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On to Bin Laden

June 09, 2006 5:17 PM

Abc_wnt_binladen_060423_nr_2The differences between the hunt for Bin Laden and Zarqawi involve geography, capability and ego.

The most recent reports of Bin Laden put him in a part of Pakistan where hiding is easy.

The frequent heavy cloud cover, as seen in today's weather map, makes satellite surveillance difficult, and bin Laden's captured aides say he knows it and takes advantage of it.

"At nighttime and during cloud cover is the optimal time to be moving around on the ground," explains Tim Brown, a satellite imagery analyst.

And unlike Iraq, there are steep mountains that can limit the line of sight of the CIA's low flying unmanned predators.

"They're going to be able to see what's directly below them and on the sides, but what's around the bend or on the other side of a mountain crest is going to be obscured," says Brown.

As for capability, U.S. troops are not free to operate in Pakistan as they are in Iraq.

And Pakistani troops have run into stiff resistance or been reluctant in their operations in the hostile tribal areas.

"This is why Bin Laden has been able to go on for so long and stay in hiding. He knows that area," says former CIA officer Bob Baer. 

Finally there's the question of ego.

Zarqawi's aggressive public posture, personally involving himself in every operation, allowed the U.S. to slowly but surely track his movements.

"Zarqawi's ego essentially led us to him. He put himself out there, he saw a lot of people, he liked to be in the media, and this is one of the quickest ways to get caught," Baer says.

And Zarqawi's operational security also had holes.

Ziad_raja_al_karbouly_nr_1 This captured Zarqawi lieutenant gave Jordanian and U.S. officials a list of houses last month.

Bin Laden has been much more careful, communicating only through a handful of bodyguards, and excluding even top aides from full knowledge of his movements and schedule.

June 9, 2006 in Osama bin Laden | Permalink | User Comments (16)

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Of course OBL knows the area.
He spent all that time and American tax dollars (thatnks to the CIA) in that area for some time fighting the Russians with the approval and support of the very country that has for the last 4+ years taken up where the Russians left off.
All dogs have their day and OBL will eventually suffer the same fate as Zarqawi.
But until then and beyond, let's not forget the history and the powers that made OBL the charismatic that he is today.
He didn't just materialize one day, out of the blue. He was crafted by ours and other countries to covertly do their bidding long before 9/11.
In the future we need be more careful what we wish for and stop short of creating monsters we can't control or afford to feed, later.
Yeah. Fat chance.

Posted by: zach | Jun 9, 2006 6:09:47 PM

Why doesn't the millitary use overflights of U2 or SR71 to search the area instead of relying on satellites? If the Pakastanis dont know they are there, how could they object?

Posted by: mike | Jun 9, 2006 6:35:00 PM

The "ego" difference also speaks to their capabilities. Zarqawai was effective because he was in the trenches (which, of course, also led to his demise). This gave his defeat more urgency. Rather than "on to Bin Laden," I would argue our next objective should be "on to stability." We need to put all our weight behind the momentum gained by Zarqawi's death and help Iraq build a more stable government. Call it the military/diplomacy one-two punch.

Posted by: Heywood U. Reedmore | Jun 9, 2006 9:29:05 PM

What happend to the rule that "any country that harbors terrorists is an enemy or the U.S.?" If we're sure he's there, then why are we letting Pakistan harbor the world's #1 terrorist?

Posted by: Kris | Jun 9, 2006 11:51:55 PM

How on earth, is Bin Laden still alive? Isn't he in need of Kidney Dialysis?

Posted by: Bruce | Jun 10, 2006 1:24:20 AM

How does OBL manage to elude capture or death?
Perhaps the answer to this may have some roots in just how his family and dozens of their associates managed to be shuttled from New York on the very eve of 9/11 rather than being held for even the most basic preliminary questioning when literally no one else could so much as get clearance to get a plane off the ground.
That answer has never been forthrightly addressed by the people that authorized it or why.
Just perhaps.
An ideal opportunity for the application of "Occam's razor" which states:
"that the simplest of two or more competing theories is preferable and that an explanation for unknown phenomena should first be attempted in terms of what is already known."
Hey. I ain't sayin'. I'm just sayin.

Posted by: zach | Jun 10, 2006 3:23:10 AM

If America knows OBL's location and yet still withhold, then there are bigger reasons to permit him life.

If we are actively tracking the top 20 terrorists, we are waiting to secure a nuke or hit them when they meet in groups of six.

George Bush is eager to send Osama bin Ladin to hell with Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, you can be sure.

Posted by: Emma Morrow | Jun 10, 2006 7:59:15 AM

Let's see two 500 lb. bombs are dropped on Zarqawi's safe house and he manages to live for a short while and some hard drives from pcs remain intact and provide useful information about Al Queda in Iraq.The miltary says the safe house is flattened. I'm not a conspiracy theorist but if 2 500 lb. bombs were dropped on my house not only would it be flattened but so would the majority of the houses that are 100 ft. away would.There would not be anything salvageable let alone any way of identifying any person in it. Has anybody every seen what 2 500 lb. bombs can do and they can read this and yet beleive it. If you want Osama you'll have to get past Bush security forces in Crawford,Texas that's how plausible Zarqawi death is.

Posted by: Dennis Goodwin | Jun 10, 2006 8:28:14 AM

In response to Dennis Goodwin:

Zarqawi was alive, but just barely, after the bombs hit. Its not like he was walking around in the yard.

Also, nothing was left in the house. The hard drives and other info were taken from houses in a series of raids that were executed either during or immediately after the strike on Zarqawi's location.

Posted by: TheCaptain | Jun 10, 2006 9:55:22 AM

Dennis Goodwin:

I personally think al-Zarqawi was betrayed, possibly by how own men. The house was almost completely destroyed, but notice that they easily identified him. I believe the bombs were selected specifically because they wouldn't burn or destroy al-Zarqawi's body beyond recognition, and in fact they did not. Also, most of the strikes against Iraqis are Hellfire missiles launched from the unmanned Predator drones. Those are used because they are dually enabled for reconnaissance and assassination. Two F-16s dropping 500-lb bombs are not typical in these strikes. Also, is it coincidental that the final touches to the new bona fide Iraqi government were made within hours of al-Zarqawi's death? Experience tells me, "no." The operation has a distinct aftertaste of previous, standing intelligence. I cannot stand bush; however, I have the greatest and deepest respect for our military because they have consistently earned it throughout U.S. history.

OBL is a different story, however. Essentially, al-Qaeda has transformed from a well-organized, very centralized, highly-mobile, cellular terrorist organization into a funding pool for an extremely decentralized, highly disorganized, loosely affiliated federation of small terrorist organizations. The "major ops" of pre-9/11 are gone. The London bombings, Madrid bombings, and Bali attacks each were far less dramatic in scope than 9/11, and have chronologically decreased in magnitued. Iraqi insurgents were no different, being Sunnis who were Saddam's henchmen during the regime years. Al-Qaeda (wisely, from its perspective) chose to fund the Iraqi insurgents through essentially street gangs. Al-Zarqawi was the un-reformed Tookie Williams of these street gangs. OBL is a bloodthirsty murderer with brainwashed bodyguards and a Swiss bank account number. Yeah, he's hard to find.

Also, to Bruce, it is widely believed that OBL's "liutenant", Ayman al-Zawahiri, who is a physician, serves OBL's need for dialysis. Al-Zawahiri is the #2 in al-Qaeda.

I believe that the US is letting bin Laden live on purpose. He is much more dangerous dead than alive. If the US killed him, he'd be a martyr. With him alive, the Arab world grows more and more sick of him daily. OBL subscribes to a super-radical form of Sunni Islam called Wahhabism that wishes the return of the Caliphates from the 600s, forming a modern Pan-Arab state from North Africa to the Indian border. No governments have fallen in favor of this radical theocracy, and Muslims throught the world overwhelmingly disapprove of this type of rule. America has brought terrorists to their knees, and with a more competant administration, would have finished the job long ago.

Posted by: Andrew E | Jun 10, 2006 1:04:18 PM

Have you seen the video from the blast? The concrete is demolished to rubble and as far as the hard drives being removed from the house prior to the bombing then why is the military (I used to be in with top secret security clearance)trying to determine if they can obtain any useful information from them.There are no bombs that will not obliterate anything they strike. Yes I have been out of the military since Vietnam however my Uncle works at the pentagon (Air Force)and he even doubts these reports.So if anyone wants to look up who he is and place his job in jeopardy, good luck,he does not have my last name.

Posted by: Dennis Goodwin | Jun 11, 2006 8:16:14 AM

My father-in-law had a top-secret clearance when he was a full bird in the Air Force. Unlike the rest of you yahoos, I'm not claiming that either he or I have any special insight into the so-called discrepancies you describe. I can think of a plethora of reasons why things turned out the way they did. Maybe they washed his face before photographing it so the public could better recognize it. Maybe the HDs are essentially unreadable but they're going to give it their best shot and make the terrorists sweat a little in the meantime. Maybe the bombs were special munitions. Maybe they were aerial bursts. Maybe...maybe...maybe. Maybe JFK is still on life support in a broom closet in Parkland Hospital. Maybe you guys are a bunch of idiots.

Posted by: Joe | Jun 11, 2006 8:17:54 PM

response to Joe
You write on various subjects of the Brian Ross Investigative team,they are all pro Bush.First off as far as the photo of al-Zarqawi it was taken 1 hour after his purported death,his face is swollen to the point one could say that is is or is not him. After a person dies within an hour all of the bodily fluid leaves the body.I have seen to many people firsthand who's face was bloated before death but within an hour their face size shrinks below normal.As far as JFK no he is dead,just like Elvis.Joe wake up your party is deceiving you just like they did with the WMD's in Iraq.Beleive what you wish but the insurgency and terror attacks will continue with renewed venegance and Iraq will finally become worse than Vietnam.

Posted by: Dennis Goodwin | Jun 12, 2006 9:23:01 AM

Dennis,

As far as being pro-Bush or not, that is neither here nor there in this thread. The point here is that all your speculation is fantastic. Not in the liberal way we often see, e.g. Bush = Hitler, AmeriKKKa = Nazi Germany, etc. The death (or purported death in you guys' view) of al Zarqawi is a pretty straight forward event. If you don't think the evidence fits, then offer an alternative scenario. None of you did that.

I mentioned JFK because for many years and dollars I wandered through that labyrinth. Two violent deaths and a long disagreement about what was over in seconds.

In Vietnam we won all the battles and lost the war. We didn't mine Haiphong or blow up the Red River dikes though. Don't know if that would have changed the ultimate outcome. And after the Korean experience we weren't going to invade the North. Yeah, this might end up like Vietnam, just get tired of it and go home. Let them settle it up their own way.

As far as Bush goes, didn't vote for him the first time and didn't think going into Iraq was a good idea initially but its done now so might as well support the troops. Probably be out before Nov 2008 with no more than 6000 battlefield KIA.

Posted by: Joe | Jun 12, 2006 4:21:27 PM

Osama can run, but, he cannot hide forever. He will be caught. Not to worry.

Posted by: Bosun | Jun 12, 2006 10:47:42 PM

Both US spy satellites and aircraft are equipped with a wide array of Remote Sensing systems that do not depend on optical imaging.
Cloud cover and dark of night would not dimmish these radar, thermal and spectral sensors that can detect human footprints
from 20,000 feet in the air. There are also
INSAR scanners that can detect underground caves and structures.
Even poorly funded archaeologists have used this technology to find "invisible" ancient trails and caves in Central American jungles and underground tombs in Iraq so I would think the US military would have vastly more powerful detection capabilities
with it's unlimited budget.
US Air Force reports on use of Litening pods to track insurgents on the ground from high flying F-15 jets in the dead of night prove that this not that hard to do.
I don't buy that there is any place on earth where anyone can hide unless we allow them to do so.
I also do not believe that US Special Forces are somehow helpless against the Pakistani
warlords who protect Osama bin Laden.
If that were true than our entire "war on terror" would be doomed to failure since that is exactly the kind of enemy we have to defeat.

Posted by: rex | Jun 20, 2006 1:09:25 PM

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