The Note, 12/03/08: New Hopes

December 03, 2008 8:25 AM

By Rick Klein with Hope Ditto

Fresh from the glow of their historic electoral sweep, Democrats are getting a glimpse of their own limits.

President-elect Barack Obama’s pull wasn’t enough to bring out voters in Georgia one more time, for one more Senate seat. On the Hill, Democratic leaders are retooling a political jalopy -- an unpopular measure, designed to boost unpopular companies, that might work as well as the electric car (photo-op road trips in hybrids notwithstanding).

A pitch-perfect transition is showing some signs of strain, with Latino groups not satisfied if Bill Richardson (getting tapped for Commerce Wednesday) is the only Latino in the Cabinet. (Quick -- which ethnic group would Democrats most like to lock down long-term after last month’s election?) 

And former Gov. Jeb Bush, R-Fla., is putting himself in the mix for an unexpectedly open Senate seat in 2010.

“I am going to think about it for the next month or so,” the former governor e-mails The Note.

Suddenly, it’s not a terrible time to be a Republican.

For starters, the GOP has its bulwark: There will not be 60 members of the Senate Democratic caucus (and there probably won’t be 59, either). 

It was a blowout in Georgia, as Sen. Saxby Chambliss, R-Ga., coasted over Democrat Jim Martin: “Democrats who turned out last month in enthusiastic support of Barack Obama apparently did not show up at the polls on Tuesday,” Robbie Brown and Carl Hulse write for The New York Times. “Mr. Chambliss’s victory ends at least for this year the Democratic push to reach the 60-vote milestone, though the party is holding out hope that a victory in the continuing Minnesota recount will give them 59 seats in the Senate.”

Surprise -- the Obama effect just may not be the same without Barack Obama on the ballot, or without Obama himself campaigning in person for a candidate: “Chambliss’s margin of victory looks to exceed almost all runoff polling on the race, suggesting that the turnout models used in the polling overshot Democratic turnout without President-elect Obama on the ballot,” The Hill’s Aaron Blake reports.

“Republicans still know how to win an election,” said RNC Chairman Mike Duncan. 

“Republicans could take some solace in the fact that Georgia once again would represent the beginning of a comeback,” said Sen. Jon Kyl, R-Ariz. 

Let’s not get carried away -- but for a demoralized party that’s looking for something to build on, this might represent something. At the very least, it guarantees that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell will be the most powerful Republican in the nation for at least the next two years.

(And now that 60 is out of the question, what will the appetite be for a prolonged fight over No. 59?)

As for Obama’s role in Georgia, history will record a careful play: “Obama tip-toed into the race, but never became fully involved. He recorded a radio ad for Martin and an automated ‘robo’ call, but declined an invitation to come to Georgia and campaign for his fellow Democrat. Many of his campaign volunteers came to Georgia to help the Martin effort,” Jim Tharpe writes in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

Turning to the auto bailout -- still a more than decent chance this spills well into next year.

“President-elect Barack Obama's administration-in-waiting is quietly exploring options for negotiating a bailout of the ailing auto industry when the Democrat takes office in January,” Time’s Jay Newton-Small reports. “While no one is ruling out the possibility of Congress appropriating money next week, a senior Obama aide told TIME, there is a sense that a comprehensive solution is unlikely to come from whatever legislative action Congress may take before the end of the year.”

It’s looking like one more try in a lame-duck Congress: “There are no legislative details and he has not yet read through the Big Three proposals or heard the auto CEOs' collective mea culpa later this week, but Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said today he will put an auto industry rescue package (details tbd) on the Senate floor next Monday,” per ABC’s Z. Byron Wolf. 

“Differences remain with the White House over how to finance any bailout. But the speaker said she had discussed the issue with President Bush Monday, and sent a letter to House members Tuesday evening, laying the groundwork for calling Congress back next week,” per Politico’s David Rogers. “For both Pelosi and the White House, much depends still on Senate and House committee hearings Thursday and Friday.” 

“The Bush administration and Democratic leaders are at a stalemate over where the money would come from, and some Republicans still believe letting the automakers file for bankruptcy is a better option than sending taxpayer dollars their way in a troubled economy,” The Hill’s Silla Brush reports. 

It won’t be pretty: “Government leaders know that if they provide a bailout without wringing sufficient concessions from all of the parties, they will be publicly vilified and punished in the next election,” Steven Pearlstein writes in his Wall Street Journal column. “In truth, there's not much doubt that the government is going to step in here, just as it has done with the financial system. The consequences of doing nothing -- for the economy, for government revenue, for the political and social fabric -- are just too great. The only questions concern the size of the bailout and what form it will take.” 

Among the possibilities: “The urgent call for help comes as lawmakers have begun reaching out to Wall Street experts to explore how the government could help the companies prepare bankruptcy filings that would take them in and out of Chapter 11 protection quickly, with much of the financing and other restructuring measures worked out with creditors in advance, people familiar with the matter said,” The Wall Street Journal reports. “In the past several days, congressional representatives have met with bankers and bankruptcy experts to discuss the possibility of a so-called prearranged bankruptcy for either GM or Chrysler.” 

“The automakers' plans will be reviewed during Congressional hearings on Thursday and Friday and their performance and the taste it leaves could determine if lawmakers can pass legislation when they return to Capitol Hill next week,” ABC’s Alice Gomstyn, Jonathan Karl and Z. Byron Wolf report. 

Anyone spy a GOP opportunity? “Republicans can begin to regain their reputation as guardians of the taxpayers and smart stewards of the economy by following Nancy Reagan’s advice: just say no,” Jennifer Rubin blogs.   

Beyond the bailout, quick action planned for January on the Hill: “Democratic congressional leaders, eager to trumpet that change has come to Washington, are looking to enact quickly a series of popular bills in January in such areas as renewable energy, children's health care and embryonic stem-cell research,” The Wall Street Journal’s Naftali Bendavid reports.

“The top priority remains an economic stimulus package. But Democrats also want to tackle rapidly an array of bills they consider ‘low-hanging fruit,’ ” Bendavid writes. “The goal is to send a message to voters that Democrats have delivered on the change they promised.”

One piece of action that won’t happen: “President-elect Barack Obama has quietly shelved a proposal to slap oil and natural gas companies with a new windfall profits tax,” David Ivanovich writes for the Houston Chronicle. “An aide for the transition team acknowledged the policy shift Tuesday, after a small-business group discovered the proposal -- touted throughout much of the campaign -- had been dropped from the incoming administration’s Web site.” 

On tap Wednesday in transition-land: an 11:40 am ET press conference in Chicago, where Gov. Bill Richardson, D-N.M., will be introduced as Obama’s nominee for Secretary of Commerce.

“Richardson made no secret of his desire to return to Washington after Obama's election, as he was entering his seventh year as governor,” The Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza writes. “He is the first Hispanic to be selected for Obama's Cabinet. Should Richardson be confirmed as commerce secretary, New Mexico Lt. Gov. Diane Denish (D) would take over as the state's chief executive until Richardson's term runs out in two years.” 

ABC’s Jake Tapper: “This brings to three the total number of primary opponents Mr. Obama has officially moved to put in his cabinet, including Vice President-elect Biden and Secretary of State nominee Hillary Clinton.”

Cue the tensions: “Bill Richardson’s nomination as Commerce secretary won’t satisfy top Latino lawmakers, who sent President-elect Barack Obama’s transition office a letter yesterday afternoon recommending a slate of 14 Hispanics for the remaining eight Cabinet slots,” Bloomberg’s Hans Nichols writes. 

As for Hillary -- there wasn’t a chance this would be easy, was there?

“Senate Democrats were working Tuesday to put together legislation making it possible for Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton to become secretary of state despite a constitutional clause that some critics argue should bar her from joining the cabinet,” Peter Baker reports for The New York Times. “The issue may seem esoteric but it generated attention Tuesday among legal scholars and bloggers arguing over whether it would be unconstitutional for Mrs. Clinton to serve as President-elect Barack Obama’s secretary of state because the salary for her new office was increased while she served in the Senate.”

Assuming it works out (safe bet): “Clinton’s planned ascension to Foggy Bottom is the culmination of a strenuous effort over the past several months to fashion a next act in a career that long has been defined by two distinct halves: flamboyant celebrity on one side and dogged, often lonely, distance runner on the other,” John F. Harris and Glenn Thrush write for Politico. 

Joe Biden’s day, per the transition office: “Vice President-elect Biden will be in Washington D.C. for a briefing by the Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism, led by former Senators Bob Graham of Florida and Jim Talent of Missouri. The Vice President-elect will be joined at the meeting by Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano, who President-elect Obama announced on Monday will be nominated as Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security.”

And -- Senator Bush? The retirement of Sen. Mel Martinez, R-Fla., means an open seat for the GOP to defend in 2010 -- but may give the party a better chance to hold on to it. 

“I am considering it,” Jeb Bush e-mails Politico, Carol E. Lee and Jonathan Martin report.

“Bush allies say he is seriously considering it, despite his image as hard-charging executive rather than compromising legislator,” Adam C. Smith writes in the St. Petersburg Times. “He remains focused on the important policy issues facing our country in these challenging times, chiefly education reform,” a Bush spokeswoman said. “Gov. Bush hopes to play a constructive role in the future of the party, advocating ideas and policies to get the conservative cause back on track.” 

“An affirmative decision from Bush would likely clear the field of Republican, if not Democratic, candidates,” Michael C. Bender reports for the Palm Beach Post.

Keeping up the fight, in Minnesota: “Franken unexpectedly picked up 37 votes due to a combined machine malfunction and human error on Election Day that left 171 Maplewood ballots safe, secure but uncounted until Tuesday's final day of recounting in Ramsey County,” Mike Kaszuba and Curt Brown write for the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. “By the end of Tuesday, with 93 percent of the total vote recounted, the Republican's lead stood at 303 votes with the state Canvassing Board set to finalize results Dec. 16. More than 6,000 ballots have been challenged by the two campaigns, with Coleman challenging 183 more than Franken.” 

“The day's other news -- which Franken's campaign quickly described as a ‘breakthrough’ -- came when [Secretary of State Mark] Ritchie's office asked local election officials to examine an estimated 12,000 rejected absentee ballots and determine whether their rejection fell under one of four reasons for rejection defined in state law,” they write.

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