two cents
Are you aware that LA had smog before the invention of the IC engine? That is why CARB had increased restrictions on NOx and less on HC and CO tacked to the 1975 Clean Air Act and was granted a seperate set of specs. Now all 50 states use CAL spec even though the other 49 do not have the same NOx problems.

Posted by: Quietman | Sep 9, 2008 2:56:47 PM

If this information is true, then I believe within the next 10 years we will start seeing a mass exodus of people moving away from the Caribbean, as well as the coast of Mexico. However I feel that Americans will continue to rebuild after every hurricane, and that we will never learn not to build in an area that is in yearly danger of hurricanes.

Posted by: Kyle | Sep 11, 2008 8:47:51 AM

If this information is true, then I believe within the next 10 years we will start seeing a mass exodus of people moving away from the Caribbean, as well as the coast of Mexico. However I feel that Americans will continue to rebuild after every hurricane, and that we will never learn not to build in an area that is in yearly danger of hurricanes.

Posted by: Kyle | Sep 11, 2008 8:54:16 AM

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