The Numbers
A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer
Gary Langer is director of polling at ABC News, where he's covered the beat of public opinion for nearly 20 years - conducting and analyzing ABC News polls, evaluating data from other sources and setting the news division's standards for poll reporting. Langer has won two Emmy awards for ABC's reporting of public opinion polls in Iraq, and The Numbers blog was honored this year as winner of the 2008 Iowa Gallup Award for Excellent Journalism Using Polls.
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In the Democratic Race, Whither White Men
February 11, 2008 12:26 PM
Tomorrow’s primaries may present an opportunity to look at the preference of white men for Obama over Clinton in some contests. While far from consistent in primaries, it’s been an important factor in their support profiles: Where white men favor Obama, he's far likelier to win.
Mason Dixon’s polling has Obama winning 41 percent of whites in Virginia and 40 percent in Maryland; that’s essential to his overall lead in these two states, since in neither of them are African-Americans predicted to have a large enough share to carry Obama themselves (as in Louisiana on Saturday, and in some previous Southern states). That suggests Obama could win white men on Tuesday, as he has in seven of the 23 previous states for which we have data. (Clinton's won them in 11, and they've tied in five.)
In some states to date where Clinton has not won white men – California and Arizona – there’ve been enough Hispanics to make the difference for her. In some others (New Hampshire, Massachusetts) there have been few blacks, and enough white women to outweigh white men. But in states with significant but not vast numbers of black voters, and few Hispanics, white men are critical. Per the table below, Clinton’s won the primary in eight of the 11 states where she won white men, a 73 percent success rate; but in only four of the 12 where she didn’t win them, 33 percent.
When we look at issue preferences, we find white men generally less attuned to Clinton across a range of parameters. In aggregate data, white men have been 17 points less apt than white women to say Clinton would be the best commander-in-chief; 17 points less apt to call "experience" the most important attribute (it's a strong Clinton quality), 17 points less apt to say Clinton would do the most to unite the country and 14 percent less apt to call health care their top issue (also strong for Clinton).
Naturally, affinity voting plays a major role. White women are twice as apt as white men to call the sex of the candidate important in their vote, 35 percent to 17 percent. And white women who call the candidate's sex important have favored Clinton over Obama by a huge 78-17 percent margin; white men who call it important also have favored Clinton, but by a much closer margin, 54-35 percent.
Addendum: With thanks to Ron Brownstein of the National Journal, there’s a further point of differentiation here – the additional role of socioeconomic status. Education provides the clearest view: Combining all primaries to date, white men who’ve attended college have gone to Obama over Clinton by 51-38 percent, while white men without a degree have gone the other way – 52-31 percent for Clinton; he does 20 points better, she 14 points worse, among college educated white men vs. non-graduates. There’s a similar division among white women, albeit a little less pronounced – among those with college degrees, Obama is +14 points, Clinton -10, compared with those who haven’t earned a degree. There’s less of an education gap among nonwhites.
Table's below. One note – apart from Iowa and Nevada we have no data for caucuses; just primaries. Caucuses, with their very low turnout, can be something of a different animal.
Vote preference
among white men
Clinton Obama Edwards Winner
Clinton:
Arkansas 71% 24 Clinton
Alabama 70 27 Obama
New Jersey 58 39 Clinton
Tennessee 58 32 Clinton
Oklahoma 55 32 Clinton
Missouri 55 41 NA
Michigan 54 38* Clinton
New York 52 43 Clinton
Louisiana 51 31 Obama
Florida 45 27 25 Clinton
Nevada 46 40 10 Clinton
Tied:
Mass. 48 49 Clinton
Delaware 47 47 Obama
Arizona 46 45 Clinton
Georgia 46 48 Obama
S.C. 28 27 45 Obama
Obama:
Utah 29 64 Obama
Illinois 37 59 Obama
N.M. 38 59 NA
Conn. 40 57 Obama
Calif. 35 55 Clinton
N.H. 30 38 20 Clinton
Iowa 23 33 25 Obama
*uncommitted
February 11, 2008 in 2008 Primaries, Race | Permalink | User Comments (71)
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Where will all those white men go that did not vote for Obama? If half of them go McCain can we still win? My gut tells me we will be in Iraq for 100 years and we will have a new war with Iran. GOD help us.
Posted by: David | Feb 11, 2008 1:05:59 PM
I may be wrong . . . . but isn't Obama HALF-WHITE, as well as HALF-BLACK??????
Posted by: ithinkurstupid | Feb 11, 2008 1:54:34 PM
ithinkurstupid: PLEASE tell Obama THAT!
Posted by: A. Concerned Citizen | Feb 11, 2008 1:59:46 PM
Oprah will make billions when Obama becomes President. She rules NBC and MSNBC she makes people do what she wants. You have been even reading what she tells you. Just remember better Obama then McCain. Theres no other choice so live with it.
Posted by: Jack | Feb 11, 2008 2:12:04 PM
The media tells us it is Clinton or Obama that brings up race. However, all I see is the media bringing it up!!! Constantly writing about it throwing it in our face.
Posted by: TheDiplomat | Feb 11, 2008 2:37:16 PM
now, are we talking about 100% white men? or are we talking about 3/4% white men? or---are we talking about MIXED men, that are 1/2 white and 1/2 black?
Posted by: Illinois for Hillary | Feb 11, 2008 2:39:28 PM
Hey White Men! Here are the facts to chew on. Hillary has been to Iraq multiple times and met with military leaders in order to educate herself about the situation there. Obama has NEVER been there. Hillary is a leader who has the courage to vote Yes or No. Obama voted "Present" over and over again in Illinois. Leadership requires hands on education and experience AND the courage to make decisions.
Posted by: White Man Thinks | Feb 11, 2008 3:39:09 PM
White men can vote? Wow! When did that happen?
Posted by: jijalagi | Feb 11, 2008 4:19:14 PM
"Jack": There IS another choice---Mike Gravel!!! I & MANY OTHERS are voting for Gravel...DESPITE the fact that mainstream media never acknowledges him, he IS still running (he's currently considering an "Independant" ticket)!!! =) SPREAD THE WORD!!!
Posted by: jcamron | Feb 11, 2008 4:28:18 PM
Ps. I'm with YOU, "jcamron"!!! MIKE GRAVEL FOR PRESIDENT!!!!!
Posted by: Kim Donnelly | Feb 11, 2008 4:37:41 PM
Reading, too many questions of what, who, where, and when for OB. Not great qualifications to be Commander in Chief, the one who leads this nations safety. Republicans might not have a great record but they don't bring out the words OB does. Indians, white, black, latino, kkk, getto, etc...it is reality, but not suppose to be a factor, if your true to freedom. Tired of this through Obama's media hype. God bless America.
Posted by: callenfallen | Feb 11, 2008 6:15:17 PM
Dont expect white men to vote for Obama over Mc Cain. No matter what these ridiculous 'tapdanced' LIAR polls show.
Watch the polls DRAMATICALLY change the minuite Clinton has been OUSTED and now they can all switch their vote over to Mc Cain.
The media has GONE WAY TOO FAR in its psychological warfare against Clinton.
The headlines are beginning to write her off YET AGAIN.
Posted by: tom | Feb 11, 2008 6:33:28 PM
Hey Obama lovers.
Go look the name 'George Mc Govern' . You may find a PILE of similarities to the hype Obama is bringing compared to him.
Kinda the reason super delegates were created in the first place.
Posted by: tom | Feb 11, 2008 6:35:40 PM
The Winner section of the above table needs to be revised. It seems that some of those states (Calif. NH and a few others) should actually be listed for Obama. It is really questionable whether the information can at all be relied on.
Posted by: Maverick | Feb 11, 2008 7:07:27 PM
UNIVERSECREATOR: Obama HIMSELF, constantly speaks about different "groups" of people (HE'S the ONE that BEGAN all that kind of talk)! IN FACT, last time I checked out HIS OWN website, he actually had different "messages" for each different "group" of people!!!!! CHECK IT OUT FOR YOURSELF!!!!!
Posted by: truemaven | Feb 11, 2008 7:47:33 PM
White males have always matched minorities against each other to fight their fight. They look good, minorities look stupid. The only minorities they cannot manipulate are the asians because the asians are smarter than them and can always see through their games.
What are they doing now, they want to rid of a female. The female is white, christian with a famous name. Its harder to beat her. So they play the morons for now, making a play to the easy to target school-educated/brainwashed children, all that hype of the great black hope. Those people have not lived in South Los Angeles or Long Beach pier area where you can get mugged by a black dude at 12 noon.
So the white males are brainwashing the so called book-educated to get rid of the better opponent - Hillary.
Obama hasnt been attacked by GOP yet. THE GOP LIKES him FOR NOW, duh, why do you think?
IF he wins nomination, then the real enemy would step in. He wont last. Besides if Obama wins nom, the Latinos would vote McCain. See, thats why they want Obama. The Latinos would vote for Mccain, never Obama.
Mensan Asian Girl
Posted by: Liz Wetzel | Feb 11, 2008 8:11:16 PM
Race and Gender is playing a great role in this election. Only thing is white not voting for white but not in case of black. That's why obama is doing great.
Posted by: sb | Feb 11, 2008 8:37:39 PM
Some analysts and Obama supporters question Hillary Clinton electability among men. However, Hillary Clinton is getting more votes among men than John Kerry who lost the 2004 election by 11 points among men (55% for Bush, 44% for Kerry) while splitting the women votes (51% for Kerry, 48% for Bush).
Considering that during the general election more women vote than men (54% women, 46% men in 2004), Hillary Clinton votes among women should exceed the 54% that Al Gore received during the 2000 election, offsetting the usual advantage among men by a Republican candidate including John McCain. Democratic candidates Bill Clinton, Al Gore and John Kerry did not receive more than 38% of the votes among white men in 1996, 2000 and 2004.
Some polls on the Obama vs. McCain or Clinton vs. McCain may be wrong because they underestimate the big increase of women voters with Hillary Clinton as candidate.
Posted by: Angel | Feb 11, 2008 9:31:13 PM
The blacks are the racist in this election. Over 85% of the blacks will vote for Obama, simply because he is a black muslim, whom they can associate with. The Whites also vote for him, because they don't want to be perceived as racist. Any white who is racist will face saction or lose their jobs. So, it is great for the media to praise Obama, and would not dare to explore his NO ACCOMPLISHEMENT in his home state of Illinois. The WHITES are tired to be called racist if they critize Obama.
Posted by: tigerjcs | Feb 11, 2008 9:34:15 PM
Angel and David to name a few. How many white people have you voted for? Were you asked to explain yourself? I don't have to explain myself for voting for an intelligent, capable and charismatic individual who happens to look like me. You are sad, pathetic individuals holding on to an American that is vanishing before your eyes. American will NEVER again be what you want it to be thanks to Obama and the voters who have raised their hands and voices for him. Whether he wins or not, the noise you're making is nothing more than a tantrum of an unevolved mind wishing things would forever remain the same. Are you afraid that the scales are finally balanced and everyone gets a chance at the prize? Afterall -- what next -- a Hispanic President or VP? I hope I live long enough to see that happen as well. Time is marching on -- time to evolve.
Posted by: Diane | Feb 11, 2008 9:43:42 PM
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