« December 2007 | Main | February 2008 »

Consumer Confidence and the Markets

Steep drops in the stock market historically have not had much short-term, direct influence on consumer confidence, for a simple reason: Most people simply haven’t seen market gyrations as having a lasting impact on their day-to-day personal finances. While it’s...

Continue reading "Consumer Confidence and the Markets"

January 22, 2008 in Economy | Permalink | User Comments (2)

Good Eating?

I'll take a little break from the political fray and the fallout over the New Hampshire polls (though we're not done with that!) to dig into public attitudes on a completely different issue - food from cloned animals, which was...

Continue reading "Good Eating?"

January 15, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (0)

The New Hampshire Polls: What We Know

(Note: This post was updated at 2 p.m. with a data point that came late to our attention.) Efforts so far to explain the New Hampshire poll meltdown amount to theories in search of data; we don’t yet have the...

Continue reading "The New Hampshire Polls: What We Know"

January 11, 2008 in 2008 Primaries, Polling Methods | Permalink | User Comments (25)

New Hampshire's Polling Fiasco

There will be a serious, critical look at the final pre-election polls in the Democratic presidential primary in New Hampshire; that is essential. It is simply unprecedented for so many polls to have been so wrong. We need to know...

Continue reading "New Hampshire's Polling Fiasco"

January 9, 2008 in 2008 Primaries, Polling Methods | Permalink | User Comments (887)

In New Hampshire, is it the Indies?

There’s a feature of the New Hampshire Democratic and Republican primaries that’s important to keep in mind as we look forward to tomorrow’s results: A lot of the voters aren’t Democrats or Republicans. They’re independents – Barack Obama and John...

Continue reading "In New Hampshire, is it the Indies?"

January 7, 2008 in 2008 Primaries | Permalink | User Comments (3)

Spin, or Something

A funny thing happened on the way to the Iowa caucuses. A good name for it is, well, spin. But there are other words that might fit even better. It happened Tuesday, after the Des Moines Register released its poll...

Continue reading "Spin, or Something"

January 4, 2008 in 2008 Primaries | Permalink | User Comments (12)

In Iowa, Somebody's Wrong

Looking at the final Iowa pre-election polls released the past week, one thing is clear: Some of ’em will have the wrong order of finish. In the Democratic race, four estimates have Hillary Clinton numerically ahead (albeit by as little...

Continue reading "In Iowa, Somebody's Wrong"

January 3, 2008 in 2008 Primaries | Permalink | User Comments (2)

IA and NH: A Quizzical Homage to Firstness

The turning of the New Year is a dandy time for us to pay quizzical homage to the upcoming Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primaries. Herein, a data-based effort to make some small sense of this quadrennial brouhaha. Fair warning:...

Continue reading "IA and NH: A Quizzical Homage to Firstness"

January 2, 2008 in 2008 Primaries | Permalink | User Comments (17)