The Numbers

Gary,
The analysis is quite apt. But I think there is something missing here: race.

Single women are diverse but nevertheless disproportionately African American. I wonder how support for the candidates might differ had you first looked only at whites, and then only at blacks. My guess is that among whites, you'll find that the "unmarried gap" is very much reduced not only for the Hillary/Rudy horse race but for 00 and 04 exit polls too. (For a detailed look at the same phenomenon in the 70s and 80s, you can see my paper in the 1991 volume of Public Opinion Quarterly).

Eric Plutzer response to the ABC New analysis of unmarried women raises an interesting question, but also one that can be easily answered. While it is true that the greater racial diversity of unmarried women amplifies their propensity to vote Democratic, but it is also true that marital status transcends other demographic dynamics. According to network exit surveys, white unmarried women supported Kerry 55 – 44 percent over George Bush in 2004 and supported Democrats in the 2006 election by a 16-point margin. We see similar margins looking at other demographic groups, including groups that otherwise trend Republican, such as rural or southern voters.

Moreover, ABC news analysis suggesting that married women may be a more important “swing” target for the parties to fight over also misses an essential point. Demographically, unmarried women are a fast growing population. From 1960 to 2006, the percentage of the voting age population that was unmarried grew from 27 to 45 percent. Between the 2002 and 2006 elections, the growth rate of unmarried Americans was double that of married Americans.

a longer article we wrote about the unmarried cohort. In it, we describe unmarried women as the “Democratic evangelicals.” This appellation reflects both their relative loyalty—they provide similar margin for Democrats as evangelicals provide for Republicans—and their size. As a proportion of the electorate, and potential electorate, unmarried women outnumber every other Democratic base group, including people of color.

Hope you find it interesting.

David
Senior Associate

Gary, David,

I am sure there are many factors at play here. However you might consider an alternative view; that there is something deeper going on here that goes beyond the conventional mainstream statistical and demographic approach to cultural and social trends.

Cultural Creatives, a term coined by demographer Paul Ray seeks to explain an emerging demographic trend in thinking that was further fully exposed to the American mainstream in the 60s via the counter-cultural movement.

Ray claims that this is the fastest growing group in the USA and it is reflective of the desire to transcend labeling and grouping people based on superficial measures of difference such as sexuality, race, gender, income, etc.

The key is that a large group of women see this movement which is based on various progressive movements (environmentalism, feminism, new age spirituality, civil rights, etc) as key to real change in our society and their transcending of the male dominated social structure that still controls our mainstream society although more subtly than in the past.

Ray says there are three main demographics in our society:

1. Traditionalists who tend to be labeled as Social and Christian Conservatives.

2. Modernists who are very driven by conventional notions of progress such as economic growth and reflect mainstream secular cultural values as put forward by the media and the dominant institutions of society.

3. Cultural Creatives who tend to seek alternative perspectives on what is going on in the world. In particular they have serious concerns about the sustainability of the existing American Dream which tends to focus on material measures of success.

The growth in green business and socially conscious living is tied to this movement. Cultural Creatives seem to be more conscious about their position in society as a grouping than any of the other groups. They take pride in their ability to take a critical non-conventional view to politics and society. They also believe that this approach is vital to the continuation of American and even global democracy which they believe is under severe stress at this time due to the reliance that liberal democratic societies have on an extremely unsustainable socioeconomic model. Finally, Cultural Creatives have a very holistic way of seeing the problems of contemporary society - as well as the potential solutions.

Yet If I did a search of this blog, I doubt if I would find one word about it. I think these omissions may help explain why the mainstream media has not been able to provide the public with insightful information about what is really going on in the world. As with the war in Iraq, it is often too late when the mainstream realizes the facts that are needed for people to make informed decisions.

Cultural Creatives are very skeptical about how the mainstream operates as well as the quality of its content. They believe that the corporate control of the mainstream media, leads to a very incomplete and homogenized view of the world on the part of mainstream Americans.

Specifically here is the case that women are disproportionately represented and are taking leadership positions among Cultural Creatives. Given the evidence you presented above, this may be a possible factor causing unmarried young women to lean towards the Democrats.

Why?

1. Marriage makes people more conservative and the age factor. Traditionally it’s been a key factor in determining people's views.

2. Women are the largest historically exploited group with 50% of the potential group - much larger than blacks, Hispanics or homosexuals and they tend to be more distrustful of the established social structures than men who historically have dominated the establishment.

3. Marriage tends to be a factor that drives the shift towards more practical considerations such as raising a child, buying a house and considering conventional social mores. Thus married women are more susceptible to pressures to think more conservatively about the world. This is especially the case when such considerations improve their social status in the community and among their familial, professional and social networks.

Jeff