That's an impressive amount of "sampling" to be done.
Do we have the expertise in place to accomplish this in a timely manner? Do we even have a timetable set for finishing this sampling? What will be done with and/or who will deal with the data collected? Are we following the general rules for survey taking, the usual tested 1000 to 1500 birds to represent the majority of the population, or are we going to increase the sampling by bird family?

Bird Flu hype is getting old - Milllions spent on "prevention" and warnings. Its good business for many.

Sampling of wild birds (especially water fowl) will likely be performed by pooling cloacal swabs (10 birds) and examining for influenza matrix RNA by real time RT-PCR (NVSL standard). Further PCR will be performed on matrix PCR positive samples to examine for presence of H5 or H7 RNA. If PCR reveals H5 or H7 positive reaction, sequencing of the viral genome will be performed and virus(es) will be cultured in embryonated chicken eggs to archive them. This will obviously take a lot of time, but shortcuts can not be taken. Germany recently deviated from this protocol during their H5N1 outbreak to process samples in a rapid fashion, but I believe that they may have missed some isolates.

Sampling of wild birds (especially water fowl) will likely be performed by pooling cloacal swabs (10 birds) and examining for influenza matrix RNA by real time RT-PCR. Further PCR will be performed on matrix PCR positive samples to examine for presence of H5 or H7 RNA. If PCR reveals H5 or H7 positive reaction, sequencing of the viral genome will be performed and virus(es) will be cultured in embryonated chicken eggs to archive them. This will obviously take a lot of time, but shortcuts can not be taken. Germany recently deviated from this protocol during their H5N1 outbreak to process samples in a rapid fashion, but I believe that they may have missed some isolates.

I am so sick of media hype of disaster senarios. Do you think this lack of finding the flu will ever reach the airwaves?? I doubt it.

H5N1 is for all practical purposes, no threat to the human race, especially in the U.S. The vast majority of our commercial flocks are inside buildings and in controlled enviroments. Also the fact that we are a healthy population and use good personal hygiene such as soap and water. These factors are what separate us from many of the advancing societies around the world and helps protect us from these disease problems.

Each state has been given a quota of birds to be tested. Most states Game Fish organizations are leading the way and doing testing during regular bird banding activities. There are certain priority species...in waterfowl...mallards and pintails...as well as shore birds that have separate sub-quotas that are to be met. If these quotas arent met, the agencies are asking hunters to bring in certain species of ducks during the hunting season.

I work closely with our waterfowl and small game biologists and they are vigilant in their work...in all areas, but are working extremely hard in the area of the bird flu

Overblown? Yeah like the 1917 influenza outbreak. Lots of people got rich on that gimmick.

Influenza viruses mutate constantly, and the threat to humans is from what it very well may become. Every infected cell produces large numbers of viruses, many defective, many of these defects do not thrive, some end up being more able to thrive in humans. We have to treat this like the class 5 hurricane that could hit a major city.

If the bird flu reaches America it would more likely arrive by Asian imports than migratory birds. H5N1 developed in large poultry farms with thousands, sometimes millions of mono genetic, closely confined, immune deficient birds. The virus was exported via chicks, hatching eggs, litter, and feed to other farms. See grain.org for more information. The solution is not to closely confine poultry indoors, but rather return to the more natural method of keeping diverse flocks in large pens or free ranging as is traditional. Factory farming of poultry, beef, swine, etc. is not healthy for the animals nor the consumers. Mad cow is the result of big agribusiness feeding cows to cows. They figured it was an efficient way to rid themselves of slaughterhouse waste, the FDA approved of course. Do not swallow what garbage the big corporations and government agencies try to tell you about factory farms being "safer" than traditional farming methods, investigate the facts, our food supply can be made much safer, but not by big agribusiness and the USDA, and their attempts to destroy America's small and organic producers.

There are pandemics every 30 years or so. We are now overdue. Personally, I don't think we are doing enough to prepare. It will cost a lot more once it has begun, and once it has finished, and I'm not talking just $$. How foolish for those to think we are doing too much. Please read the history books, and get all the facts from then and now. Remember, it's not 'if', but 'when'... Thank you.

Kyle,

I disagree with your point. Being enclosed is only part of the solution to prevent H5N1 introduction into our commercial poultry flocks. If an infected duck or goose lands on a chicken farm, it can spread the virus indirectly to the birds by human contact of virus (feces on boot, feces in feed brought into the house and many other fomites), and introducing it to the chickens. The possibilities are endless. US poultry farmers should "shower in" and "shower out" of their flock facilities, and restrict passage of suspect materials to chickens to reduce the risk of transmission. Many swine farms use showering as a means of biosecurity to prevent pathogen transmission. Although the US does not have as many "free range" or backyard flocks as European countries, we actually employ much less biosecurity measures to prevent flock to flock spread of diseases between poultry houses than our European counterparts. When H5N1 makes it to USA, I suspect farmers will quickly adhere to greater biosecurity measures.

Turn off the sitcoms and get real. Pandemics happen. We'll be living as our ancestors did in the 1800's. They made it and so will we. Your denial won't influence the mutation of this virus

Eileen,

First off, chickens are immunologically naive to H5 viruses, which explains their exquisite sensitivity to this class of viruses - they are not immune deficient. Your statement implies that current methods to raise large numbers of chickens is making them immune deficient and susceptible to H5N1. This is false.

Secondly, H5N1 is unlikely to be introduced to the US by Asian imports containing infected chickens or eggs - the virus kills them to quickly! Infected birds would be dead by the time they arrived. In fact, experimental infection of chickens with H5N1 prodces 100% mortality within 2-3 days. Decomposition of the carcass would also degrade the virus. More traditional farming methods may be of benefit to some species, but placing immunologically naive chickens outdoors to mingle with migratory waterfowl is a recipe for disaster.

The most likely scenario is migratory waterfowl infected with H5N1 infecting US poultry.

Some of the comments on here about this issue being "hype" are showing a lethal amount of ignorance. Why are people concerned about avian flu? Because MANY MILLIONS of people in the US alone WILL DIE if the H5N1 virus starts spreading human to human efficiently like the seasonal flu does. Unlike the normal seasonal flu, however, over 50% of human victims of avian flu DIE and most of them are young people. This has happened before (1918). Our new medical advances in 2006 will make little difference on mortality. Please get over this frame of mind that it is all hype. Open up your mind to the possibility that there is something you don't know everything about...and read up on this topic. It's important.

No. Not a hype. I am reading "The Great Influenza The epic story of the deadliest plague in history" right now

If they've just started the fall season for the fowl in terms of migrating, why is the attitude of the article one of "well, it's been a waste of time, nothing's been found?" It's just the beginning of the season!
Also, I don't really think the main worry for the US is the migrating fowl, it's the situation going on in Asia with the widespread epidemic in their chickens. I think the influenza virus will make the jump there to human to human tranmission and THAT's how we're going to have a pandemic on our hands. It will quickly spread like wildfire through the densely packed cities, by airlines, boats, trains and auto's over the face of the earth.
To say you're tired of the media hype of this is to be completely niave of the the situation. The media hasn't been doing enough to prepare our communities for this, more should be done to stress to everyone in every community the urgent need to be prepared for a pandemic - or ANY disaster that may hit us.

Our health and hygiene have nothing to do with it.

If the virus mutates to become more easily transmitted from person to person (we see mutation now in Asia) all it will take is for one person who is infected but not yet showing symptoms to get on a plane and fly to any city in the U.S.

No one has immunity to this virus, and the death rate is over 50%.

How do you think good hygiene would impact this situation?

(Our population isn't so healthy. Many of us are obese, hypertensive or diabetic.)

The Avian Influenza threat is not hype.

Those whom chose not to heed history are destined to relive it. In this case it will come weather we test or not. Migratory birds should be making it present in north America within the next 60-90 days. Flu's are nothing new to us, they kill many each year here and abroad regardless of hygiene. The pandemic of 1918 was devastating to Europe and the world, it may even have shortened WW1. That haven't been said the data suggests that this flu strain is much more lethal than that of 1918 when transmitted and it leaves it remaining victims even more incapacitated from side effects

There is a bigger bird in the sky that has the potential to carry this virus that has originated in Asia and now has spread to OVER 50 Countries ... the airplane. Migratory birds have the potential to carry this H5N1 virus to other bird flocks via 'natural' means while the increased travel of our population via the airlines may very well be the route the human to human transfer of this virus takes place. The threat of this virus spreading increases with every human that is currently getting it from their immediate contact with the infected birds, in Asia. Each human illness draws us a step closer to the the virus changing to a more spreadable form. EVERY houshold possible, should be preparing their homes with enough food, water and necessary medications to get through a possible temporary 'sheltering in place'period within their homes when/if this virus does go 'human to human'. Our various governmental departments such as the Center for Disease Control (CDC), Health and Human Services (HHS), Center for Infectious Disease Research (CIDRAP)and the World Health Organization (WHO) have been spending unusal amounts of time in organizing informational 'Pandemic' websites and participating in interviews and summits. These are red flags, indicating there is more looming on the horizon than the current media has actually informed the public. MORE media coverage is needed! MORE information regarding what household members need to be getting & doing for this possible sheltering in place. QUOTES: Michael Leavitt, Secretary(HHS) 'Any comunity that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal givernment will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong'. Dr. Michael Osterholm,Director (CIDRAP), Jully 14, 2006: 'This is the one topic that keeps me up at night.' Robert G. Webster, St. Jude Children's Research Hsptl: I personally believe it will happen and make personal preparations'. Still think it's hype???

Why would the government of the u.s., specifically HHS and the CDC, come out and tell us to stockpile food and water for avian flu if they did not deem it a real threat? Why water? They must feel that our water supply would be at risk, indicating that experts informing the feds seem to think the disruption in supply lines and utilities predicted is a good possibility. Things would have to get REALLY bad for our country to no longer have runnning water - but obviously they think it could happen. It is predicted that 40% of the U.S. workforce won't show up for work when Avian flu is human to huamn in the U.S. Who could not take this seriously enough to at least educate yourself on it? Isn't the health and safety of your family important enough to find out your state's pandemic plan (I'm sure they have one, as state governments see the threat as well). Why would big companies be planning for such a pandemic if they hadn't researched this possibility and decided that it were a worthwhile investment? PLease, everyone, get your heads out of the sand, research this on your own state and federal government websites, do not rely on the mass media for your information. Research bird flu and business, and you will see major corporations planning for this. They have minds and research teams. They have money and a profit motive. Why would they spend big bucks on something their data says isn't gonna happen? Dig deeper and protect your family's future by preparing for this event. ANd then keep your fingers crossed that the world can dodge this bullet. Remember Katrina - if the bird flu happens, that scene will be every town and city in america. The government has come out and said that they cannot help you if avian flu hits. I'd be concerned about that.

I have been watching the Avian Influenza virus since last October. Since the beginning of this year it has marched through 53 countries. No, there aren't millions dying from this, just enough to make me feel like it is a threat to the future when it mutates to becomes easily transmissable like our seasonal flu. (our seasonal flu is the direct decendant of the 1918 pandemic, by the way)
The U.S. Government has spent Billions of $$ in tracking and preventive measures as well as informing the general public that it is a personal responsiblity to prepare for one self and family because the Government will be unable to help everyone when it arrives. I like eating and since it is something I must do anyway, I am putting away extra food and water, best case scenario is I don't have to shop for a good while and have paid today's food prices to eat tomorrow, worst case scenario, my family might have to worry about illness, but not starvation when all services and supplies are interupted during this period. Be prepared or be prepared to pay the price for not being prepared.

What I am more concerned about is, 'Bush Flue' which is far more dangerous than bird flue. It starts with lies to convince the public that a threat of bodily harm exists when in in fact it doesn't. It then results in military action where thousands of innocent soldiers and civilians are killed and crippled by wounds. Lies are then told to keep on killing and keep on rewarding Bush supporters with war contracts. If anyone dare protest, they are called un patriotic, and appeasers. The insurgents are labeled facist and their leaders are like Hitler. The only vacine for 'Bush Flue' is to throw this Administrtion and its supporters in Congress out!

At the moment the bird flu threat is underblown as the media has been ignoring all the Indonesians that are being quarantined with bird flu symtoms. It is like it has been dropped from the media radar. This makes bird flu doubly dangerous as people have become complacent. Even the people I had conviced 6 months ago don't see it as a threat.If this does go pandemic, I surely hope the media will take the responsibility of informing the public--even if the Feds don't want it known due to the economy.

This is a real threat. Education and preparation will be very important world-wide. Regardless whether the avian flu is the next pandemic or not, pandemics happen. We are well overdue.

It will come...we will survive, but may God help us when it does.