Throwing in the Towel in Pakistan

October 02, 2007 12:40 PM

Gretchen Peters Reports:

Throwinginthe_mn As a widening political crisis distracts President Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan's army appears to be folding in the face of a mushrooming Taliban insurgency sweeping down from the Afghan border, diplomats and Western military officials say.

"I am very concerned that they are sort of throwing in the towel because it's something the people don't support and since Musharraf is also on the ropes," a Western military official told ABC News.

A series of deadly attacks that have killed hundreds of Pakistani troops this year and the abduction of more than 200 soldiers in the volatile Waziristan district have convinced longtime observers that the military lacks clear direction from the top.

Foreign governments, including the U.S., Britain and other European nations that have suffered terrorist attacks on their soil, are particularly concerned President Musharraf has lost focus, amid a widening political crisis and his struggle to remain in power, diplomats say.

This week, the U.S. government pledged $750 million in USAID development funds to the tribal areas over the next five years. In addition, U.S. and U.K. troops will retrain the Frontier Corps, an ethnically Pashtun paramilitary force, in counterinsurgency tactics, Western military officials say.

Pakistan has stationed some 80,000 troops from the predominantly Punjabi army in the tribal areas, a Pashtun region.

"The Pakistan Army has always been the wrong force to use there," say military officials. "They don't speak the language. They are not trained to do counterinsurgency."

In the wake of stinging recent defeats for the Pakistan Army in the tribal areas, some Western officials fear the Pakistan Army will simply withdraw its Punjabi troops before the new Pashtun force can be properly trained.

"I am worried they will use this as an excuse to dump out fast and that will leave a vacuum," said a Western military officer.

The only solution to the areas seemingly intractable problems will be a strong counterinsurgency effort coupled with massive development programs to turn the local people away from the insurgents, officials say.

"We are not doing so hot now, but we are not failing," said one Western official. "This is going to take years and years, and it won't be easy."

A CIA report released in July said al Qaeda has regrouped in the lawless tribal areas and may be plotting further strikes against the West. European police say they recently prevented an ambitious al Qaeda plot to plant car bombs at U.S. military installations in Germany.

"We are worried that they are not doing and putting in enough to solve this problem on their end," said a Western official.

Recent high-level delegates -- including U.S. Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte who visited in September – pressed the Pakistanis privately on this issue, says the official.

Today, Musharraf appointed his trusted deputy and former spy chief, Lt. Gen. Ashfaq Kiani, as vice chief of the Pakistan Army. Musharraf has pledged to step down as army chief if he gets re-elected president in a vote Saturday. Kiani would then assume the powerful role of army chief.

Analysts and Western officials have praised his appointment, describing Kiani as a dependable, competent commander who will support the U.S.-led war on terror. Washington has stepped up its support for Pakistan's efforts in the tribal belt that hugs the Afghan border, an area seething with Taliban and al Qaeda militants.

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October 2, 2007 | Permalink | User Comments (18)

User Comments

That pesky little Musharraf and that Maliki guy have not done their job very well have they? Now bushbaby and cheeny are just the be all and end all of modern efficiency and they are not going to stand around while these 2 guys make them look bad. Film at eleven...back to you DOUG...

Posted by: daddy | Oct 2, 2007 1:27:28 PM

They have bin Laden and the bomb, but they do not have oil, so who cares?

Posted by: kbbpll | Oct 2, 2007 2:14:51 PM

Does noone realise that Musharraf is trying? The whole country seems to be against him and the west, so it's no wonder he is losing support. He has a very hard line to tread. Although we would like him to do more, it seems that his own people are against him so what more can he do? I think he will have to go into exile or face the risk of being killed by some extremist! Shame, i think he tried.

Posted by: steve | Oct 2, 2007 2:21:07 PM

I thought we had Bin Laden and the Taliban on the run. Great job Bush. The war on terror was a sham to get oil from Iraq. If he was serious about getting Bin Laden he wouldn't have outsourced the job to the Pakistanis.

Posted by: JT | Oct 2, 2007 2:29:35 PM

Certainly removal of Saddam was a good thing and if(big) the gov. honestly believed he had weapons, then we were correct. That said, the occupation is draining resourses and I hope we get tougher on the taliban or we face real difficulties in our fight against Al Qaeda. Liberals had better start thinking about a much stronger military action because we cannot afford to go soft as we did under Clinton I.

Posted by: rockychance | Oct 2, 2007 2:34:02 PM

The Taliban will also conquer Iraq, and Afghanistan, because Americans and Europeans no longer have the guts to win long bloody wars.

Posted by: RedMoons | Oct 2, 2007 2:46:26 PM

It has nothing to do with us not having the guts. We shouldnt be over there period! I am a former US Marine but, take my word for it I wouldn't know anything about military operations! Its important that we get the hell out of there. Its about spreading this EMPIRE at the expense of the surfs... oops I meant citizens! Keep those blinders on Redmoons "PAY NO ATTENTION TO THE CORRUPT BANKERS AND POLITICAL ELITIST MASTERMINDS BEHIND THE CURTAIN!" They tricked us and we need to face it! 911 was an inside job just like tonkin gulf was initiated by America! RON PAUL FOR PRES!!!

Posted by: Jeremy | Oct 2, 2007 3:43:18 PM

Oh - this is great! The Pakistani army didn't take many casualties up in the mountains before they decided to give up fighting the Taliban. Now the army might fall apart? I believe that army is so infiltrated by extremist Muslims that we really cannot depend on them to vigorously fight the Taliban or al Qaeda. Once the army falls apart, we ought to carpet bomb the mountainous border between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Anybody up there is pro-Taliban and visciously anti-American

Posted by: BOb | Oct 2, 2007 3:55:40 PM

BOb, you seem to know little of history. Musharraf and the Pakistanis actually supported the Taliban Regime in Afghanistan before the US invaded. Don't expect Pakistan to be enthusiastic about fighting Bush's Other Dismal Failure War.

Posted by: TomBob | Oct 2, 2007 4:19:00 PM

The Clinton administration was supportive of the Taliban until 1995 or so, tombob...

Posted by: Jazz | Oct 2, 2007 5:29:58 PM

Both the US. and Pakistan, do not want Bin ladin, the Governments of the world need this freak free, So we can be Terrorized by, him, his organization, and the Governments of the world. it's that simple. We must keep our pressure on to capture Bin-ladin, as long as he is free the Taliban and Al-Qaeda will think they are winning. I think we the people should establish a private reward program to capture Bin-ladin, maybe we can get our own Terrorist's to capture him like Black Water.

Posted by: Adeeb N. | Oct 3, 2007 12:55:11 AM

The thing we have to realise is, are we safer now than before 9-11 thanks to Bush? In my opinion no. Iraq, afghanistan,and now pakistan are now likely to become run by the taliban, whereas before, iraq was contained, and pakistan was relatively stable. Now the extremists seem to have more support, also they might win in Lebanon too! Well done bush - there wil now be more training camps in more countries than before!

Posted by: steve | Oct 3, 2007 10:14:34 AM

Don't overestimate the resurgence of the Taliban and Al Qaida. Radical Islam is acting violentily out of desperation. You won't hear about this in the news but Islam is losing millions of followers every year to Christianity, especially in muslim parts of Africa. They are using violence to keep the weak and fearful in check. As there numbers fall, they have to use fear to keep control. In a few years you'll see the Taliban and Talibanized Pakistan brutalizing the general population. Then you'll hear about mass executions of the population who are accused of heresy by proclaiming Jesus or simply protesting the cruelty of the Taliban. Then the population will have had enough, call on the Americans and Europeans to return and kill the Taliban and weakened radical muslim governments off for good. Then democracy and Christianity will again take root in the Middle East and Central Asia as it is in parts of Africa today. Military force cannot solve today's problems there. It will have to be mass civil disobedience and protest of the general population to bring down these cruel regimes.

Posted by: Bill | Oct 3, 2007 10:44:59 AM

Bill, you got it all wrong. As millions of Christians are becoming Muslims, Bush and his supporters are trying to reawaken the Crusader mentality. They want to kill and plunder a large number of Muslims hoping for reaction from Muslim nations that would give them even more excuse to kill. Further they make false terror propaganda day and night so that those Christians who are about to become Muslim will refrain from it. They also claim that Muslims are abusive towards women so that Christian women, who are converting to Islam in droves, would stop converting. See how easy it is to makeup stories.
But, both of us agree that Military is not the solution. Bring the troops home and let the folks decide among themselves. OBL and Taliban are not the kind of superhuman our media is projecting them to be. Pakistan military is having trouble because it does not want to kill innocent people in the tribal area for the sake of chasing a phantom at the insistence of warmongering neo-cons.

Posted by: masmanz | Oct 3, 2007 4:45:00 PM

I honestly don't think Millions, of people are converting to islam. However i do believe alot of people are converting. Islam is a geat religon. If you studdied true islam, you will only find beauty. True islam is totally equal. and very much Democratic. In fact True Islam Mandates Democracy. True islam is the TIRD AND Final, chapter to relion, Islam encompasses Judaism, and Christianity. The western world is very, naive to understanding this fact. Islam is not a differant religon it is Judaism and Christianty now is that not, beautiful Fear not Islam check it out take an adventure.

Posted by: Adeeb N. | Oct 3, 2007 11:45:04 PM

I don't think we can exactly blame Bush for what is going on inside Pakistan. In one way of looking at it, this could actually be a sort of good news. Had we not gone into Afghanistan after 9/11, the Taliban would probably have defeated what was left of the Northern Alliance by now and would be in control of all of Pakistan. While this might at first seem like good news for the Pakistanis to have a Pashtun controlled Afghanistan, it wouldn't have taken long for the preaching for a global caliphate to have motivated the Taliban to attack Pakistan's government anyway. But in that scenario you have a much stronger Taliban with a much more established base of operations in Afghanistan.

What we have now is a Taliban that has been hammered in Afghanistan, many of it's top people are killed or captured and now they are attacking the government of Pakistan in a fight for their survival as an entity to be taken seriously. If they lose this fight, they are gone. This is a much better fight to be in than the one that would be going on had we not gone into Afghanistan post 9/11.

That said, I agree with the military officials. We aren't losing, but it is baby steps at this point. We might not see much major movement on this issue on the ground until next spring save a few pinpoint strikes when the opportunity arises. My guess is that things are going to wind down as people winter up in the region.

Posted by: crosspatch | Oct 4, 2007 12:03:48 AM

You say "Had we not gone into Afghanistan after 9/11, the Taliban would probably have defeated what was left of the Northern Alliance by now and would be in control of all of Pakistan." Perhaps you mean Afghanistan. Then, you claim they would have attacked Pakistan to establish a global Caliphate. This is a baseless claim. And, if you look at the relative size and Military prowess of the two countries it would be clear that this hypothesis is without any merit. Just another excuse of warmongers to send our troops all over the globe for chasing phantom threats. The more people we kill to continue this so called "war on terror" the more insurgents we generate, this has happened in Iraq and Afghanistan, and now it is happening in Waziristan and other tribal areas of Pakistan. The only way out is to bring our troops home and let those people sort things out among themselves.

Posted by: masmanz | Oct 4, 2007 11:52:23 PM

Sorry Adeeb The final religion first of all does sound kinda violent secondly Buddhism is the only philosophy that matters all others were invented to control the masses and all others are false. It is generally not forced on people but since you all have no problems forcing your religions allow me to enlighten you and check it out while we spiral through this circle of hate you all create.

Posted by: Michael | Oct 22, 2007 1:32:41 PM

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