Independents’ Day: GOP has high expectations, but indie energy may rule

November 03, 2009 8:15 AM

ABC News’ Rick Klein reports:

In the push-pull between Democrats and Republicans, it's a day for none of the above.

On an Election Day that will provide limited data -- and that the GOP looks likely to celebrate, while Democrats tell us to look elsewhere -- there's a surfeit of evidence that independents are the powerbrokers of American politics.

A third-party candidate may win a congressional seat in upstate New York. Another might swing a governor's race in New Jersey.

Virginia appears poised to elect a Republican governor who's reached for the same middle President Obama counted on last year.

And in New York City, a Democrat-turned-Republican-turned-independent stands to win an unprecedented third term, mostly by being a good mayor (and who could spend more money than everyone else combined bragging about his lack of ideology).

2009's races could bring a clean GOP sweep. But it's being fueled by indie energy that's as unaligned as it is unwieldy and unfocused.

Doug Hoffman's base of support in New York's 23rd congressional district doesn't look much like Mayor Michael Bloomberg's, or the one-time Obama voters who appear ready to bail on Democrats in Virginia.

The themes that unite the disparate races -- frustration and anger at government, angst over the economy's drift -- aren't the kinds of things that either party should celebrate.

Even a Republican sweep -- a very real possibility that could leave a very real mark on the president's agenda -- won't mean party salvation:

"Even if political winds start blowing harder behind them and even if they can capitalize on Democratic missteps, Republicans still will have a long way to go over the next year because of their party's own fundamental problems -- divisions over the path forward, the lack of a national leader and a shrinking base in a changing nation," the AP's Liz Sidoti writes. "In fact, 2009 seems to have underscored what may be the biggest impediment for Republicans — the war within their base."

Tuesday's contests will set some storylines in motion: "A Republican sweep in Tuesday's key contests would at minimum show that Democrats face much tougher political terrain than they did a year ago," The Wall Street Journal's Naftali Bendavid and Anton Troianovski report. "GOP victories would also help the party's fundraising and candidate recruitment for 2010, providing backing for arguments that Republicans have the momentum, and that voters are turning against the Obama agenda."

Even more immediate: "President Obama and his team are hoping to avoid going 0 for 3 on Election Day," ABC's David Chalian writes. "The most pressing immediate political impact of a shutout may be some tougher-to-woo moderate Democratic votes on health care reform precisely at the same time the White House is looking to get this major legislative priority signed into law and off the president's desk."

"Strong finishes by third-party candidates in New Jersey and a special congressional election in Upstate New York could signal voter discontent with both major parties and the nation's direction," USA Today's Susan Page writes. "In a show of concern, the White House dispatched Obama on Sunday to campaign in New Jersey and Vice President Biden on Monday to Upstate New York, where the congressional race has become a battle over the GOP's ideology."

And, of course, there's Sarah Palin, surely coming again to a Facebook page near you. (Can any other major politician as credibly celebrate a Hoffman victory, as part of a Republican sweep?)

The logistics for Election Day 2009:

Virginia: polls open 6 am ET- 7 pm ET
New Jersey: 6 am ET-8 pm ET
NY-23: 6 am ET-9 pm ET
New York City: 6 am ET-9 pm ET

The three big contests mark the first high-profile elections of the Obama era: "Election Day 2009 brings critical lessons about the state of the electorate, as well as the resiliency of the coalition that vaulted President Obama to the White House."

ABC's Gary Langer rounds up the numbers: "Is tomorrow's voting a referendum on Barack Obama? Pre-election data suggest that notion's a tough sell."

A timely look at where the energy has gone: "One year after winning the election, Mr. Obama has seen his pledge to transcend partisanship in Washington give way to the hardened realities of office. A campaign for the history books, filled with a sky-high sense of possibility for Mr. Obama not just among legions of loyal Democrats but also among converts from outside the party, has descended to an unfamiliar plateau for a president whose political rise was as rapid as it was charmed," Jeff Zeleny writes from Iowa, in The New York Times.

"Interviews with voters across Iowa offer a window into how the president's standing has leveled off, especially among the independents and Republicans who contributed not just to his margin of victory in the caucuses here but also to the optimism among his supporters that his election would be a break from standard-issue politics."

Arianna Huffington reads David Plouffe's new book as pitting Candidate Obama against President Obama: "How did the candidate who got into the race because he'd decided that ‘the core leadership had turned rotten' and that ‘the people were getting hosed' become the president who has decided that the American people can only have as much change as Olympia Snowe will allow?"

Al Gore won't play pundit -- at least not until after Election Day: "I'm one who strongly believes that the voters ought to decide this, and they're voting today -- God bless 'em," he told ABC's Diane Sawyer, on "Good Morning America" Tuesday.

Any chance of a return to politics? "I doubt that very seriously. I'm a recovering politician... I'm on about step nine now."

And should President Obama go to Copenhagen: "I hope that he does go. ...
He hasn't told me that he'll go, but I feel certain that he will."

As for Tuesday's races, how you bloviate depends on what you believe: "As a predictor of future elections, the Virginia and New Jersey races are unreliable. But as fillers of airtime and column inches, they are immensely valuable," The Washington Post's Dana Milbank writes. "This year, Democrats are determined to assert that the elections are not a referendum; this is because they expect to lose. Republicans, who expect to win, are pro-referendum."

Joe Scarborough's predicts a GOP sweep, at Huffington Post: "Virginia-- Bob McDonnell by 10+... New Jersey-- Chris Christie by 1...New York 23-- Doug Hoffman by 7."

The stakes, as outlined by Hoffman: "All along I've been fighting for the soul of the Republican Party, for the values and ideals that it stands for," he tells ABC's John Berman and Justin Anderson.

The tent, should only be so big: "Isn't that true in life in general?  There is always boundaries."

Why NY-23 is going to be the lead story, even if we'll forget about the winner as soon as he's sworn in:

"The triumph of conservative forces over the Republican Party establishment in upstate New York has emboldened like-minded activists around the country, and it could drive the GOP sharply to the right as it lines up candidates for the 2010 midterm congressional elections," the Los Angeles Times' Janet Hook writes. "The rebellion that drove a moderate Republican off the ballot in a special House election today is sending a clear message to the party leadership and its candidates: Ignore the conservative grass roots at your peril." 

"If Hoffman wins this, it will be like dropping a bomb into the center of the Republican caucus," said David Keene, head of the American Conservative Union

The search is already over for the next big battle: "We like Marco Rubio a lot. We think that Charlie Crist represents some of the same things that Dede Scozzafava represents," Club for Growth president Chris Chocola said on ABCNews.com's "Top Line" Monday.

"In what could be a nightmare scenario for Republican Party officials, conservative activists are gearing up to challenge leading GOP candidates in more than a dozen key House and Senate races in 2010," Politico's Charles Mahtesian and Alex Isenstadt report.

Most such battles will get worked out in primaries: "While it is true that there is a tactical split in the Republican Party, the circumstances in this contest are unusual -- and unlikely to be representative of a broader pattern," Time's Mark Halperin writes. "Still, there will be cases next year in which right-wing forces may be emboldened to support primary challenges to more moderate candidates, potentially dividing the GOP."

Vice President Joe Biden brings another reason to remember NY-23: "Sarah Palin thinks the answer to energy is ‘Drill, baby, drill,' " Biden said at a rally Monday. Then he leaned in to the microphone: "It's a lot more complicated, Sarah."

Countered Palin, via Facebook: "There's one way to tell Vice President Biden that we're tired of folks in Washington distorting our message and hampering our nation's progress: Hoffman, Baby, Hoffman!"

(Remind us who leads the GOP again? Top story in the Watertown Daily Times: "Biden backs Owens; says Limbaugh picked Hoffman.")

It's a tough race to build a movement on: "With the party sitting on the smallest minorities in Congress it's seen in years, the GOP will take good news anywhere, even if it comes with a hefty side order of crazy," Salon's Mike Madden writes.

In New Jersey -- hard to imagine a mandate, but a win is a win: "The outcome of the neck-and-neck race between Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine and Republican challenger Chris Christie hinges on how much of the vote is siphoned from the two candidates by third-party hopeful Chris Daggett. The latest survey shows Mr. Daggett could take as much as 12 percent of the vote," the Washington Times' Sarah Abruzzese and S.A. Miller report. "It would be enough to sink Mr. Christie, an unlikely front-runner in this solidly blue state."

Democrats' last-minute robocalls are pushing Daggett: "Will those calls -- plus the Democrats' field game -- be convincing enough to squeak it out for Corzine and save President Obama from having to explain a GOP sweep?" ABC's George Stephanopoulos reports. "I still have my doubts."

Dead heat: "An estimated 2.5 million voters are expected to go to the polls at the end of a race that both parties portrayed as a referendum on the popularity of President Obama, who visited the state three times to appear with Corzine," Cynthia Burton writes for the Philadelphia Inquirer.

"As they end their campaigns, Corzine and Christie are carrying the heavy weight of their political parties on their shoulders," per the Newark Star-Ledger. "President Obama and national Democrats are counting on Corzine to stave off a GOP sweep in New Jersey and Virginia. State Republicans are looking to Christie to end years of Trenton exile."

In Virginia, all but done: "By most accounts, Democrat R. Creigh Deeds faces a more difficult task than Republican Robert F. McDonnell in drawing out his party's base to vote. In recent surveys, McDonnell has polled well ahead of Deeds, as have McDonnell's two ticket mates, Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling and state Sen. Ken Cuccinelli II of Fairfax County, the Republican candidate for attorney general," Amy Gardner reports in The Washington Post.

What Virginia may ultimately mean: "The Republican Party stands to gain a new A-lister this week in Bob McDonnell, who ran his governor's race here with near-perfect temperament, focus, discipline and hair," Politics Daily's Jill Lawrence writes. "McDonnell has the opportunity to become a national player and a national candidate."

"For all the talk of Republican chaos and infighting in this off-year election, the GOP in Virginia seems to have found the formula for unifying its party and delivering a winning message," Time's Jay Newton-Small reports.

Another mayor up for reelection -- one who makes Bloomberg's third term look like the Red Sox to his Yankees: "Councilor at Large Michael F. Flaherty Jr.'s upstart campaign for change confronts Mayor Thomas M. Menino's vaunted political machine as voters go to the polls to decide whether to give the incumbent an unprecedented fifth term in office," The Boston Globe's Michael Levenson and Donovan Slack report.

Don't think what's going on out there doesn't impact what's going on here: "The health care bill headed for a vote in the House this week costs $1.2 trillion or more over a decade, according to numerous Democratic officials and figures contained in an analysis by congressional budget experts, far higher than the $900 billion cited by President Barack Obama as a price tag for his reform plan," the AP's David Espo reports.

All this ... for this? "The Congressional Budget Office says a version of the so-called public option backed by House Democrats would charge ‘somewhat higher' premiums than the average private insurance policy offered on a government-sponsored exchange to be set up to sell coverage to small businesses and individuals," Bloomberg's James Rowley reports.

One less obstacle? "Sen. Joe Lieberman has reached a private understanding with Majority Leader Harry Reid that he will not block a final vote on healthcare reform, according to two sources briefed on the matter," The Hill's Alexander Bolton reports.

Two less obstacles? "On Monday, [Sen. Roland] Burris was less than specific following a health care speech at Stroger Hospital when asked by reporters if he would vote for a proposal allowing states to opt out of the public option if enough competition exists among private health insurers," the Chicago Tribune's Hal Dardick reports. "Burris said he does not favor a bill that allows states to opt out of the public option, but he hedged when asked if he would vote for it."

Get the sense that this showdown can only be put off so long?

NPR's Julie Rovner: "As health overhaul bills head toward the House and Senate floors this month, the divisive issue of abortion is threatening to derail them. Already in the House, one anti-abortion lawmaker, Rep. Bart Stupak (D-MI), says he has enough votes to block the bill's consideration unless he is allowed to offer an amendment to strengthen language in the bill banning federal abortion funding. The issue is also causing headaches for the Catholic Church, where a long-standing opposition to abortion is running headlong into the church's equally long-standing support for a comprehensive health overhaul." 

New pressure from the left -- going out from MoveOn.org later in the day: "Today, MoveOn.org Political Action released new ads, direct mail, and in-state polls in an escalation of their campaign to press conservative Senate Democrats not to join with Republicans in blocking an up-or-down vote on health care reform. In Arkansas and Louisiana, MoveOn released new radio ads calling on Senators Lincoln and Landrieu not to stand with obstructionist Republicans to block an up-or-down vote on health care."

On Afghanistan -- loving the one you're stuck with:

ABC's Jake Tapper reports that with no run-off to contend with, President Obama could announce a new Afghanistan strategy "any day": "Is the White House ‘pleased' -- as President Obama said -- that Karzai was re-elected? Senior administration officials say they're pleased that the worst case scenario didn't happen and the process didn't collapse into a constitutional crisis. And they're pleased the process is over and they know who they have to deal with."

Tapper continues: "But as for their feelings about Karzai -- the president spoke to Karzai [Monday] and delivered a message you will hear in the coming weeks from the administration and the international community -- a new push for Karzai to reach objectives dealing with governance and anti-corruption."

"President Hamid Karzai's emergence as the victor by default cements the central dilemma facing President Obama as he decides whether to escalate the U.S. involvement in the war there," The Washington Post's Scott Wilson and Rajiv Chandrasekaran report. "Karzai's victory leaves in place a mercurial leader who has crossed administration officials in the past and whose record raises doubts about his willingness to take the steps necessary to reform his government."

Marking an era's end, with James Dobson's retirement: "The deaths of former Moral Majority chief Jerry Falwell and activist/televangelist D. James Kennedy in 2007 and of Moral Majority cofounder Paul Weyrich last year had lots of people talking about how the Christian right's founding fathers were literally disappearing," Dan Gilgoff writes in US News & World Report.

"But Friday's announcement that James Dobson is leaving Focus on the Family's daily radio show has much bigger political ramifications. Whereas Falwell and Kennedy had watched their power fade decades earlier and Weyrich was a behind-the-scenes Washington player rather than a cultural force, Dobson is still hugely influential among millions of Americans, particularly evangelicals. By leaving his radio show, Dobson is giving up his biggest platform.


The Kicker:

"It definitely may be." -- Jeri Thompson, wife of Fred, on whether Tuesday's elections are a referendum on President Obama.

"I believe we have more to fear from the potential of that bill passing than we do from any terrorist right now in any country." -- Rep. Virginia Foxx, R-N.C., making a play for the Joe Wilson-Alan Grayson trophy.


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