The Numbers

Wow! how nice to see people have widely opened their eyes.

The way Obama has run his campaign, is the best evidence that he is ready to lead. Hillary is just running her own chances.

Mr Langer, you of all people should know that the lead in two of these polls is absurd, given that more than half of the nation has already voted and they are esentially tied in votes. Does that mean that Clinton is down by 32% in states that haven't voted or that these polls are entirely meaningless.

They are entirely meaningless. Sampling voters in states that have already voted for the nomination is absurd.

The nomination contest is a nomination contest, not American idol. You can't vote more than once, except Texas, and you cant count if you didnt vote the first time.

The polls should only be done of states that haven't voted with percentages adjusted for the results we already know.

The daily tracking polls are much more consistent.

The new national poll released by USA TODAY/GALLUP shows the match up McCain-Obama and McCain-Clinton is unchanged in more than a month:

13 January, 2008: McCain 50%-Obama 45% versus McCain 50%-Clinton 47%
24 February, 2008: McCain 48%-Obama 47% versus McCain 50%-Clinton 46%

Considering the importance of the March 4th primaries, Texas will be like California which poll of polls had Obama 44% and Clinton 42% on Super Tuesday.

The reason California voted 52% for Clinton and 42% for Obama even with Oprah, Caroline and Ted Kennedy campaigning for Obama, was because the turn out of white women (56% Clinton, 36% Obama) and Latinos (67% Clinton, 32% Obama) was outside of what most polls considered to calculate their predictions. In California, Barack Obama won the white men votes 55% to 35%.

Most Texas polls show African-Americans voting 80% for Obama while Latino voters who outnumber Black voters in Texas are voting close to 70% for Hillary Clinton.

CNN poll and other polls showing Clinton and Obama splitting white voters in Texas is good news for Hillary Clinton while Obama is unable to reach 45% of Latino voters in most polls, locally and nationally.

Texas is traditionally a state with high church attendance which favor Clinton. Gallup poll shows Hillary Clinton with 57% and Obama with 29% among white Democrats attending church weekly.

While most analysts are putting the pressure on Hillary Clinton to win, Barack Obama losing Texas will add to California, NY and Florida as big states where Obama is failing miserably to attract the huge percent of Latino voters.

270 ELECTORAL VOTES are needed to win a general election and CA, NY, FL and TX total 147 ELECTORAL VOTES which is 55% of 270 EV.

Along the lines of you can only vote once, regardless of what polls show now, Clinton leads by 6% among those who have already voted in Texas, and 22% among those who have already voted in Ohio.

In California, people got to vote once. With early voting in both these contests quite heavy, many recent state polls are also not accurate.

Again it's not American Idol. You don't get to phone in your vote as many times as you want or change it each week.

In fact the sampling of adults doesnt even require them to be citizens far less registered to vote. These polls are misleading to the point of being fraudulent. Why not just report internet polls?

Obama is master Opportunist. He definately know which weapon to use when and manipulate media, voters and Clintons for Presidency(Clintons were caught sleeping unfortunately).

1. Screamed racism in Black dominated region

2. Screaming NAFTA in the job crunch region.

Saying negative in a stylish way and making media does the free advertisement for him is a brilliant strategy.

Has anyone ever wondered how the polical power structure really works? It's two parties.. one dominant, one the underdog. The republicans dominate, while the democrats play the opposition. Did you ever wonder why the republican pollsters, corporate media, talking heads, and the like... are trumpeting Barak Obama? Here is my theory. Politics is a game, and long game at that. The repubs figure their chances at a presidency this time aren't good. And they fear Clinton the most, because she's more moderate, and would likely govern pragmatically, thus helping the dems establish some dominance. They can't have that. So they begin trumpeting Obama for two reasons. 1. He is more beatable and they actually have a chance to defeat him. 2. If he wins, he will likely govern too far to the left, conservatives in congress will block him at every turn, he's a novice, he won't know what he's doing. He'll be a disaster like Jimmy Carter. And that will put the repubs in the drivers seat in 2012. Remember, this is a long fight. Sure, it's a risk, it could backfire, but the odds are better that they will regain control in 12 with Obama than with Clinton.
Food for thought.

The lack of realiabilty of the polls are stunning. You have several polls released within 2-3 days without any major events and have 15-20% difference! This means that either our elctorate composed of moonies unable to make their mind and probably shouldn't even have a right to vote or that pollsters are unprofessional or biased in their approach. If you sample 500 people, and oversample or undersample of AA by 10 people you'll get 5% one way or another which would make 2% difference (i.e. instead of 50% to 50% it will be 52% to 48% and some polls make a big deal about such "changes"). Same thing about likely voters vs. general population (who cares about your opinion if you don't vote!), gender, age, income group whether you voted and changed your mind etc. It takes a significant part of mathematical/statistical analysis to best predict the population which will actually vote and sample it accurately. Now, if several polls gives 20-30% difference this will point to advantage of one of the candidate. Or if you sample heavily similar population, like Washington DC inner city or South Carolina, then you'll get a reasonalble results. But sampling of Texas and even Ohio are ridiculously difficult so people relying on it are fooling themself.

If Obama wins the election in November he will lose soundly in 2012. I want Obama to win and have successful term but there is still underline racism in this country. Yes we have made progress not to point Dr. King Dreamed of. I doubts if America will ever realized the Dream of Dr. King.

Michael, I love the comment, "Who cares about your opinion if you don't vote." Exactly! Except it needs to be added who cares about your oppinion if your state has already voted. That is what is clearly wrong with two ofthese polls and they should not even be reported on by reputable media, unless of course it's on purpose.

The republicans will be in the WH again in 2009 if these polls hold true. Obama can't beat the GOP rat machine.

The new Gallup daily tracking poll today is 46% Clinton, 46% Obama

The republicans will be in the WH again in 2009 if these polls hold true. Obama can't beat the GOP rat machine. SO TRUE

Great blog Gary. I came here from a link on Justin Webb's BBC News blog.

While the polls are a bit fidgety at the moment, I think you can draw one certain conclusion - that as time goes by Hillary's lead is decreasing.

Gallup tracking today shows them boh tied at 46%. Now which do you think is a more accurate reflection of the nomination race Mr. Langer. Keep in mind people can't vote twice, except in Texas.

Gary, I think your polling figures are bogus, to say the least. I do agree with those who say the GOP "rat machine" will kick Obama to the curb. Hillary? I don't think so. Sh has experienced---and survived---the rat machine. Plus, she's the only candidate who can do the job. It really is time to get real and nominate---and then elect---Hillary Clinton.

Great Blog Gary.Hillary has carried and continues to carry all the big states. I think its time people realize who conducts these polls, and what the motives are. I am so sick and tired of these polls that have proved to be inaccurate several times. The republicans have a much better chance of winning the White house with Obama. They will chew him up and eat him for breakfast. Obama thinks that the general election is going to be like the primaries, he needs to drink some more of his koolaid. Hillary 08!

Hillary’s starting to sharpen her attacks on Mr. Obama she really needs to cut into John McCain’s base. Latest polls suggest that Ms. Clinton is picking up support from:

Bigots

Fake Christians

High School Drop Outs

Women who hate man still seams to be her primary support, though they seem a little disillusion concerning her continued love for Mr. Clinton.

I can see why American movies are so often based on good guy/bad guy. Here we see this phenomenon fully unfolding in their politics. On the one hand the Democrats chose Obama who appears genuine, intelligent, inspirational and popular, all that you need to see in your leader : 'the good guy'. But then they don't go for another good guy. They chose Hillary Clinton who seems calculating, self interested, callous in her treatment of her friends and viciously ambtious. In other words they chose a 'bad guy' : Another great drama fulfilling the American never dying need for entertanment.

Personally I cannot understand how people would vote for Clinton.

Seriously, the woman is so false! I'm British, but I seriously feel that when Obama speaks the United States has a future on the world stage. What I feel they need is a fresh new start. Will Hillary deliver that? I think not!

I have an american passport, but have been educated in the UK and lived abroad all of my life. My interest in this campaign has been ignigted by Obama and I have found it a very interesting lesson in the complicated nature of the US voting system. It is truly mind-boggling to think that any reliance could be placed in such small samples for these polls. I certainly hope (audaciously?) that Obama can get the nomination, as I believe that he will do much much better than most people think against McCain; McCains adultery will come back to haunt him, doubts over his connections to lobbyists and the Iraq war are all areas of great vulnerability. If Obama does make it to he White house, what a fantastic message that will send to the rest of the world about the kind of country the US is, where a mixed race, first generation, immigrant from a single parent family can become president! If I don't fall into any of those categories and find it inspiring, is there not some small hope that the voters might just too?