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Palin’s Polling Problem

November 16, 2009 11:48 AM

Klein_3ABC News’ Rick Klein reports:

If Sarah Palin is hoping that the media frenzy surrounding her new book will fuel a political comeback, some new numbers out today suggest how far back she'd be coming from.

According to the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, 3 out of 5 Americans say they think Palin, R-Alaska, is not qualified to be president. They're not saying they don't like her, or wouldn't support her; they're saying she's unqualified for the job.

Fifty-two percent say they view her unfavorably (34 percent say they "strongly" share that sentiment), while 43 percent have a favorable opinion.

Fifty-three percent say they definitely would not vote for Palin if she were to run for president in 2012.

ABC's polling director, Gary Langer, went back and checked a 2006 poll for similar feelings toward other contenders. Just 28 percent said they definitely wouldn't vote for Sen. John McCain in 2008, and 42 percent ruled out voting for Hillary Rodham Clinton.

The numbers hint at one of many reasons that this week's Palin craze isn't being universally embraced by Republicans.

Bad polls are a problem for Palin on two levels. First, should she decide to run for president in 2012, she'd do so with a solid majority saying they will not consider voting for her. Political makeovers only go so far.

Second -- and perhaps more troubling for Palin -- these numbers will fuel a media storyline that would probably haunt her campaign every step of the way: The question from the start would be, can she win?

Hillary Clinton faced that, to some extent, in her early days as frontrunner. But the impact could be worse for Palin: She would be part of a crowded primary field, and you betcha every other candidate could take aim at her vulnerability on this front.

November 16, 2009 in Gov. Sarah Palin | Permalink | Share | User Comments (26)

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I did not support Hillary Clinton in the Democrtatic primaries, because I was afraid not enough Independents would vote for her.

And Hillary was smart, articulate, and qualified. Ironic, isn't it?

PS. Hillary is an outstanding Secretary of State.

Posted by: Amy in Maine | Nov 16, 2009 12:09:31 PM

The prospects of Palin becoming the party's candidate, in 2012, are fairly low.

She might be an asset on the ticket, but not as the Presidential candidate.

My view is that the candidate will be someone not currently considered to be a front runner.

Posted by: Rick McDaniel | Nov 16, 2009 12:25:27 PM

on surface i would have to say that she is not qualified, but after seeing how unqualified our current president is she cant help but be qualified.

Posted by: catman | Nov 16, 2009 12:31:08 PM

Here are the key words:
According to the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, 3 out of 5 Americans say they think Palin, R-Alaska, is not qualified to be president.

These polls are always tilted towards
Democrats.

Posted by: jane | Nov 16, 2009 12:44:54 PM

Time will tell, and the media will not run her down. She is strong and it will backfire on the media.

Posted by: jane | Nov 16, 2009 12:47:49 PM

Maybe between now and 2012 she could get a little community organizing in. That should shore up her qualifications.

Posted by: Sue | Nov 16, 2009 12:52:15 PM

And Obama was qualified??? Wake up folks...he still isnt.

Posted by: angus | Nov 16, 2009 1:00:30 PM

Heck, 3 out of 5 voters today would
say Obama is "unqualified"....especially
since he has begun instituting his
"vision for America". I take that back.
They THINK it, but would never SAY it.

Posted by: grizzlybare | Nov 16, 2009 1:33:29 PM

The Republicans cannot, under any circumstances, allow her to run for president. Taking the position that obama was as unqualified as her is, dosent correct the bind obama has put us in. Remember the old saying "Your better off with the devil you know, than one you don't", would work for obama and aginst palin.

We require and will demand, a strong and direct hand, to correct the sunken economic policy of obama, not another round of let's try this approach.

Replacing a recoginized dud with a another potential dud, has to be out of the question.

There are great potential republican candidates that exist now at the state levels, who understand arithmatic, and value and believe in the principles, that amde this what it is and will always be "Example to the world", not some out of date system, that must embrace socialism, and accept second best, in the name of social conscience
and baloney schemes to spread the wealth.

Europe is used up and hurtling toward a
muslim society at the speed of light.

Posted by: KDL | Nov 16, 2009 1:40:15 PM

No matter how wonderful people think Sarah Palin is, would they vote for someone who has so many issues with veracity and her versions of history claims are so easily debunked?

Posted by: palmer | Nov 16, 2009 1:47:54 PM

Palin will not be the Republican party. I suspect she will run and be rejected. She will then blame it on sexism, the media, or something and then run as an Independent conservative. It's all about Sarah with Sarah...

Posted by: indy_voter | Nov 16, 2009 1:54:16 PM

I do not beleive ABC poll but I also do not know that why a lot people scare about Sarah will run 2012.The fear itself speak out her ability to run.I really admire the candidate who in the campaign dare to say the word "socialist" which point to the opposition. The confrontation lift up the truth and open up the trap and lure. This is the new wave of the campaign, hope so

Posted by: Bui Nga | Nov 16, 2009 2:18:11 PM

I hope Palin pulls a Perot and runs as a 3rd party Conservative party, Tea party, I don't care. Whatever she does I hope it ends out splitting the conservative vote.

Posted by: blue arkansan | Nov 16, 2009 2:37:50 PM

WOW!!! This is quite a LOOPY thread.

Posted by: bobj72 | Nov 16, 2009 2:48:07 PM

And Obama is qualified??????????

Posted by: Lizzie | Nov 16, 2009 3:57:44 PM

Lizzie

Harvard Law. Editor of Harvard Law Review. State Senator. Author of two books (without a ghost writer. Senator from Illinois. Beat the Clinton machine. Beat the Republican machine. Oh. yeah. He's qualified.

Posted by: Amy in Maine | Nov 16, 2009 4:18:52 PM

amy in maine...the voters were weak last november and it was a perfect storm qualified.by the way what were your mans grades at harvard? dont think anyone knows

Posted by: catman | Nov 16, 2009 4:22:42 PM

Did you see that Obama's book was written by Ayers? And that he wrote about himself when he was asked to write a book at the Harvard Review? And that he was a Senator in absentee form, that voted Present most of the time?
Compare that with Palin, who was in charge of the Alaska Oil Commission, took on the Repub heads and defeated them, became Mayor, then Governor, and then became Vice Presidential candidate. That far outweighs the two books, Senator in absence and Harvard Law, which we don't have any indication of grades or attendance at that school either, since no records are purposely available.

Posted by: Candy | Nov 16, 2009 4:33:42 PM

Candy

"became Mayor," (Of Wasilla? Not exactly Rudy Guiliani level,is it?) "then Governor," (for two years, afterwards she quit, cause she couldn't take the same difficulties every governor faces), "then Vice Presidential candidate" when a desperate McCain plucked her from obscurity because she was attractive and appealing to the base. The worst decision he could have made. I am so glad he is not President.

You're questioning what grades Obama got at Harvatrd? Really?

Posted by: Amy in Maine | Nov 16, 2009 5:00:29 PM

The decision to add Sarah Palin to the Republican 2008 ticket was a major factor in their failure, she pretty much ruined any chance McCain had of getting elected. It would be ludicrous for Republicans to even consider bringing a failed disaster back to the national ticket, for either President or Vice President. However, it would be terrific for Democrats if she was on the ticket in 2012, as it would be a relatively easy victory for Obama.

Posted by: Jacob C | Nov 16, 2009 5:03:21 PM

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